Jason's Chips (@jasonschips) on Surfaced

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Jason's Chips

@jasonschipsSemis8.7k followers

Jason's Chips

@jasonschipsSemis8.7k followers

Past 12mo:347mentions56tickers230posts

$LITE· Lumentum Holdings

21 calls since Dec 2025show all

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About this voice

@jasonschips posted 230 times across 56 distinct tickers over the past 12 months, accumulating 347 cashtag mentions. Lite (LITE) dominated the activity with 64 mentions, followed by Intel (INTC) with 27 mentions and Blackstone (BE) with 26 mentions. The account also tracked Sive (SIVE) with 23 mentions and CoreWeave (CRWV) with 22 mentions. Recent posts from mid-July 2026 focused on semiconductor and AI infrastructure plays, including detailed analysis of analyst positions on infrastructure companies.

AI-generated from tracked posts · updated Jul 18, 2026

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@jasonschipsJul 1, 2026 · 5:04 PM

Needham on Lumentum ($LITE): "NDR Affirms Demand Trajectory and Growth Outlook" Needham says Lumentum is solidifying itself as the AI optical infrastructure winner, with demand still 30%+ ahead of supply. This isn't just about co-packaged optics (CPO) anymore — near-packaged optics (NPO), optical circuit switching (OCS), and scale-across/DCI telecom TAM are all expanding, and LITE is positioned across every vector. Key proof points from the NDR: • Demand remains >30% ahead of supply despite massive capacity investments • NPO timeline pulled forward — hyperscalers now targeting 2027 shipments (LITE supplies lasers into optical engines) • NVIDIA UHP laser ramp on track: 3Q CY26 start, meaningful ramp in 4Q CY26 • Pump laser unit volume expected to increase 4x over next 4–6 quarters • New Greensboro NC fab (2028, 6-inch wafers) designed to support ~$5B annual revenue; capacity nearly sold out after NVIDIA locked up the majority Why it matters: The investor debate is whether LITE can sustain pricing and margin expansion as competitors add capacity. Needham thinks margin upside is underappreciated — recent expansion was driven by *price*, but management sees meaningful cost reduction ahead from 4-inch InP wafers, vertical integration, and operating leverage. Supply angle: LITE planning to add ~50% incremental capacity from Dec 2025 to Dec 2026. Currently 1.5 out of 4 fabs at max output, leaving room for additional capacity in 2027. New fab in 2028 is already nearly sold out. Market expansion angles: • CPO remains sizable near-term, but NPO emerging as new design opportunity • OCS expanding beyond Google to new use cases (including lower-radix failover routing around GPUs for DCI) • Scale-across/DCI telecom TAM: $1.5B today → $4B by 2029 (underappreciated by investors) • Building internal OCS capacity to support $1B annual revenue run-rate Needham view: Buy, $1,040 PT (stock at $895). Top pick since Jan '25. They see gross margin expansion as the most under-appreciated leverage story, driven by pricing power, cost reduction, vertical integration, and multiple end-market growth vectors all hitting at once.

@jasonschipsJun 30, 2026 · 5:09 PM

Needham on Lumentum ($LITE): "NDR Affirms Demand Trajectory and Growth Outlook" Needham says Lumentum is riding multiple optical expansion waves simultaneously — not just CPO hype. Demand outpaces supply by >30%, and new NPO (near-packaged optics) designs are accelerating the timeline while telecom scale-across/DCI remains underappreciated. Key proof points: • NPO timeline pulled forward: hyperscalers pursuing ASIC-based designs with LITE laser supply starting 2027 • NVDA UHP laser ramp on track: 3Q CY26 initial shipments, meaningful ramp 4Q CY26 • Pump laser volume expected to increase 4x over next 4-6 quarters • New Greensboro NC fab (2028) designed for 6-inch wafers, supports ~$5B annual revenue — capacity nearly sold out after NVDA locked up majority • OCS expanding beyond Google: new DCI application for lower-radix failover switching around GPUs Why it matters: The investor debate centers on whether LITE can sustain growth beyond near-term CPO demand. Needham thinks the answer is yes: NPO designs broaden the opportunity, OCS is finding new use cases, and telecom scale-across/DCI is poised to triple TAM from $1.5B (C26) to $4B (C29). Margin angle: Recent GM expansion driven by price, but management sees meaningful cost-reduction upside ahead. LITE is adding ~50% incremental capacity through Dec 2026 (moving to 4-inch InP wafers), with only 1.5 out of 4 current fabs at max output. Operating leverage story remains underappreciated. Supply/capacity roadmap: • 50% capacity increase Dec '25 → Dec '26 • 1.5/4 fabs at max output now; more coming online 2027 • Greensboro 6-inch wafer fab (2028) already heavily committed to NVDA • Building internal OCS capacity for $1B annual run-rate; contract mfg beyond that Needham view: Buy, $1,040 PT. They've held LITE as their top pick since Jan '25. The thesis: demand far outpaces supply, multiple growth vectors (CPO/NPO/OCS/DCI), and gross margin expansion is the most under-appreciated leverage story in the stock.

@jasonschipsJun 25, 2026 · 3:37 PM

Best scale up CPO stocks 1. $LITE - Lumentum 2. $AAOI - Lumentum with autism 3. $AIXA - Sells machines to Lumentum 4. 5344.T - Sells ceramic widgets to Lumentum

@jasonschipsJun 19, 2026 · 4:46 PM

Optical circuit switches are a technology still in the early stages of its S curve. Its growth rate scales with three vectors: AI growth, adoption rate (how many electrical switches go optical), and attach rate (for those switches that turn optical, how many are needed per cluster?). This is why I forecast triple-digit to high double-digit growth for the next three to five years. Yet the market mostly focuses on transceivers and CPO, completely missing what $LITE and $COHR call their “biggest growth driver.” In this article, I provide everything you need to know to establish an intuitive understanding of the OCS market. We cover: - Switch Primer - OCS vs Electronic Packet Switch (EPS) - Spine Switch Replacement - Google TPU Superpod OCS - Scale-Up OCS - Types of OCS - OCS Market Model - Lumentum - Coherent - Hidden Small-Cap OCS Vendor - Final Thoughts: Better Than CPO?

@jasonschipsJun 9, 2026 · 10:03 PM

Nothing in an NPO is forcing ELS architecture like CPO because the module is far enough away that heat is less of an issue, and NPO modules can be swapped, so serviceability isn't either. However, SemiAnalysis in their original CPO article showed lasers placed externally and for NPO to be a larger opportunity for $LITE than CPO, ELS is pretty much required. This makes me think that in the medium term, NPO is a material positive to $LITE. Since it's only a bridge to CPO, having a favorable initial design is all it takes for massive estimate beats. And we all know that ELS architecture is locked in for CPO. Also favorable for the rest of the InP ecosystem. Sell off today looks very, very overdone!

@jasonschipsJun 7, 2026 · 2:30 PM

No I actually think this is true M9 CCL (req for Kyber midplane) is very hard and supply chain prob ain't ready. NPO is next best solution. But this isn't negative for CPO because even phase 1 scale-up won't be volume until Feynman NVL 1152. Scale-out switches will still use CPO. This is fully incremental optical content! $LITE $COHR

@jasonschipsJun 2, 2026 · 1:04 PM

The most important takeaway from my Computex visit today is in optics. Inside this image is the reason for why $LITE and $AIXA are going to 10x. Can you see it? https://t.co/kHPzseahC2

@jasonschipsMay 28, 2026 · 11:45 AM

$SIVE used to be an undiscovered small cap with a respectable thesis, but after a 20x return facilitated by large social media accounts (unethically and illegally) promoting the ticker, the valuation has gotten absurd. The only way to save the stock is through its optical division gaining a foothold in the CPO market, which is much less likely than what the many are promoting. Promoters believes $SIVE will gain a foothold because they are in conversations or have remote connections to hyperscalers through various optical startups. This is wrong because what actually matters is its technology, and it is precisely technology where Sivers falls apart. $SIVE is fabless because they lack the manufacturing expertise in the very difficult process of indium phosphide fabrication. Which means they lack a moat, as they are skipping the hard part to do the easy part. $SIVE owns no exclusive technology, as Lumentum makes the same exact laser arrays, but better. And finally, but most importantly, $SIVE is targeting the wrong architecture entirely. $LITE has a choice between UHP and WDM, and they made a choice to ramp the exact thing that is the opposite of what Sivers is doing, for volume production. Sivers Semiconductor is the most overvalued stock in optics.

@jasonschipsMay 24, 2026 · 7:02 PM

The accounts pumping (and inevitably dumping) $SIVE at ~$2.3b market cap have not done their one job as providers of investment research: showing the numbers. $SIVE had ~$33 million of revenue in 2025. 70% of it was their legacy wireless segment. The 30% of it that is photonics isn't purely data center, as that segment also includes LIDAR. A sub-division between the two categories is not given. So, yes, they have at most $10m in DC photonics revenue and trade at least 230x that revenue today. Now, of course, trailing revenue is a terrible way to value a photonics business, but we need an anchor somewhere with real numbers. $LITE give us plenty every single earnings call. 1. >$1b OCS run-rate in 2027. 2. Greensboro fab that supports >$5b of CPO revenue likely to be sold out. 3. $8b revenue run rate to be achieved in 18 months. $SIVE has not announced a single DC photonics *volume* purchase order or given any DC photonics revenue guidance. Not a single one, and I'm not kidding. The only anchor we have to go off of is that they had, at most, $10 million in data center photonics revenue in 2025, most likely far less. What CAGR is needed to justify their current $2.3 billion market cap?

@jasonschipsMay 23, 2026 · 11:50 PM

$SIVE vs $LITE valuation multiples: Since we're running comps, let's use consensus projections (even though consensus is usually too conservative with AI infra companies) Let's also not discuss how one of them has possibly the best lasers in the world, while the other has possibly the worst. Revenues and margins only! $LITE trades at 14x NTM EV/Revenue and 32x NTM EV/EBITDA with 44% EBITDA margins. Not bad. $SIVE is 50x NTM EV/Revenue and... with 7.6% EBITDA margins... 650x NTM EV/EBITDA! Not arguing that it's a bad stock (yet). Just saying that "valued the same as $LITE" wouldn't be your thesis :)

@jasonschipsMay 20, 2026 · 12:38 AM

Holy shit LFG $LITE If they solve their capacity problem even slightly this is easily a multi hundred billion co

@jasonschipsMay 13, 2026 · 12:32 PM

GG WP. I was wrong for selling them early. Seems like we're in a regime where even capacity-constrained (monopoly) players like $TSEM can still beat and raise as the ecosystem always figures out a way to help the bottleneck. Same probably applies to $LITE

@jasonschipsMay 10, 2026 · 9:30 PM

My "above street" $LITE model from Feb/March had CY28 EPS at $37. Now the street is at $50. This is why I no longer sell companies on "valuation." https://t.co/1XcTt2UcFj

@jasonschipsMay 5, 2026 · 8:44 PM

First take on $LITE print. If you think back to when they gave us longer-term guidance during OFC, they said that they would get to $1.25b of quarterly revenue run rate in 9-12 months (so March 2027 quarter). They just guided to nearly a billion in quarterly revenue this quarter. Let’s do the math. In the March quarter, they added $135 M in revenue. This quarter they’re adding $185 M in revenue. Their sequential absolute growth is accelerating. Now they’re only around $270 M off. This means they might be on track to hit their target up to two quarters early, possibly in the September quarter.

@jasonschipsApr 1, 2026 · 3:11 PM

$1000 is inevitable $LITE https://t.co/hKRQfril5l

@jasonschipsMar 24, 2026 · 4:32 PM

One day after moving to top pick $LITE https://t.co/mj9CWvxdN5

@jasonschipsMar 23, 2026 · 4:10 PM

I have been a Lumentum $LITE bull since $250 in November. Let me tell you a story. Once upon a time (2 weeks ago), I wondered… when will scale-up CPO be adopted? What rack architecture will Nvidia use and will it be optical? How big is the market? Then, GTC and OFC happened at the same time. We got our answers. All of them. When I opened Lumentum’s OFC presentation, my jaw dropped. After a full weekend of work, I present to you my analysis. Of why I moved Lumentum back to Top Pick. And my full bottoms-up build of Lumentum’s CPO revenue. Please check it out! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

@jasonschipsFeb 3, 2026 · 9:32 PM

GM 42.5% vs 39% op margins 25% vs 20% Q3 guide $800m vs $680m op margins 30% vs 20% (WTF!!!!!!) OCS backlog well above $400 million, multi hundred million CPO order deliverable H1 27. Expectations MURDERED. Don't mess with $LITE

@jasonschipsJan 30, 2026 · 9:06 PM

@Chrysos079 Anything gemini related is directly benefitting $LITE. They are the king of Google's supplier ecosystem.

@jasonschipsJan 25, 2026 · 11:06 PM

After dozens of hours of research, I have concluded the $LITE vs $COHR debate is frankly stupid. $LITE makes high-power narrow-linewidth DFB lasers for CPO and MEMS OCS + BiDi transceivers for Google TPU ecosystem. $COHR mass produces basic transceivers for everyone else using their vertically integrated supply chain. While on paper their markets overlap, $LITE is so behind on scale while $COHR is so behind in laser tech they almost don't compete. The bulk of their revenue comes from completely different places! With an optical communications market this large, I am betting on both to not miss the alpha.

@jasonschipsDec 14, 2025 · 6:44 AM

I've spent the last month researching Lumentum $LITE, a name that's become popular on this platform. It's a truly fascinating company with many business lines all hitting inflection points and several credible, completely unrelated long theses. https://t.co/vFbGLON5Sr