$MRVL

@thevalueistMay 27, 2026 · 10:43 PM

$MRVL KEY READ-THROUGHS FROM MARVELL TECHNOLOGY Q1 FY27 EARNINGS CALL Marvell’s Q1 FY27 call was a broad AI infrastructure acceleration signal, not merely a company-specific beat-and-raise. The most important cross-market message was that hyperscale AI spending is shifting from a GPU-centric procurement cycle into a broader systems architecture cycle where networking, optical interconnect, custom ASICs, memory attachment, retimers, CXL, advanced packaging, and data center power constraints are becoming incremental bottlenecks and therefore incremental profit pools. Marvell raised FY27 revenue expectations to nearly $11.5bn, raised FY28 revenue expectations to approximately $16.5bn, guided FY27 data center growth to approximately 50%, guided FY28 data center growth to approximately 55%, and raised FY27 interconnect growth expectations to more than 70%. The most actionable broader-market implications are positive for AI networking, optical components, high-speed interconnect, foundry/advanced packaging, memory, power infrastructure, and select EDA/IP vendors; negative or mixed for legacy networking, traditional telco infrastructure, companies exposed to non-AI infrastructure cycles, and narrow pure-play connectivity vendors facing Marvell’s increasingly integrated competitive posture. AI NETWORKING INTENSITY IS RISING FASTER THAN OVERALL CLOUD CAPEX (READ-THROUGH 1) Supporting call evidence: Marvell stated that “networking becomes increasingly critical with each new generation of AI infrastructure,” specifically because reasoning models, mixture-of-experts architectures, and agentic AI increase the volume of data that must be transmitted and switched at low latency. Management also guided scale-out switch revenue to exceed $600m in FY27, double from FY26, and said the business is tracking to more than $1bn of annualized revenue in FY28. The call also noted that Marvell is seeing “strong engagement” for 51.2T and 100T switching and is already executing toward 200T Ethernet switching. Affected companies and impact: Arista Networks (ANET: US) positive, high magnitude; Broadcom (AVGO: US) mixed but net positive, medium magnitude; Cisco Systems (CSCO: US) mixed, low-to-medium magnitude; NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA: US) positive, medium magnitude. Transmission mechanism: The call confirms that AI networking is becoming a larger percentage of total AI cluster spend, driven by scale-out, scale-up, and scale-across network intensity. This is directly positive for Arista because higher AI Ethernet switching intensity expands the addressable market for cloud switching systems, especially where hyperscalers deploy large Ethernet fabrics. Broadcom benefits from the same market expansion through merchant switch silicon and networking ASIC exposure, although Marvell’s explicit scale-out switching momentum and stated line of sight to more than $1bn annualized revenue in FY28 represent incremental competitive pressure. Cisco benefits directionally from broader AI networking demand but with lower direct read-through given its lower hyperscale AI switching leverage versus Arista and merchant silicon suppliers. NVIDIA benefits because larger AI clusters require more scale-up and scale-out networking, reinforcing the strategic value of its networking stack, particularly when combined with NVLink and Ethernet fabrics. Near-term trading catalyst: Positive for AI networking equities because Marvell’s Q2 revenue guide and FY27/FY28 revenue reset imply that the networking cycle is already flowing through bookings, not merely pipeline discussions. Arista and Broadcom should be the most liquid public-market beneficiaries of the read-through, with Arista most levered to system-level Ethernet AI networking and Broadcom most levered to merchant silicon. Longer-duration fundamental shift: The more important shift is that AI infrastructure spending is moving from “more accelerators” to “more complete AI systems.” If agentic AI and reasoning models materially increase intra-cluster traffic, networking content per accelerator and per dollar of hyperscale capex should rise structurally. That favors companies with exposure to high-radix switches, low-latency fabrics, Ethernet scale-out architectures, and integrated optical-electrical connectivity. CUSTOM ASIC DEMAND IS BECOMING A MULTI-YEAR HYPERSCALE ARCHITECTURE SHIFT (READ-THROUGH 2) Supporting call evidence: Marvell said custom revenue remains on track to grow more than 20% year-over-year in FY27 and is now expected to more than double year-over-year in FY28. Management also reaffirmed confidence in delivering more than $10bn of custom revenue in FY29. In Q&A, management stated that the custom pipeline spans “all the US hyperscalers” and that the growth drivers include existing XPU programs, more than 10 XPU-attached programs, and a new tier-1 XPU program entering volume production. The key quote was: “Yes, so yeah, you heard it right… the implied, again, if we achieved our share targets in fiscal ’29 would indicate something over $10 billion… and yeah, we’re still tracking to it.” Affected companies and impact: Broadcom (AVGO: US) positive on TAM but negative on competitive share, net mixed-to-positive, high magnitude; Alchip Technologies (3661: Taiwan) positive, medium magnitude; Global Unichip (3443: Taiwan) positive, medium magnitude; Synopsys (SNPS: US) positive, medium magnitude; Cadence Design Systems (CDNS: US) positive, medium magnitude; Arm Holdings (ARM: US) positive, low-to-medium magnitude; Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: US) modest negative, low-to-medium magnitude; Intel Corporation (INTC: US) modest negative, low-to-medium magnitude. Transmission mechanism: Marvell’s commentary confirms that hyperscalers are expanding custom silicon programs beyond 1-off accelerator projects into a broad portfolio of XPUs, XPU-attached devices, NICs, CXL memory products, and adjacent infrastructure chips. This is a positive TAM validation for Broadcom, which is the most relevant public competitor in custom ASICs. However, Marvell’s claimed progress toward more than $10bn in FY29 custom revenue, broad hyperscaler engagement, and multiple new design wins indicate that share in custom ASICs is not fully locked by incumbents. The read-through is positive for ASIC design services companies such as Alchip and Global Unichip, and for EDA/IP vendors such as Synopsys and Cadence, because design activity at 2nm, advanced packaging, SerDes, die-to-die, and custom AI architectures requires higher design complexity and verification intensity. Arm benefits where custom CPUs and control-plane architectures proliferate. AMD and Intel face a longer-duration negative read-through because hyperscaler proprietary accelerators and XPU-attached architectures can reduce the addressable share available to merchant CPUs, GPUs, and accelerators in some workloads, even though both companies may still benefit from AI server growth. Near-term trading catalyst: The immediate catalyst is positive for Broadcom’s AI custom silicon narrative because Marvell’s comments validate the scale and durability of the hyperscaler ASIC market. The same evidence also limits any assumption that Broadcom will absorb the entire custom ASIC profit pool. For AMD and Intel, the read-through is not a near-term earnings catalyst but is strategically negative because hyperscaler custom silicon appears to be expanding rather than plateauing. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Custom ASICs are becoming a permanent AI architecture layer rather than a narrow cost-optimization tool. The strongest implication is that future AI capex will be divided among merchant GPUs, proprietary XPUs, custom AI accelerators, XPU-attached chips, memory-expansion devices, and high-speed networking silicon. That creates a broader semiconductor profit pool but increases competitive substitution risk for merchant compute vendors. NVIDIA’S ECOSYSTEM POSITION IS STRENGTHENED BY NVLINK FUSION AND MARVELL’S OPTICS PARTNERSHIP (READ-THROUGH 3) Supporting call evidence: Marvell described 3 pillars of the NVIDIA partnership: optics collaboration, NVLink Fusion integration, and AI-RAN. Management said NVLink Fusion “allows Marvell to build custom chips and networking semiconductors that can seamlessly interface with NVIDIA infrastructure” and gives hyperscalers “complete flexibility to mix and match custom and merchant capabilities across their platforms.” Marvell also stated that both teams are “off to the races.” Affected companies and impact: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA: US) positive, high magnitude; Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: US) negative, medium magnitude; Intel Corporation (INTC: US) negative, low-to-medium magnitude; Broadcom (AVGO: US) mixed, medium magnitude; Marvell Technology (MRVL: US) positive, high magnitude. Transmission mechanism: NVLink Fusion lowers the friction for hyperscalers to combine custom XPUs with NVIDIA infrastructure rather than building entirely independent AI fabrics. This reinforces NVIDIA’s ecosystem control even when customers pursue custom silicon. The positive read-through to NVIDIA is that custom ASIC adoption does not necessarily disintermediate NVIDIA; it may instead expand the set of chips that connect into the NVIDIA scale-up fabric. AMD and Intel face negative competitive implications because hyperscalers may increasingly view NVIDIA-compatible custom silicon as a way to diversify compute architecture while still remaining inside NVIDIA’s broader interconnect and software ecosystem. Broadcom receives mixed implications: the custom ASIC TAM is validated, but NVIDIA’s deeper ecosystem integration with Marvell could influence future hyperscaler interface and scale-up networking decisions. Near-term trading catalyst: Positive for NVIDIA because the partnership supports the market’s view that NVIDIA can monetize the AI infrastructure stack beyond GPUs. It also reduces the perceived risk that hyperscaler custom silicon automatically means NVIDIA displacement. Longer-duration fundamental shift: The more durable read-through is that NVIDIA is building an interconnect ecosystem into which custom silicon vendors must integrate. If NVLink Fusion becomes a preferred scale-up interface for heterogeneous AI infrastructure, NVIDIA’s strategic moat broadens from accelerator silicon into AI cluster architecture. OPTICAL INTERCONNECT DEMAND IS ACCELERATING ACROSS PAM, COHERENT LIGHT, DCI, NPO, AND CPO (READ-THROUGH 4) Supporting call evidence: Marvell raised FY27 interconnect growth expectations to more than 70%, versus a prior expectation of more than 50%. Management said demand continues to strengthen for 800G, 1.6T products are ramping quickly, and 1.6T revenue should take another substantial step up in FY28. Marvell also said quarterly revenue from TIAs and drivers should exceed a $1bn annualized run rate in the next few quarters. The most important structural quote was: “It’s increasingly clear that optics is the future of data center connectivity.” Affected companies and impact: Coherent Corp. (COHR: US) positive, high magnitude; Lumentum Holdings (LITE: US) positive, medium-to-high magnitude; Fabrinet (FN: US) positive, high magnitude; Zhongji Innolight (300308: China) positive, high magnitude; Eoptolink Technology (300502: China) positive, high magnitude; MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI: US) mixed, medium magnitude; Broadcom (AVGO: US) positive on optical DSP/TAM but competitive, medium magnitude. Transmission mechanism: Marvell’s commentary indicates that optical bandwidth intensity is rising across multiple network domains at once: scale-out, scale-up, scale-across, DCI, and XPU-attached applications. This is directly positive for optical module suppliers, optical component vendors, and outsourced optical manufacturing. Coherent and Lumentum benefit through lasers, photonics, coherent and high-speed optical components, and datacom optical exposure. Fabrinet benefits from optical manufacturing volumes as 800G/1.6T deployments scale. Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink benefit from hyperscale optical module demand, particularly where Chinese optical suppliers remain tied into global 800G/1.6T procurement. MACOM receives positive TAM validation for analog and optical components but faces competitive pressure because Marvell explicitly called out rapid scaling in TIAs and drivers. Near-term trading catalyst: Strongly positive for optical equities because Marvell’s guide-up was specifically driven by data center interconnect and not only by custom silicon. The statement that TIA/driver revenue should exceed a $1bn annualized run rate “in the next few quarters” is a direct signal that the optical component cycle is near-term, supply-chain visible, and already converting into revenue. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Optics are moving closer to the accelerator and switch, shifting from pluggable transceiver volume growth to integrated optical architectures such as NPO and CPO. This should expand the strategic value of companies with photonics, laser, advanced packaging, and high-volume optical manufacturing capabilities, while eroding the relative importance of lower-value commodity optical module assembly over time. PLUGGABLE DCI AND SCALE-ACROSS NETWORKING ARE BECOMING AN AI CLUSTER BOTTLENECK, CREATING BOTH UPSIDE AND DISINTERMEDIATION RISK (READ-THROUGH 5) Supporting call evidence: Marvell said it ships DCI solutions to all 5 major U.S. hyperscalers and that scale-across networks are emerging because AI clusters must increasingly span multiple data centers due to power and space constraints. Management stated that aggregate bandwidth requirements for scale-across networks are projected to be more than 10x higher than current front-end DCI networks. Marvell also said its DCI module business has line of sight to a $1bn annualized revenue run rate during FY28, approximately double FY26 revenue of roughly $500m. Affected companies and impact: Coherent Corp. (COHR: US) positive, medium-to-high magnitude; Lumentum Holdings (LITE: US) positive, medium magnitude; Fabrinet (FN: US) positive, medium-to-high magnitude; Ciena Corporation (CIEN: US) mixed, medium magnitude; Nokia (NOKIA: Finland) mixed-to-negative, low-to-medium magnitude. Transmission mechanism: Scale-across AI networking expands the need for coherent DCI pluggables and higher-speed optical transmission between adjacent or campus-linked data centers. This is positive for component and module vendors exposed to coherent optics and high-speed pluggables. However, it is mixed for traditional optical systems vendors such as Ciena and Nokia because hyperscalers may increasingly favor pluggable DCI modules and direct optical architectures rather than higher-value proprietary transport systems. Ciena and Nokia can still participate through coherent technology and optical platforms, but system-level value capture may face pressure if hyperscalers standardize around pluggable, switch-integrated, and module-centric architectures. Near-term trading catalyst: Positive for coherent optical and module suppliers because Marvell’s DCI run-rate target is explicit and time-bound for FY28. Mixed for optical systems vendors because the demand signal is strong, but the architecture signal favors pluggability and hyperscaler control. Longer-duration fundamental shift: AI data center geography is becoming part of semiconductor demand formation. Power and space constraints are forcing AI clusters to span buildings, campuses, and sites, turning DCI from a front-end connectivity market into a back-end AI workload fabric. That structurally increases bandwidth demand but may shift value away from traditional transport systems and toward coherent pluggables, DSPs, optical engines, and switch-integrated optics. MARVELL’S AEC, RETIMER, PCIe, AND CXL MOMENTUM VALIDATES THE TAM BUT RAISES COMPETITIVE RISK FOR PURE-PLAY CONNECTIVITY VENDORS (READ-THROUGH 6) Supporting call evidence: Marvell said its Golden Cable AEC program has already secured design wins with 3 tier-1 U.S. hyperscalers and several other customers. Management also said AECs and retimers are now ramping, with combined revenue expected to more than double year-over-year in FY27 and continue growing rapidly in FY28. The XConn acquisition added PCIe and CXL switch solutions, and Marvell cited strong interest in PCIe Gen 6 and CXL 3.1 products. Affected companies and impact: Credo Technology Group (CRDO: US) mixed but negative competitive skew, high magnitude; Astera Labs (ALAB: US) mixed but negative competitive skew, high magnitude; Amphenol Corporation (APH: US) positive, medium magnitude; TE Connectivity (TEL: US) positive, low-to-medium magnitude; Rambus (RMBS: US) positive, low-to-medium magnitude. Transmission mechanism: The positive TAM read-through is clear: AI clusters require more high-speed electrical connectivity, retiming, PCIe switching, CXL switching, and active cable solutions as bandwidth, reach, and power constraints intensify. That supports the market opportunity for Credo and Astera. However, Marvell’s explicit design wins with 3 tier-1 U.S. hyperscalers for Golden Cable, combined with its retimer, PCIe, and CXL portfolio expansion, raises competitive risk for both companies. Credo is most directly exposed because AECs are central to its growth narrative. Astera is most directly exposed through PCIe retimers, CXL connectivity, and AI platform attach. Amphenol and TE Connectivity receive a cleaner positive read-through because higher-speed cable and connector complexity should increase content per AI cluster, even if the silicon supplier mix shifts. Near-term trading catalyst: Mixed for Credo and Astera. The category validation is positive, but Marvell’s design-win language is competitively threatening and should pressure any market assumption that pure-play AEC/retimer suppliers have a protected hyperscaler runway. Positive for Amphenol given broader AI interconnect content. Longer-duration fundamental shift: The AI connectivity layer is consolidating into larger platform vendors that can offer end-to-end SerDes, retimers, PCIe switches, CXL switches, AECs, optics, and custom silicon. Pure-play connectivity vendors still have strong growth markets, but the competitive bar is rising as customers increasingly value integrated roadmaps, supply assurance, and multi-product reference designs.

@thevalueistMay 27, 2026 · 10:42 PM

$MRVL EXECUTIVE CALL SUMMARY: Marvell Technology Inc (05/27/26) Marvell’s Q1 FY27 earnings call was a material positive outlook-reset event. The quarter itself was clean but not the primary source of incremental investment information: revenue of $2.418bn exceeded the prior guidance midpoint by $18m, non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 exceeded the midpoint by $0.01, and data center revenue reached a record $1.833bn. The strategic significance was the magnitude and breadth of the forward revision. Management raised FY27 revenue expectations to nearly $11.5bn, implying approximately 40% growth, and raised FY28 revenue expectations to approximately $16.5bn, implying approximately 45% growth off the higher FY27 base. This represents an increase of more than $0.5bn for FY27 and approximately $1.5bn for FY28 versus the outlook provided 1 quarter earlier. The most important message from the call was that Marvell’s AI data center cycle is not merely extending; it is accelerating across multiple independent product vectors: interconnect, switching, custom XPUs, XPU-attached devices, DCI, CXL, retimers, AECs, NPO, CPO, and scale-up switching. The company’s official release confirms Q1 revenue of $2.418bn, GAAP gross margin of 52.1%, non-GAAP gross margin of 58.9%, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.04, non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.80, and Q2 FY27 guidance of $2.700bn revenue plus or minus 5% and non-GAAP EPS of $0.93 plus or minus $0.05. The call was especially impactful because the revenue guide moved ahead of the prior quarterly cadence. Management stated: “On our earnings call last quarter, we indicated that beginning in Q2, we expected quarterly revenue growth throughout fiscal 2027 to trend in the high single-digit range sequentially on a percentage basis, Q4 revenue exiting the fiscal year at approximately $3 billion. We are now guiding Q2 revenue to grow double-digit sequentially, and we expect Q3 and Q4 revenue to also grow by at least 10% sequentially. As a result, we now expect $3 billion in quarterly revenue in Q3, one full quarter ahead of our prior outlook.” This is the key call thesis in 1 quote: Marvell has moved from a strong AI ramp to a steeper, supply-backed, multi-quarter acceleration. The implied Q2 sequential revenue growth is approximately 12%, Q3 is expected to reach approximately $3bn, and Q4 appears implied in the low-to-mid $3bn range, consistent with management’s statement that year-over-year revenue growth should accelerate to approximately 50% by Q4. Q1 performance was strong relative to guidance, but the magnitude of the beat was moderate. Revenue was $18m above the prior $2.400bn midpoint, or less than 1% upside. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.01 above the midpoint. The quality of the quarter was better than the headline beat because the sequential growth was driven by data center products, operating cash flow was a record $639m, inventory stayed nearly flat at approximately $1.4bn, and the balance sheet supported both $200m of share repurchases and $54m of dividends. However, GAAP EPS of $0.04 was significantly below the prior $0.31 midpoint because of purchase accounting and the earnout obligation related to Celestial AI and XConn. Management framed this as a temporary accounting effect and guided Q2 GAAP EPS to $0.37 at the midpoint. The distinction matters: non-GAAP results showed continued operating leverage, while GAAP profitability was distorted by acquisition accounting in the quarter. Relative to prior guidance, the quarter was meaningfully better at the strategic level and only modestly better at the reported-result level. On 03/05/26, Marvell guided Q1 FY27 revenue to $2.400bn plus or minus 5%, non-GAAP gross margin to 58.25% to 59.25%, non-GAAP operating expenses to approximately $575m, GAAP diluted EPS to $0.31 plus or minus $0.05, and non-GAAP diluted EPS to $0.79 plus or minus $0.05. Actual Q1 revenue of $2.418bn, non-GAAP gross margin of 58.9%, non-GAAP operating expenses of $577m, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 were essentially in line to slightly above prior guidance; GAAP EPS was the only major negative variance, driven by acquisition-related accounting rather than operating weakness. The call’s investment significance was the forward guide. Management’s prior framework called for FY27 revenue “approaching $11bn,” FY27 data center growth of approximately 40%, FY27 interconnect growth of more than 50%, FY28 revenue of approximately $15bn, FY28 data center growth close to 50%, and approximately $250m of FY28 aggregate revenue contribution from Celestial AI and XConn. The new framework calls for nearly $11.5bn of FY27 revenue, approximately 50% FY27 data center growth, more than 70% FY27 interconnect growth, FY28 revenue of approximately $16.5bn, approximately 55% FY28 data center growth, custom revenue more than doubling in FY28, and scale-up optics revenue in FY28 more than doubling the prior approximately $150m outlook. This constitutes an unusually broad-based guide-up: it was not isolated to 1 customer program or 1 product cycle, but instead reflected higher demand across optical interconnect, DCI, switching, scale-up optics, custom silicon, XPU-attached programs, AECs, retimers, CXL, and PCIe switches. ACTUAL QUARTER PERFORMANCE AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT Q1 FY27 revenue of $2.418bn represented 28% year-over-year growth and 9% sequential growth. This compares with Q4 FY26 revenue of $2.219bn, Q3 FY26 revenue of $2.075bn, Q2 FY26 revenue of $2.006bn, and Q1 FY26 revenue of $1.895bn. The historical pattern is important: revenue growth in FY26 was already exceptional, with FY26 full-year revenue of $8.195bn up 42% from FY25, but quarterly year-over-year growth decelerated as comparisons became more difficult. Q1 FY27 reaccelerated sequentially and set up a stronger Q2 guide. Official Q4 FY26 results show revenue of $2.219bn, GAAP EPS of $0.46, non-GAAP EPS of $0.80, and FY26 revenue of $8.195bn. Data center revenue was the core of the quarter. Q1 FY27 data center revenue was $1.833bn, up 11% sequentially and 27% year-over-year, representing 76% of total company revenue. Communications and other revenue was $585m, up 3% sequentially and 29% year-over-year, representing 24% of total revenue. The official quarterly revenue schedule shows Q1 FY27 data center revenue of $1.833bn versus $1.651bn in Q4 FY26 and $1.441bn in Q1 FY26, while communications and other revenue was $585m versus $567m in Q4 FY26 and $455m in Q1 FY26. The comparison indicates that data center remains the dominant driver, but the non-data-center business has recovered sufficiently from prior inventory corrections to stop being a drag. Management explicitly stated that communications and other has “now largely recovered from inventory corrections,” and future performance should broadly track enterprise networking, carrier, and consumer fundamentals. The data center growth trajectory is structurally significant. In FY24, Marvell generated $2.217bn of data center revenue; in FY25, it generated $4.164bn; in FY26, it generated $6.100bn. The data center mix rose from 40% of FY24 revenue to 72% of FY25 revenue and 74% of FY26 revenue. The new FY27 guide implies data center revenue of roughly $9.1bn if the approximately 50% growth target is achieved, and the FY28 guide implies roughly $14.1bn-$14.2bn if the approximately 55% growth target is achieved. That would make data center approximately 80% of FY27 revenue and approximately 85% to 86% of FY28 revenue, depending on the growth rate in communications and other. The FY26 10-K confirms FY26 data center revenue of $6.100bn, communications and other revenue of $2.094bn, and the shift in data center mix from 40% in FY24 to 74% in FY26. Profitability was mixed at the GAAP level but constructive on a non-GAAP operating basis. GAAP gross margin was 52.1%, up 40bps sequentially from Q4 FY26 and up 180bps year-over-year from Q1 FY26. Non-GAAP gross margin was 58.9%, down 10bps sequentially and down 90bps year-over-year. The non-GAAP gross margin trend is important because the AI ramp is not yet producing gross margin expansion; product mix, optical module content, custom silicon mix, supply investments, and acquired businesses appear to be holding non-GAAP gross margin near the high-50% range. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $577m, up from $517m in Q4 FY26 and $486m in Q1 FY26, reflecting organic R&D investment and the Celestial AI and XConn acquisitions. Non-GAAP operating income was $847m, up 31% year-over-year, and non-GAAP operating margin was 35.0%, up from 34.2% in Q1 FY26 but down from 35.7% in Q4 FY26. The Q2 guide implies non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 36.5% at the midpoint, assuming $2.7bn revenue, 58.75% non-GAAP gross margin, and $600m non-GAAP operating expenses. Cash generation was a highlight. Operating cash flow of $639m was a record and nearly doubled from $333m in Q1 FY26. This was achieved despite the company being in the early phase of a capacity-locking cycle. Inventory of $1.4bn was nearly flat sequentially, a constructive signal given the demand acceleration and the company’s need to stage supply for future quarters. Cash and equivalents were $3.844bn at quarter-end, while long-term debt was $4.961bn. Net leverage was described as 0.32x EBITDA, leaving capacity for supply prepayments, R&D investment, M&A integration, and share repurchases. The official cash flow statement shows Q1 FY27 operating cash flow of $638.8m versus $332.9m in Q1 FY26, $200m of share repurchases, $53.8m of dividends, and quarter-end cash of $3.844bn. GUIDANCE, OUTLOOK REVISION, AND ESTIMATE IMPLICATIONS Q2 FY27 guidance was materially stronger than a normal beat-and-raise. Revenue guidance of $2.700bn plus or minus 5% implies a range of $2.565bn to $2.835bn, approximately 12% sequential growth at the midpoint and approximately 35% year-over-year growth versus Q2 FY26 revenue of $2.006bn. Non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.88 to $0.98 implies a $0.93 midpoint, up 16% sequentially from Q1 FY27 and up 39% year-over-year versus Q2 FY26 non-GAAP EPS of $0.67. The Q2 revenue guide exceeded external expectations in press reports, with Barron’s reporting that Q2 revenue guidance of $2.57bn to $2.84bn was above the $2.6bn forecast and that adjusted EPS guidance of $0.88 to $0.98 compared with a $0.90 consensus. The FY27 guide is now a materially higher trajectory. Management’s key quote was: “As a result, we now expect overall Marvell revenue in fiscal 2027 to grow approximately 40% year-over-year to nearly $11.5 billion. The increase in our revenue outlook continues to be driven by our data center business, which we now expect to grow approximately 50% this fiscal year. Notably, we expect our Inter Connect business to grow more than 70% year-over-year, well above our prior expectation of 50% growth.” This statement is central because it provides 3 distinct pieces of evidence: total company demand has strengthened, the strengthening is concentrated in data center, and the highest-upside product family is interconnect. Based on FY26 revenue of $8.195bn, the new FY27 guide implies approximately $3.3bn of incremental annual revenue. Based on FY26 data center revenue of $6.100bn, approximately 50% growth implies roughly $3.0bn of incremental data center revenue in FY27. The FY28 guide is even more important for valuation duration. Management stated: “In aggregate, we now expect overall company revenue to grow approximately 45% in fiscal 2028, off a higher fiscal 2027 base. As a result, we now expect Marvell’s fiscal 2028 revenue to reach approximately $16.5 billion, roughly $1.5 billion higher than the outlook we provided on our earnings call last quarter.” This implies approximately $5bn of incremental revenue from FY27 to FY28. The durability of the guide is supported by management’s assertion that the outlook is based on “demand trends we are seeing today” and “programs already in execution,” but the risk-adjusted value still depends on execution across a large number of hyperscaler ramps and supply commitments. The FY28 operating leverage framework was also upgraded. The CFO guided FY27 non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $2.45bn, including Celestial AI and XConn, and FY28 non-GAAP operating expense growth in the mid-to-high teens percentage range. Against revenue growth of approximately 45%, this implies very high incremental operating margin and supports management’s expectation of reaching the upper end of its 38% to 40% target operating margin model as FY28 progresses. The investment implication is that revenue revisions should flow through disproportionately to earnings estimates, unless gross margin compression or share count dilution offsets the operating expense leverage. The share count point is not trivial: Q2 diluted shares are expected to be 915m, reflecting Celestial AI shares and shares issued as part of the NVIDIA investment, which reduces the EPS translation of operating income growth. DATA CENTER: INTERCONNECT AS THE PRIMARY UPSIDE ENGINE Interconnect was the largest and most important business line discussed on the call. Management described it as the largest portion of data center revenue and raised FY27 growth expectations to more than 70% year-over-year. The upgrade reflects multiple sub-cycles occurring concurrently: 800G demand remains strong, 1.6T PAM products are ramping rapidly after production launch in H2 FY26, 1.6T coherent light is beginning to ship, DCI modules are moving toward 800G and 1.6T, TIAs and drivers are scaling, and scale-up optics are beginning to contribute. The key investment interpretation is that Marvell is increasingly a content-per-cluster story, not just a cloud CapEx story. If networking intensity rises as AI models move from training to reasoning, mixture-of-experts, and agentic inferencing, Marvell’s revenue can grow faster than aggregate hyperscaler CapEx. Management’s discussion of agentic AI was important because it linked AI workload evolution directly to Marvell content. The call stated that in agentic AI “a single user request may require agents to query AI models many times, rather than just once, as in traditional one-shot inferencing,” and that these queries may route to different parts of an AI cluster, increasing the amount of data traffic requiring low-latency switching and transmission. This is a persuasive strategic argument because it explains why interconnect demand can outpace GPU unit growth. The logic is that inference complexity increases traffic intensity, memory requirements, CPU attach, NIC attach, PCIe switching, retimer content, and front-end network bandwidth. The risk is that this is a directional architecture argument rather than a quantified workload elasticity model; it is not yet possible from the call alone to isolate how much of the guide is driven by booked demand versus extrapolated workload intensity. The DCI commentary materially expanded the opportunity set. Management said Marvell ships DCI solutions to all 5 major U.S. hyperscalers and now sees a new scale-across use case as AI clusters span multiple data centers because of power and space constraints. The call stated that aggregate bandwidth requirements for scale-across networks are projected to be more than 10x higher than current front-end DCI networks. Marvell now has line of sight to a $1bn annualized revenue run rate for DCI modules during FY28, approximately double the roughly $500m generated in FY26. This is highly significant because DCI historically was a narrower inter-site connectivity market, while scale-across AI networking potentially turns it into a core AI cluster fabric requirement. The key quote was: “What is now changing is the push to build significantly larger AI clusters, which increasingly must span multiple data centers due to power and space constraints. In these architectures, the back-end AI network must also extend between the data centers, creating the scale-across use case, where massive amounts of data move continuously between XPUs during AI workload processing.” Scale-up optics was framed as a new major TAM and a potentially under-modeled FY28 contributor. Management said Marvell is engaged with multiple tier-1 customers on 3rd-generation 6.4T light engines for NPO and CPO implementations. It also stated that Celestial AI’s photonic fabric solution has already been selected by a tier-1 hyperscaler for next-generation XPU scale-up networks. The call raised FY28 scale-up optics revenue to more than 2x the prior approximately $150m outlook, implying more than $300m. This is a meaningful change, but still likely small relative to the long-term TAM if NPO/CPO becomes a mainstream architecture for XPU-to-switch and switch-to-XPU scale-up domains. The strategic importance is amplified by the NVIDIA partnership, which connects Marvell custom silicon and optical networking to the NVLink Fusion ecosystem. The official NVIDIA/Marvell announcement states that NVIDIA invested $2bn in Marvell and that Marvell will provide custom XPUs and NVLink Fusion-compatible scale-up networking, while the companies will also collaborate on silicon photonics technology. The Polariton acquisition adds a longer-term optical technology vector. Management highlighted Polariton’s plasmonics-based silicon photonics devices and a demonstrated modulator bandwidth exceeding 1THz, up to 10x higher than current silicon photonics and thin-film lithium niobate-based solutions, according to the call. The external announcement described Polariton as adding high-speed, low-power plasmonics-based silicon photonics devices to Marvell’s optical roadmap, with relevance to 3.2T and beyond. This acquisition does not materially change near-term FY27 estimates, but it supports the view that Marvell is building a differentiated optical stack across DSPs, TIAs, drivers, silicon photonics, coherent, coherent light, DCI modules, and scale-up optical chiplets.

@thevalueistMay 27, 2026 · 9:00 PM

$MRVL (Bloomberg) -- (Updates with stock move.) Marvell Technology shares rise 4.5% in extended trading Wednesday after the semiconductor company forecast second quarter adjusted earnings per share of 88c to 98c; the midpoint of the guidance range came in above the average analyst estimate of 90c.  SECOND QUARTER FORECAST •Sees adjusted EPS 88c to 98c, estimate 90c (Bloomberg Consensus) •Sees net revenue $2.57 billion to $2.84 billion, estimate $2.61 billion •Sees adjusted gross margin 58.3% to 59.3%, estimate 58.6% •Sees EPS 32c to 42c •Sees adjusted operating expenses about $600 million, estimate $590.2 million FIRST QUARTER RESULTS •Adjusted EPS 80c vs. 62c y/y, estimate 80c •EPS 4.0c vs. 20c y/y •Net revenue $2.42 billion, +28% y/y, estimate $2.41 billion ◦Data center revenue $1.83 billion, +27% y/y, estimate $1.82 billion ◦Communications and other revenue $585.1 million, +29% y/y, estimate $581.4 million •Adjusted gross margin 58.9% vs. 59.8% y/y, estimate 58.8% •R&D expenses $652.3 million, +28% y/y, estimate $601.6 million COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT •“We expect revenue growth to continue accelerating each quarter throughout fiscal 2027, driven by continued strength in our data center business,” said Matt Murphy, Marvell’s Chairman and CEO. •“This improved outlook is being driven by strong demand across a broad set of Marvell solutions, including 800G and 1.6T scale-out optics, 51.2T Ethernet scale-out switches, scale-up optical solutions for NPO and CPO applications, scale-across datacenter interconnect modules, and custom XPU and XPU-attach solutions.” •“We are seeing exceptional AI-related bookings, and as a result, we are significantly raising Marvell’s revenue outlook for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 compared with the guidance we provided last quarter.”

@kaizen_investorMay 26, 2026 · 6:28 PM

Let me update you on my public calls in the last 2.5 months, if you followed with 1K each time: The calls 1. Sk Hynix (09/03): Buy at 487 - 2.05 shares 2. $OUST (10/03): Buy at 20 - 50 shares 3. $MRVL (11/03): Buy at 88.66 - 11.27 shares 4. $POET (11/03): Buy at 6.52 - 153.37 shares 5. $POET (31/03): Buy at 4.9 - 204 shares 6. $OUST (31/03): Buy at 16.7 - 59.88 shares 7. $HIMS (31/03): Buy at 18.7 - 53.47 shares 8. Filtronic (20/04) Buy at 230 - 4.34 shares 9. $POET (27/04) Sold at 8 - 357.37 shares 10. $WOLF (05/05) Buy at 36 - 27.78 shares 11. $FLNC (07/05) Buy at 16.67 - 59.99 shares The value up to now 1. Sk Hynix - Now at 1.256 -> 2.476 (+147%) 2. $OUST - Now at 43.04 -> 4.729 (+136%) 3. $MRVL - Now at 207.8 -> 2.341 (+134%) 4. $POET - Sold at 8 -> 2.858 (+43%) 5. $HIMS - Now at 23.75 -> 1.270 (+27%) 6. Filtronic - Now at 410 -> 1.780 (+78%) 7. $WOLF - Now at 73.1 -> 2.030 (+103%) 8. $FLNC - Now at 21.42 -> 1.285 (+28%) Total invested: 10K Total Return 18.77K Return: 87.70% You are welcome

@thevalueistMay 26, 2026 · 9:08 AM

$NVDA $MRVL Jensen and Murphy on the stage together is great news for MRVL.

@investmentguru_May 26, 2026 · 12:45 AM

Overnight market strength is flowing directly into the future-tech sectors. Storage & Semiconductor names are moving higher across the board: $MU +5% $SNDK +3% $MRVL +3% $AMD +2% $INTC +2% $QCOM +2% $TSM +2% The AI infrastructure trade is alive and well. At the same time, quantum momentum continues building: ⚛️ $INFQ +5% ⚛️ $RGTI +4% And space stocks are catching another strong bid: 🚀 $ASTS +6% 🚀 $RKLB +2% This is exactly what strong markets do: Multiple future-facing sectors start participating together. Semis. Quantum. Space. AI infrastructure. Watch where the money is rotating. Small caps and disruptive tech continue to lead

@jasonl_capitalMay 24, 2026 · 11:32 PM

Goldman Sachs just projected the AI optical networking market hitting $154B by 2028 - nearly 10x from today. As GPU clusters scale into multi-rack systems like NVIDIA's NVL576, the bottleneck shifts from compute to the fabric connecting it all. 10 companies across the photonics supply chain: 1. $MRVL - Marvell Technology Designs the optical DSPs and custom interconnect silicon that encode and decode data moving between GPUs at 800G and 1.6T speeds. Data center revenue hit $1.5B last quarter - 74% of total revenue - up 38% year over year. Record quarterly revenue of $2.075B.

@aleabitoredditMay 23, 2026 · 4:55 PM

I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.

@aleabitoredditMay 23, 2026 · 5:41 AM

For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.

@investmentguru_May 23, 2026 · 12:48 AM

My Top 5 AI Semiconductor Watchlist The AI infrastructure buildout is still in full swing — and these 5 names are on my radar right now. $MU → HBM demand from AI training/inference is driving explosive EPS & revenue growth → Consolidating near key levels — watching for breakout confirmation → Memory is the backbone of AI. Don’t sleep on $MU $TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor → The world’s dominant foundry. Every AI chip runs through TSMC → Recently in a buy zone — still the highest-conviction foundry play long-term $AMD → Earnings acceleration continuing in AI compute & data center chips → Post-breakout — watching for a healthy pullback before adding → Increasingly relevant in custom silicon as hyperscalers diversify away from NVIDIA dependency $MRVL → Custom ASICs, silicon photonics, Ethernet switching — the full AI connectivity stack → Strong relative strength. AMD just disclosed a new equity stake in Marvell  — symbolic validation of MRVL’s role in AI infrastructure → Q1 earnings just reported — multiple analysts raising price targets $ALAB → The emerging leader in AI connectivity — PCIe, CXL, and optical interconnect solutions → 100%+ revenue growth metrics. Pure-play on the AI scaling bottleneck → Technical momentum intact. Market cap now ~$49B with $1B TTM revenue  — premium valuation, but the growth justifies it The AI capex supercycle isn’t slowing. These names sit at the heart of it. Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_May 22, 2026 · 10:38 AM

Trump Just Put $2 Billion Into Quantum Computing The Full Quantum Ecosystem to Watch: Pure-Play Quantum: → $IONQ | $QBTS | $RGTI | $INFQ | $QUBT | $XNDU Quantum Security: → $ARQQ Arqit Quantum Foundries & Equipment: → $GFS GlobalFoundries | $COHR Coherent | $TSEM Tower Semi | $MRVL Tech Giants with Quantum Programs: → $IBM | $GOOGL | $MSFT | $NVDA | $HON | $RTX | $INTC The race to quantum supremacy just got a government balance sheet behind it. Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_May 22, 2026 · 12:05 AM

$MU $CRDO $AAOI $AXTI $MRVL all green today

@thevalueistMay 20, 2026 · 2:23 PM

Another all time high in $MRVL today. Up ~9%. I’m long 1/21/28 calls. Everyone but $NVDA bid on NVDA earnings day. https://t.co/AD8SEHOJtA

@aleabitoredditMay 20, 2026 · 1:00 PM

If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A. Sivers likely customers were: Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company. Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company. Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others. Celestial when they were tiny -> bought by $MRVL and became their growth vector. Probably would be valued $10B+ standalone. I’m extremely sure Sivers knows what to acquire for optical IP. They were just stuck in a catch-22 and lacked the funding to do so originally, despite owning one of the most valuable laser chokepoints. Future NASDAQ listing and recent growth unlocked downstream IP acquisition potential now.

@aleabitoredditMay 20, 2026 · 11:39 AM

@osilayer8 Nah, I'm cheering on $SIVE to become the next $LITE. I didn't acquire positions just for Sivers to be bought out by $MRVL or $JBL. I also really don't think fundraising is going to be a problem on NASDAQ listing given photonics demand. Just a waiting game.

@investmentguru_May 20, 2026 · 10:33 AM

10 AI Infrastructure Stocks I’m Watching for the Long Game 1. $MU — Memory Is Now a Strategic Asset Micron posted record Q2 FY2026 revenue of $23.86B — nearly 3x the same quarter last year — with record gross margins, EPS, and free cash flow.  HBM capacity is completely sold out through calendar 2026, with pricing locked in on the vast majority of that volume.  Memory is no longer cyclical commodity — it’s the bottleneck of the AI era. 2. $MRVL — The Custom Silicon Kingmaker Marvell delivered record FY2026 revenue of $8.195B, up 42% YoY, with custom AI chip wins at Amazon, Microsoft, and Google anchoring its growth.  Its 800G and 1.6T optical DSPs have become the essential “plumbing” for hyperscale AI clusters.  The most underrated AI infrastructure name hiding in plain sight. 3. $CRDO — The High-Speed Connectivity Pure Play Management is guiding over 50% YoY revenue growth for fiscal 2027 as AI infrastructure scales rapidly.  Rothschild & Co Redburn just launched coverage with a Buy and a $206 price target tied to surging generative AI infrastructure spending.  Ultra-low power, ultra-high speed — exactly what AI data centers need. 4. $AAOI — America’s 800G Transceiver Champion AOI completed its first volume shipment of 800G products to a large hyperscale customer in Q1 2026 and is guiding for sequential revenue growth throughout the year, with significantly larger growth expected in Q3 as additional capacity comes online.  They’re building a 210,000 sq ft manufacturing facility in Sugar Land, TX with up to $300M in planned investment to become one of the largest domestic suppliers of AI datacenter transceivers.  5. $AXTI — The Indium Phosphide Supercycle AXT hit Q1 2026 revenue of $26.9M, up 39% YoY, with InP backlog exceeding $100M, and is doubling indium phosphide capacity in both 2026 and 2027.  Order demand for scale-out optics could grow 2x in 2026 and another 2x in 2027  — and every optical transceiver in every AI data center needs InP. This is the upstream pick-and-shovel few are talking about. 6. $INTC — The Turnaround Nobody Wants to Believe In Intel is partnering with Nokia and Dell to advance next-gen 5G edge infrastructure, with its Xeon 6 Granite Rapids-D SoC delivering enhanced AI capabilities for far-edge deployments.  Foundry ambitions, US manufacturing tailwinds, and a deeply reset valuation. High risk — but if the turnaround lands, the upside is asymmetric. 7. $AMD — The Challenger That Keeps Gaining Ground The iShares Semiconductor ETF is up 77% this year, with AMD among the key beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investment.  MI300X traction in inference, custom silicon partnerships, and a data center GPU roadmap that has Nvidia watching closely. The market keeps underestimating this one. 8. $QCOM — Beyond Phones, Into Physical AI Qualcomm posted $10.6B in Q2 FY2026 revenue with record quarterly QCT automotive revenues, and combined automotive + IoT revenues up 20% YoY.  Momentum across personal, industrial and physical AI is growing  — this is no longer just a smartphone chipmaker. Edge AI, autonomous systems, and robotics are the next chapters. 9. $NOK — The AI-Native Network Play Nokia is delivering advanced optical and IP data center connectivity to power AI computing across continents, while partnering with NVIDIA to define the next generation of global connectivity in the AI-native wireless era.  Deeply undervalued relative to its AI infrastructure footprint. Patient capital play. 10. $ARM — The Architecture Running AI Everywhere In March 2026, Arm made history by launching its first-ever production silicon — the Arm AGI CPU — a data center processor for agentic AI workloads, developed with Meta, delivering more than 2x performance per rack vs. x86 platforms.  Arm’s compute platform now supports AI workloads ranging from milliwatts to gigawatts — from edge to cloud.  Every AI chip runs on Arm’s architecture. The royalty engine of the AI age.

@investmentguru_May 19, 2026 · 3:40 PM

$MU $MRVL $CRDO $AXTI

@investmentguru_May 19, 2026 · 10:47 AM

The AI Semiconductor Watchlist — “At Some Point, This Becomes a Buy” $MU — HBM memory sold out through 2026 and the AI memory supercycle is just getting started. The 52-week range tells the whole story — from $90 to $818.  Micron is the picks-and-shovels play for every AI training cluster being built right now. Pullbacks are gifts. $AAOI — Pure-play datacom optics in a world that can’t lay fiber fast enough. Stock has gone from $15 to $233 in 52 weeks  and is now digesting gains hard. The AI transceiver demand story hasn’t changed — the stock just got ahead of itself temporarily. $MRVL — Custom ASIC + optical DSP + PCIe interconnect. Up 110% YTD and RBC just raised their price target to $200 ahead of Q1 earnings on May 27.  This is the hyperscaler’s chipmaker of choice and the AI custom silicon wave is still in early innings. $CRDO — Credo is quietly becoming one of the most important companies in AI networking. Q3 earnings crushed estimates, Q4 guidance was strong, and the DustPhotonics acquisition accelerates the silicon photonics push with combined optical revenue projected above $500M in FY2027.  Strong Buy consensus across the Street. Any meaningful dip is a conversation. $AXTI — The InP substrate supplier nobody talks about until it moves 10x. 52-week low of $1.38 to an all-time high above $125  — this is what a supply-constrained critical materials story looks like when the market finally discovers it. Every photonics chip needs InP. $AXTI makes the wafers. $INTC — The most unlikely comeback story in semiconductors. Tesla foundry deal for 14A chips, Google ASIC partnership, $5B Nvidia investment, $5.7B CHIPS Act disbursement  — Lip-Bu Tan is executing and the foundry thesis is becoming real. Up 466% over the trailing 12 months  so valuation is stretched, but the long-term structural reset story is legitimate. The AI infrastructure supercycle doesn’t care about short-term volatility. Every name on this list sits at the foundation of it. Patience > FOMO. Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditMay 19, 2026 · 7:37 AM

Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.

@investmentguru_May 17, 2026 · 2:41 PM

$NVDA EARNINGS INCOMING Next week is not just a print — it’s a macro event for the entire AI trade. → Blackwell demand visibility is the #1 watch item → Data center revenue guide will set the tone for hyperscaler capex narratives → Any commentary on CoWoS/HBM supply constraints moves $MU, $SK Hynix proxies → Gross margin trajectory = the bull/bear fulcrum heading into H2 → China export exposure still an overhang — watch management tone carefully → Beat + raise keeps the AI supercycle thesis intact. Miss or soft guide = sector-wide reset Every name in AI infra — $AMD, $MRVL, $CRDO, $ALAB, $AVGO, $ARM — trades off this print. This isn’t just $NVDA earnings. It’s a referendum on the entire AI capital cycle. I am bullish for this. Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditMay 17, 2026 · 8:17 AM

Very nuanced. People buying $PENG for $MRVL "photonic memory" are likely to be disappointed. They're on the $SMCI integrator level with potential software add. The high margin, foundational IP belongs to companies like Celestial or others like Lightmatter. What they do is build a 2U box, inside the rack, around Celestial/Marvell's the photonic memory IP. It's also in the development collaboration stage. Retail just misunderstand the different layers and conflate them all as this company building core photonic memory IP. Not commenting on the potential price, but it's a legitimate idea for its base business. And upside would be material if they go past sampling. Just annoying when I get comments about "PHOTONIC MEMORY". Then they're building the chassis that the actual photonic memory IP sits inside and not even in qualification stage.

@aleabitoredditMay 17, 2026 · 1:28 AM

When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.

@investmentguru_May 16, 2026 · 1:39 AM

Weekend Dip Dive: The Dips Worth Watching Market closed red across the board today. Nasdaq -1.54%. S&P 500 -1.24%. Dow -1.07%.  Inflation fear, rising yields, oil above $104, no Iran resolution. The headline looks scary. The opportunity list doesn’t. Here’s what got hit and why it matters: $NVDA — down ~4.4% today Hit a 52-week high of $236.54 just yesterday  on reports the US greenlit H200 chip sales to 10 Chinese firms. Today was pure profit-taking and macro fear — not a fundamental breakdown. The real event is next week. Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 earnings after the close on May 20.  Street is expecting ~$78B revenue and $1.77 EPS — and Nvidia holds an estimated 75-85% market share in AI accelerators.  The dip into earnings is a gift if you believe in the print. TD Cowen has a $275 PT. Raymond James is bullish heading in. $AMD — down ~5.7% today Hit a daily high of $450.82 before closing near $420 — a -6.8% swing off the peak.  52-week range low was $107. It’s up nearly 4x from its lows. This is a sector-wide flush, not an AMD-specific story. Data center MI300X momentum is intact. $INTC — down ~6-7% today Traded from a session high of $116.22 down to $106.91 — an 8% intraday collapse.  The narrative is complex. Apple foundry partnership chatter is real, but analysts say it’s focused on legacy, lower-end chips. Still — Intel at $106 with a potential Apple relationship is a different story than Intel at $18 a year ago. $MRVL — down ~5% today Hit a 52-week high of $192.15 yesterday on the back of Cisco’s blowout earnings and AMD taking an equity stake in the company.  MRVL reports Q1 earnings on May 21 — same week as NVDA — with RBC at $200 PT and TD Cowen raising to $180 from $90.  Optical networking momentum is the thesis. This dip is pre-earnings noise. The print is the event. $MU — down ~6.6% today Pure macro flush. Retail sentiment stayed heavy on Stocktwits as traders discussed a looming Samsung Electronics labor strike that could divert memory demand directly toward Micron.  That’s a potential positive catalyst hiding inside a red day. $POET — down ~18% today A short-term correction after a meteoric 43% gain yesterday on the announcement of a $500 million+ contract with Lumilens for photonic integrated optical engines for AI hyperscaler data centers.  The contract is real. The deal is structural. The -18% is the market digesting a 43% single-day pop. The thesis is unchanged. $CBRS (Cerebras) — down ~10% today Surged 68% Thursday on its Nasdaq debut, approaching $100B valuation on just $500M in 2025 revenue.  Today’s -10% is the inevitable hangover from a 68% first-day pop. Still a volatile new listing — not a position for the faint of heart, but the AI chip competition narrative is very real. The macro backdrop for next week: The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.55% — the highest in a year — while rate hike odds climbed to 45% for sometime in 2026, up from just 1% a month ago. Kevin Warsh officially takes over the Fed from Powell today.  New Fed chair + high oil + hot inflation = the market will be on edge heading into Monday. The calendar that matters: → $NVDA earnings — May 20 after close. The most important print of the year. → $MRVL earnings — May 21. Optical + datacenter read-through. → Walmart, Home Depot, Target earnings next week — consumer health check. Dips happen. Conviction is built in dips. Do your homework over the weekend.

@aleabitoredditMay 15, 2026 · 9:34 PM

Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?

@aleabitoredditMay 14, 2026 · 12:29 PM

Fun read! Think you covered majority of the important points regarding the overall CPO growth curve and wrote a great bull case. Especially how $SIVE feeds into Ayar, $JBL, and $POET + scales using capex light fab-lite model with Win. There's actually a ton of supply chain mapping with $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, Lightmatter, and others of players like $AAPL for adjacent SiPH verticals. But makes sense not to include more not 100% confirmed players. O-Net/enablence ELS for Asian hyperscalers was confirmed though (didnt see that there) But just goes to show many players Sivers maps to.

@investmentguru_May 14, 2026 · 10:44 AM

$MRVL another strong looking stock in the market after making a new all-time high yesterday and still showing impressive momentum. https://t.co/tkdjnz6IHB

@kaizen_investorMay 13, 2026 · 2:09 PM

$MRVL is now one of my quickest doubles. It shows you don’t need high risk microcap companies to double your money. Marvell has a foot in almost every photonic tech, great strategic management and a healthy balance sheet to do some acquisitions. What else do you need? https://t.co/XWf3VbwlAw

@thevalueistMay 13, 2026 · 2:01 PM

People are loving on this $MRVL optical story. All-time high. +8% today. https://t.co/cB0WGvmeN4

@investmentguru_May 13, 2026 · 10:27 AM

15 of my favorite AI infrastructure plays in this market right now: $MU $AMD $INTC $SNDK $AAOI $MRAM $PENG $MXL $CRDO $MRVL $GLW $NOK $CEVA $GFS From memory, networking, photonics, optical connectivity, foundry, edge AI to telecom infrastructure — this sector is becoming the backbone of the next AI cycle. AI demand is no longer just about GPUs, it’s power, memory, data movement, fiber, cooling, networking and low latency infrastructure. That’s where I see some of the biggest long term opportunities developing. Every pullback in strong AI infrastructure names continues to get bought aggressively so far. Selective accumulation still looks like the best strategy in this market IMO.

@aleabitoredditMay 13, 2026 · 8:00 AM

What they do special is really advanced/architecturally unique CW lasers, so they fit Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and these types of specifications in hyperscaler supply chains. Companies like Furukawa, Sumitomo just mass produce generic/standardized CW lasers. That’s a reason why so many of these midstream optical companies ended up using such small laser company in $SIVE and as they all grow, Sivers scales with them.

@aleabitoredditMay 13, 2026 · 2:58 AM

So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long. They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules. And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028. Just for their CPO exposure: -> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25 -> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est. 18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900 CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080 (If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors). Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case. Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch. This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored. Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company? Yes, absolute massive. For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source. And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA. Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM). But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments: 2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%) ~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%) 2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage) 2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M) So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028. Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS. But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%. 2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early. Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC. Even if we drop: -> market share to just 15%. -> compress their net income margin down to 14%. -> connector ASP to $10. At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap. We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)

@investmentguru_May 12, 2026 · 10:31 AM

$POET what a comeback. From dropping to $6.43 after the $MRVL deal break news to now pushing near $15 premarket — this market keeps reminding everyone how unpredictable trading can be. That’s why no one should jump on each other during bad days or get carried away on good days. Sentiment changes fast, narratives change fast, and strong sectors can recover when least expected. Risk management, patience, and emotional control matter more than ego in this market.

@investmentguru_May 12, 2026 · 10:02 AM

The 2026 Memory Market May Extend the Supercycle AI training, inference, and data center buildout are keeping memory demand structurally elevated — and the full stack is worth watching. Here’s who plays where 👇 🟠 DRAM / HBM → SK Hynix — world’s largest DRAM & HBM supplier → Samsung Electronics — top 3 DRAM & HBM globally → $MU — top 3 DRAM & HBM + #4 in global NAND 🔵 NAND → $SNDK — #5 in the global NAND market 🩵 HDD → $STX — Seagate Technology → $WDC — Western Digital (Two of the last major global HDD manufacturers) 🟢 Data Storage Systems & Solutions → $NTAP — enterprise memory storage leader → $PSTG — global leader in flash storage 🔴 Equipment → $LRCX — memory packaging vendor → $AMAT — thin-film deposition for memory chip manufacturing 🔵 Controllers & Interconnect Silicon → $RMBS — U.S. memory IP vendor → $SIMO — global leader in memory controller solutions → $MRVL — leader in memory & storage technologies → $INTC — advanced packaging (Foveros) critical to next-gen HBM stacking The memory supercycle isn’t just $MU. It’s an entire ecosystem repricing for the AI era — from HBM to controllers to equipment. Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_May 12, 2026 · 9:43 AM

The “Inflation Era” of AI Compute is Breaking Out Across the Board Every layer of the AI infrastructure stack is seeing demand explosion — and the winners aren’t just $NVDA. Here’s the full supply chain map 👇 ⚙️ FOUNDATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE → PCB: $TTM, $JBL → CCL: $ROG → MLCC: $VSH → Liquid Cooling & Thermal: $VRT 🔴 CORE COMPUTE & MEMORY AI Silicon: → $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $INTC Memory / Storage: → $MU $SNDK $WDC $STX $INTC Power Management / Analog: → $TXN $ADI $NXPI $STM $MPWR $VICR Wafer Foundry: → $TSM $GFS $UMC Advanced Packaging / OSAT: → $TSM $ASX $AMKR 🔵 OPTICAL COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK Optical Components: → $LITE $COHR $AAOI Optical Fiber & Cable: → $GLW Silicon Photonics Foundry: → $TSEM $GFS INP: → $AXTI Optical DSP / Interconnect Silicon: → $MRVL $FN ☁️ CLOUD & AI PLATFORMS → $AMZN $GOOG $BABA $BIDU The AI compute supercycle isn’t one stock — it’s an entire ecosystem repricing in real time. Not financial advice. DYOR.

@investmentguru_May 12, 2026 · 2:04 AM

ANTHROPIC REVENUE TRAJECTORY IS BREAKING MATH → Jan 2025: $1B ARR → Dec 2025: $9B ARR → Apr 2026: $30B ARR That’s a 30x in 15 months. One analyst is now projecting $100B by end of 2026, $340B in 2027, and $2T+ by 2030. Compare that to Google’s current revenue run-rate. The forecast says Anthropic could surpass it by mid-2028. Is it too aggressive? Probably. But the direction of travel is real. The bigger signal here isn’t Anthropic specifically — it’s what this means for the compute stack. If AI model companies are monetizing this fast, demand for chips, memory, networking, power, and cooling is going to be far larger than the market priced in. The infrastructure thesis just got stronger. Before a potential Anthropic IPO, here’s where you can get exposure today: → $AMZN — lead cloud partner + investor → $GOOG — major backer + TPU development partner → $NVDA / $AMD / $AVGO — AI chip layer → $TSM — foundry capacity → $MU — HBM + DRAM demand surge → $MRVL / $FN / $LITE / $COHR — optical networking → $VRT / $MPWR — power & cooling Pre-IPO fund exposure: → $VCX — Anthropic ~20.7% of portfolio → $DXYZ — meaningful Anthropic position → $AGIX — one of the few ETFs with direct private AI exposure → $BSTZ — private market tech exposure including Anthropic The AI model race winner is still unknown. The infrastructure winners are less uncertain. Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditMay 11, 2026 · 12:15 PM

I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now

@investmentguru_May 10, 2026 · 3:05 PM

SECOND WIND ALERT: $EOSE & $POET Two names that went on wild rides are back on the radar — and the setups are worth watching. $EOSE (Zinc Battery Storage) → Ran 362% in 2024, another 107% in 2025 → Got crushed ~39% in Feb/Mar 2026 on manufacturing concerns & securities fraud investigations → Now bouncing hard — up 13–25% in recent sessions → Catalyst: JDA with Turbine-X Energy for zinc BESS + gas-fired power targeting up to 2 GWh for AI data centers → Q1 2026 revenue guided at $56–57M, driven by record shipments & automation gains → New CFO hired, $568M cash on balance sheet, current ratio ~4.9 → 12 analysts, median PT ~$15 vs current ~$7 — significant implied upside if execution delivers → AI data center power demand narrative is the tailwind. Watch for order flow $POET (Photonics / Optical Engines) → Ran from ~$3.50 to $15.50 in under a year — a pure momentum machine → Marvell ($MRVL) canceled their contract → stock crashed hard → Now recovering: up 19.9% in April, surging again in May → Real catalysts building: >$5M production order, 30,000+ optical engines planned for 2026, Malaysia fab targeting 400–800G+ connectivity → Redomiciling from Canada to U.S. → removes PFIC tax friction for U.S. holders → $430M cash, high gross margins, tiny revenue ($1.1M) — still very early stage → Photonics demand for AI infrastructure is secular. $POET is betting it can fill the gap $MRVL left behind Both names had explosive runs → sharp sentiment washouts → and are now rebuilding momentum as the AI infrastructure buildout continues to demand new solutions in energy storage and optical interconnects Both are high-beta, high-risk names. $EOSE has the securities fraud overhang. $POET is pre-revenue scale. Position size accordingly. Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_May 10, 2026 · 1:00 PM

The market is up. Oil is at $100+. Inflation is sticky. And bonds are whispering something equities are ignoring. Here’s what’s actually going on- OIL SHOCK REALITY ➜ Geopolitical tension pushed oil sharply higher earlier this cycle ➜ Supply risk around key shipping routes tightened sentiment ➜ Energy inflation became a second-wave macro driver This is not a clean disinflation environment anymore. WHY EQUITIES ARE STILL RISING ➜ Index strength is narrow, not broad ➜ AI capital expenditure is doing the heavy lifting ➜ Hyperscalers are still committing massive spend into 2026 ➜ Earnings growth is increasingly concentrated in AI-linked infrastructure In simple terms: It’s not “the market.” It’s a handful of mega themes. INFLATION IS NOT FULLY DEAD ➜ CPI has re-accelerated from early-year lows ➜ Producer pricing pressure remains elevated ➜ Services inflation is sticky ➜ Energy volatility keeps headline risk alive The “easy disinflation” phase is likely behind us. WHAT BONDS ARE REALLY SAYING ➜ 10Y yield ~4.4% | 2Y ~3.9% | 30Y ~5% ➜ Yield curve is positively sloped again But here’s the nuance: ➜ The curve was inverted for an extended period (2022–2024) ➜ Historically, recessions often follow 1–6 months after un-inversion ➜ We are now inside that window ➜ Credit spreads remain tight → complacency in risk pricing Translation: Bonds are not confirming the equity narrative. THE MESSAGE FROM CREDIT MARKETS ➜ Growth expectations exist ➜ But compensation for risk is historically low ➜ The system is not pricing stress properly That gap is where volatility usually forms. BASE CASE OUTLOOK ➜ Inflation remains sticky in H1, moderates in H2 if energy stabilizes ➜ Rates stay “higher for longer” ➜ Volatility increases around macro data shocks ➜ Returns become more sector-specific, less index-driven WHERE PERFORMANCE IS STILL WORKING The names that work in this environment: ➜ AI infrastructure ($PLTR, $NVDA, $CRDO, $MRVL) ➜ Data center power ($GEV, $ETN, $VST, $CEG) ➜ Photonics & optical networking ($COHR, $FN, $AAOI) ➜ Energy itself ($CCJ, $OKLO, $SMR) This isn’t a “buy everything” rally. It’s a precision rally in a minefield. Know what you own and why. FINAL THOUGHT Equities are pricing stability. Bonds are pricing uncertainty. When those diverge this far — one side eventually adjusts. Not financial advice. DYOR.

@investmentguru_May 10, 2026 · 11:26 AM

The Complete Data Center Stack: Where the AI Infrastructure Money Flows Most investors still think AI is just about GPUs. That’s incomplete. AI is an infrastructure buildout, and the real opportunity spans the entire data center stack. Every inference, every training run, and every deployed model depends on multiple layers working together. Here’s the breakdown: 1. Compute Silicon (The Brain) Tickers: $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, $INTC This is the foundation. GPUs, CPUs, accelerators, and custom silicon power training and inference. Why it matters: - Compute demand keeps rising with larger models - AI workloads are forcing faster chip innovation - Custom ASICs are becoming a major trend 2. Server OEMs & Solutions (The Hardware Layer) Tickers: $SMCI, $DELL, $HPE, $VRT, $ETN, $MOD Chips need systems. These companies assemble and deliver the physical AI servers and power systems. Why it matters: - AI racks are denser and hotter - Power distribution is now critical - Cooling is becoming a competitive advantage 3. Memory & Storage (The Hidden Bottleneck) Tickers: $SNDK, SK Hynix, $MU, $WDC, $P, Samsung, $NTAP AI models consume massive amounts of memory bandwidth and storage. Why it matters: - High-bandwidth memory is becoming strategic infrastructure - Data storage demand rises with AI deployment - Faster access = better model performance 4. Networking & Connectivity (The Nervous System) Tickers: $ANET, $CSCO, $MRVL, $CRDO, $CIEN, $NOK AI clusters must communicate at ultra-high speed. Why it matters: - Faster networking reduces latency - Data movement is becoming expensive - Scale depends on interconnect efficiency Key idea: AI cannot scale without bandwidth. 5. Neoclouds & Physical Infrastructure (The New Builders) Tickers: $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, $APLD $CIFR $DGXX These companies provide specialized AI infrastructure and hosting. Why it matters: - Cloud alternatives are growing - AI-native infrastructure is becoming valuable - Capacity shortages create pricing power 6. Energy (The Ultimate Constraint) Tickers: $CEG, $NEE, $EOSE, $GEV, $EQT, $VST $OKLO $BE $FLNC AI consumes enormous electricity. Power availability is becoming a limiting factor. Why it matters: - Grid demand is surging - Battery storage is essential - Reliable baseload power matters Final Thought The market often focuses on one winner. But AI infrastructure is an ecosystem. If you want to understand where capital flows next, follow the stack: Compute → Servers → Memory → Networking → Infrastructure → Energy The biggest winners in the AI cycle may not always be the obvious names. Sometimes the best opportunities are in the supporting layers that make the whole system possible.

@investmentguru_May 9, 2026 · 3:53 PM

The Complete Semiconductor Playbook — AI Supercycle 2026 🤖 EDGE AI $QUIK · $CEVA · $SYNA · $QCOM · $INDI · $VLN · $SMTC → AI leaves the data center. Devices. Cars. Factories. Multi-year secular trend just getting started. 🏗️ AI INFRA $SGH · $SKYT · $AVGO · $NVDA · $ARM · $CRDO · $MRVL → The “Nvidia-only” era is over. The full stack is getting priced in. ⚡ POWER $POWI · $TXN · $MPWR · $VICR · $GANX · $AEHR → AI data centers are power monsters. Unsexy. Essential. Increasingly scarce. 🔬 FUTURE-TECH $LWLG · $AXTI · $POET · $TSEM · $GFS · $IPGP → Silicon photonics foundry capacity = national strategic asset. 🛠️ EQUIPMENT $AMAT · $LRCX · $KLAC · $ASML · $ONTO · $ACMR → Without these, nothing above gets built. Map the full stack. That’s where the alpha is. Not financial advice. DYOR

@investmentguru_May 9, 2026 · 3:53 PM

The Complete Semiconductor Playbook — AI Supercycle 2026 The AI trade is no longer one ticker. It’s a full stack. Here’s every layer: 💾 MEMORY $MU · $WDC · $STX · $SNDK · $AMAT · $LRCX → HBM4 = the new oil. Not a commodity anymore. Strategic infrastructure. 🔌 CONTROLLERS $RMBS · $SIMO · $ATOM · $MCHP · $ADI · $TXN → The traffic cops of every AI system. Overlooked. Undervalued. Critical. 📦 PACKAGING / TESTING $AMKR · $FORM · $CAMT · $ONTO · $COHU · $ACMR → CoWoS. HBM stacking. Chiplets. This is where chips become systems. 🧠 NEXT-GEN MEMORY $MRAM · $GSIT · $NVEC · $NLST · $CEVA → Beyond DRAM. Early-stage. Asymmetric upside when the cycle arrives. 🌐 OPTICAL / INTERCONNECT $LITE · $AAOI · $COHR · $CIEN · $MRVL · $GLW · $MTSI · $TSEM · $POET · $LWLG · $FN → The hottest sub-sector in semis right now. 800G → 1.6T. CPO is the next arms race.

@investmentguru_May 9, 2026 · 3:08 PM

10 long term bets $CRDO — Credo Technology | High-speed AEC interconnects powering AI data centers. Sticky design wins with hyperscalers. Underowned, undervalued. $MRVL — Marvell Technology | Custom AI silicon + data center networking. ASIC tailwinds from Amazon, Google, Microsoft. Long runway ahead. $MXL — MaxLinear | High-speed optical & broadband chips. optical networking demand is accelerating fast. $AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics | 400G/800G transceivers for hyperscalers. Pure-play on the AI optical boom. Small cap, big leverage. $AXTI — AXT Inc. | Makes the InP & GaAs substrates photonics runs on. The picks-and-shovels play nobody’s talking about. $INOD — Innodata | AI data services powering enterprise AI pipelines. Profitable, growing, and still flying under the radar. $RKLB — Rocket Lab | Full space stack — launch + spacecraft. The most execution-focused name in the entire space sector. $IREN — IREN Ltd. | Pivoting hard into AI cloud compute. Low-cost power + GPU infrastructure = serious optionality. $IONQ — IonQ | Trapped-ion quantum computing. Early innings, but government contracts + commercial deals are stacking up. $OKLO — Oklo | Micro-fission nuclear reactors purpose-built for the AI power crisis. Long-duration, asymmetric upside. Not financial advice.

@mrmikeinvestingMay 9, 2026 · 2:29 PM

The AI super cycle is currently in year 4 out of 15, meaning we are still very early on! Many who know & capture the next phase cycles will become millionaires. Phase 1 is officially done, & we are now onto Phase 2: PHASE 1 — FOUNDATION LAYER (2023–2026) $NVDA - AI GPU king powering training, inference, & hyperscale demand. $AMD - AI accelerator competitor rapidly scaling enterprise and cloud adoption. $MU - High bandwidth memory essential for AI servers & large scale compute. $LITE - Fiber optic connectivity and photonics infrastructure supporting AI bandwidth. $INTC - Domestic semiconductor and AI infrastructure turnaround play. PHASE 2 — INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION (2026–2027) $IREN - AI focused data center expansion securing scalable power for next-gen compute. $CRWV - Cloud and AI infrastructure platform positioned to benefit from hyperscale. $NBIS - AI infrastructure and compute exposure tied to next wave enterprise deployment growth. $OKLO - Advanced nuclear technology positioned to support long-duration AI energy demand. $MRVL - AI networking silicon connecting compute, memory, storage, and hyperscale infrastructure. PHASE 3 — THE PHYSICAL AI ECONOMY (2027–2029) $USAR - Strategic U.S. rare earth exposure tied to AI hardware and military supply chains. $MP - Domestic rare earth production critical for magnets, EVs, robotics, and defense systems. $RKLB - Launch infrastructure and satellite systems supporting AI driven space expansion. $ASTS - Space based connectivity enabling future autonomous and AI communication systems. $ONDS - Wireless defense and drone networking infrastructure supporting autonomous operation. PHASE 4 — AGI & SOFTWARE DOMINANCE (2030+) $IONQ - Quantum computing exposure potentially accelerating next-gen AI capabilities. $ORCL - Enterprise AI databases and cloud infrastructure deeply integrated into corporate systems. $AMZN - Cloud and AI infrastructure dominance through AWS and enterprise compute. $GOOGL - AI search, inference, cloud, and AGI infrastructure powerhouse. $MSFT - Enterprise AI ecosystem leader integrating AI across productivity, cloud, and software. The AI super cycle is not a 1 year trade. It’s a decade long infrastructure buildout. Save this to look back on later…

@kaizen_investorMay 8, 2026 · 2:03 PM

I calculated the value if you followed all my decisons with 1K in the last 2 months: The decisions 1. Sk Hynix (09/03): Buy at 487 - 2.05 shares 2. $OUST (10/03): Buy at 20 - 50 shares 3. $MRVL (11/03): Buy at 88.66 - 11.27 shares 4. $POET (11/03): Buy at 6.52 - 153.37 shares 5. $POET (31/03): Buy at 4.9 - 204 shares 6. $OUST (31/03): Buy at 16.7 - 59.88 shares 7. $HIMS (31/03): Buy at 18.7 - 53.47 shares 8. Filtronic (20/04) Buy at 230 - 4.34 shares 9. $POET (27/04) Sold at 8 - 357.37 shares 10. $WOLF (05/05) Buy at 36 - 27.78 shares 11. $FLNC (07/05) Buy at 16.67 - 59.99 shares The value up to now 1. Sk Hynix - Now at 996 -> 2.041 (+104.1%) 2. $OUST - Now at 24.38 -> 2.678 (+33.94%) 3. $MRVL - Now at 165.86 -> 1.896 (+86.92%) 4. $POET - Sold at 8 -> 2.858 (+42.95%) 5. $HIMS - Now at 25.61 -> 1.369 (+36.93%) 6. Filtronic - Now at 388 -> 1.683 (+68.39%) 7. $WOLF - Now at 49.49 -> 1.374 (+37.48%) 8. $FLNC - Now at 24.78 -> 1.486 (+48.65%) Total invested: 10K Total Return 15.38K Return: 53.85% I'm happy with the value I provide on here. All for free, just a nerd sharing his research.

@aleabitoredditMay 8, 2026 · 7:42 AM

$SIVE supplies lasers to likely $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, $AMD, O-Net/Enablence, and others. Not including silicon photonics programs with $AAPL or $AEVA or their other CHIPS act related work. The amount of hyperscaler they feed into is pretty crazy at that valuation.

@investmentguru_May 7, 2026 · 10:06 AM

Black swan innovations that could destroy today’s AI bottleneck trade (HBM, GPUs, power infrastructure): Everyone is crowded into the same AI scarcity trade: GPU scarcity → $NVDA HBM scarcity → $MU, $SKHynix Power scarcity → utilities, nuclear, grid names Optical networking scarcity → $COHR, $LITE, $GLW But black swans change the game. Three innovations that could flip scarcity into abundance overnight: 1. Photonic / optical compute If light replaces electrons for data movement and matrix compute, memory bottlenecks and power consumption collapse. Public/public-adjacent plays: $POET — optical interposer platform $COHR — lasers / optical connectivity $LITE — photonics & optical networking $GLW — fiber infrastructure $STM — silicon photonics manufacturing exposure Private leaders: Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Scintil Photonics are attracting major capital as optical interconnect demand accelerates. 2. Neuromorphic / memory-centric compute If compute moves closer to memory, HBM dependency weakens. Watch: $IBM — neuromorphic leadership $INTC — edge AI + advanced packaging $AMD — architecture diversification $MRVL — custom silicon + memory optimization 3. Energy abundance breakthrough Fusion, superconductors, breakthrough cooling. Watch: $SMR — modular nuclear $OKLO — microreactors $CEG — baseload nuclear $VRT — data center cooling/power $ETN — electrical infrastructure The biggest risk in crowded trades isn’t competition. It’s technological discontinuity. Most people model demand curves. Few model paradigm shifts. Black swans don’t arrive gradually. They arrive and reprice entire sectors.

@mrmikeinvestingMay 7, 2026 · 2:23 AM

We are currently in a “once in a lifetime” AI super cycle… Phase 1 was: (already gone) Semiconductors ~ $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $ARM Phase 2 is: (passing by now) Memory ~ $MU, $SNDK, $WDC Photonics ~ $AAOI, $AEHR, $LITE, $MRVL The current phase is Neo Cloud/AI infrastructure: $IREN, $NBIS, $CRWV, $CIFR, $APLD Next wave (many will miss) Rare Earths ~ $USAR, $MP, $UUUU, $FCX Power & Cooling~ $VRT, $CEG, $OKLO, $OSS Finally it all concludes with these 3 sectors: Robotics ~ $TSLA, $PATH, $SERV Space ~ $RKLB, $ASTS, $PL, $LUNR Drones ~ $ONDS, $AVAV, $LMT Many will make generational wealth from this AI super cycle over the next 7 months. Save this to look back on later…

@investmentguru_May 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM

Capital rotation is getting louder in semis and AI infrastructure. Money is flowing into names like $MU, $SNDK, $AMD, $ARM, $CRDO, $MRVL, $INTC, $AAOI, $ALAB, and $TSEM. The market is rewarding memory, networking, packaging, and AI compute plays right now

@aleabitoredditMay 5, 2026 · 7:36 AM

Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.

@aleabitoredditMay 3, 2026 · 8:07 PM

@MeltemDemirkus $SIVE is in the laser chokepoint that Goldman says has significant EPS upside. But they're undiscovered to institutions still, despite their likely mapping to $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, $POET, and others. Ayar got mentioned though, but strange they didn't find their upstream laser supplier.

@investmentguru_May 2, 2026 · 11:15 PM

5 stocks that are buying opportunities on pullback: $CRDO $MRVL $GFS $ANET $BE $CRDO — Credo Technology The AEC king just hit 201% YoY revenue growth in Q3, and the stock has pulled back ~15% on concerns about decelerating growth guidance (~50% YoY in FY27). The pullback looks like a gift — CRDO boasts nearly 70% gross margins, a debt-free balance sheet, and new products targeting a $10B+ TAM.  Three new growth pillars — Zero-Flap optics, active LED cables, and OmniConnect gearboxes — extend the story well beyond AECs. Analysts carry a Strong Buy consensus.  Any reset toward key support is a tier-in zone. $MRVL — Marvell Technology MRVL raised its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast to $11B, with the data center business expected to grow 40% YoY and interconnect revenues projected to grow more than 50% — up from 30% projected earlier.  The Google custom AI chip partnership is a massive catalyst that validates MRVL’s custom silicon roadmap. MRVL has risen over 70% in the past month , so it’s extended near-term, but any pullback is buying opportunity. 32 analysts carry a Strong Buy consensus.  This is not a trade — it’s a multi-year AI infrastructure compounder. $ANET — Arista Networks The backbone of AI networking. 2025 revenue was $9.01B, up 28.6% YoY, with earnings up 23.1%.  Analysts have revised the 2026 revenue outlook to approximately $10.5B, representing ~20% growth, with guidance for sustained mid-teens long-term sales growth.  Morgan Stanley just raised their price target to $180, and JPMorgan raised theirs to $200.  Q1 2026 earnings drop May 5 — any pre-earnings dip or post-earnings overreaction is your entry. ANET has $4.7B in deferred revenue (+87% YoY) — visibility is exceptional. The essential plumbing of every AI data center. $GFS — GlobalFoundries The domestic semiconductor foundry play nobody’s talking about. GFS ripped ~34% from late March to late April on Apple chip production wins at its Malta, New York fab and its growing role in edge AI and chiplets.  Trades at a P/E of 26x vs. the semiconductor industry average of ~42x , making it one of the cheapest names in the sector. The CHIPS Act tailwind, Apple customer validation, and a patent war against Tower Semiconductor that could protect its IP moat make this a compelling pullback buy. Any flush back toward $50–$52 is a loading zone for the next leg. $BE — Bloom Energy The AI power crisis trade is real, and $BE is monetizing it directly. Q1 2026 revenue hit $751M, up 130% YoY, with product revenue up 208% and gross margin expanding to 30%.  Oracle committed to up to 2.8 gigawatts of Bloom fuel cell systems for U.S. AI data center growth, with 1.2 gigawatts already contracted and deployment underway through 2027.  Full year 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to ~80% YoY, up from a prior ~60% guide.  On-site power generation solves the grid delay problem that’s becoming the #1 bottleneck for AI data center buildout. Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_May 2, 2026 · 6:29 PM

The Full Optical AI Industry Chain: 1. IC Design & Manufacturing (Where the brains are built) ASIC / xPU / Photonic ICs → $NVDA $MRVL $AVGO $LITE $COHR $INTC $AMD $CSCO Wafer Foundries → $TSM $TSEM $GFS $UMC 2. Materials (The Overlooked Layer) (The foundation of photonics) Indium Phosphide → $AXTI $IQE Gallium Arsenide → $AXTI $MTSI This layer is underfollowed and could see strong upside as optical demand expands. 3. Optical Components (The data highways) VCSEL / EML Lasers → $LITE $COHR $AVGO $AAOI Optical Module Assembly → $FN $COHR $LITE $MRVL $CSCO Fiber / WDM / Optical Connectivity → $CIEN $GLW $LITE MPO Connectors → $GLW $APH Optical Fiber → $GLW 4. Packaging & Testing (The hidden backbone) Packaging → $ASX $AMKR $FN $JBL Packaging Equipment → $KLIC Testing → $TER $KEYS $FORM $AEHR

@investmentguru_May 2, 2026 · 6:27 PM

Optical Communications: The Next Breakout in AI Infrastructure Everyone is focused on GPUs, but the real bottleneck in AI is no longer compute — it’s data movement. As AI clusters scale into hundreds of thousands of GPUs, the challenge becomes moving data faster, farther, and with less power. Copper is hitting its limits. Optical is the next layer of scale. Why optical matters: • Higher bandwidth • Lower latency • Lower power consumption • Less heat • Better long-distance transmission That’s why hyperscalers are aggressively investing in optical-heavy infrastructure. Core optical AI plays on my radar: $COHR — broad optical exposure $LITE — datacenter optical leader $AAOI — optical modules growth $FN — manufacturing backbone $MRVL — AI networking silicon $CIEN — optical transport infrastructure AI compute gets the attention. Optical networking moves the data. Without optical interconnects, AI doesn’t scale. Follow the data pipes, not just the chips. Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_May 2, 2026 · 1:46 PM

$LWLG has been one of the most explosive photonics plays of 2026 — the stock went from ~$6.59 in late March to hitting a 52-week high of $17.28 intraday, a move of over 1,300% in the past year alone — and the catalysts keep stacking. The foundation was a development agreement with $TSEM to integrate its electro-optic polymer modulators into $TSEM ’s silicon photonics platform, followed by integration into $GFS GDSFactory process design kit, meaning chip designers building 200G/400G per lane AI data center infrastructure can now drop $LWLG’s polymer modulators directly into standard manufacturable design flows — that’s the bridge from “cool lab tech” to real commercial pipeline. Then came the $MRVL angle: $MRVL acquired Polariton Technologies, a firm that publicly uses $LWLG’s Perkinamine polymers, directly linking $LWLG to $MRVL’s 3.2T optical roadmap. On April 30, another 16.7% session triggered by the $GFS GDSFactory partnership going deeper. The bull thesis is simple — electrical interconnects are hitting speed and power ceilings inside AI data centers, and $LWLG’s high-speed, low-power electro-optic polymer technology is one of the few solutions that can push past that bottleneck. Balance sheet is clean with ~$69M cash and virtually no debt, giving the company runway to execute. Yes, revenue is still tiny and this is a pre-commercial story — but with $TSEM , $GFS, and an indirect $MRVL connection all in the mix, $LWLG is starting to look less like speculation and more like infrastructure. Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditMay 2, 2026 · 6:29 AM

I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?

@kaizen_investorMay 1, 2026 · 3:10 PM

The rating of my current holdings according to this framework. $GOOGL: 97/100 Alphabet’s management operates with relentless execution and immense capital discipline. While the sheer, absolute dollar magnitude of their stock-based compensation remains staggering, their aggressive share repurchases, strict strategic focus on monetizing AI infrastructure, and transparent, data-backed communications make them elite operators who are successfully defending one of the largest economic moats in existence. $FTC: 96/100 Filtronic’s management team under CEO Nat Edington demonstrates an exceptional, almost robotic level of operational execution and capital discipline. By leveraging their core RF and mmWave competencies to secure and execute massive, binding contracts in the LEO space and defence sectors, management has consistently over-delivered on guidance without diluting shareholders, reflecting the highest tier of corporate integrity and competence. SK Hynix: 93/100 SK Hynix’s management team operates with absolute, ruthless operational efficiency, cementing a near-monopoly in the highest-margin sectors of the AI hardware supply chain. While their corporate governance reflects a traditional Korean chaebol structure—meaning individual executives hold virtually zero personal equity—their technical execution, capital discipline, and balance sheet mastery currently represent the gold standard in the global semiconductor space. $ASM.AS: 92/100 ASM International’s management team demonstrates exceptional execution, operational visibility, and capital discipline. While lacking the high insider ownership typical of aggressive, founder-led companies, their pristine balance sheet, brutally accurate multi-year financial forecasting, and active share buyback programs firmly establish them as highly trustworthy stewards of shareholder capital. $OUST: 90/100 Ouster, Inc. (OUST) presents a rare profile in the pre-profit / early-commercialization hardware space: a management team that actually executes on its roadmaps. Led by CEO Angus Pacala, the company has demonstrated strict operational discipline, successfully commercializing its digital lidar technology while maintaining a fortress balance sheet. While historical share dilution from strategic M&A requires monitoring, management’s transparency regarding one-time revenue events and their consistent delivery of hardware margins earn them an elite rating. $PL: 89/100 Planet Labs (PL) is a rare anomaly in the high-growth space: a former SPAC that actually survived its cash-burn phase and successfully transitioned into a free-cash-flow-generating enterprise. While management's equity compensation remains slightly elevated, their exceptional track record of launching highly complex hardware on schedule and their disciplined, jargon-free focus on securing massive government contracts demonstrates supreme execution and integrity. $MRVL: 88/100 Marvell’s management team operates with high technical competence and ruthless strategic clarity, successfully transforming the company from a broad-based silicon provider into a highly focused AI data center powerhouse. While management has faced cyclical headwinds in legacy segments that triggered some guidance volatility, their ability to aggressively hit engineering milestones for custom AI silicon and responsibly manage capital allocation reflects elite, tier-one execution. $PLTR: 87/100 Palantir Technologies (PLTR) features a visionary, high-conviction management team that consistently executes on commercial expansion and product delivery at a scale few enterprise software companies can match. While their aggressive stock-based compensation and slight equity dilution trigger mechanical deductions, their ability to drastically over-deliver on forward guidance and perfectly align capital deployment with their core Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) establishes them as elite operators. $TMDX: 87/100 TransMedics Group (TMDX) possesses an elite, execution-focused management team that has successfully transformed the company from a capital-intensive med-tech startup into a vertically integrated, cash-flowing logistics and clinical powerhouse. While minor deductions are warranted for recent share dilution and stock-based compensation levels, management’s flawless delivery on ambitious infrastructural timelines and mathematically transparent communication earn them near-maximum trust. $HIMS: 85/100 Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) is operated by an aggressively competent management team that has successfully transitioned from a cash-burning SPAC into a highly profitable, cash-flowing entity. While historical share count expansion requires ongoing scrutiny, their ability to execute against stated timelines, beat forward guidance, and seamlessly expand their core direct-to-consumer moat into highly lucrative verticals borders on clinical precision. $RKLB: 79/100 Rocket Lab (RKLB) boasts a highly accountable, founder-led management team that excels in strategic focus and transparent communication, successfully transitioning the company into a space systems and defense prime contractor. While the persistent delays of their heavy-lift Neutron rocket require notable deductions, the company’s ability to consistently meet financial guidance and maintain technical integrity makes them a standout in the capital-intensive aerospace sector. $AMPX: 75/100 Amprius Technologies’ management team exhibits high-level execution regarding product iteration and revenue growth, but this comes at a severe cost to retail equity holders. While the team successfully transitioned the company toward profitability by ruthlessly pivoting to a fabless contract-manufacturing model, their aggressive share dilution and the quiet abandonment of their flagship domestic manufacturing plans reveal a management team that prioritizes survival and top-line growth over pristine shareholder alignment. $FLNC: 73/100 Fluence Energy (FLNC) presents a complex profile of elite financial backing and strong insider alignment, severely undercut by chronic project execution issues and lumpy guidance misses. While management operates with a fortress balance sheet and refuses to artificially pump the stock with trending AI buzzwords, their inability to consistently defend gross margins and deliver predictable quarterly revenues makes them a volatile, high-risk operator in the utility-scale energy storage sector. $IREN: 35/100 IREN (formerly Iris Energy) presents as a highly promotional, capital-intensive infrastructure play that relies heavily on retail shareholder dilution to fund its shifting ambitions. While management has successfully secured impressive debt financing and massive power capacities, their chronic inability to hit original timelines, massive expansion of the share count, and blatant narrative pivot from Bitcoin to Artificial Intelligence reflect a team that prioritizes growth at the direct expense of shareholder equity.

@jasonl_capitalMay 1, 2026 · 11:48 AM

2. $MRVL - Marvell (Electronic ICs) Marvell owns the optical DSP layer - the brains that encode and decode data moving through photonic links. First to ship 1.6T DSPs in volume to hyperscalers. Full stack: Ara DSPs, Alaska PHYs, Nova coherent, silicon photonics light engine, plus TIA and laser driver chipsets. Acquired Polariton Technologies to push toward 3.2T.

@investmentguru_May 1, 2026 · 10:14 AM

Where NOK Sits vs. The Photonics Stack- Most photonics plays are component-level: $COHR, $LITE, $CIEN, $AAOI, $MRVL, $FN, $POET, $LWLG $NOK is the system-level integrator sitting above that entire stack — buying from it, assembling it, and deploying it at hyperscaler + telco scale globally. It’s the platform layer of the optical AI infrastructure trade.

@aleabitoredditMay 1, 2026 · 6:02 AM

As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 7:56 PM

Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.

@investmentguru_Apr 30, 2026 · 10:33 AM

Here’s my 15-stock AI infrastructure watchlist AI INFRASTRUCTURE CORE $MRVL → Custom AI silicon for hyperscalers like Google and AWS → Data center now the core growth engine → Strong XPU positioning in AI compute $CRDO → Critical connectivity layer inside AI clusters → Expanding into silicon photonics and optical transceivers → Direct beneficiary of hyperscaler GPU scaling $ALAB → PCIe/CXL connectivity solving AI server bottlenecks → Key enabler for GPU communication efficiency → Strong execution and AI infrastructure leverage $AAOI → Riding the 800G and 1.6T optical upgrade cycle → Vertical integration gives margin and supply edge → Hyperscaler demand remains strong $MXL → Emerging optical DSP player in AI infrastructure → Pivoted from broadband into data center growth → Early in hyperscaler qualification cycle MEGA-CAP AI COMPOUNDERS $MSFT → Enterprise AI leader via Copilot and Azure → Massive distribution advantage through software ecosystem → AI monetization still in early innings $GOOG → Search funds AI innovation and cloud expansion → Strong custom silicon and AI infrastructure strategy → Multiple growth engines beyond search $AMZN → AWS remains the AI cloud backbone → Aggressive AI infrastructure spending → Retail and ads fuel long-term AI investment SEMICONDUCTOR CYCLE PLAYS $AMD → Leading Nvidia alternative in AI compute → Enterprise traction growing with MI300 → Multiple cycle tailwinds in AI and PCs $MU → HBM memory is essential for AI GPUs → Direct play on AI compute demand → Strong AI-driven memory cycle setup $INTC → Foundry turnaround with strategic US importance → Big upside if execution improves → High risk, high reward setup $ARM → Royalty model across global chip ecosystem → Expanding into AI edge and data center → Benefits from industry-wide chip growth CONNECTIVITY, POWER & INFRA $SIMO → Storage controllers powering AI data growth → NAND cycle recovery adds tailwind → Undervalued storage infrastructure play $NOK → Optical and fiber backbone for data traffic growth → Beneficiary of telecom and hyperscaler upgrades → Defensive infrastructure exposure $BE → On-site energy for power-hungry AI data centers → Solves grid bottleneck challenges → Direct energy infrastructure AI play AI is not one stock. It’s chips, memory, optics, networking, storage, and power. Follow the infrastructure. That’s where the real compounding happens. Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 8:11 AM

@TVAFR786 $1.4B MC is tiny? Especially if their lasers likely power $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T LRO, $AAPL Silicon Photonics, Ayar (AlChip), Lightmatter, O-Net End users (Asian Hyperscalers), and others.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 8:01 AM

Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.

@investmentguru_Apr 30, 2026 · 2:35 AM

Photonics & Semiconductors: The Quiet Kings of This Market The rotation is happening in plain sight. While macro noise dominates headlines, photonics and semiconductor names are quietly building the infrastructure that every AI workload, data center, and next-gen network depends on — and the market is starting to reprice that reality. $COHR, $LITE, $MRVL, $CIEN, $INTC, $SNDK , $AXTI, $MU , $AAOI, and $SIMO aren’t just riding a trend; they’re supplying the rails that the entire AI buildout runs on. Optical interconnects, silicon photonics, and coherent transceivers aren’t optional upgrades — they’re the physical bottleneck every hyperscaler is scrambling to solve right now. On the semiconductor side, the thesis is just as structural: demand for specialized chips across AI inference, optical engines, and edge compute isn’t slowing; it’s accelerating into 2026 and beyond. When bandwidth demand grows exponentially and copper simply can’t keep up, light wins — and the companies enabling that shift are sitting at the intersection of two of the most durable capex cycles in market history. This isn’t hype. This is infrastructure.

@investmentguru_Apr 30, 2026 · 2:28 AM

The full CPU stack: understands each layer, you can find many play Architecture - $ARM Design- $AMD $INTC $QCOM Foundry- $TSM $GFS Memory- $MU Storage- $SIMO Connectivity- $ALAB $TMBS Custom silicon- $AVGO $MRVL Future Architecture (RISC-V via Tenstorrent, $CAN)

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 1:00 AM

I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research).
 For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.

@semianalysis_Apr 29, 2026 · 1:00 AM

With $MRVL catching a bid on some positive newsflow, now's the perfect time for management to fire up stakeholders with an AI update. They can even dust off the 2024 AI Era Day deck. A few slides will need light edits... https://t.co/Uh2OWwZRwb

@jasonl_capitalApr 28, 2026 · 12:59 PM

5. $MRVL - Marvell Technology Custom silicon, DPUs, and connectivity infrastructure for AI racks. Roughly 75% of revenue now tied to data centers, cloud, and custom silicon. In discussions with Google about building custom AI chips. Just acquired Polariton Technologies for high-speed silicon photonics. As CPU ratios rise and inference scales, Marvell's infrastructure solutions connect all of it together.

@investmentguru_Apr 28, 2026 · 11:24 AM

Watching $CRDO & $MRVL — Waiting for the Pullback Two of the strongest AI infrastructure names on my radar right now. Not chasing. Building a position on weakness. $CRDO High-speed connectivity for AI data centers Revenue up 226% TTM — not a typo FY27 revenue growth guided at 75%+ YoY Major hyperscaler customers: Amazon, Microsoft, xAI Just acquired DustPhotonics → expanding into silicon photonics SerDes chiplets + optical DSPs = critical AI interconnect layer Operating margin at 36.8% — rare for a high-growth semi Every AI cluster needs to move data fast. $CRDO is the plumbing. $MRVL Custom ASICs + optical interconnects for hyperscalers Data center revenue compounding at scale Co-packaged optics + silicon photonics exposure Serving Google, Amazon, Microsoft on custom silicon programs Earnings May 21 — next major catalyst Just hit all-time highs → now cooling off Custom silicon for AI is the next $100B TAM. $MRVL is already inside the hyperscaler ecosystem. Waiting for a controlled pullback Will add in tranches — not all at once Both are long-term holds, not trades Photonics + custom silicon = the unsexy backbone of the AI boom. These two own it. Watching closely. Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_Apr 28, 2026 · 10:37 AM

Semis and photonics are seeing a healthy pullback — that’s often just a technical reset after strong momentum. If you missed the last run and had the patience not to chase, this is the time to build your watchlist and map out the levels that make sense for your entries. Good setups come to those who wait for price, not emotions. $CRDO $MRVL $AMD $ARM $AAOI $COHR $GFS $RMBS

@investmentguru_Apr 28, 2026 · 10:12 AM

$AMD $ARM $MRVL $CRDO $AMKR $RMBS $TSEM all seeing pullbacks after strong recent runs. Nothing unusual — healthy consolidation after momentum can create the next setup. Keep them on the watchlist. Strong names often give better entries when sentiment cools and price resets.

@aleabitoredditApr 28, 2026 · 8:03 AM

@tme5s So $POET does the packaging side of things. If $MRVL dropped Poet, it means Marvell felt they could vertically integrate that layer into Celestial and just buy lasers directly themselves (not just the nda dispute). Marvell would still need to buy lasers. I'm sure they're planning multi-source contracts but I don't think $NVDA would share allocation to $MRVL. Which is why $SIVE is likely still the laser supplier direct to Marvell since they fit celestial specs already, and that just cuts out a middleware player.

@aleabitoredditApr 28, 2026 · 7:45 AM

I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.

@aleabitoredditApr 28, 2026 · 12:57 AM

“1.6T optical modules are near mass adoption this year” So nothing new but this just confirms timelines for volume production/mass adoption H2 2026. $AVGO and $MRVL are cited as main beneficiaries in the report but names like $AAOI are probably the most profound beneficiaries (largest 1.6T capacity US projected) for the pure play exposure. $JBL also set to go brrrr but my guess is H1 2027 with wave2 architectures since their LRO architectures remove the DSP (with $INTC SiPH acquisition IP). Jabil would be a good contrarian long in the broader 1.6T supercycle coming up if this gets broader adoption from $META validation but benefits anyway. And especially $SIVE that powers Jabil 1.6T LRO, that when they scale, it scales laser demand too. I think everyone focuses on the upstream supply chains nowadays but going long on Broadcom and Marvell doesn’t hurt too.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 6:36 PM

Pretend $SIVE, $LITE make specialized blue and red maine lobsters. Very rare, not many people can do. $POET steams the lobsters and prepares it in a ready-to-go container. $MRVL buys those lobster tails, puts it together on a plate with broccoli and steak. Then serves it at the highest price to high end customers. Marvell is famous for serving Blue lobster tails. But can always serve Red ones, and it’s easier to keep serving Blue that they’re used to. And it’s also possible for the Red lobster farmer to shift to Blue lobsters with some effort, but it takes time to raise those lobsters. But… it just so happens Marvell’s competitor Nvidia bought out all the Red Lobsters for their restaurant. In the end, they still need those rare blue Maine lobsters. But just decided to steam it themselves. That’s $POET and $MRVL situation. It’s likely they’ll just go buy lobsters directly since you can’t just spawn Blue lobsters.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:54 PM

@tme5s $LITE and $COHR are probably majority/fully allocated to $NVDA after their deals. Since Nvidia did the same thing with EML last year. It's harder to do that with Win since they're a merchant foundry, so it's likely $MRVL just goes directly to $SIVE since they already fit Celestial specifications.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:51 PM

@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process. They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:33 PM

@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:27 PM

Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:21 PM

@FlachtFunds It's not good news. But it's not that bad either. $LITE likely has capacity allocated toward $NVDA, which is why $AMD CPO (likely) went with $SIVE + $GFS is my guess. $MRVL will probably just buy from $SIVE directly and multi-source, maybe $MTSI and design out the packaging side of things in-house.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:16 PM

Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:11 PM

@AD14977 I've always said $POET is the most likely to get designed out down the road. They just buy lasers and package them... and $MRVL can just go directly to the laser source and do the same with some delays to their roadmap.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 3:56 PM

@Jackylee811574 $MRVL will likely do that interposer packaging IP in-house. I did expect them to design out $POET down the road, just not this early. They can just buy lasers directly from someone like $LITE or $SIVE and build the process themselves. Laser design is much much harder than the packaging side of things.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 3:44 PM

@BrokeBoyCap Oh, I'm guessing $MRVL is vertically integrating the packaging process after buying the lasers from someone like $SIVE or $LITE. That's what I said earlier it's a lot easier to do that layer than upstream lasers.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 3:26 PM

$MRVL cancelled $POET purchase orders after the CFO went out and violated NDA when getting angry. Ouch to Poet, down -46%, this is why I don’t like companies with single customer concentration risk. On the bright side for $POET holders they do have $420m cash buffering downside risk and a few other customers (though Marvell was basically the entire Poet bull case story) It does look like Marvell delayed their own timelines as well by doing this. That being said, the packaging side is easier to design out for Marvell and they still need to source lasers.

@kaizen_investorApr 27, 2026 · 2:35 PM

@RealYuvaraj Would be a crazy from $MRVL, but they will buy the lawsuits of the investors as well. So, don't think they will do that.

@kaizen_investorApr 27, 2026 · 1:30 PM

Not the best way to start my Monday. $POET down almost 50% after $MRVL cancelled all the orders for Celestial AI. The reason? POET breached the NDA last week. The NDA is a confidentiality agreement between both parties to keep the cooperation secret. After the short report, the POET management tried to appease investors by confirming the purchase order of Marvell. One of the most stupid decisions, certainly if you know you have an NDA. The only positive here is that the cancellation is not about the technology. On the other hand, the fact that they pusher POET aside so quickly, means that they believe they have other solutions available imo. I need to let this sink in for a minute. Not selling my shares atm.

@investmentguru_Apr 27, 2026 · 1:10 PM

$POET down over 40% after $MRVL canceled all purchase orders tied to Celestial AI including initial production orders first disclosed in 2023.

@investmentguru_Apr 27, 2026 · 10:48 AM

The full CPU stack: check for details in post Architecture - $ARM Design- $AMD $INTC $QCOM Foundry- $TSM $GFS Memory- $MU Storage- $SIMO Connectivity- $ALAB $TMBS Custom silicon- $AVGO $MRVL Future Architecture (RISC-V via Tenstorrent, $CAN)

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 8:40 AM

@ponzy_picasso I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.

@aleabitoredditApr 26, 2026 · 5:09 PM

TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.

@investmentguru_Apr 26, 2026 · 12:11 PM

The full CPU stack: Architecture - $ARM Design- $AMD $INTC $QCOM Foundry- $TSM $GFS Memory- $MU Storage- $SIMO Connectivity- $ALAB $TMBS Custom silicon- $AVGO $MRVL Future Architecture (RISC-V via Tenstorrent, $CAN)

@investmentguru_Apr 26, 2026 · 11:35 AM

CPU ecosystem map across every tier: TIER 1 — Pure CPU Giants $INTC — Intel. The turnaround is real. Q1 2026: revenue $13.58B, EPS $0.29 crushed $0.01 consensus. Data Center revenue +22% YoY. Stock surged nearly 25% in a single session. CEO Lip-Bu Tan declared: “The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user — from foundational models to inference to agentic.”  Up 80%+ YTD before that gap. $AMD — EPYC CPU order book nearly sold out for 2026. Q4 2025 revenue $10.27B, up 34% YoY, with record Data Center revenue of $5.38B.  MI400 platform coming. 1-year return: +269%. The share-gainer. $ARM — The toll road of CPUs. Used in 99% of the world’s smartphone CPU cores.  In 2026, ARM announced the launch of its own CPU products on top of its existing royalty business.  Up +87% YTD before Intel’s earnings day gap. Capital-light, royalty compounder. TIER 2 — CPU-ADJACENT INFRASTRUCTURE $QCOM — Snapdragon X Elite attacking PC CPU market with ARM-based Oryon cores. Edge AI CPU momentum building across enterprise. Automotive + IoT CPU exposure via Snapdragon Cockpit Elite. $MRVL — Custom XPU + CPU silicon. 18+ socket wins. $75B design pipeline. Data center CPU-adjacent workloads = direct tailwind. $AVGO — Custom ASICs + CPU workload accelerators for hyperscalers. AI business grew 106% YoY to $8.4B last quarter. Projects $100B+ business by 2027.  The ASIC answer to x86. $TSM — Makes every CPU on the planet. TSMC fabs AMD EPYC, Apple silicon, Qualcomm Snapdragon. ~70% foundry market share. Trading 14% below Morningstar fair value of $428.  You can’t build a CPU without TSMC. TIER 3 — CPU ENABLERS & PICKS/SHOVELS $MU — Every CPU needs memory. Micron can only fulfill half-to-two-thirds of current medium-term demand. Revenue was $13.6B two quarters ago, $23.9B last quarter, guiding $33.5B next quarter.  Memory is the bottleneck. $SIMO — SSD controllers feeding CPU storage layers in AI data centers. 46% YoY revenue growth. PCIe Gen5 controllers showcased at NVIDIA GTC 2026. The quiet CPU enabler. $ALAB — PCIe + CXL connectivity silicon — the bus that CPUs talk to everything else on. 75%+ gross margins. Zero debt. Every AI CPU cluster needs Astera Labs. $RMBS — Rambus. Memory interface IP. LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 server memory chipset for AI CPUs. ~80% gross margins. Capital-light IP model — gets paid every time a CPU ships with their interface. $GFS — GlobalFoundries. Specialty foundry for RF, automotive, aerospace, and IoT CPUs. The mature-node CPU manufacturer for defense + industrial. TIER 4 — RISC-V REVOLUTION (THE FUTURE CPU WAR) Tenstorrent (private — Jim Keller’s company) — First-gen RISC-V CPU “Ascalon” delivers 10-20 SPECint2006/GHz, competing directly with ARM’s Neoverse V2.  IP licensees already include LG and Hyundai.  Backed by Hyundai, Kia, Samsung. Watch for IPO. $CAN — Canaan Creative. Launched the world’s first commercial edge AI chip based on RISC-V.  Public, listed, speculative. RISC-V + AI edge play in one ticker. SiFive (private) — The ARM of RISC-V. Intel tried to acquire for $2B. CPU IP licensing model. IPO candidate to watch. TIER 5 — HYPERSCALER CUSTOM CPUs (Own The CPU, Own The Cloud) $AMZN — Graviton ARM-based CPUs + Trainium AI chips. Trainium 2 and 3 at max capacity. Nearly all Gen 4 capacity already pre-sold 18 months out.  AWS custom CPU = lowest cloud compute cost. $GOOGL — TPU + custom ARM CPU for Google Cloud. Fastest-growing cloud CPU fleet. $MSFT — Azure custom ARM silicon + Cobalt CPU. AI inference at edge + cloud. Azure fastest-growing hyperscaler by AI workload. The GPU era is maturing. The CPU supercycle is just loading up. Every layer of this stack is a potential winner. Not financial advice.

@investmentguru_Apr 26, 2026 · 11:09 AM

The AI trade is evolving — and CPUs may be the next breakout. For the last two years, everyone chased GPUs. That made sense — training models needed massive parallel compute. But the next phase of AI looks different: - Agentic AI needs orchestration, memory handling, workflow execution, and sequential reasoning — CPU-heavy workloads. - Inference at scale isn’t just about GPUs. CPUs manage the stack, coordinate workloads, and keep AI systems moving. - Data center CPU demand is tightening, and supply constraints are starting to show. Names to watch: $AMD — EPYC demand remains strong, with enterprise and cloud adoption accelerating. Earnings could be a major catalyst. $INTC — Turnaround momentum is building. Better-than-expected guidance has put Intel back in the conversation. $ARM — The architecture behind modern computing. More AI devices = more royalty leverage. $MRVL — Custom silicon and infrastructure exposure make it a strong secondary AI beneficiary. $QCOM — Quietly building CPU momentum through Snapdragon and edge AI. Big picture: AI is shifting from training → inference → autonomous agents. Phase 1 rewarded GPU leaders. Phase 2 could reward CPU infrastructure. The market always rotates before the crowd notices. Keep CPUs on your radar.

@aleabitoredditApr 26, 2026 · 7:20 AM

Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.

@mrmikeinvestingApr 26, 2026 · 12:26 AM

THE FULL PHOTONICS BOTTLENECK It’s clear that the next phase of AI scaling is no longer compute, but rather optical connectivity. 1. $AAOI builds high-speed transceivers with vertically integrated lnP laser manufacturing and early 1.6T hyperscale demand. 2. $AEHR providing burn-in and reliability testing for AI and optical hardware, with Sonoma gaining traction at hyperscalers. 3. $AVGO delivers core networking and optical connectivity through custom silicone used across hyperscale AI infrastructure. 4. $COHR scaling lnP lasers, and optical engines to support next-gen AI networking demand. 5. $MRVL builds DSP and interconnect silicone that powers, high speed optical infrastructure. 6. $LITE supplies lasers and optical components backed by NVDA, and a growing optical switching backlog. 7. $CRDO enables faster data movement through cables, retimers, and interconnect silicone, expanding into silicone photonics. 8. $CSCO provides switching, routing, and optical networking gear that ties AI clusters together at scale.

@investmentguru_Apr 25, 2026 · 10:29 PM

10 Stocks Built for LT Returns - $MU — The HBM supercycle play. Entire 2026 HBM output already sold out. Forecasts 40% CAGR in HBM market to ~$100B, surpassing all of 2024 DRAM. Q1: 57% YoY sales growth, 56.8% gross margins, EPS up 167%. This is the memory backbone of AI. $MRVL — AI data center powerhouse. 74% of revenue now from data centers. 18+ XPU socket wins, $75B design pipeline, targeting 20% of a $94B TAM by 2028. Acquiring Celestial AI for photonic fabric tech. Custom silicon + optics = long runway. $CRDO — The picks & shovels play on AI networking. Stock up 1,700% since 2022 IPO. Active Electrical Cables dominating hyperscaler deployments. $10B+ TAM across 5 product pillars. AEC adoption still early innings — long growth runway ahead. $ARM — The architecture that runs everything. Every smartphone, AI edge device, and custom chip from Apple to NVIDIA to AWS runs on ARM IP. Royalty + licensing model = recurring revenue with zero fab risk. As custom silicon proliferates, ARM gets paid more per chip. The toll road of semiconductors. $ALAB — Elite AI connectivity pure play. 75.7% gross margins, 25.7% profit margins, $1.1B+ cash, zero debt. PCIe + CXL connectivity for hyperscalers. 17 of 19 analysts rate Buy with median PT of $205. Premium valuation but premium business. $RMBS — The memory IP kingpin. ~80% gross margins, ~40% EBIT margins. Just launched SOCAMM2 LPDDR5X server memory chipset targeting AI data centers. Capital-light, IP-driven model = durable cash flows. Underrated in the AI memory stack conversation. $AAOI — AI optical networking rocket ship. Up 1,200%+ in one year. Supplying 800G and 1.6T fiber-optic modules to hyperscalers. 97% revenue concentration with top customers — high risk but massive growth. Earnings May 7. Valuation stretched at 180x+ forward. $APH — Amphenol. The quiet compounder. Makes connectors, sensors & cables used in AI data centers, EVs, defense, aerospace. Boring product, extraordinary execution. Long-term hold for diversified tech infrastructure exposure. $MXL — Just surged 80% in a day on Q1 earnings beat. Optical data center business tied directly to AI infrastructure. Needham upgraded to Buy, peers it with MRVL/CRDO/ALAB on valuation multiples. Increased 2026 outlook. The laggard that caught up fast. $GFS — GlobalFoundries. Specialty foundry with focus on mature nodes — RF chips, automotive, aerospace, IoT. Less exposure to bleeding-edge AI race but massive structural demand from defense + auto electrification. Stable, strategic, long-duration play. all positioned at the intersection of AI infrastructure, high-speed connectivity, and semiconductor supply chain. This is where capital is flowing for the next decade. Time in market > timing the market. Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditApr 25, 2026 · 5:21 PM

@yuntungshieh I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.