$MBLY — The Most Overlooked AI + Autonomy Play Right Now
Mobileye isn’t a startup betting on self-driving. They’ve been shipping ADAS technology since 1999. 230 million vehicles on the road today run their EyeQ chips. That’s the moat most investors are sleeping on.
But here’s where it gets interesting.
THE PRODUCT LADDER
→ Base EyeQ ADAS — 230M+ vehicles, cash flow engine
→ Surround ADAS — hands-free highway, 19M+ units committed by OEMs
→ SuperVision — full route assisted driving, $1,000+ content per vehicle vs ~$75 for base ADAS
→ Chauffeur — eyes-off L4 consumer autonomy
→ Drive — robotaxi fleet platform, already deploying in Oslo with VW’s MOIA
The revenue per vehicle inflection is the entire thesis. Every SuperVision win is worth 10–15x a base EyeQ unit.
THE NUMBERS
→ Q1 2026: $558M revenue, +27% YoY — beat estimates
→ FY2026 outlook raised to ~$1.98B
→ $1.7B cash on balance sheet
→ $250M share buyback announced
→ 2027 flagged by management as the P&L inflection year
RECENT WINS
→ Porsche — SuperVision production launch confirmed
→ Mahindra — SuperVision + Surround across 6+ models, India 2027
→ VW MOIA + Holo — Mobileye Drive robotaxi live in Oslo
→ Major US automaker — 19M+ EyeQ6H Surround units committed
THE WILDCARD
In early 2026, Mobileye acquired Mentee Robotics — an AI-first humanoid robotics company. CEO Amnon Shashua is now positioning $MBLY as a Physical AI platform, not just an automotive supplier. The TAM just got a lot bigger.
THE RISKS
→ NVIDIA + Qualcomm pushing open-platform alternatives — OEMs want software control
→ China market erosion from domestic rivals
→ Intel majority ownership overhang
→ Near-term losses expected through 2026 before the inflection
$MBLY trades like a legacy auto supplier. It’s actually a data + AI + autonomy company with 25 years of OEM relationships, 8M+ active REM mapping vehicles, and a product roadmap that scales revenue per vehicle 10–15x as autonomy levels increase.
2027 is the year the market will re-rate this story.
Not financial advice.
