CK Capital (@ckcapitalxx) on Surfaced

CK Capital (@ckcapitalxx) on Surfaced

Recent calls

22 calls

@ckcapitalxxJun 4, 2026 · 1:52 AM

The Blue Origin explosion scared people off $ASTS. The two biggest catalysts in this company's history are now both right around the corner and barely anyone is talking about it. Catalyst one. The first ever batch launch. BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 going up together on a SpaceX Falcon 9 in mid-June. And the satellites are already there. BlueBirds 8 and 10 have arrived at Cape Canaveral. BlueBird 9 is en route from Texas. This is not a promise. The hardware is on the ground waiting for the pad. Why this is the biggest launch catalyst in the story. Up to now the constellation went up one satellite at a time. A batch changes the entire trajectory. Three at once, then monthly launches behind it. BlueBirds 11 through 33 already in advanced production with phased arrays done through 28. Manufacturing running at up to six satellites per month. That is the path from 6 satellites today toward 45 to 60 by year end. And the multi provider strategy means SpaceX carries this batch regardless of the Blue Origin setback. Catalyst two. The SpaceX IPO. SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus on May 20 and is heading toward a listing at a $1.75 trillion target valuation. That single event reprices the entire space sector. Every analyst and every retail investor is about to pour into space stocks for the first time. And $ASTS is the highest quality pure play space connectivity name on the public market. When the SpaceX IPO dominates every headline the money that cannot get allocated shares looks for the next best thing. That trail leads directly here. Two catalysts. Both within weeks. A batch launch that proves the constellation can scale and an IPO that floods the entire sector with capital and attention. While everyone fixates on the rocket that exploded, the two events that actually move $ASTS are both right around the corner.

@ckcapitalxxMay 29, 2026 · 10:12 PM

The Blue Origin New Glenn explosion is a real setback and sucks to see. New Glenn blew up on the pad during a static fire test last night at Cape Canaveral. This matters for $ASTS because New Glenn was a key launch partner going forward. The last New Glenn mission already failed to deploy an $ASTS BlueBird due to an upper stage failure. Now the rocket exploded entirely. Blue Origin will likely have to pause the New Glenn program for an extended investigation. That removes a launch vehicle from the equation right as $ASTS was trying to ramp cadence toward 45 satellites by year end. The good news. The upcoming BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 batch launch is on SpaceX Falcon 9 not New Glenn. So the immediate next launch is not affected. SpaceX remains the workhorse. But losing New Glenn as a second launch provider for an extended period makes the aggressive end of year constellation target harder. Fewer launch options means less flexibility and a tighter timeline. I am still long. The thesis is intact. But anyone pretending this is nothing is not being straight with you. It is a setback. SpaceX now carries the load.

@ckcapitalxxMay 27, 2026 · 8:04 PM

SEND IT HIGHER. $ASTS

@ckcapitalxxMay 26, 2026 · 3:12 PM

$ASTS up 19% today sitting at $126 Inching back toward all time highs. The last couple months are with $ASTS needs to be talked about because it is one of the most important lessons in conviction investing. Six weeks ago $ASTS was cut in half. $130 down to $60. Nothing about the fundamental story changed. Not one thing. The satellites were still going up. The carriers were still signed. AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile all still in the network. 3.3 billion addressable subscribers still waiting. The market just panicked. And the market was wrong. I added everything on the way down. Every single dip. Because when a stock gets cut in half on zero fundamental change that is not a warning sign. That is an opportunity. Now look at where we are. $126.51 today. $48.56 billion market cap. Batch launch coming mid-June. SpaceX IPO repricing the entire space sector. T-Mobile integration underway. Government and defense revenue still completely unpriced. The people who sold at $60 are watching this from the sidelines. The fundamentals never changed. The price did. That is the entire game.

@ckcapitalxxMay 25, 2026 · 3:11 PM

3.3 billion people are about to get connected to the internet for the first time. And $ASTS is the company doing it. Think about what that actually means. There are still billions of people on earth who have never had reliable mobile connectivity. Remote villages. Rural communities. Developing nations without the infrastructure to support traditional cell towers. People who have been on the wrong side of the digital divide their entire lives. $ASTS does not need to build a single cell tower to reach them. Every carrier already has their existing subscribers covered. What $ASTS provides is the layer above. The satellite network that reaches every corner of the earth that terrestrial infrastructure never will. Dead zones eliminated. Oceans covered. Mountain ranges covered. Every square mile of the planet covered. AT&T. Verizon. T-Mobile. 60 operators globally. 3.3 billion existing subscribers sitting inside the network waiting for the switch to flip. No new device. No new plan. No new anything. Just coverage everywhere. The business model is the most elegant in the market. Carriers pay a wholesale fee per subscriber. $ASTS collects on every user that opts in without acquiring a single one themselves. Zero customer acquisition cost. Pure recurring infrastructure revenue. Starlink fought for 10 million subscribers one at a time over 5 years. $ASTS has 3.3 billion waiting. The satellites are launching. The carriers are ready. The switch is about to flip.

@ckcapitalxxMay 24, 2026 · 3:23 PM

$ASTS is sitting only 15% off its all time high and the catalyst stack coming is one of the most exciting I have seen for any stock I follow. Here’s what is coming. BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 already shipped. First ever batch launch on Falcon 9 coming mid-June. Every satellite that goes up expands coverage and pulls commercial billing forward. This is not a future event. The satellites are physically on their way to the launch pad. Monthly launches confirmed after that. BlueBirds 11 through 33 in advanced production. Manufacturing running at 10 plus satellites per month. The constellation builds in real time from here. SpaceX IPO coming in June. $1.75 trillion target valuation. Every analyst and retail investor about to pour into the space sector simultaneously. $ASTS is the highest quality pure play space connectivity stock on the market. The tide lifts everything around it. T-Mobile just joined. Every major US carrier now signed. 500 million US subscribers inside the network. 3.3 billion addressable subscribers globally. Government and defense contracts still completely unpriced. The US military paid Starlink hundreds of millions within two years of commercial deployment. $ASTS is next. 15% off all time highs. Five catalysts stacking on top of each other between now and year end. The risk reward here is as good as it gets.

@ckcapitalxxMay 20, 2026 · 6:03 PM

$ASTS is sitting at $90 today. Here are 4 catalysts coming that I think send this well past $150. Catalyst 1. BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 batch launch mid-June on Falcon 9. The first multi-satellite batch launch in the program. Every satellite that goes up expands coverage and pulls forward commercial billing. This is the moment the constellation starts scaling in real time. Catalyst 2. Monthly launches through end of 2026. Management confirmed launches every one to two months targeting 45 satellites in orbit by year end. BlueBirds 11 through 33 already in advanced production. Manufacturing running at 10 plus satellites per month. The cadence is set. Catalyst 3. SpaceX IPO. SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 and is targeting a June Nasdaq listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Every analyst and every retail investor about to pour into the space sector for the first time. $ASTS is the highest quality pure play US-listed space connectivity stock. The rising tide lifts everything around it. Catalyst 4. Government and defense contracts. The CEO confirmed government as a meaningful revenue opportunity. Dedicated sovereign coverage agreements in active conversation. The US military paid Starlink hundreds of millions within two years of commercial deployment. $ASTS is next. $90 today. Four catalysts stacking between now and year end. $150 is not a stretch. It is the base case.

@ckcapitalxxMay 19, 2026 · 5:40 PM

Up 9% on this buy. $ASTS Was obvious this dip would get ate up considering what has happened recently with $ASTS news.

@ckcapitalxxMay 18, 2026 · 6:38 PM

T-Mobile just made $ASTS a whole lot more valuable. Before today AT&T and Verizon gave them access to 370 million US subscribers. T-Mobile just added 130 million more. That is 500 million US subscribers now inside the network. At $5 per user per month and just 10% adoption that is $3 billion in annual revenue from the US alone. At 20% adoption that is $6 billion. And that is before you touch the 2.8 billion subscribers sitting in the 60 global carrier partnerships. T-Mobile was the last missing piece of the US market. It just got added. The revenue ceiling on this company just got significantly higher. $ASTS

@ckcapitalxxMay 17, 2026 · 5:24 PM

People are sleeping on what $ASTS actually is as a business. Let me show you why this could become one of the greatest cash flow machines ever built. First understand the comparison. Netflix has 325 million subscribers paying $15 a month. $45 billion in annual revenue. $380 billion market cap. They spent 15 years and tens of billions in content spend acquiring every single one of those subscribers one at a time. Spotify has 290 million premium subscribers paying $11 a month. $17 billion in annual revenue. $120 billion market cap. Same story. Years of losses. Billions in marketing. Fighting for every user. $ASTS does not work like that. $ASTS charges carriers a wholesale fee per subscriber. AT&T does the acquisition. Verizon handles the billing. T-Mobile manages the churn. $ASTS provides the network layer and collects on every user that opts in. No customer acquisition cost. No marketing spend. No churn risk. Pure recurring infrastructure revenue. Now here is the simple math. 3.3 billion subscribers sitting inside partner carrier networks today. Management is guiding 2027 revenue approaching $1 billion with half the commercial pipeline already booked. Analysts project $1.6 billion in 2028 with profitability expected that same year. At $5 per user per month on 1 billion subscribers that is $60 billion in annual revenue. Netflix generates $45 billion serving 325 million subscribers they had to fight for one at a time. $ASTS has access to 10x that subscriber base through partners who already own the customer relationship. FCC authorized up to 248 satellites. They are targeting 45 to 60 by end of 2026. The revenue curve has barely started. This is not just a satellite company. It is one of the most scalable subscription infrastructure businesses ever built.

@ckcapitalxxMay 16, 2026 · 8:22 PM

T-Mobile just joined the $ASTS ecosystem. This stock could easily soar to over $2,000 a share and here is how. Every major US carrier is now on board. Let me show you what that actually means for the revenue math. AT&T. Verizon. T-Mobile. 500 million US subscribers combined. Plus 50+ carriers globally covering another 2.7 billion. Total addressable base: 3.2 billion existing subscribers. No new device. No new plan. The carrier flips a switch. Now here is where it gets interesting. A December 2025 GSMA survey asked global consumers if they would pay extra for satellite connectivity. 60% said yes. 56% in the US. 89% in India. That is declared demand from people already inside the $ASTS carrier network. $ASTS nets $5 per user per month on the broadband add on tier. Here is what the math looks like at two adoption scenarios on 3.2 billion subscribers. 30% adoption — half of what the survey says people are willing to pay: 960 million users. $57.6 billion in annual revenue. $1,107 per share at 15x P/S. 60% adoption — full survey demand: 1.92 billion users. $115 billion in annual revenue. $2,215 per share at 15x P/S. And that was before T-Mobile joined. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile do not spend years integrating satellite infrastructure for a niche product. They are building this as a standard feature for every subscriber. The survey says 60% of the world already wants to pay for this. The carriers are ready. The satellites are launching. T-Mobile joining is not a footnote. It is the last piece of the distribution puzzle.

@ckcapitalxxMay 15, 2026 · 3:13 PM

I don’t think people fully understand what just happened with $ASTS and T-Mobile. Everyone is treating this like a minor partnership announcement. It is not. Let me explain why this changes everything. Before today $ASTS had AT&T and Verizon. Two of the three major US carriers. T-Mobile was the holdout. The one carrier actively working with Starlink instead. The bear case for $ASTS has always been that T-Mobile stays on Starlink and a third of the US market stays out of reach. That bear case just died. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile announced a joint venture for direct-to-device satellite connectivity. All three. Together. And the CEO of $ASTS posted one thing in response. “Space-based cellular broadband to every American is coming.” And tagged all three carriers. You do not tag all three carriers if you are not the infrastructure behind all three carriers. Now think about what this actually means for the math. AT&T covers 230 million subscribers. Verizon covers 140 million. T-Mobile just added 130 million more. That is 500 million US subscribers now sitting inside the $ASTS distribution network. Every single one of them reachable without a new device, without a new plan, without any friction at all. The entire US market. Every major carrier. One satellite network. Starlink spent 5 years and 10,000 satellites fighting for every single one of their 10 million subscribers. $ASTS just got access to 500 million existing ones with the flip of a switch. This is not a partnership announcement. This is the entire US wireless industry consolidating around $ASTS as the satellite layer. People are going to look back at today as the moment the thesis became inevitable.

@ckcapitalxxMay 14, 2026 · 2:58 PM

$ASTS is just getting started.

@ckcapitalxxMay 12, 2026 · 3:02 AM

$ASTS down 12% after hours because of a revenue miss. People are acting like we didn't know exactly what was told. This is a pre-revenue company building a constellation. Quarterly revenue is lumpy and always has been. Anyone surprised by $14.7 million was not paying attention. Here is what actually came out of the call. BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 confirmed on Falcon 9 mid-June. BlueBirds 11 through 33 in advanced production. Manufacturing running at 10 plus satellites per month. Full year guidance reaffirmed at $150 to $200 million. $3.5 billion in cash. Three new government awards. TELUS signed with an equity investment. 98.9 Mbps peak speeds proven in orbit. Nothing broke. Nothing changed. The drop is the opportunity.

@ckcapitalxxMay 9, 2026 · 4:45 PM

$ASTS earnings drop Monday after close. Revenue does not matter. Here is what actually does. Q1 revenue consensus is $37 million. Nobody cares. The company already guided $150 to $200 million for the full year and $1 billion approaching in 2027. The quarterly number is noise. Here is what the call needs to deliver. Satellite production update. The Midland Texas facility is 95% vertically integrated. How many BlueBirds are assembled and ready to ship. The target was 60 ready to ship and 45 in orbit by end of 2026. Where does that stand after the BB7 loss. Falcon 9 launch timeline confirmation. Three BlueBirds are scheduled on a SpaceX Falcon 9 in mid-June. Any update on the launch cadence after that. Every one to two months through year end is the plan. Does that hold. Commercial service activation date. H2 2026 is the current guidance. The market wants more specificity. A concrete window would move this stock hard. Government contract update. FirstNet is granted. The SHIELD Missile Defense Agency prime contractor position is live. Any new government awards or task orders would be a massive catalyst the market is not pricing in. New MNO partner announcements. Management said in March they expect more carriers to join the network in 2026. Any new carrier partnerships named on the call adds billions in potential subscriber reach overnight. 2027 guidance refinement. The path to $1 billion in 2027 revenue is the number every institutional model is built around. Any raise or increased confidence in that number re-rates the stock immediately. Revenue is a footnote on Monday. The constellation build and the commercial activation timeline are all that matter. $ASTS

@ckcapitalxxMay 8, 2026 · 5:04 PM

These are my 3 biggest positions and ones that I believe will generate generational wealth over the coming years. $ASTS. The only space based cellular network that connects directly to the phone already in your pocket. One of only two companies on earth with an SCS license. Spectrum worth $15 to $20 billion. $3.9 billion in cash. FCC fully approved. FirstNet granted. Commercial service activating this year. The entire commercial and defense business trading at $6 billion after you back out the spectrum value. $NBIS. $46 billion in contracted backlog from Microsoft and Meta. Nvidia invested $2 billion directly with preferred GPU access. 16 plus data centers across the US and Europe. 2 gigawatts of contracted power. 547% revenue growth. The man who rebuilt Russia’s Google from nothing running the company. Path to $500 billion is a math problem. $DRAM. The first and only pure play memory ETF ever created. Every single company wins from the same structural shortage that does not end until 2028 at the earliest and potentially 2030. SK Hynix printing $26 billion in operating profit per quarter on an HBM monopoly. SNDK up over 2,000% in 14 months. Micron order books stretching into 2027. The silent bottleneck of the entire AI revolution. Space. AI infrastructure. Memory. Three of the most important buildouts in human history happening simultaneously. These are my biggest positions.

@ckcapitalxxMay 7, 2026 · 5:46 PM

$ASTS market cap today is $26 billion. The Ligado spectrum rights alone are worth $20 billion. That means you are getting the entire commercial and defense business for $6 billion. $3.9 billion in cash on top of that. AT&T and SpaceX each paid $22 to $23 billion for just spectrum. $ASTS owns spectrum worth $20 billion on that same comp and is one of only two companies on earth with an SCS license. Amazon does not have one. SpaceX does not have a D2D product yet. Both are years away. $ASTS has one within the year. The entire commercial business, the defense contracts, the FCC authorization, the FirstNet grant, and 3 billion subscribers waiting on partner networks. All of it for $6 billion after you back out the spectrum. Know what you own. $ASTS

@ckcapitalxxMay 6, 2026 · 2:39 PM

The Rakuten trading plan on $ASTS is finally done. The SEC filing just confirmed it. The pre arranged selling plan has been fully executed. They went from 31 million shares down to 15.5 million. Sold roughly 16 million shares between mid April and May 5 at prices ranging from $65 to $103. The overhang that has been mechanically capping this stock for months is gone. Now look at what is directly ahead. BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 shipping within 30 days. Falcon 9 batch launches building the constellation to 25 satellites and commercial service activation. Earnings on May 11. First call with FCC full commercial authorization and FirstNet both granted. Revenue guidance update. Commercial service timeline. Analyst initiations incoming. Every headwind this stock has faced since January has been external. Rakuten selling to survive their debt load. A Blue Origin launch failure. None of it had anything to do with the business. The business has FCC approval. FirstNet granted. $3.9 billion in cash. AT&T. Verizon. Vodafone. TELUS. 3 billion potential subscribers waiting. The forced seller is done. Everything from here is the thesis playing out. $ASTS

@ckcapitalxxMay 5, 2026 · 1:49 AM

I promise you $ASTS will never see $30 bro People who think this stock will ever go below 50 are delusional.

@ckcapitalxxMay 3, 2026 · 11:10 PM

Me and bro living life when $ASTS completes batch launches and gets 25 sats up and starts commercialization. https://t.co/hyTCsdyOwD

@ckcapitalxxMay 2, 2026 · 4:15 PM

$ASTS will be next to give these returns

@ckcapitalxxApr 30, 2026 · 9:44 PM

The next few months for $ASTS are going to be something special. BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 shipping in 30 days. Falcon 9 batch launches every one to two months after that. FCC full commercial authorization already granted. FirstNet already granted. The constellation is being built right now on the most reliable rocket in history. Commercial service activates at 25 satellites. That happens this year. Buckle up. $ASTS