$AAOI — FinTwit mentions on Surfaced

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$AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics

$AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics

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About this stock

$AAOI has generated 1,894 mentions from 38 distinct FinTwit voices over the past 12 months, with the first mention appearing on December 14, 2025. The most active voice discussing the ticker is @aleabitoreddit (Serenity) with 447 mentions, followed by @crux_capital_ (Gaetano) with 251 mentions, @investmentguru_ (InvestmentGuru) with 191 mentions, @blackpanthercap (Black Panther Capital) with 154 mentions, and @photonbull (PhotonBull) with 109 mentions. The semis category dominates discussion of $AAOI among FinTwit voices. The most recent mentions occurred on July 18, 2026, with @midascabal identifying $AAOI among top photonics stocks and @aleabitoreddit discussing revenue projections and market valuation multiples.

AI-generated from tracked posts · updated Aug 16, 2026

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Recent calls

latest 100 of 176

@aleabitoredditJul 17, 2026 · 2:52 PM

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.

@photonbullJul 16, 2026 · 3:26 PM

$AAOI holding $100 for now Good sign IMO

@aleabitoredditJul 16, 2026 · 2:06 PM

@JClaydog I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.

@analysisopJul 15, 2026 · 2:47 PM

"AEHR’s bookings, customer transitions into volume production, and capacity expansion plans serve as POWERFUL LEADING INDICATORS 🔥 of where optical production is heading before that demand is fully reflected in the revenues of optical component and module suppliers" $AAOI $LITE

@photonbullJul 14, 2026 · 9:54 PM

Just so I can keep track of this: You can currently buy $AAOI shares for $126 After $AEHR earnings. I am expecting a good day tomorrow in sympathy and maybe a run up into their own earnings date

@investmentguru_Jul 14, 2026 · 4:17 PM

$AAOI To Boost Optical Transceivers Production For Data Centers – Retail Sees Firm Deeply Positioning Itself In AI Infrastructure Supply Chain https://t.co/GRW6SnS6lS

@ckcapitalxxJul 14, 2026 · 4:09 PM

With the $AAOI expansion announced today, here’s what it actually means for the company. Their bottleneck was never demand. It was capacity. $AAOI has order visibility stretching well over a year out, and $1B+ guided for 2026. The demand is already sitting there. They just physically can’t build fast enough to ship it all. That’s what 400,000 sq ft in Pearland, Texas fixes. Every square foot converts demand they can already see into revenue they can actually recognize. This isn’t speculative capacity hoping customers show up. The customers are already in line. It also changes their position in the supply chain. This is US made 800G and 1.6T production at the exact node the industry needs most, right as hyperscalers push to onshore their optics supply. When big companies want domestic transceiver capacity at scale, the list of options is short, and $AAOI just made itself a bigger part of it. And the timing lines up with the cycle. 1.6T mass adoption hits late 2026 into 2027. This capacity comes online right into that wave. They’re not building for today’s orders, they’re building for the ramp they can see coming. Companies don’t expand on hope. They do it when the orders are visible.

@aleabitoredditJul 14, 2026 · 2:35 PM

Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.

@analysisopJul 14, 2026 · 2:07 PM

Great insights about AI Photonics: - 800G Transceivers "to the moon" (in line with recent info from Innolight -see my related post-) Let's go $AAOI 🌛 (that execution though.... 🤞) - Copper cable business growing too at very interesting pace 👀 $CRDO - NPO mass production for late 2027 or early 2028. The tech is going to a kind of standardization - CPO is still in early stages (fragmented tech)

@kawzinvestsJul 14, 2026 · 1:35 PM

$AAOI just broke ground on nearly 400,000 sq ft of new manufacturing in Pearland, Texas. All of it dedicated to 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers. https://t.co/yRbJMdeuxU

@stocksavvyshayJul 14, 2026 · 12:58 PM

$AAOI has begun a nearly 400,000-square-foot manufacturing expansion in Texas to scale production of 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers. The added capacity will support rising AI and cloud networking demand. https://t.co/GDRYcg1oDQ

@analysisopJul 13, 2026 · 11:54 PM

AI Photonics bullish news from Innolight: "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" 👀🔥 $AAOI will print $$$

@photonbullJul 11, 2026 · 4:54 PM

Yeah most people just like to buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down Here is the script: Earnings will be great. Stock will be up. Everyone on X will buy back. $AAOI

@photonbullJul 10, 2026 · 8:17 PM

$AAOI has probably bottomed, or is close to doing so @WheelieInvestor is about to have a generational comeback with this stock

@crux_capital_Jul 10, 2026 · 8:05 PM

Another positive note for $AAOI Let's unpack this a bit. This is what management gave insight to on their latest earnings call: > Q2: $180 million to $198 million > Q3: A sequential revenue increase of 60% to 80% compared to Q2. So if Q2 lands at midpoint of $189 million, then we see 302.4 million to $340.2 > Q4: Sequential growth performance expected to be "similar" to Q3's performance. I read that as another 60-80% sequential growth. So off a Q2 midpoint of ~$321m, we're looking at 514.1m to 578.3m. So let's call it: > Q2: $189m > Q3: $321m > Q4: $546m They also guided for FY ~$1.1B Adding on Q1 of $151m, adding these numbers up gets us to ~$1.2b for the fiscal year Rosenblatt sees them being able to do $200m in Q2 and $300m in Q3. That is close to inline with what management has been seeing. Which is a nice confidence boost from a third party (although, they are long AAOI so we have to take that into account) It's important to know that AAOI was never a Q1 or even a Q2 story. It's all about the Q3 guide. If they don't guide Q3 near $300m, that means they are slipping and their ramp isn't going as expected. If they guide to $300m or above and there is better proof of the >$1.1b Fiscal year, the market will start to believe the story more. If we go into earnings with much lower expectations this time around, and we see better visibility into Q3, the setup will be quite strong. If we dont, the bear case will take a stronger foothold.

@aleabitoredditJul 10, 2026 · 6:17 PM

Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.

@jasonl_capitalJul 10, 2026 · 12:33 PM

3. $AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics Makes the 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers that connect AI data centers. Datacenter revenue up 154%. $324M+ order backlog. Ramping to 500,000 units per month by year end. All manufactured in Houston. https://t.co/pSb1uYJfxS

@analysisopJul 8, 2026 · 9:53 PM

I want $AAOI to recover more than for my money, to mock Citrini 😠

@crux_capital_Jul 7, 2026 · 7:49 PM

Alrighty, finalized all my thoughts on $AAOI and the B. Riley piece I had to spend a good amount of time getting familiar will all the technical aspects about RNG and MRC in relation to AAOI and the points being made. I laid all my thoughts out here: https://t.co/0EVEHr2UeG If you don't want to read it, I recommend downloading the PDF's you can source online, download a few transcripts from AAOI (OFC and Earnings at least) and plug them into your favorite LLM and have conversation around it and come to a conclusion on your own. It will probably miss things and fall short, but at least its a start. AOI is a company I have grown to become very familiar with and have covered extensively With the price being down ~50% from highs again, it's worth understanding where they are at Because just a couple months ago the price went from ~$130 to ~$78 (~40% drop). Then proceeded to hit ~$240 6 weeks later. It clearly has upside torque. The question is, is it in a position to do it again, or has the thesis broken?

@michaelsikandJul 6, 2026 · 11:25 PM

Be careful on $AAOI. There's a crazy amount of resentment from institutions such as B. Riley who MISSED the stock and were bearish as low as $15. Now making a massive intellectual leap on a nonsensical optical short thesis and literally name dropping $AAOI out of bitterness? Spite? For the virality? You really can't make up the misinformation and FUD in photonics right now it's just unbelievable. Earnings should put everyone in their place very soon. Nothing has changed in the fact that there isn't enough photonics tech in the world today and won't be for years. Everyone in my paid Substack + Discord knows I've been buying $AAOI all the way down from $160 in my trading portfolio, most recently loading at $114. I also increased $AAOI in my "Photonics Is Next" portfolio today. No asymmetry without FUD - NAWF.

@crux_capital_Jul 6, 2026 · 10:59 PM

This week I am putting myself in the bears shoes... I am bullish because I get as familiar as possible with the legitimate bull cases and work through them And acknowledge when they are real and need to be watched So a few things I'm working on: 1 - Oversupply concerns with all this massive capacity coming online + China ramp 2 - What VSCEL scale up would look like for the different layers 3 - What happens if scale up CPO gets pushed further back? 4 - What if B.Riley is right? How do we navigate MRC & RNG? is $AAOI cooked?

@bullofbritainJul 6, 2026 · 3:36 PM

Non-CPO names printing hard rn. I mentioned a few names quite alot $CRDO +14% $SMTC +7% $AAOI +6% Even if the SemiAnalysis news is wrong. These will still be relevent, and if the news is real, the bull case will be even stronger

@aleabitoredditJul 6, 2026 · 3:25 PM

@blkslymn I have large concentration in $SIVE to $AAOI as well. Feels bad to suffer drawdowns from institutional photonics delay bear posts. Just for the same firm to include it in their ETFs at the bottom. NFA, but I’m especially confident about those two going forward despite the drop

@investmentguru_Jul 6, 2026 · 12:42 PM

@SixSigmaCapital $AAOI one of the good buying opportunity IMO

@stocksavvyshayJul 6, 2026 · 11:41 AM

B. Riley says Amazon’s RNG and OpenAI’s MRC protocols create a “major structural risk” for optical infrastructure and photonics stocks by flattening AI data center networks. The concern is that these architectures reduce the need for multi-tier switching and switch-to-switch optical links potentially cutting structural transceiver demand by 40% to 50%. The firm says $AAOI is “especially vulnerable” because $AMZN and $ORCL were expected to be key customers behind the 800G and 1.6T ramp that could push AAOI quarterly revenue toward ~$1B by 2H27.

@photonbullJul 6, 2026 · 7:43 AM

$AAOI should be up on this but might be dragged down by the sector Copper plays like $CRDO should do well on this news

@aleabitoredditJul 1, 2026 · 5:28 PM

@blkslymn Where did I ever say that? Majority of my portfolio is concentrated in photonics with names like $SIVE and $AAOI. However, I’m allowed to talk about other exciting developments as well… Such as the first listed US humanoid player? I still think CPO/optics has the fastest TAM ramp out of any industry, just a bit early since I’m projecting revenue inflection really hits ~H2 2027. I’m personally down a lot past few weeks, but I’m convinced my thesis with laser chokepoints and others plays out.

@photonbullJul 1, 2026 · 3:05 PM

Dips are for buying here still IMO $AAOI probably my favourite here around low 140s since it got sold off a lot with photonics sector lately

@photonbullJun 30, 2026 · 9:09 PM

Every single time this stock makes you think a bounce is coming, it hits you with another -10% But I think the patient investors will be rewarded when the pump finally continues $AAOI

@analysisopJun 28, 2026 · 4:52 PM

@RJCcapital you can buy a Tier-sh^t "laser" company at x100000 P/E, or buy $AAOI at x2 on next year (IF they execute) If anyone can differentiate the two things.... well, they shouldn't be investing

@analysisopJun 27, 2026 · 6:35 PM

Market for Transceivers from $18B to 101B in 5 years, and you are bearish $AAOI anon?? 😉

@photonbullJun 27, 2026 · 2:37 PM

$AAOI has now given back almost the entire post war rally It even briefly dipped towards the March highs yesterday I suspect that the bounce back will be sharper than many expect NFA https://t.co/ELDGNl8tQe

@the_ai_investorJun 26, 2026 · 3:31 PM

Did you listen to me? Most micro/small-cap “bottleneck” stocks are already down ~50% or more in just the past month, while retail was still drunk on pumping posts. Put your life savings into random microcaps because a newly popular account posted a one-line “bottleneck” thesis, anyone? I owned one of them but since the end of last year, $AAOI, and already got out at 3x to buy $MU for the record, but many other stocks didn't make sense, as an example in my post below. AXT is now $67 stock, down from $140 when I posted about this.

@aleabitoredditJun 26, 2026 · 9:02 AM

@JClaydog Yeah sad to see. I'm personally very confident in $SIVE / $AAOI to revenue ramp with lasers in 2027 so I'm sleeping easy.

@photonbullJun 26, 2026 · 2:44 AM

This is the bottom Mark it $AAOI $NBIS $ASTS https://t.co/NgONnsIRDI

@analysisopJun 25, 2026 · 8:59 PM

@TheRayMyers Yep, that's a way to research a company. See the record order by $AAOI to a Semicap company. Ramp up is going to be epic

@aleabitoredditJun 25, 2026 · 4:42 PM

@hobielandrith I posted about $AAOI at $2.1B MC when someone called photonics "late". Then at $5.3B after earnings. Then $11B now. Unless their projections are wrong, doing $5.4B annual revenue ($471m/m) as a photonics company probably commands higher valuations. https://t.co/ORFGNdySSc

@jasonschipsJun 25, 2026 · 3:37 PM

Best scale up CPO stocks 1. $LITE - Lumentum 2. $AAOI - Lumentum with autism 3. $AIXA - Sells machines to Lumentum 4. 5344.T - Sells ceramic widgets to Lumentum

@jasonl_capitalJun 25, 2026 · 12:58 PM

10. $AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics Q1 revenue $151.1M, up 51% YoY. Fourth consecutive record quarter. Landed an upsized $71M order for 800G single-mode transceivers from a major hyperscaler. Building ~900,000 sq ft of Houston manufacturing space to ramp 800G and 1.6T production.

@blackpanthercapJun 25, 2026 · 9:00 AM

$MU earnings just confirmed the whole $AAOI thesis. Now send it to $300. -BP Not financial advice. https://t.co/KnrUHgeEzv

@damnang2Jun 25, 2026 · 3:37 AM

While writing this article, I found many positive points about $AAOI . I still believe there is a lot of opportunity here. In the free section, I covered the basic background of the company. In the paid section, I explained in detail why I am bullish, using my own set of metrics and framework. I hope you get a chance to read the article and use it to build your own conviction.

@investmentguru_Jun 25, 2026 · 12:56 AM

$AAOI is not a broken company — the demand thesis for high-speed optical interconnects powering AI data centers is completely real. The core debate isn’t whether AI needs optics — it’s whether $AAOI is a genuine bottleneck asset or a cyclical supplier temporarily enjoying peak demand at peak multiples. A stock that ran 600% in 12 months while still losing money needs flawless execution to hold its valuation — and right now, margin pressure combined with insider selling while analysts are pulling back expectations is a combination that tends to weigh heavily on a stock still searching for a floor. The technology is real. The demand cycle is real. But the entry point matters enormously on a name with this much volatility baked in. If you’re building a position — staged entries only, never full size at once Not financial advice.

@analysisopJun 24, 2026 · 6:33 PM

@babyfolio I bought $AAOI yesterday, today keeps dipping https://t.co/y0LeXLBsNa

@blackpanthercapJun 24, 2026 · 9:42 AM

$AAOI just had its worst day in months yd. Down nearly 14% to $147, on zero company-specific bad news. I entered at $92, haven’t taken any profit into the run-up. I am not selling here. Its a long-term hold for me. And my pt is MUCH higher. Here’s the part the selloff is ignoring: Management guided $1.1 billion in 2026 revenue while telling investors, on the record, that supply is expected to lag demand through 2027. That gap between what they can ship and what’s actually being asked for is the entire bull case in one sentence. This is a photonics company whose lasers are getting designed into 800G and 1.6T transceivers as the AI cluster interconnect bottleneck everyone’s suddenly worried about post-Micron. The dip looks scary. It’s a sympathy move tied to a memory stock’s earnings, not anything that happened to $AAOI actual order book. I’m watching the levels. If it holds, this was pure noise. For clarity, there’s a possibility that we could see $132 or $125 unless buyers steps in. -BP Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

@photonbullJun 23, 2026 · 9:36 PM

Me after $AAOI goes back to $160 tomorrow (I bought at $170) https://t.co/PyXNEtBz8P

@ckcapitalxxJun 23, 2026 · 5:33 PM

People are still bearish on $AAOI because they do not trust management to deliver. I get it. But look if they deliver what they say, bears will have nothing to say. By the middle of 2027 management expects roughly $471 million in data center revenue. Not for the year. Per month. They walked through it on the call. About $90 million a month from 100G and 400G, $217 million from 800G, and $164 million from 1.6T. Annualize it and that is around $5.6 billion a year from data center alone, before the cable business adds a dime. Now hold that against today. Full year 2026 guidance is just over $1.1 billion total. So the data center piece alone is being guided toward roughly five times the size of the whole company today, in about 18 months. The bear case is fair on one point. Management has a history of being lumpy and the losses are real, so the market wants to see it before it believes it. That is exactly why the stock keeps getting knocked down on every wobble. But that skepticism is also the opportunity. If they execute even most of the way to that number, the stock is trading at a tiny fraction of what the business becomes. The capacity math backs the plan up. They are going from 100,000 transceivers a month to over 650,000 by year end and over 930,000 by the end of 2027, and demand is still outrunning supply. They make their own lasers, so they are not stuck in someone else’s line. The doubters are focused on the track record. But others are focused on the order book and the capacity being built to fill it.

@analysisopJun 23, 2026 · 4:22 PM

ClassOne 💘 $AAOI "ClassOneTechnology secures record Solstice S8 orders from Applied Optoelectronics, highlighting rapid Scale-up of Photonics for AI Datacenters" - Multiple orders - Fully automated - 6-inch InP photonics - Largest customer order in ClassOne’s history Looks like Applied Optoelectronics is serious about the execution... 🔥🔥

@aleabitoredditJun 23, 2026 · 3:23 PM

@SMike1271547 I actually just added on $AAOI. Was talking about in general since everything dropped across the board, not specific names MB.

@crux_capital_Jun 23, 2026 · 11:00 AM

I stress test my investments $AAOI AOI has been one of my better performing stocks over the last 6 months And it is one of the companies I have covered the most both on X and SS. I have had a good amount of capital allocated along this crazy ride, and in order to feel comfortable doing so, I really need to explore every angle and know what would make the thesis break Check this out

@blackpanthercapJun 22, 2026 · 5:39 PM

@riskrewardalgo I like $AAOI very much

@aleabitoredditJun 22, 2026 · 2:19 PM

That’s for you to decide. But just throwing this out there: If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC. My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028. I’d expect ASP/margins to go up across the board as well. Especially as the industry is bottlenecked and $AMD + CSPs are going around hunting for LTAs.

@photonbullJun 22, 2026 · 7:48 AM

@TheRealWolfff There's a lot of good names, but I think $AAOI is cheap here due to their ATM overhang and it should pass soon I'm guessing. Very volatile name so it could move fast in either way

@analysisopJun 21, 2026 · 8:54 PM

"CPO is an architectural reset that upends the traditional pluggable optics market and consolidates various networking components into the hands of a few suppliers like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell" 👀 I add.... when it happens (thing no one knows exactly); meanwhile the Transceivers manufacturers can make A LOT of money $LITE $AAOI

@photonbullJun 21, 2026 · 7:30 PM

Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI is flat the last month but offered some crazy volatility, showing consistent ranging between ~160 and ~200 Some great ways to take advantage are to trade around a core position. Add a little on the deep red days, and sell it into the beautiful 20% green days I've personally been buying on some dips lately as I think it should continue to move higher once the ATM clears and the 'CPO delay' fud passes over Options selling also works on highly volatile names, but this is slightly more advanced and requires some more understanding Selling puts on red days and calls on green days on $AAOI would probably have worked out in your favor. Personally wouldn't recommend it though as $AAOI tends to break out after ranging for a while and the covered calls will cap the upside in that case Pretty insane to see it flat the last month, with all the 20% moves it's had Anyone taking advantage of the moves?

@blackpanthercapJun 21, 2026 · 5:07 PM

$AAOI can’t make 1.6T transceivers fast enough through 2027. We know what that means right? -BP This is not financial advice.

@bullofbritainJun 21, 2026 · 2:56 PM

This is completely not true. Copper is not “dead” Hyperscalers have said it verbatim: they will use copper in any way they can. It’s cheaper and lower power, and at the 3-7m reaches it wins. $CRDO’s last ER is the evidence. Their AEC (active copper) ramp came in stronger than expected, with the NPO/optical transition pushed further out than the “copper is dead” crowd claims. Copper isn’t dying, it’s being actively extended. And on $AAOI specifically, pluggables don’t even replace copper? CPO eventually cannibalises pluggables. The optical transition that he is excited about is the same one that eats $AAOI’s lunch not coppers.

@crux_capital_Jun 21, 2026 · 11:27 AM

It's a goal of mine to highlight bear cases more $AAOI I invest in companies that I spend many hours trying to understand every possible angle The reason I am bullish on these companies is BECAUSE I understand the bear cases. Not because I ignore them. So as I go about that process I will lay out the different main risks I see, which ones concern me the most, how I navigate them as an investor, and what would be a thesis breaker I try to do this with many of my current reports, but I will make it a goal to make them even more apparent going forward

@stocksavvyshayJun 20, 2026 · 3:32 PM

I also own a 4% position in $CRDO and a 2% position in $AAOI in the Growth Portfolio. https://t.co/7mVMsVk9rf

@crux_capital_Jun 20, 2026 · 11:09 AM

The bull / bear case for $AAOI ... As I am working through all the different oversupply angles, I spend a lot of time on AOI. Regardless of whether this is a near term China specific risk or a mid term more wide spread risk, it's worth thinking through $AAOI has significant internal laser capability and a large U.S. manufacturing expansion. Yet its revenue model remains heavily linked to finished transceiver units. When thinking about their insulation to oversupply... AAOI offers hyperscalers: > A U.S.-anchored supply chain > Internal laser technology > Automated manufacturing > Large planned 800G and 1.6T capacity > TAA-compatible product options > A hedge against China concentration > CPO and ELSFP optionality They say that U.S. production is attractive to customers and that automation limits the cost penalty associated with domestic manufacturing. Demand currently exceeds planned capacity through mid-2027. Even with the massive capacity ramp. AOI also has several concentrated risks: > Finished-module ASP exposure > Customer concentration > Large manufacturing ramp > Yield execution > Final-test capacity > Component availability > Working-capital demands > Forecast-demand conversion The planned move from 100,000 monthly units to more than 650,000 in less than a year is operationally demanding. A capacity ramp of that size can create inefficiency even when demand remains strong. In this report I will be diving into how insulated I see AOI being to any potential oversupply, why hyperscalers might choose them, what their advantages are, and what would concern me

@aleabitoredditJun 19, 2026 · 9:20 AM

@TW_trades_ Let’s just say bears are regarded when the entire industry is laser/capacity constrained. Then $AAOI comes in with $471m/month projections with a lot of independent supply, which happens to be located in the US too.

@aleabitoredditJun 18, 2026 · 9:38 AM

非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM 这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。

@crux_capital_Jun 18, 2026 · 3:56 AM

This idea isn't isolated $AAOI Rosenblatt a couple weeks ago put out a report and highlighted a general consensus among buysiders that $AMD was in talks with $AAOI about becoming a customer Any kind of agreement/investment from $AMD would be a major catalyst for $AAOI stock . This is speculative. Not a confirmed relationship

@investmentguru_Jun 18, 2026 · 2:01 AM

$AAOI filled today https://t.co/C95wV2Ey4N

@aleabitoredditJun 17, 2026 · 11:24 AM

Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.

@photonbullJun 16, 2026 · 3:25 PM

I am sorry to announce that it's so over again $AAOI

@blackpanthercapJun 16, 2026 · 1:36 PM

$AAOI coiling and eyeing $250–275 zone. > A possible MACD cross forming. > RSI at 54 and just crossed above 52. > Bullish SMA uptrend remains intact. > Clean bounce off the EMA 9. The Neighboring Price Bands are holding as dynamic support while price coils. With that orange curve kicking in and momentum starting to turn, the next leg higher looks loaded if we can clear the recent consolidation zone. Eyes on a sustained move through $200+. Risk defined below the bands / recent lows. -BP Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditJun 16, 2026 · 7:30 AM

@cchronobreakk I don't need to open any new US stock position when all my ideas from memory to photonics like $AAOI are still playing out?

@blackpanthercapJun 15, 2026 · 4:38 PM

The thesis on $AAOI is playing out in real time. Management said demand exceeds manufacturing capacity through mid-2027. Not a prediction. A constraint they are currently managing against. -BP Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_Jun 15, 2026 · 12:50 AM

$MU $AAOI nice add for me

@michaelsikandJun 14, 2026 · 6:47 PM

Guys we need to talk about $AAOI... $AAOI is one of the most controversial stocks in the world and I enjoy the disagreement. Pretty cool that's it up 3x since I went long with many thousands of investors riding it with me up some portion of that gain on @joinautopilot. But what's cooler is that I think it's still asymmetrical here. So let's break it down and figure out where we're at $170/share today. Management argues they can get to $471M in monthly transceiver revenue by Q2 2027. If you're new to photonics, this is because transceivers are one of the hottest commodities in data centers right now (they translate electricity to light) and 3 hyperscalers are working with $AAOI on this. At management's 40% gross margin target, that's ~$5.6B in annualized revenue. Run past opex, interest, tax, dilution, we might land around $14-15 in EPS on that run rate. That's a 2028 number though because 2027 is the ramp mid year, so let's call it bull case $9 of EPS in 2027. So at $170/share right now, on these calcs, you're paying 19x 2027 earnings, falling dramatically to 12x for 2028. Don't trust management? Fair. Haircut both the revenue and the margin target by 30%, let's say we get to $4B at a 28% gross margin instead of $5.6B at 40%. You still land near ~$6 in EPS, just over the analyst mean estimate for 2027E. That's 28x at $170, still WAY cheaper than $LITE and $COHR trade right now. $LITE is at a 50x NTM forward PE per Fiscal AI. $COHR is at 47x NTM forward PE per Fiscal AI. You're paying a fraction of the multiples of its peer group for a faster growing business because execution is still a huge question mark. If you are an asymmetric trader like me, you might have a large concentrated position in $AAOI for these reasons. I do believe the stock at $170 is still a solid entry point and I began loading again heavily in the 160's.

@investmentguru_Jun 12, 2026 · 10:44 AM

$MU and $AAOI doing well in portfolio after I added here

@aleabitoredditJun 11, 2026 · 2:58 PM

@WENXIN229986 that's literally for you to decide. If you think they can hit $471m/month revenue near the end of H1 2027. Potential seems high to me with $AAOI at $13.4B. optical names are very volatile.

@jasonl_capitalJun 11, 2026 · 1:01 PM

5. $AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics (PEG ~0.7x) Revenue $151.1M, up 51% YoY. Fourth consecutive record quarter. Landed a 1.6T transceiver volume order from a major hyperscaler worth over $200M. Building the largest U.S. production capacity for 800G and 1.6T transceivers. This company was losing money two years ago.

@wolfgangkasperJun 10, 2026 · 6:23 PM

I paperhanded $AAOI in February in the 60s. I do blame myself. https://t.co/NtexSa7Kui

@kawzinvestsJun 10, 2026 · 2:33 PM

@Hartik__ Yep and people are sleeping on the ELS ramp. $AAOI going from 5k lasers a month to 400k a month by 2027.

@crux_capital_Jun 10, 2026 · 1:39 PM

I’ll be honest when I first saw this I thought man, $aaoi is gonna rip Because they are such a strong pluggeable focused story And then it sold off the most But the reaction was wrong imo

@photonbullJun 10, 2026 · 8:55 AM

$AAOI fell 14% on the SemiAnalysis CPO delay report. That’s a categorical error. AAOI sells pluggable transceivers. CPO slipping to 2028 or 2029 doesn’t threaten the pluggable era, it extends it. The numbers were already strong. Q1 datacenter revenue grew 154% to $81.4M on first 800G volume shipments, full year guidance was raised above $1.1B with $140M+ in non GAAP operating income, and management says demand exceeds supply through at least mid 2027. Capacity goes from 100K units per month to 650K+ by year end. The bear case on every pluggable name was CPO displacement starting 2027. The most credible voice in AI infrastructure just pushed that timeline out two years. The market sold AAOI alongside the CPO names anyway.

@ckcapitalxxJun 10, 2026 · 2:47 AM

If I had to bet on one sector go give me insane returns from here, it is photonics. Not close. Every AI cluster is useless if it cannot move data between GPUs fast enough. Compute gets the headlines but connectivity is the real bottleneck. The optical market triples to $36 billion this decade and every generation from 800G to 1.6T to 3.2T brings a brand new upgrade cycle. $AAOI and $CRDO are my favorite.

@analysisopJun 9, 2026 · 10:57 PM

$AAOI great insights on why Hyperscalers look for vertical integration for Transceivers (remember, Applied Optoelectronics is one of the VERY FEW companies with InP Laser manufacturing capacity): "As we move toward 1.6T, the focus is expanding beyond raw bandwidth to Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) and signal integrity. Solving these requires changes at the laser level—not just the module housing. A fragmented supply chain struggles with this kind of cross-disciplinary optimization" "At the scale of an AI mega-cluster, small variables become systemic risks. Differences in laser efficiency show up as thermal spikes or signal integrity issues at 800G and beyond. By controlling the manufacturing environment, we can provide predictable performance across hundreds of thousands of units"

@michaelsikandJun 9, 2026 · 10:45 PM

$AAOI got hit hard today. I've been covering this stock since $50 and saw low 160's as a clear buying opportunity on America's photonics factory. The Semi Analysis report that CPO is delayed undoubtedly threw water on photonics names (add in Iran tensions). A CPO delay was always a major risk factor with optics given how short term this market thinks. But what any optics investor should know is that nothing changed in the thesis around $AAOI's asymmetrical ramp to ~$470M monthly revenue by mid 2027. $AAOI is focused on NPO or near packaged optics or 800/1.6T "pluggables/transceivers". This is the current framework for how optics are transforming the data center. While CPO is THE holy grail of photonics and AAOI is working on a product there (ELSFP) ramping 2027, the revenue growth investors are betting on is in the short term NPO opportunity. If anything, a slip in CPO extends the runway for pluggables, which is a tailwind for the stock. I continue to see asymmetry in $AAOI after a parabolic move for many reasons in that there isn't a tech timeline constraint, the natsec advantage to onshore fabs, and the capital on hand they can deploy to achieve this through the recent ATMs.

@photonbullJun 9, 2026 · 9:37 PM

Just got home Nice to see the market bounced a little Surely $AAOI is not down on a CPO delay rumor? This should be bullish for them I have added exposure on this dip https://t.co/X36Eo0D61C

@stocksavvyshayJun 9, 2026 · 7:30 PM

The reason I own $AAOI is because it builds the optical connectivity that lets AI chips move data across data centers. As AI scales toward 500K+ GPU factories, copper becomes the bottleneck & optics become plumbing that moves data fast enough for training & inference to work. https://t.co/uzbSdRItsy

@analysisopJun 8, 2026 · 7:02 PM

$AAOI growth capacity figures..... it doesn't sound bad 😅🔥🔥 "It costs approx $120M in capex to increase capacity by 100k transceivers... which is 1.2M per year... at an average of $500 ASP... so they're spending $120M to generate $600M revenues per year at 35-40% gross margins"

@kevinvestingytJun 8, 2026 · 6:53 PM

You’re not bullish enough on $AAOI

@photonbullJun 8, 2026 · 2:18 PM

Never fade $AAOI https://t.co/4dm0clvMw2

@ckcapitalxxJun 7, 2026 · 3:02 PM

$AAOI could have the next $SNDK type run.

@bullofbritainJun 7, 2026 · 10:31 AM

$AAOI will be one of those stocks that is completely obvious like $SNDK - it goes up 5,000% and you are wondering what spell was cast on you to not buy it. Im long $AAOI till the foreseeable.

@photonbullJun 6, 2026 · 12:52 PM

@BabySharkRV Big fan but went for $AAOI instead here

@photonbullJun 5, 2026 · 2:35 PM

Don't fade the strength in $AAOI Reminds me of $NBIS during the Iran War When the fud was over, it exploded to the upside Let's see how this ages in a few weeks

@analysisopJun 5, 2026 · 2:08 PM

@aleabitoreddit "I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute?" A x3 buddy, a x3 $AAOI

@analysisopJun 4, 2026 · 9:16 PM

Gems in the new $AAOI article: - "800G Supply May Tighten Faster Than Expected" 👀🔥 That reminds me the current situation with Memory, how DRAM DDR4 tightened even more than DDR5 due to lack of Supply, despite being the previous generation with much worse specs; it continues: "As hyperscaler demand for 1.6T pulls manufacturing attention and capital, the supply picture for 800G is not guaranteed to be as straightforward as it is today" Confirmation of Production numbers at 4-Jun-2026: 🔥🔥🙌 - "AOI is on track to achieve a combined 800G and 1.6T production capacity exceeding 500,000 units per month by the end of 2026 [...] this level of capacity visibility and U.S.-based scale is critical when signing agreements with 18- to 24-month delivery horizons" Very interesting; timelines of years (18-24 months) to qualify modules ==> moats - "A module qualified for one switch and NIC combination may require extensive validation work when the platform changes—which it frequently does between planning and deployment. The practical recommendation is to treat optical qualification as a parallel workstream to compute procurement, not a downstream dependency" 👀

@photonbullJun 4, 2026 · 5:23 PM

$AAOI The volatility can be your friend on this name Last week everyone had forgotten about it Now it is a favourite again Long $AAOI https://t.co/IBGsxQgkur

@michaelsikandJun 3, 2026 · 4:12 PM

I have a theory. $AAOI CEO Dr. Thompson Lin wants to become a billionaire. It's not often the path to a 10 figure net worth is this clear. PhD Lin is not stupid. $AAOI is his baby that he founded in 1997. He started it out of a University of Houston lab and built it in Sugar Land, Texas. Now you're telling me after all these years, he's going to pass up the chance to make it the Intel of Optics? Why do you think they're raising so much with ATMs? Onshore laser fabs aren't cheap, but once built they are a major natsec advantage. To put this in context, they were discussing CHIPS act funding to achieve their goals (very ambitious). Lin holds 2.26M shares, worth ~$430M at $191. At ~$443 a share that stake crosses $1B. That is a 2.3x from here at ~$35B market cap, a number I feel is very feasible given their ramp to a run rate of over $400M/mo or ~$5B in revenue run rate in 2027. The incentives look aligned here for this cracked scientist CEO, even if he made his first informative sell in years a few weeks back (after strictly buying it before). Give him some respect, he made a 10x+ on buying his own stock with $1M of his own money. For someone worth $400M+ selling $26M is like you liquidating a little in your brokerage. But it is very critical you understand the stock so you don't get shaken out. PE ratios and estimates you read are probably wrong given the ramp.

@wolfgangkasperJun 3, 2026 · 3:55 PM

This guy called $AAOI when it was trading under $40 Now he’s got his eyes on $BRUN I added 2500 shares

@ckcapitalxxJun 2, 2026 · 6:27 PM

The photonics sector just got hit over the last month and it handed you one of the best names in the entire space at a discount. $AAOI is the one I want to own. Here is the simple truth about what is happening. Every AI cluster on earth needs a way to move massive amounts of data between chips at insane speeds. That is photonics. It is the physical plumbing of the entire AI buildout. And as clusters get bigger the demand for that plumbing does not grow in a straight line. It explodes. $AAOI sits right at the center of it, and they have one advantage almost nobody else in the space has. They make their own lasers in-house. Most competitors buy their lasers from third parties which means they are stuck waiting in line for supply in a market where supply is the bottleneck. $AAOI controls their own. That is why two to three hyperscalers have told them they would buy every single transceiver they can produce. When you own the bottleneck input you can fill orders nobody else can. And the numbers back it up. Revenue grew 83% to a record $456 million. 2026 guidance raised to over $1.1 billion. $324 million in confirmed 800G and 1.6T hyperscale orders on the books. Capacity expansions across Texas. Management guided that supply will lag demand all the way through 2027. The order book is bigger than it has ever been. The stock got knocked down on a sector pullback and a dilution overhang that has nothing to do with the actual business. We have watched this exact pattern before. It sells off on fear and then re-rates right back as the buyers who understand the order book step in. The fear created the discount. The fundamentals never moved. A run back toward all time highs feels a lot closer than the current price suggests.

@analysisopJun 1, 2026 · 9:00 PM

@crux_capital_ @JoshTradeOption IF... IF they executes well, $AAOI by faaaaar

@moninvestorJun 1, 2026 · 7:20 PM

$AAOI is the next $SNDK. I hope you're right. Started a position this morning, already up 19%. 😁

@ckcapitalxxJun 1, 2026 · 6:43 PM

Everyone sees $AAOI as an optical transceiver company. The real story is that they own the bottleneck input in a world where the input is the bottleneck. Most optical companies buy their lasers from third parties. In a supply constrained market that means they are gated by someone else's laser allocation. They can only build what their supplier lets them build. $AAOI makes its own indium phosphide lasers and light engines in house. Fully vertically integrated. So when the CEO says two to three hyperscalers would like to buy every transceiver they can make, that is actually credible because they are not waiting in anyone else's laser queue. Vertical integration goes from a margin footnote to the entire reason they can fill orders nobody else can. And as volume scales they capture both the laser margin and the module margin. Now here is why the capacity ramp is not the risk people think it is. Normally a 5.5x capacity expansion is speculative. You build inventory and hope demand shows up. Here demand is described as effectively infinite relative to supply with roughly two years of loading forecast. In that environment the ramp is not speculative capex. It is a revenue conversion machine. Every incremental unit of capacity converts directly to revenue at good margin. And the margins are already moving. Gross margin went from 24.8% to 30% year over year. Layer on the mix shift to 800G and 1.6T at higher ASP, automated manufacturing absorbing fixed costs as volume scales, and CATV efficiencies, and gross margin plausibly pushes toward 35 to 40%. The $200 million plus first volume 1.6T order matters less for the dollars than for what it proves. $AAOI cleared the highest technical bar at the leading edge with a major hyperscaler. Qualifications are sticky. Hyperscalers do not requalify optical suppliers casually. Omdia projects 1.6T becomes the dominant segment by 2029 to 2030. Being early qualified on the part the entire market is migrating to is a durable expanding annuity. And there are free options the market is not pricing at all. LPO adoption that removes the DSP and cuts power exactly where AI data centers need it. A US manufacturing premium as hyperscalers derisk away from China and $AAOI is one of the only US based volume makers. And potential customer prepayments that could fund the capex, derisk the balance sheet, and kill the dilution overhang entirely.

@aleabitoredditJun 1, 2026 · 5:22 PM

I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is building up capacity. Just a general rule of thumb in general if your name isnt space or quantum, markets are forward looking round 8 months. That revenue ramp inflection point is coming, more of a matter of when, waiting for it, and embracing volatility in the meantime.

@crux_capital_Jun 1, 2026 · 1:45 PM

It’s clear to me that $AAOI Is going to lead optics out of this slump Whenever the market allows it

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