Michael Sikand 🦑 (@michaelsikand) on Surfaced

Michael Sikand 🦑 (@michaelsikand) on Surfaced

Recent calls

20 calls

@michaelsikandJun 3, 2026 · 4:12 PM

I have a theory. $AAOI CEO Dr. Thompson Lin wants to become a billionaire. It's not often the path to a 10 figure net worth is this clear. PhD Lin is not stupid. $AAOI is his baby that he founded in 1997. He started it out of a University of Houston lab and built it in Sugar Land, Texas. Now you're telling me after all these years, he's going to pass up the chance to make it the Intel of Optics? Why do you think they're raising so much with ATMs? Onshore laser fabs aren't cheap, but once built they are a major natsec advantage. To put this in context, they were discussing CHIPS act funding to achieve their goals (very ambitious). Lin holds 2.26M shares, worth ~$430M at $191. At ~$443 a share that stake crosses $1B. That is a 2.3x from here at ~$35B market cap, a number I feel is very feasible given their ramp to a run rate of over $400M/mo or ~$5B in revenue run rate in 2027. The incentives look aligned here for this cracked scientist CEO, even if he made his first informative sell in years a few weeks back (after strictly buying it before). Give him some respect, he made a 10x+ on buying his own stock with $1M of his own money. For someone worth $400M+ selling $26M is like you liquidating a little in your brokerage. But it is very critical you understand the stock so you don't get shaken out. PE ratios and estimates you read are probably wrong given the ramp.

@michaelsikandMay 11, 2026 · 3:15 PM

I made a $1M trade and 900 anons printed with me. After $AAOI crashed for NO REASON after ER. I re-balanced my "Asymmetrical Bets" fund on @joinautopilot with ~$10M following it it. I increased $AAOI from 11% to 20% of the fund at ~$147/share. The stock jumped 23% today. https://t.co/UpIAidrdMC

@michaelsikandMay 8, 2026 · 4:47 PM

Management is the bear case with $AAOI. But I like that it's a founder led company. Founder/CEO Dr. Lin has not made an informative sell after a 900% 1Y rally. He's ONLY been making informative buys. $1M total since last May. Lin thinks he can make a generational play.

@michaelsikandMay 7, 2026 · 10:04 PM

Anyone else grab $AAOI in the 130's? Everything looks to be going to plan. Another situation with these photonics stocks where listening to management talk is way more important than the numbers. This is a forward growth story about becoming "a top 3 global laser supplier" with the ramp not starting until H2. The company raised full year guidance to $1.1B from $1B. Talked about their 900,00 sq. ft in U.S. factory space doing up to 30% production in USA on top of their 700K+ Taiwanese space Discussed their CPO laser which they plan to 80x production of (said they're in talks with several customers on this) Said margins could get to 40% towards end of year up from ~30% Working with 3 hyperscalers, one qualified, another almost qualified. Lin said real demand is $1.4-$1.5B even though they can only fulfill $1.1B. The company re-affirmed their target of hitting $450 monthly revenue in June/July 2027 which would imply an annual revenue run rate of $5B+ at a current market cap of ~$12B. This is what has triggered the massive re-rate. Execution risk remains crazy high but management just doubled down on what they previously said which is why the stock trade as high as $190 recently. I just don't think the strategically important infrastructure of AAOI (domestic laser fabs, vertical integration, CPO laser) is being given enough credit here. This could easily still be a multi-bagger if they execute, with the possibility of being worth several tens of billions in the next few years hence why it's the largest position in my photonics fund.

@michaelsikandMay 1, 2026 · 5:24 PM

Holy shit. One of $AAOI's slides got leaked ahead of ER. https://t.co/X3TDfD3M8x

@michaelsikandApr 25, 2026 · 7:13 PM

Five hard lessons I've learned about stocks. 1) Worship volume and liquidity. Even if you find better fundamentals on a foreign exchange, in most cases, the U.S. listed equivalent is the better play. 2) Don't get trapped at the execution phase. Execution is fucking hard. Management teams promise the world. Stocks are stories and you can literally make a killing on multiple expansion well before single bit of proof. 3) Forget sizing big into binary stocks (mining, biotech, buyouts). The opportunity cost is way too high when a catalyst has no clear time frame. Investors are impatient and they're so quick to ditch a stock when it takes longer than expected. 4) Do not be afraid of a blown out chart. For example, I hit a 3x on $AAOI this year after it was already up triple digits. You just have to do the work to suss out what's being priced in and what's not. 5) When you know something the market doesn't, don't hold back. Most of the times I've had a true, genuine edge I just didn't size to my gut conviction.

@michaelsikandApr 14, 2026 · 5:21 PM

Soitec is up 41% in the last 5 days ($SOI.PA / $SLOIF) From the day I went bullish photonics... Everyone always whining about the stocks saying they're already up 1000%, "you missed it". Well my Photonics ETF followed by $5.9M and over 1000+ investors is up 40% in 3 months and my top pick $AAOI surged 180% alone? In the case of Soitec it's still trading at 1/5 its ATH. The stock is getting more attention but it's still ridiculously cheap as its photonics division is still a small % of revenue. Most of the revenue still comes from the smartphone chip market which is in decline. I spent 3 days at Nvidia GTC studying the future of photonics. And Soitec's SiPho wafer monopoly was my #1 pick to front-run the CPO shift and get a multi-bagger. Still jut the start for this name.

@michaelsikandApr 10, 2026 · 4:45 PM

$SOI.PA Excuse my French, cuz I'm in FRANCE 🥐 The god-tier French photonics long gapped 19% today I'm up 187% on $AAOI since February but $SOI is my favorite next multi bag in photonics. Trading at 4x EV/Rev. 95% market share in the wafer under ever silicon photonics chip.

@michaelsikandApr 7, 2026 · 4:33 PM

$AAOI - a round of applause is due. In the span of just 1 month, this stock has been through more plot twists than a Nolan film 🤣 - Bullish ER led to 100% re-rating - Crashed on @citrini short attack. Surged back. - Several big accounts tweet bullish. FinX cult forms. - Doubled its ATM to $500M, crashed. Then market lapped up the paper like a vanilla cone - Last few weeks announced $324M in new orders pipeline 1.6T / 800G to a hyperscale customer (probably Oracle) - Showed off a CPO laser at OFC - Jane St jumps into the fray to manipulate the f*ck out of the stock and intimidate retail - Stock was under $80 last week. Today it's nearly $120. - Could be the next $LITE, $COHR or could fail to execute like in past optics super cycles. I lean bull. Wherever this story goes. Are you not entertained?

@michaelsikandApr 2, 2026 · 5:21 PM

$AAOI +20% hope the horse didn't buck you, anon? Ever since @JaneStreetGroup took a stake, I can't help but feel they're manipulating the hell out of this stock. This violent +-20% is something I'm not seeing on any other name. Overall, weird PA that hasn't necessarily matched the rest of the photonics sector. Though it did give me a chance to buy more at $79 earlier in the week. Anyhow, if you're in this stock understand the extreme volatility and really educate yourself on the bull case. Basically, the accounts on FinX that actually have real alpha are all long this name. The argument: AAOI is positioning itself as the dominant domestic supplier of next-gen optical transceivers right as the market enters a massive inflection. They claim they can do their 2025 revenue every month as soon as 2027... This is coming from someone who bought the stock at $50, then loaded up again at $90-100 after hearing the kind of wild numbers they're projecting. Know that macro smashes high beta. Execution risk is high on mgmt's side. This is a MF roller coaster but usually asymmetric plays are.

@michaelsikandMar 27, 2026 · 5:17 PM

The photonics thesis is predicated on a multi-year cycle. My play? Focus on two concentrated trades that account for both short and long term technology shifts so I can gobble up the asymmetry today and tommorow. The first, $AAOI, is my near-term explosive set up based on extreme hyperscaler demand for LPO transceivers to solve the copper wall now. Management is guiding to a $5B run rate as soon as early 2027, up from ~$500M in 2025. MC ~8B pales compared to the outlook. Vertical integration with their own domestic laser fabs makes it unique. I know the demand is there. This is not a sleep at the wheel trade. It means watching management like a hawk to see if they can meet the moment. The second, $SOI / $SLOIF, is a trade on the back half of the cycle, when CPO takes over because transceivers are imperfect solution. A pluggable transceiver or LPO uses approximately 50 square millimeters of Photonics-SOI per chip. A CPO switch package uses approximately 200 square millimeters. This business is cheap at 3.6x EV/revenue because it will take time to bounce off the mobile chip trough and let photonics point the way once CPO production ramps in 2027. Morgan Stanley sees this doubling their PT yesterday to 70 euros, considerable upside on 54 euros currently. "The mobile market remains weak, but growing confidence in Photonics SOI is shifting the medium-term outlook". Soiboy and AA-O-my-god.

@michaelsikandMar 24, 2026 · 6:46 PM

I called $AAOI at $50. But I bought the bulk of my position in the $90s. It's because the explosive re-rating around this stock created an EVEN more asymmetric set up... One that any multi-bag trader can't ignore which is why you see other big accounts now talking about this stock too creating a decent little cult. And since the massive guidance from earnings, we got more thesis enhancing news recently that shows the raw power of this story defying a choppy macro. - $200M 1.6T order - Guidance increased at OFC - A CPO focused laser demo at OFC - And then yesterday a new $50M order for 800G If you don't know: $AAOI is a vertically integrated transceiver maker. Transceivers which convert electricity to light are a VERY hot commodity for data centers as copper hits a physical limit on data transmission speed past 800G. Every transceiver needs a laser, but few companies make them which is choking supply, and $AAOI fabs their own lasers, some of which in the USA, which makes them really special. Their market cap is way below $LITE and $COHR, though they have the potential to play in the same league. This is why $AAOI management is guiding to as much as a $5B revenue run rate by mid 2027. For context, they did ~$500M in 2025 revenue. That's the raw asymmetry as the mkt cap is only $8B. If you saw my GTC vlog, it's clear co-packaged optics is the future. Nvidia's SVP of Networking literally told me he dreams of LESS transceivers. They are a constant point of failure. The Coreweave CTO said this at an event I attended: “Like if there’s a day where I don’t have to hear about failed optics, I will be so happy.” But CPO is a $0 market. $AAOI is serving hyperscalers like Amazon and Oracle spending billions on this technology, NOW. There is no other solution. That's why I think $AAOI the most exciting photonics stock right now to play the insane AI capex in 2026 that will continue regardless of war. This is not the time to play speculative, pre-rev companies. It's the time to buy critical bottlenecks and let explosive revenue growth make you rich even in a crazy macro. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

@michaelsikandMar 18, 2026 · 6:55 AM

At GTC, I learned about how tough it is for companies to get qualified for transceivers as they are one of the biggest points of failure in data centers. 800G hyperscaler qualification will be a major de-risking event for $AAOI as its a HUGE barrier to overcome.

@michaelsikandMar 16, 2026 · 8:02 PM

JENSEN on optical scale up and scale out "We do NOT have enough capacity" He specifically took the time to call out the photonics bottleneck. $LITE $COHR $AAOI https://t.co/yIAUDQ5z35

@michaelsikandMar 14, 2026 · 7:33 PM

I bought more $AAOI yesterday. It's the fastest growing company in the photonics supply chain trading at the cheapest valuation relative to that growth. Ignore the noise. Buy the bottlenecks. https://t.co/ec6PURgbpe

@michaelsikandMar 13, 2026 · 3:06 AM

$AAOI dumped 16% today... Here's why I doubled down and loaded more. $500M in new paper was a bit of a slap, up from the $250M ATM we expected... The good news is that the first $250M has been absorbed already. BUT, it's insane the stock ripped so hard with that kind of selling. I watched the smart money gobble this stock on every dip because the current market cap is criminal to the revenue projections. Basically everyone who missed $LITE and $COHR has been racing to get their exposure to this name. The Rosenblatt analyst on this stock, Mike Genovese, has made some savage photonics calls and has a 77% success rate with his PTs in the last year on all the top optics stocks. He's the #1 analyst in the firm and has the street high $140 PT on $AAOI. At the end of the day, we're trying to make an asymmetric trade here. My goal is crystal clear: buy a $8B market cap that could hit a $4B revenue run rate in 18 months. A 5% dilution is meaningless when we're trying to hit a 3-5x. I mean this was a company saying it was considering CHIPS act and Texas state funding to achieve its goals. Laser fabs are going to cost hundreds of millions to build onshore, there's no way around it. CEO of $AAOI Thompson Lin has been at this since the '90s. He's the founder. Is he really going to fumble a generational shift that could VERY clearly make his company worth $30B+? Three U.S. companies can make the lasers Jensen needs. The two largest, $LITE and $COHR just got in the S&P 500 and raised $2B from Nvidia each. What more proof do you need this is the next memory? I'm going to eat the execution risk and bet on the stock with 1/8 the market cap of its closest competitors. If I miss, I miss, but I'd rather strike out than hit a single or a double.

@michaelsikandMar 11, 2026 · 6:59 PM

These $AAOI price targets are conservative... https://t.co/PNCBEMkpFb

@michaelsikandMar 5, 2026 · 8:43 PM

$AAOI is the most asymmetrical stock in the world. Before it's 100% post ER rally, I had 2% of my portfolio in $AAOI. Now $AAOI is around 25% of it so here's why I'm concentrating at least in the short term. Especially around GTC and OFC (its the superbowl of photonics) and I'll be attending both IN PERSON so I'm gonna have crazy alpha. First off, I just think the asymmetry that's left in the AI trade right now is photonics. The macro is insanely cooked, Mag 7 is stuck in sludge over capex and bubble fears, memory has been puttering a bit (but I think it'll continue to surprise). Photonics is the only sector showing real momentum especially after Nvidia committed $4B to $LITE and $COHR to secure supply. A demand signal like this from the most forward-looking AI company is JUST the start. Overall, my public photonics portfolio is up 24% in the last week after a world war just started. That says enough. I genuinley think it's going to be the next supercycle like memory where every ER just blows minds and makes investors say "how is this even possible"? Here's why $AAOI is my favorite trade on this supercycle. $LITE market cap: ~$64B $COHR market cap: ~$50B $AAOI market cap: ~$7.7B They all make lasers. They all serve hyperscalers. Jensen just said he needs all the supply he can get. But $AAOI is growing the fastest of the three and it's trading at the lowest valuation relative to that growth. The easy money in $LITE and $COHR is gone. $AAOI still has a legitimate path to re-rating to be worth tens of billions of dollars, and FAST. They're literally guiding to $5B in revenue run rate by mid-2027 which is on par with estimates for $LITE which is a $60B company. Risks of course - the macro is a huge threat to everything, AAOI management has made big promises before and failed, co-packaged optics threaten the transceiver market down the line. I am going to be boots on the ground at OFC and GTC so I'll be watching my basket closely, I just wish they weren't in the same week... Me and @KawzInvests built a DCF, modeled the stock in 4 scenarios with price targets, and went deep on comparing them to the other laser makers. Link is in the bio if you want to read the article on our Substack publication.

@michaelsikandFeb 27, 2026 · 3:31 PM

$AAOI is up 40% today. I made it the #1 position in my photonics portfolio before their face melting ER. Here's why. $AAOI is a vertically integrated photonics company. They design and manufacture optical transceivers and lasers for so 100K+ GPUs can talk to each other at the speed of light. It's not just an AI story. $AAOI tripled their telecom business last year as they sell amplifiers for upgrading aging broadbond networks. Q4 revenue: $134.3M, up 34% year over year. Full-year revenue: $456M up 83% from 2024 Then management guided to over $1 billion in revenue for 2026 with $120M+ in operating profit. They said they were going to double, AGAIN. Management laid out a path to $378 million in MONTHLY transceiver revenue by mid-2027. Here's why that's not crazy. 800G and 1.6 terabit tranceiver demand is outpacing their production capacity through 2027. They just secured their fourth major hyperscale 800G volume order, greatly de-risking. They're tripling laser manufacturing in Texas because hyperscalers are demanding US-made production. Competitors can't even source lasers with suppliers quoting 1+ year lead times. And data center isn't even the whole story. AAOI's CATV business, the amplifiers and hardware that cable operators need to upgrade their networks to 1.8 GHz, nearly tripled to $245M in 2025. Two separate end markets accelerating simultaneously. That almost never happens. Telecom revenue surging while data center ramps for the optical revolution in AI factories. This the kind of re-rating we live for as an investors.

@michaelsikandFeb 26, 2026 · 9:40 PM

$AAOI Up 13% AH It is the largest position in my photonics fund. - Q4 revenue: $134.3M (+34% YoY) - Gross margin: 31.2% vs 28.7% last year - $455.7M. That's double 2024's $249.4M. - Q1 2026 guide is $150M–$165M. Margins holding. Photonics is next.