Tonight at 8 PM ET, the clock runs out on the Iran deadline. While the crowd stares at crude oil tickers, I’m watching the structural plumbing of the AI economy.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shuttered for six weeks. This is not just an "oil story", it’s a stress test for the power-hungry infrastructure backing the AI revolution.
Here is my playbook for both sides of the coin:
SCENARIO A: Ceasefire
The energy relief: Brent likely slides from $109 toward $90. While the headlines focus on the pump, the real move is in AI infrastructure valuation.
Plays like $IREN, $NBIS, and $CIFR have been suppressed by a "macro energy tax." Even with fixed-rate power contracts, the market has discounted their growth due to volatility. A ceasefire removes the "power-panic" premium, potentially triggering an immediate re-rating of these stocks.
Heavyweights like $LMT and $NOC may see a "peace-deal" sell-off. But $RKLB won’t. A $190M hypersonic contract signed last week is a decade-long strategic necessity, not a reactive purchase. The DoD doesn't stop innovating because a Tuesday headline turns green.
SCENARIO B: Escalation resumes
Oil spikes toward $125-$150. The energy trade continues, and defense spending moves from "sustained" to "emergency acceleration."
Backlog is king. $RKLB $1.85B backlog becomes a fortress in a high-inflation environment. Meanwhile, plays like $ONDS, operating autonomous defense platforms in a drone-heavy combat theater, becomes an essential piece of national security that the market can no longer ignore.
The S&P 500 bottomed near $6,310 during the peak Iran panic in early April. We are now at $6,580.
The market has absorbed six weeks of a closed Strait without a total capitulation. This tells you the economic base is far more resilient than the bears want to admit.
I’m watching critical minerals. The Hormuz conflict has disrupted the flow of gallium and rare earths essential for AI semiconductor production.
A ceasefire doesn't just lower the cost of power. It also reopens the supply chain for the chips themselves. That is the trade hiding behind the headline.
I’m not betting on a coin flip. I’m positioned in companies with government-backed revenue and structural tailwinds that don't evaporate when the news cycle shifts.
That’s not bravado. That’s thesis discipline.
Sit tight.
-BP
Not financial advice. Your money, your decision.
