KawzInvests 🦑 (@kawzinvests) on Surfaced

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KawzInvests 🦑

@kawzinvestsLong Research115.3k followers

KawzInvests 🦑

@kawzinvestsLong Research115.3k followers

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$AAOI· Applied Optoelectronics

15 calls since Jan 2026show all

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About this voice

@kawzinvests posted 365 times over the past 12 months, mentioning 886 cashtags across 138 distinct tickers. The most frequently mentioned ticker was $AAOI with 81 mentions, followed by $LITE with 65 mentions and $COHR with 61 mentions. Other heavily discussed stocks included $NVDA with 59 mentions and $NOK with 44 mentions. The voice's recent activity centered on developments in artificial intelligence models and their implications for semiconductor and cloud infrastructure companies.

AI-generated from tracked posts · updated Jul 18, 2026

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@kawzinvestsJul 14, 2026 · 1:35 PM

$AAOI just broke ground on nearly 400,000 sq ft of new manufacturing in Pearland, Texas. All of it dedicated to 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers. https://t.co/yRbJMdeuxU

@kawzinvestsJun 10, 2026 · 2:33 PM

@Hartik__ Yep and people are sleeping on the ELS ramp. $AAOI going from 5k lasers a month to 400k a month by 2027.

@kawzinvestsMay 1, 2026 · 4:09 PM

This is one of the most insane runs of the entire cycle. $AAOI up 382% YTD. From $11 to $190 in 12 months. I started buying in the low 30s when fewer than 5 accounts on this app were covering the name. The 1.6T supercycle is here. https://t.co/BXICEhPgNX

@kawzinvestsApr 29, 2026 · 4:08 PM

The State of Texas just gave $AAOI a $20.9M grant to expand its Sugar Land facility. This stacks on top of the 900,000 square foot Houston footprint they announced two weeks ago. Here's why this matters. $AAOI guided full-year 2026 revenue to exceed $1 billion on their Q4 call. That is more than double 2025's $455.7M, and it is anchored to capacity ramping to 500,000 units per month of 800G and 1.6T transceivers by year end. Now look at where 2027 is going. By 2027, $AAOI is guiding 700,000 units per month from Houston alone. That is 40% more capacity than what powers the entire $1B 2026 guide, and Houston is only one of two manufacturing hubs (Taiwan is the other). Run the math at 2027 ASPs of roughly $263 per 800G unit and $344 per 1.6T unit. If most production stays on 800G, Houston alone produces around $200M per month, or ~$2.4B annualized. If the mix shifts heavily to 1.6T (the AI generation), Houston alone produces around $225M per month, or ~$2.7B annualized. That is Houston only, at 5x to 6x current full-company revenue. CFO Stefan Murry on the Q4 call said revenue is "limited by our production capacity and supply chain, not market demand." So when the State of Texas writes them a check to scale faster, that is what is being unlocked. $AAOI is the only true Made in America transceiver player at this scale. Nobody builds 900,000 square feet on speculation. $LITE $COHR $AAOI

@kawzinvestsApr 8, 2026 · 2:34 PM

$AAOI is up 37.66% in 5 days. The OFC numbers we posted are why. ~$64 million per month in current revenue. ~$303 million per month by Q4 2026. ~$701 million per month by Q4 2027. These are not annual figures. The mechanism is ASP mix shift, not volume growth. The ELSFP module goes from effectively zero today to ~$256 million per month by Q4 2027. Each product generation that ships carries materially more revenue per unit than the one before it. The bear case is manufacturing execution. That has not changed. But even at 70% of guidance, a $9B market cap does not reflect where this revenue mix is going. The thesis has not changed. $AAOI $COHR $LITE

@kawzinvestsApr 2, 2026 · 9:33 PM

$AAOI received a $71M order for 800G transceivers from ANOTHER Major Hyperscale Customer In the last 3 weeks alone: - March 9: First-ever volume order for 1.6T transceivers - March 23: New 800G volume order - April 2: Upsized $71M 800G order All from the same undisclosed "major hyperscale customer." That customer is almost certainly $ORCL. Oracle is mid-execution on the largest cloud buildout in its history. The order sizes, the timing, the acceleration. It all fits. The CEO said it himself today. "We also recently shipped the first 10,000 units of an 800G single-mode transceiver order to another hyperscale datacenter customer." Two hyperscalers. Both ordering now. Both accelerating. This is a multi-year cycle. 400G became 800G. 800G becomes 1.6T. 1.6T is the last stop before the industry moves to Co-Packaged Optics, CPO, where optics get embedded directly onto the switch chip. Less power. More bandwidth. The hyperscalers have been pushing toward this for years. $AAOI already has their first 1.6T volume order. They broke ground on a 210,000 sq ft factory in February. Their anchor customer keeps coming back and ordering bigger every single time.

@kawzinvestsMar 24, 2026 · 12:12 AM

$AAOI just landed a $53M+ order for 800G transceivers from a major hyperscaler. This comes right after last week's 1.6T order from the same customer.

@kawzinvestsMar 18, 2026 · 6:12 AM

Building a memory fab takes 4 years. Building a photonics fab takes 9 months. There is a MASSIVE difference between the build out for Photonics vs Memory A memory fab is a precision lithography operation. You are packing billions of transistors at single-digit nanometer nodes. EUV tools alone take 12-18 months to procure and calibrate. The yield ramp after that takes years. The bottleneck is physics and it cannot be compressed. A photonics fab is an INTEGRATION PROBLEM. You are building devices that manipulate light, not electrons. Indium phosphide. Optical waveguides. Alignment tolerances measured in nanometers of coupling efficiency, not transistor density. No EUV required. The practical timeline difference: Samsung Electronics, $MU, SK Hynix 3 to 5 years from groundbreak to meaningful output. The lithography learning curve is non-negotiable. $AAOI with an existing warehouse 9 months. Not because construction is faster. Because they skip the construction problem entirely. Cleanroom retrofit, tool installation, and process bring-up run in parallel. Most companies do these sequentially. AOI does not. $AAOI has a massive automation advantage AOI runs internal testing systems at 20x the throughput of standard industry equipment. Their product platforms are standardized to the point where each new production line is not a new engineering problem it is a deployment. When they enter a new facility, they are not figuring out the process. They are executing a template they have already optimized across years of production in Taiwan. That is exactly what is happening with their new Texas facility. AOI is not building something new. They are replicating the same factory format, tooling layout, automation systems, and process templates that are already running and yielding in Taiwan. The institutional knowledge, the yield data, the calibration baselines all of it transfers. A semiconductor company standing up a new node from scratch has none of that. AOI walks in with the answer key. Vertical integration across lasers, PCBA, and final assembly means there is no external dependency introducing variance into yield. They own the entire feedback loop from wafer to finished transceiver. That matters because of what the real bottleneck actually is. Most people stop the analysis at fab timelines or InP supply. Both are real constraints. Neither is the hardest part. The hardest part is thermal qualification. A transceiver operating inside a hyperscaler switch runs continuously. These switches need to operate at full load 24 hours a day for the unit economics to justify the infrastructure spend. If the switch is down, the compute behind it is idle. At the scale hyperscalers operate, idle compute is not an inconvenience it is a direct hit to the return on billions of dollars of capex. The failure mode that defines vendor selection is thermal. Transceivers generate heat. Heat degrades the laser. A degraded laser causes signal loss. Signal loss in a switch port takes that segment of the switching fabric offline. Hyperscalers do not tolerate partial switch failures they replace the vendor. This is why qualification cycles are the longest stage of the entire ramp, not manufacturing. Hyperscalers test interoperability, sustained thermal performance, and reliability under continuous full load before committing volume. A vendor that cannot demonstrate 24/7 thermal stability does not get the contract regardless of how fast they built the factory. AOI's vertical integration is a direct solution to this problem. Because they control lasers, PCBA, and assembly in-house, they control the thermal envelope of the finished product end to end. Competitors are integrating components from separate vendors and discovering thermal variance late in qualification. AOI is designing the thermal system, not assembling one from parts. Their automated testing infrastructure means thermal issues surface during production, not during the customer's qualification cycle. That compresses the single longest stage in the entire ramp. And because the Texas facility is a copy of Taiwan, that thermal system arrives pre-validated. They are not learning how to build a thermally stable transceiver in Texas. They already know. They are just doing it closer to the customer. Memory Manufacuturing bottleneck = lithography Photonics Manufacuturing bottleneck = thermal qualification The structural thesis is sound. But there is always a layer of entropy no model accounts for. Execution risk does not disappear because the framework is good.

@kawzinvestsMar 13, 2026 · 8:00 PM

$AAOI I have been seeing a lot of bearish takes on this name recently. I am still long. The stock is down 26% from its all-time high of $127. The bear case has gotten louder. Here is why I think the bears are missing the asymmetry. At $94, AAOI trades at roughly 8x FY2026 consensus revenue of $856M. Management guided above $1B, which brings that multiple down to around 7x. LITE trades at approximately 14.5x forward revenue. COHR trades at roughly 7x. AAOI is growing faster than both. Now look at what half-execution on 2027 targets actually means: Management said monthly transceiver revenue reaches $378M by mid-2027. That annualizes to $4.5B. At current prices you are paying roughly 1.6x that run rate. If they deliver half of that you are still paying well under 3x revenue for a company growing triple digits with an in-house InP fab. That does not stay unpriced. The Q4 results were real. Revenue of $134M, up 33.9% year over year, beating estimates. EPS of -$0.01 vs consensus of -$0.12. 1.6T volume order secured from a major hyperscale customer. Shipments starting Q3 2026. Three hyperscale customers each expected to exceed 10% of FY2026 revenue. The single customer concentration risk the bears have cited for years is structurally gone. The company is investing $300M to triple InP laser capacity in Texas by mid-2027. They are presenting at OFC on March 17th. Jensen speaks Monday. The bear case requires management to miss badly on every single target simultaneously. The bull case only requires them to be half right. Full breakdown in the report. Link in bio.

@kawzinvestsMar 9, 2026 · 9:22 PM

$IONQ peaked at $84 in October 2025 and has since shed nearly 60% from its highs. $AAOI hit a 52-week low of $9 earlier that year and is now at $110. The market is starting to figure out what the research already shows quantum provides no matrix multiplication speedup. That's the core workload AI runs on. Photonics is the actual bottleneck being solved. The rotation is already happening. Most people just haven't named it yet. $AAOI is up 18% today

@kawzinvestsMar 6, 2026 · 5:43 PM

@LawnChairCap I think $AAOI has the highest R/R

@kawzinvestsMar 4, 2026 · 8:02 PM

$AAOI is my biggest position. Let me show you exactly why using their own words. On the Q4 earnings call, CEO Thompson Lin was asked about the $1B+ revenue guide for 2026. His response: "The demand is much, much bigger than $1 billion. That's the number we feel minimum 99% confident we can deliver." Then the CFO said this about the $378M monthly run rate target for mid-2027: "This revenue level is limited by our production capacity and supply chain — not market demand, which we believe is much larger." Read that again. The ceiling on this company is not customers. Not competition. Not pricing. Purely how fast they can build fabs. Now here's what nobody is modeling correctly. That $378M monthly number — $4.5B annualized — is not the ceiling. Management explicitly said customer demand exceeds even that figure. On capacity, here's the number that floored me: End of 2025: 90,000 units/month of 800G capacity. End of 2026 target: 500,000 units/month. 5.5x capacity increase in 12 months. Here's how that ramp actually plays out: - 800G firmware completes: mid-March - 800G volume ramp begins: Q2 2026 - 500,000 units/month online: end of 2026 - $378M monthly run rate: mid-2027 And here's the part the market is completely missing on capex efficiency: 800G and 1.6T are manufactured on the exact same production line. Every dollar $AAOI spends building 800G capacity is automatically 1.6T capacity. Competitors building separate lines are burning capital twice. $AAOI is not. Then on hard orders: "Within less than three months — $100M+ in 800G orders. $200M+ in 1.6T orders." From a company doing $134M in total quarterly revenue today. "It's not a demand issue" — said three separate times on the call. The question for $AAOI is not whether demand exists. That's been answered. The question is purely execution. And they just committed $300M to triple their laser manufacturing capacity in Texas to answer it. Full breakdown + DCF on my Substack(Link in Bio + Below)

@kawzinvestsFeb 27, 2026 · 7:01 PM

$AAOI up 50% today. Management guided $378M per month in transceiver revenue by Q2 2027. That is $4.5B annualized. A $50B market cap does not sound crazy when you run those numbers. We are early. $LITE $COHR $AAOI https://t.co/56RPJYBmqw

@kawzinvestsFeb 26, 2026 · 10:39 PM

Sat through the whole call. Here are my notes: The $1B 2026 guide is a supply ceiling, not a demand ceiling. Management said actual demand is much larger. Firmware completes mid-March. That is the last hurdle before the 800G volume ramp in Q2. Nearly two years of 800G backlog from multiple hyperscalers. 1.6T demand already exceeds production capacity before a unit ships. 2-3 customers want everything they can make. $300M going into Texas to more than triple laser manufacturing by mid-2027. CATV tracking toward $300M annually on its own. That is the floor while datacenter scales. Management's Q2 2027 target: $378M in monthly transceiver revenue. Everything we thesis'd is playing out. $AAOI

@kawzinvestsJan 30, 2026 · 6:33 PM

@SJCapitalInvest This is my favorite photonic stock on the market right now. Hyperscaler deals confirmed and US domestic manufacturing. $AAOI