Jason's Chips (@jasonschips) on Surfaced

Jason's Chips (@jasonschips) on Surfaced

Recent calls

26 calls

@jasonschipsJun 2, 2026 · 1:04 PM

The most important takeaway from my Computex visit today is in optics. Inside this image is the reason for why $LITE and $AIXA are going to 10x. Can you see it? https://t.co/kHPzseahC2

@jasonschipsMay 28, 2026 · 11:45 AM

$SIVE used to be an undiscovered small cap with a respectable thesis, but after a 20x return facilitated by large social media accounts (unethically and illegally) promoting the ticker, the valuation has gotten absurd. The only way to save the stock is through its optical division gaining a foothold in the CPO market, which is much less likely than what the many are promoting. Promoters believes $SIVE will gain a foothold because they are in conversations or have remote connections to hyperscalers through various optical startups. This is wrong because what actually matters is its technology, and it is precisely technology where Sivers falls apart. $SIVE is fabless because they lack the manufacturing expertise in the very difficult process of indium phosphide fabrication. Which means they lack a moat, as they are skipping the hard part to do the easy part. $SIVE owns no exclusive technology, as Lumentum makes the same exact laser arrays, but better. And finally, but most importantly, $SIVE is targeting the wrong architecture entirely. $LITE has a choice between UHP and WDM, and they made a choice to ramp the exact thing that is the opposite of what Sivers is doing, for volume production. Sivers Semiconductor is the most overvalued stock in optics.

@jasonschipsMay 24, 2026 · 7:02 PM

The accounts pumping (and inevitably dumping) $SIVE at ~$2.3b market cap have not done their one job as providers of investment research: showing the numbers. $SIVE had ~$33 million of revenue in 2025. 70% of it was their legacy wireless segment. The 30% of it that is photonics isn't purely data center, as that segment also includes LIDAR. A sub-division between the two categories is not given. So, yes, they have at most $10m in DC photonics revenue and trade at least 230x that revenue today. Now, of course, trailing revenue is a terrible way to value a photonics business, but we need an anchor somewhere with real numbers. $LITE give us plenty every single earnings call. 1. >$1b OCS run-rate in 2027. 2. Greensboro fab that supports >$5b of CPO revenue likely to be sold out. 3. $8b revenue run rate to be achieved in 18 months. $SIVE has not announced a single DC photonics *volume* purchase order or given any DC photonics revenue guidance. Not a single one, and I'm not kidding. The only anchor we have to go off of is that they had, at most, $10 million in data center photonics revenue in 2025, most likely far less. What CAGR is needed to justify their current $2.3 billion market cap?

@jasonschipsMay 23, 2026 · 8:13 PM

PSA: $LITE is still comically undervalued

@jasonschipsMay 20, 2026 · 12:38 AM

Holy shit LFG $LITE If they solve their capacity problem even slightly this is easily a multi hundred billion co

@jasonschipsMay 13, 2026 · 12:32 PM

GG WP. I was wrong for selling them early. Seems like we're in a regime where even capacity-constrained (monopoly) players like $TSEM can still beat and raise as the ecosystem always figures out a way to help the bottleneck. Same probably applies to $LITE

@jasonschipsMay 12, 2026 · 4:36 AM

"What's the next $LITE?" ... it's $LITE

@jasonschipsMay 10, 2026 · 9:30 PM

My "above street" $LITE model from Feb/March had CY28 EPS at $37. Now the street is at $50. This is why I no longer sell companies on "valuation." https://t.co/1XcTt2UcFj

@jasonschipsMay 9, 2026 · 4:35 PM

$LITE's sellside consensus price target is now at $1,065. It's above the market price again. When was the last time you saw that happen? https://t.co/BQZMNhQ8R6

@jasonschipsMay 7, 2026 · 4:53 PM

@bubbleboi Mood swings between shitco and $LITE 2.0 are thrilling

@jasonschipsMay 5, 2026 · 8:44 PM

First take on $LITE print. If you think back to when they gave us longer-term guidance during OFC, they said that they would get to $1.25b of quarterly revenue run rate in 9-12 months (so March 2027 quarter). They just guided to nearly a billion in quarterly revenue this quarter. Let’s do the math. In the March quarter, they added $135 M in revenue. This quarter they’re adding $185 M in revenue. Their sequential absolute growth is accelerating. Now they’re only around $270 M off. This means they might be on track to hit their target up to two quarters early, possibly in the September quarter.

@jasonschipsMay 4, 2026 · 6:52 PM

$SIVE looks like a meme stock to me lmao Although I probably just don't know that much about the company and people say the same about my favs $LITE and $BE which also have ridiculous charts Will do some work on them just for fun

@jasonschipsApr 8, 2026 · 4:38 PM

My performance today feels illegal ( $LITE about to be up 10% too) https://t.co/TBFsdZ3JbF

@jasonschipsApr 1, 2026 · 3:11 PM

$1000 is inevitable $LITE https://t.co/hKRQfril5l

@jasonschipsMar 27, 2026 · 1:11 PM

How the fuck did they... $LITE https://t.co/IWRznMsbJR

@jasonschipsMar 26, 2026 · 3:26 AM

why does this feel very off? i have positive opinion of $AAOI but it's $LITE that sells the lasers externally. if anything $AAOI buys lasers. really it comes down to if laser capacity > transceiver capacity, they sell lasers, and if tranceivers > laser capacity, they buy them. $LITE is the former $AAOI the latter.

@jasonschipsMar 24, 2026 · 4:32 PM

One day after moving to top pick $LITE https://t.co/mj9CWvxdN5

@jasonschipsMar 23, 2026 · 4:10 PM

I have been a Lumentum $LITE bull since $250 in November. Let me tell you a story. Once upon a time (2 weeks ago), I wondered… when will scale-up CPO be adopted? What rack architecture will Nvidia use and will it be optical? How big is the market? Then, GTC and OFC happened at the same time. We got our answers. All of them. When I opened Lumentum’s OFC presentation, my jaw dropped. After a full weekend of work, I present to you my analysis. Of why I moved Lumentum back to Top Pick. And my full bottoms-up build of Lumentum’s CPO revenue. Please check it out! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

@jasonschipsMar 21, 2026 · 2:04 AM

Only $5.5b in 2027 hahahaha $LITE

@jasonschipsFeb 3, 2026 · 9:32 PM

GM 42.5% vs 39% op margins 25% vs 20% Q3 guide $800m vs $680m op margins 30% vs 20% (WTF!!!!!!) OCS backlog well above $400 million, multi hundred million CPO order deliverable H1 27. Expectations MURDERED. Don't mess with $LITE

@jasonschipsFeb 2, 2026 · 5:51 PM

@jasonschipsJan 30, 2026 · 2:44 PM

All of the $LITE 's https://t.co/w2yYVbedJX

@jasonschipsJan 25, 2026 · 11:06 PM

After dozens of hours of research, I have concluded the $LITE vs $COHR debate is frankly stupid. $LITE makes high-power narrow-linewidth DFB lasers for CPO and MEMS OCS + BiDi transceivers for Google TPU ecosystem. $COHR mass produces basic transceivers for everyone else using their vertically integrated supply chain. While on paper their markets overlap, $LITE is so behind on scale while $COHR is so behind in laser tech they almost don't compete. The bulk of their revenue comes from completely different places! With an optical communications market this large, I am betting on both to not miss the alpha.

@jasonschipsDec 23, 2025 · 5:21 AM

@insane_analyst Hey, thanks for sharing, I really enjoy your pieces. Wondering why you disagreed with OCS as upside to $LITE?

@jasonschipsDec 15, 2025 · 5:05 AM

$LITE https://t.co/vuzg6qEaS1

@jasonschipsDec 14, 2025 · 6:44 AM

I've spent the last month researching Lumentum $LITE, a name that's become popular on this platform. It's a truly fascinating company with many business lines all hitting inflection points and several credible, completely unrelated long theses. https://t.co/vFbGLON5Sr