AlmaCap (@almacap114204) on Surfaced

AlmaCap (@almacap114204) on Surfaced

Recent calls

18 calls

@almacap114204May 29, 2026 · 10:49 AM

$FLY reminds me of when I bought $RKLB early days for $4.25 - $6.00. I was scraping every £ I could to buy as many shares as possible. Here are my receipts: https://t.co/sschpBbk8b

@almacap114204May 28, 2026 · 10:28 AM

Repeating my $RKLB analysis approach for $FLY — revenue multiples are nonsense and we can't really build a DCF for a business this early and this lumpy. Here's another way to look at it. Starting from FY25 revenue of $159.86m, assume FY30 lands at: > EBITDA Margin: 25% (negative today, but SciTec already contributes c.half of revenue at high software margins, Blue Ghost moving from bespoke builds to assembly-line production brings scale economies as lunar grows fastest, Ocula layers high-margin recurring lunar imagery/data on top of already-funded missions, and launch cadence ramps to drive operating leverage) > EBITDA Multiple: 40x (Way above traditional primes at 16–20x) > Discount rate: Back 5yrs at 20% to today (Seems a reasonable target rate of return?) From the below table you can see the spot ($58.81) implies a CAGR of ~70% from FY25 revenues. But I think the market is wrong: >Management have guided FY26 revenue of $420–450m — c.170% growth at the midpoint. >5 lunar landers in 2027 could deliver a further ~100%+ on top, and with NASA targeting up to 30 landers a year FLY should ramp toward c.10 a year by 2028–29. > Eclipse should command c.$60m+ per launch on medium-lift economics (Falcon 9 lists ~$70m for more payload) and scale from there; > Alpha Block II is c.$15m a launch and scaling; with hypersonics demand booming; > Ocula will see huge demand as the only commercial lunar imaging service just as government orbiters age out. > Critically, SciTec is now winning the defence dollars behind Golden Dome, a role on the Space Force's Space-Based Interceptor programme, and both Firefly and SciTec onboarded to the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD IDIQ ($151bn ceiling), high-margin software stacked on the hardware. > Add their own recent $75m NASA JPL MoonFall contract for four lunar drones (could this be the first of many?) Blend c.170% in 2026 with c.100%+ in 2027 (could be achieved from landers alone) and that's a c.130% CAGR over the two years to 31 December 2027. Even if the latter three years slow to a 75% CAGR, the five-year blend is c.96%, supporting a present-day value of ~$117, comfortably above spot. PS. Scitec alone could land a huge contract that could carry the business.

@almacap114204May 27, 2026 · 7:06 PM

$FLY filed a 12m-share offering yesterday: 4m primary from the company, 8m secondary from SciTec shareholders (they got 11.1m shares as stock consideration in the Oct '25 acquisition, c.$555m at $50), plus a 1.8m greenshoe on the SciTec stake. Likely fully tapped. > SciTec selling is good news as AE Industrial holds proxy votes over their shares. With greenshoe in, AE voting bloc drops from c.43.6% to c.36.6%. Meaningful loss of control. (AE control was the biggest risk in my $FLY thesis, so I am very happy to see them losing control) > 4m primary is ~$190m of capital, 2.44% dilution. Prudent vs Q1 FCF burn of c.$79m (c.$315m annualised). Extends runway from c.1.75 to c.2.3 years. > Burn could easily have run hotter given the Central Texas campus expansion, Innovation Lab build-out and Alpha Block II / Eclipse scale-up. Capex was $16m in Q1 vs $12m in Q4. As always, the best financing strategy for a growth company is to dilute / raise capital when you can, not when you need to. > Burn may also heat-up if they ramp-up to 4-5 landers per year in 2027/2028 in line with my expectations. > S-1 cites "general corporate and working capital purposes" only. No M&A flagged. Stronger balance sheet also helps with customer bidding on long-dated programmes.

@almacap114204May 26, 2026 · 4:33 PM

$FLY, up c.100% since I tweeted about it early April and still criminally cheap compared to $RKLB on a revenue multiple and from a growth perspective - I expect the stock to more than double from here by year end and to do the same again in 2027 when Eclipse ramps up. I did a long series of tweets setting out everything to know about FLY, which I've listed below for you anon: > Business Overview: 1) https://t.co/ax51XYWTbO > SciTec / Golden Dome: https://t.co/Hf0P8zRFGX > RKLB comparison: 1)https://t.co/vvoFKHXbi6 2)https://t.co/MEixUnzFmo > Eclipse vs Neutron: https://t.co/0480ZVXJ8K > Eclipse Northrop partnership: https://t.co/TIhiqklNs2 > Lunar landers / lunar business: 1)https://t.co/enuBRrAg1S 2)https://t.co/0P41tQ3GJx 3)https://t.co/0b1f4TXQwZ 4) Artemis / NASA programs: https://t.co/GEiRv5Flwt 5)Ocula: https://t.co/5tOqsO9OLo 6) Confirmed lander missions and expected pipeline: https://t.co/zYN9Qs6xzt > Engine programs / interesting hires: 1)https://t.co/Z7Ju67n1Nf 2)https://t.co/oFefe2cvIQ 3)https://t.co/zBGKZxTG40 4)https://t.co/tHxTBIYFiq > Thoughts on dilution: https://t.co/Lb1AEi0fDz I will share my thoughts as the business develops and as Block 2 comes so make sure to follow.

@almacap114204May 11, 2026 · 5:11 PM

$RKLB, revisiting after incredible earnings - albeit 63% revenue growth is not enough for me. > I think investors are looking at the backlog growth, forward to mynaric ramp-up and the impact of the recent acquisition and assuming growth will accelerate to 100%+ (I can see it happening tbh) > My base case is probably a 70-80% revenue CAGR following the backlog increase, noting change to backlog mix (space systems increased) and the new acquisition. So I would probably be a buyer around $70-$80 following recent news. I still prefer $FLY

@almacap114204May 5, 2026 · 7:35 AM

$FLY, earnings looks good to me - Management delivering on their very bullish guidance: > Q1 revenue of $80.9m (+45% YoY) and reiterated $420–450m FY26 guide (i.e. most of revenue should come in Q2-4) > Stuff we already knew: Golden Dome selection + $109m FORGE ECP + a clean Alpha Flight 7 > Losses widened on R&D, but we expected this. Next catalyst probably Alpha block 2, though I am personally more excited about lunar lander and Scitec stuff

@almacap114204Apr 26, 2026 · 2:21 PM

$FLY's SciTec named one of 12 vendors on Golden Dome's space-based interceptor OTAs (combined ceiling $3.2B, prototypes by 2028). As expected, CEO Kim flagged Golden Dome fire control + common ground as the explicit thesis when the $855m acquisition was announced in October. https://t.co/yWBBvr3uPM $RKLB not included.

@almacap114204Apr 25, 2026 · 11:37 AM

@justdoit29222 There is obviously risk with $FLY: - Alpha launch 8 could fail and stock price would react irrationally; - Guidance could be missed and stock price could drop too; If either of those happen then I will probably add.

@almacap114204Apr 22, 2026 · 1:49 PM

$FLY, now up c.60% since my tweet and 90% in the last month with Alpha due to fly for its 8th mission and first with the block 2 upgrades. https://t.co/xak8nOR0fj

@almacap114204Apr 18, 2026 · 7:21 PM

$LPK, this guy is more obsessed with LPK then I am with $FLY.... PS. I have a long position.

@almacap114204Apr 16, 2026 · 11:42 PM

@SushantJos39350 $FLY's historic growth is remarkable and recent Alpha mission was a success. When I drive my car I look through the windscreen not the rear view mirror

@almacap114204Apr 13, 2026 · 10:34 PM

$FLY, very good summary from Michael here. A few additional points to highlight: - $FLY's Alpha Block 2 upgrades expected to meaningfully improve reliability and increase launch cadence - Alpha and $RKLB's Electron face almost no competition in hypersonic testing — medium lift rockets simply can't serve this niche. At c.3x Electron's payload capacity, Alpha is well-positioned to capture the larger end of this market - $FLY's SciTec's missile warning and fire control software is a natural fit for hypersonics testing programmes

@almacap114204Apr 11, 2026 · 9:47 AM

$FLY, the market is sleeping on Scitec 50 years of missile warning. Their FORGE software turns raw infrared satellite data into real-time missile tracks. Iran has launched 1,200+ ballistic missiles across the region in the past few months. Space Force infrared satellites detect them. FORGE is the ground system that processes that data into actionable tracks for warfighters. What Scitec has now: - $164m revenue (LTM June 2025, pre-acquisition run rate) - FORGE contract: $372m (Space Force missile warning, expanded from $263m) - Eight-figure space control software contract (confidential US customer) - On the SHIELD IDIQ, the $151bn Golden Dome contract vehicle SciTec was only acquired in November 2025, barely 2 months contributed to $FLY's record $160m FY25 revenue. For FY26, $FLY guides $420-450m total revenue, with SciTec's full-year contribution a primary driver of that near-3x step up. Before FORGE expansion fully flows through. Before Golden Dome task orders. Who knows what FY27 could bring? Golden Dome is Trump's top defence priority. SciTec spans the entire chain: detection, tracking, fire control, decision superiority.

@almacap114204Apr 10, 2026 · 6:29 PM

$FLY What does this mean for Ocula? Blue Ghost Mission 1's additional data led to a $10 million contract addendum from NASA. This probably doesn't mean Firefly gets $10m per lander as its more a data subscription service, but with more satellites up (each mission they will take a satellite up) the data will be more valuable and Firefly will have broader coverage of the moon. TLDR: To early to speculate on the Ocula lunar imaging constellation opportunity size and scale.

@almacap114204Apr 9, 2026 · 2:13 PM

$FLY I want to talk about their lunar lander program, their lunar imaging constellation, their missile tracking software, their space tug, their recent COO hire, their CEO, their robotics job posting We are only scratching the surface, are you excited Anon?

@almacap114204Apr 8, 2026 · 11:04 AM

$FLY and $ASTS are the top two space stocks in my opinion, nothing else offers comparable upside

@almacap114204Apr 7, 2026 · 2:20 PM

The best investments right now sit withing three megatrends: Defence; AI; and Space (including moon/lunar). There are several picks that ride all three megatrends. Two I keep coming back to: $ASTS — satellite comms, but also positioning, radar and jamming tech. The heat dissipation patents are quietly ideal for orbital AI infrastructure. $FLY — Moon landing and hypersonic launch capability. Missile tracking software. If Artemis 2 unlocks lunar data centres, Firefly is already in position. Eclipse medium lift launch capability will be in demand if AI constellations are to be built out. The multi-trend exposure here is the point. War continues > you win. Space race accelerates > you win. Peace breaks out > defence pivots to space, you still win.

@almacap114204Apr 2, 2026 · 3:07 PM

🚀 $FLY is building the most complete space business, most people haven't noticed the SciTec upside yet... Alpha + Eclipse — Launch - Alpha (small lift) already flying 24hr responsive-launch missions for the USSF. Alpha is also used for hypersonics. Worth flagging that Alpha does not have the same launch track record as Electron. - Eclipse (medium lift co-developed w/ Northrop Grumman) puts 16,300kg to LEO — Miranda engine has completed full-duration hot fires - First flight targeting as early as 2027 Firefly Aerospace. Neutron won't launch before late-2026 at the earliest but likely to be late, so $FLY will beat them to market. Sorry $RKLB Blue Ghost (Lunar) - Only commercial company to successfuly land on the Moon. Full stop. Sorry $LUNR, falling over twice doesn't count... - Mission 2 already in the pipeline Elytra (In-Space) - Transfer vehicle for cislunar ops - National security contract already secured - Pairs with Blue Ghost as a full end-to-end lunar logistics play - Already being used for a lunar constellation that FireFly is deploying. SciTec (Defense Software) - AI-enabled defence analytics for missile tracking, acquired 2025 - Air battle management + in-space data processing Turns FLY into a software story too Revenue up 163% YoY in 2025. Firefly Aerospace Guiding $420–450m for 2026. Still ~50% below IPO price. Make of that what you will 👀 #Space $FLY $RKLB $LUNR I have a position and will be diving deeper into each of the segments on coming days, how the parts pair together isn't properly understood.