$TSM

@thevalueistMay 25, 2026 · 6:56 PM

$TSM $ASML $NVDA Even if this @Huawei Tau is more smoke than fire, it demonstrates how hyper-focused the CCP is on being chip independent. $ACMR is a great way to trade it.

@thevalueistMay 25, 2026 · 3:52 PM

This response below is the general legitimate consensus I’m gathering. I will look to add $TSM $ASML or anything related if there is a gap down on the @Huawei Tau news.

@aleabitoredditMay 25, 2026 · 3:46 AM

Oh look, a new UDN article about $TSM COUPE + AI optical markets. Institutional investors are optimistic that Taiwanese companies: FOCI (3363), and MSScorps (6830) are expected to benefit But... that "Institutional" should be changed to retail investors on X? For FOCI: "Its FAU products have been developed in cooperation with TSMC for at least three years, and the specifications have been promoted to 1.6T, 3.2T, and the subsequent mass production schedule has become the focus of market observation." For MSS: "cut into the silicon photonics and CPO detection analysis, the main "light loss detection" technology ... and launch of the silicon photonics test platform, lock in research and development, engineering verification, failure analysis and a small number of diverse test applications." These are still two extremely small companies... and things like MSS weren't even mentioned by GS, despite the news claims about relations. So feels like X found this early, mainstream institutions are likely about to enter after seeing this sort of confirmation.

@thevalueistMay 25, 2026 · 2:49 AM

$TSM $ASML $NVDA $INTC $AMD EXECUTIVE CONCLUSION Huawei’s announcement should be treated as a strategically important semiconductor road map, not as verified evidence that Huawei or SMIC has solved conventional 1.4nm high-volume manufacturing without EUV lithography. The substantive claim is narrower and more nuanced than the headline interpretation: Huawei is asserting that a design methodology called the Tau Scaling Law, including LogicFolding at the circuit level and system-level memory/interconnect optimization, can deliver high-end chips by 2031 with transistor-density equivalence to 14 Å, or 1.4nm, rather than asserting that SMIC has an independently validated 1.4nm process node in production. That distinction is critical. The announcement is credible as a direction of travel because the industry is already moving from pure geometric scaling toward design-technology co-optimization, system-technology co-optimization, chiplets, backside power, advanced packaging, memory hierarchy optimization, and software-hardware co-design. However, it does not invalidate the economic and manufacturing role of EUV for generic, high-yield, leading-edge logic production. The most objective interpretation is that Huawei is attempting to compensate for lithography constraints through architecture, layout, interconnect, packaging, and system-level engineering, which may reduce the practical performance gap in selected products and workloads but is unlikely to fully close the broad manufacturing gap with TSMC by 2031 on a like-for-like, yield-adjusted, cost-adjusted, power-performance-area basis. Huawei’s official disclosure says the company has mass-produced 381 chips based on the Tau Scaling Law over the past 6 years, that Fall 2026 Kirin chips will be the first to adopt LogicFolding, and that by 2031 high-end chips designed on the methodology are expected to reach 14 Å-equivalent transistor density. Reuters separately noted that Huawei did not provide independent performance data, which materially limits the evidentiary value of the claim at this stage. WHAT HUAWEI ACTUALLY CLAIMED The Huawei article presents Tau Scaling as a replacement or supplement for geometric scaling, with “time” or τ as the optimization target. The core framing is that system capability should scale by reducing signal propagation delay and end-to-end execution time rather than relying solely on shrinking transistor dimensions. Huawei describes a 4-layer optimization stack. At the device level, resistance and parasitic capacitance are reduced. At the circuit level, LogicFolding is positioned as a way to break traditional layout boundaries, shorten critical-path wiring, reduce resistive and capacitive load, improve transistor density, and improve circuit performance. At the chip level, software, architecture, and silicon are co-designed to control instruction and data flows, improve parallelism, and reduce execution time. At the system level, Huawei points to UnifiedBus, unified memory addressing, native memory semantics, and SuperPoD communications latency reduction. This is not a narrow transistor-manufacturing announcement. It is a full-stack semiconductor architecture claim. The IEEE ISCAS framing reinforces that interpretation. He Tingbo’s keynote abstract describes the problem as the declining effectiveness of Moore’s Law and Dennard scaling as lithographic and atomic limits approach, and asks how capability and performance can continue to scale without further device shrinking. The abstract states that Huawei Semiconductor has spent more than 5 years exploring design methodologies and has commercially deployed more than 150 advanced chips under this approach. Huawei’s own press release uses the higher figure of 381 mass-produced chips based on the Tau Scaling Law, which appears to include a broader universe of chips than “advanced chips” referenced in the keynote abstract. The numbers are not necessarily inconsistent, but they indicate that Huawei is positioning Tau Scaling as a broad engineering methodology already embedded in its product base, not a single upcoming process breakthrough. The most important phrase in the announcement is “transistor density equivalent to 14 Å processes.” “Equivalent” is doing substantial work. A conventional 1.4nm process claim would require disclosure of standard-cell density, SRAM density, contact poly pitch, metal pitch, transistor architecture, backside power implementation, interconnect stack, overlay capability, mask count, defect density, yield, cycle time, wafer cost, and volume ramp schedule. Huawei disclosed none of those metrics. The announcement therefore cannot be benchmarked as a true foundry-node claim. It should instead be treated as a statement that Huawei expects design and system-level methods to make certain chips exhibit effective density or performance characteristics comparable to what the industry associates with 1.4nm-class logic. That may matter commercially, especially in captive Chinese ecosystems, but it is not the same as broad process parity with TSMC. TECHNICAL INTERPRETATION The technical premise is directionally sound. At advanced nodes, performance is no longer determined primarily by transistor switching speed. Interconnect delay, parasitic capacitance, routing congestion, SRAM scaling limits, power delivery, memory bandwidth, data movement, packaging, compiler behavior, and distributed-system latency increasingly determine realized performance. The industry has therefore shifted from a simple node-shrink model to a model where performance gains are extracted from design-technology co-optimization, 3D integration, advanced packaging, chiplets, backside power delivery, customized accelerators, memory proximity, and domain-specific software stacks. Huawei’s Tau Scaling framework sits squarely within this industry shift. The emphasis on reducing τ across device, circuit, chip, and system levels is conceptually aligned with where leading-edge semiconductor innovation is already moving. LogicFolding appears to target one of the most important bottlenecks in advanced logic design: the cost of moving signals across dense layouts. As wires become narrower and interconnect stacks more complex, resistive-capacitive delay and routing congestion can offset some transistor-level gains from node scaling. Shortening critical paths, rethinking placement, folding logic blocks, and reorganizing local interconnect can improve frequency, reduce power, or free layout area even without a new lithography node. This kind of optimization can produce meaningful product-level gains, especially in designs with predictable dataflow or repeated compute structures such as NPUs, DSPs, modem blocks, image processors, and AI accelerators. It is less likely to produce universal, node-like gains across arbitrary logic, SRAM, analog, RF, and large monolithic AI dies. The approach is especially relevant for Huawei because it is structurally constrained in manufacturing. SMIC has demonstrated 7nm-class production without EUV, including the Kirin 9000s inside the Huawei Mate 60 Pro, which TechInsights identified as an SMIC-manufactured 7nm-class chip made without EUV tools. That was a genuine engineering milestone and showed that China could push DUV multi-patterning further than many expected. However, TechInsights also described the device as more advanced than SMIC’s 14nm process while still having larger critical dimensions than 5nm-class processes. This supports the view that China has reached a capable 7nm-class baseline but has not demonstrated full parity with 5nm, 3nm, 2nm, or 1.4nm high-volume manufacturing economics. The likely path for Huawei is therefore not a straight lithographic catch-up path. It is a compensation path. Huawei can use mature or constrained process technology more aggressively by redesigning circuits, improving floorplans, using larger die area where acceptable, combining dies in packages, optimizing software, controlling system architecture, and accepting higher power or cost in strategic markets. This is already visible in Huawei’s AI accelerator strategy. Reuters reported that the Ascend 910C was expected to be an architectural evolution rather than a pure process breakthrough, combining 2 Ascend 910B processors in 1 package to approximate higher-end performance. That is consistent with a strategy of using integration and system design to offset node disadvantage. THE LITHOGRAPHY QUESTION The announcement does not make ASML’s EUV technology irrelevant. ASML states that EUV systems enable mass production of the world’s most advanced microchips, that EUV uses 13.5nm wavelength light, and that its NXE systems support the most complex layers used in 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm nodes. ASML also states that High-NA EUV, with 0.55 numerical aperture and 8nm resolution, is intended to support geometric scaling into the next decade, beginning around 2nm-class logic. The significance is that EUV is not just about printing smaller features; it also reduces the number of multi-patterning steps, overlay exposures, defect opportunities, process complexity, and cycle-time penalties required to manufacture dense logic at scale. DUV multi-patterning can extend surprisingly far, but the economics deteriorate rapidly as feature density rises. Each additional patterning step introduces more masks, more etch and deposition steps, more overlay risk, more metrology burden, longer cycle times, more yield loss, and higher wafer cost. For selected products with strategic value, subsidies, captive demand, or limited volume, those economics can be tolerated. For broad commercial foundry competitiveness against TSMC at the leading edge, they are much harder to sustain. This is the central distinction between technical feasibility and economic competitiveness. Huawei and SMIC may be able to produce increasingly advanced chips under severe constraints, but producing them at TSMC-like yield, cost, cycle time, power efficiency, and volume is a materially higher bar. The Bloomberg framing that Huawei could challenge the consensus around EUV is directionally interesting but should not be overextended. It is true that a credible 1.4nm-equivalent product by 2031 would weaken the simplistic assumption that only classical node shrinks matter. It would not prove that EUV is unnecessary for the industry’s broad leading edge. The more nuanced interpretation is that Huawei is attempting to reduce dependence on the weakest part of China’s semiconductor stack by shifting the optimization frontier from lithography to full-stack design. That is strategically rational. It is also exactly the kind of adaptation that export controls were likely to incentivize. COMPARISON WITH TSMC The TSMC comparison remains the key investment benchmark. TSMC announced A14 in 2025 as its next cutting-edge logic process, scheduled for production in 2028, with up to 15% speed improvement at the same power, up to 30% power reduction at the same speed, and more than 20% logic-density improvement versus N2. In 2026, TSMC then announced A13 as a direct shrink of A14, providing 6% area savings from A14, backward-compatible design rules, and scheduled production in 2029. TSMC also announced A12 for 2029 with backside power delivery, N2U for 2028, larger CoWoS packaging, A14-to-A14 SoIC for 2029, and co-packaged optics beginning production in 2026. The implication is that Huawei’s 2031 “1.4nm-equivalent” target should not be compared only against TSMC’s 2028 A14. By 2031, TSMC is likely to be several iterations beyond A14 in process, packaging, backside power, SoIC, optical I/O, and system integration. TSMC’s 2026 disclosures also complicate a simplistic High-NA narrative. Reuters reported that TSMC expects to extract gains from existing ASML EUV machines rather than immediately relying on more expensive High-NA EUV systems for the disclosed A13 and N2U road map. That is relevant because it shows that even the leading foundry is using optimization, integration, and existing-tool leverage rather than treating every generation as a pure lithography transition. However, TSMC is still operating from an EUV-enabled base with massive process control, yield learning, customer design enablement, and advanced packaging scale. Huawei is attempting to optimize from a more constrained manufacturing base without access to the same lithography stack. TSMC’s current operating performance underscores the scale of the gap. In Q1 2026, TSMC reported USD 35.90bn of revenue, 66.2% gross margin, 58.1% operating margin, and 50.5% net margin. Advanced nodes of 7nm and below represented 74% of wafer revenue, with 3nm at 25% and 5nm at 36%. HPC represented 61% of revenue. These figures indicate that TSMC is not merely leading in process technology; it is monetizing that lead at very high margins through AI and HPC demand, with a broad customer base and a deep advanced-node revenue mix. Huawei’s announcement is relevant to the long-term competitive landscape, but it does not change the near-term earnings power or customer lock-in of TSMC. FEASIBILITY AND CREDIBILITY The probability distribution should be separated into 3 different claims. The first claim, that Huawei can improve performance and density on constrained nodes through circuit, architecture, and system optimization, is highly credible. The second claim, that Huawei and SMIC can push DUV-based manufacturing closer to 5nm-class and potentially 3nm-class products for strategic use cases, is plausible but heavily dependent on yield, cost, equipment availability, design restrictions, and government support. The third claim, that Huawei can reach broad, high-volume, TSMC-comparable 1.4nm manufacturing economics without EUV by 2031, remains low probability based on the evidence currently available. The announced road map is technically interesting, but it is not independently verified, and it lacks the metrics required to support a conclusion of true process parity. Huawei’s credibility should not be dismissed. The company has a very large engineering base, deep systems knowledge, captive product demand across smartphones, telecom infrastructure, cloud, automotive, and AI, and a strategic mandate from Beijing’s technology self-sufficiency agenda. Huawei reported 2025 revenue of CNY 880.9bn, net profit of CNY 68.0bn, R&D investment of CNY 192.3bn, and R&D intensity of 21.8% of revenue. It also disclosed 114,000 R&D employees, representing 53.7% of employees, and more than 165,000 active granted patents. This is an unusually deep internal capability base for sustained semiconductor iteration under constraints. At the same time, Huawei’s strengths do not remove the manufacturing bottlenecks. Advanced logic requires not only design IP but also lithography, deposition, etch, cleaning, metrology, inspection, photoresists, pellicles, masks, EDA, IP libraries, memory, advanced packaging, HBM supply, test equipment, and yield-learning infrastructure. Export controls since 2019 have restricted Huawei’s access to high-end U.S. chips and equipment, and U.S. rules beginning in 2022 were designed specifically to limit China’s ability to purchase and manufacture certain high-end semiconductors. The Netherlands has also expanded export-control requirements on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. These controls do not prevent all progress, but they raise cost, complexity, and time-to-yield. The best evidence point to monitor is not the 2031 statement. It is the Fall 2026 Kirin implementation. If Kirin chips using LogicFolding demonstrate meaningful die-size-adjusted performance-per-watt gains versus prior Huawei/SMIC baselines at the same or similar process generation, the market should assign higher credibility to Tau Scaling. If the gains are mostly benchmark-specific, thermally constrained, or achieved through larger die area and higher power, the road map should be treated as more promotional. The relevant metrics will be die size, transistor count, standard-cell density, SRAM density, process identification, benchmark efficiency, thermal envelope, modem performance, NPU throughput, yield inference from availability, and teardown evidence of layout changes. AI AND SYSTEM-LEVEL IMPLICATIONS For AI, the announcement matters more at the system level than at the transistor label level. AI accelerator performance is increasingly determined by memory bandwidth, interconnect, compiler efficiency, parallel scaling, networking, power delivery, package size, and software ecosystem. Huawei’s emphasis on UnifiedBus, SuperPoDs, unified memory addressing, and system communications latency is therefore commercially relevant. A domestic Chinese AI stack does not need to match Nvidia on every metric to capture significant demand inside China. It needs to be available, sanctioned-resilient, supported by domestic software frameworks, adequate for local models and inference workloads, and scalable across China’s cloud and enterprise infrastructure. The near-term China AI substitution story is already underway. Reuters reported in 2025 that Huawei planned mass shipments of the Ascend 910C and that Chinese customers were looking for domestic alternatives as Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips remained restricted for China. A U.S. official separately estimated Huawei’s 2025 advanced AI chip production capability at no more than 200,000 units, highlighting that supply capacity was still a limiting factor. This combination is important: Huawei may be strategically advantaged in domestic demand capture, but constrained in volume and likely still behind Nvidia in leading-edge performance, power efficiency, software maturity, and total system capability. Tau Scaling could be most valuable for inference, edge AI, telecom workloads, government cloud, and controlled Chinese software environments. These are areas where workload-specific optimization, compiler control, and system-level design can compensate for weaker process technology. Large-scale frontier training remains harder because it requires leading compute density, HBM capacity and bandwidth, high-radix networking, advanced packaging, power efficiency, cluster reliability, and software maturity at extreme scale. Huawei can narrow the gap through vertical integration and domestic demand, but the hurdle for global parity in frontier AI training systems remains substantially higher than the hurdle for usable domestic inference capacity. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS For ASML, the announcement is not a near-term thesis breaker. ASML’s exposure is driven primarily by leading-edge customers outside China, especially TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and the AI memory and logic supply chain. ASML reported Q1 2026 net sales of EUR 8.8bn, gross margin of 53.0%, net income of EUR 2.8bn, and 2026 net sales guidance of EUR 36bn to EUR 40bn with 51% to 53% gross margin. Management explicitly tied demand strength to AI infrastructure and customers accelerating capacity expansion. Huawei’s announcement may incrementally reinforce the long-term risk that China develops partial workarounds and domestic tools, but it does not reduce the value of EUV to the non-China leading-edge ecosystem. The more subtle ASML risk is not that Huawei eliminates EUV demand. It is that the industry may extend existing EUV generations longer than expected through DTCO, packaging, backside power, and system scaling, potentially delaying the slope of High-NA adoption. TSMC’s reported intent to keep leveraging existing EUV rather than rapidly moving to High-NA for some disclosed road-map elements is consistent with that possibility. However, this is not directly bearish for ASML’s low-NA EUV installed base, service revenue, or broader lithography demand. It is more relevant to High-NA timing, mix, and valuation expectations than to the structural need for EUV in leading-edge logic and memory. For TSMC, the announcement is a long-term geopolitical and China-substitution risk, not a near-term competitive threat. TSMC’s process cadence, advanced packaging road map, customer ecosystem, yield learning, and financial performance remain far ahead. Huawei’s 2031 target is framed against 14 Å-equivalent density, while TSMC has A14 production scheduled for 2028 and A13/A12 production scheduled for 2029. By 2031, the relevant TSMC comparison will likely be a post-A13 platform plus larger CoWoS, SoIC, backside power, and optical I/O integration. TSMC’s moat is therefore expanding from transistor density into the entire AI compute assembly stack. For Nvidia, the announcement reinforces the view that China revenue should be modeled as structurally impaired and contested, rather than as a normalized extension of global demand. Huawei does not need to beat Nvidia globally to reduce Nvidia’s China opportunity. It needs to provide “good enough” domestic AI accelerators where Nvidia’s best products are restricted. In that sense, Huawei’s Tau Scaling strategy is an endogenous response to export controls that may permanently shift Chinese customers toward indigenous hardware, even if Huawei remains behind on absolute performance. The risk is most acute in inference, government, telecom, and state-backed cloud deployments, and less acute in unrestricted global markets where Nvidia retains a substantial advantage in CUDA, networking, systems, developer ecosystem, and leading-edge TSMC access. For Chinese semiconductor supply chains, the announcement is incrementally positive. A credible LogicFolding and Tau Scaling road map would increase demand for domestic EDA, IP, packaging, substrate, test, thermal-management, memory-interface, networking, and semiconductor-equipment capabilities. It would also push China toward more co-optimized chip and system design, where domestic suppliers can be embedded earlier in architecture decisions. The caveat is that capital intensity and yield economics could be severe. A state-backed chip that is technically manufacturable may still be commercially inferior if wafer cost, defectivity, power consumption, or cycle time are materially worse than TSMC alternatives. In China’s strategic sectors, that disadvantage may be acceptable. In global commercial markets, it is a major constraint. For global semiconductor equipment outside lithography, the implications are mixed but potentially constructive. If DUV multi-patterning and non-EUV workarounds become more important in China, demand for deposition, etch, cleaning, metrology, inspection, process control, packaging, and test complexity should increase. However, export controls will determine which foreign vendors can participate. More complexity generally benefits tool intensity, but policy restrictions can transfer growth from U.S., Dutch, and Japanese incumbents to Chinese domestic alternatives over time. The long-term strategic issue is therefore not only technological substitution; it is addressable-market substitution. GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS The announcement is likely to strengthen both sides of the export-control debate. Export-control advocates will argue that Huawei’s progress proves China remains determined to reach the frontier and that further restrictions are needed on DUV servicing, components, metrology, EDA, HBM, advanced packaging, and AI cluster networking. Export-control skeptics will argue that restrictions accelerated Chinese self-sufficiency, created a protected domestic market for Huawei, and reduced Western vendor participation in China’s eventual catch-up. Both arguments have merit. The most probable outcome is continued tightening around the most strategic chokepoints, combined with continued Chinese investment in domestic substitutes. The policy risk for global investors is that semiconductor competition is becoming less cyclical and more strategic. Huawei’s announcement is not just a technical disclosure; it is a signal that China intends to develop a parallel AI compute stack under sanctions. That raises the probability of deeper fragmentation across chips, software frameworks, cloud infrastructure, telecom networks, EDA ecosystems, and standards. The immediate beneficiaries are domestic Chinese champions and non-China leading-edge suppliers serving U.S.-aligned AI ecosystems. The losers are companies dependent on unrestricted cross-border semiconductor trade between China and the West.

@investmentguru_May 24, 2026 · 1:40 PM

QUANTUM COMPUTING — The Full Sector Map. Every Play. One Post. PURE-PLAY QUANTUM $IONQ → Trapped-ion leader. Best-in-class qubit fidelity. Customers include Airbus, AstraZeneca, Hyundai. 256-qubit demo targeted 2026. The institutional-grade pure-play. $RGTI → Superconducting quantum systems. Highest beta in the sector. When quantum runs, $RGTI moves violently. Active momentum name right now. $QBTS → D-Wave Quantum. Annealing-based architecture. Most commercially de-risked pure-play — already generating optimization revenue with real enterprise clients. $QUBT → Photonic + room-temperature quantum. Q1 2026 revenue up from $39K → $3.7M YoY. Acquired Luminar Semiconductor for $110M. Vertically integrated photonics + quantum platform taking shape. Executing quietly. $INFQ → Neutral-atom quantum + sensing. One of the least-covered names in the sector. Neutral-atom architecture is gaining credibility as a scalable path to fault tolerance. Early but worth watching. $ARQQ → Quantum encryption and post-quantum cybersecurity. The national security angle. As quantum breaks classical encryption — this becomes critical infrastructure. $LAES → Quantum-resistant cybersecurity chips. Hardware-level protection against quantum decryption. Defense + enterprise security tailwind. BIG TECH $IBM → Most mature public quantum roadmap. 1000+ qubit processors live. Fault-tolerant systems targeted ~2029. Every enterprise quantum conversation starts here. $GOOGL → Willow chip demonstrated a landmark quantum error correction milestone. Google doesn’t lose science races. This is a long-term compounder with quantum upside baked in. $MSFT → Topological qubit breakthrough. Azure Quantum as the monetization layer. Full-stack quantum integrator play for the enterprise cloud era. $AMZN → AWS Braket quantum cloud. Positioned as the access layer for quantum-as-a-service. Already charging enterprises for quantum compute access today. $NVDA → Quantum-AI software stack integration. CUDA for quantum is the longer-term thesis. $NVDA doesn’t need to win quantum — it needs to be the layer everything runs on top of. $INTC → Silicon-spin qubit research. The most scalable long-term architecture thesis — leveraging existing CMOS manufacturing. Slow, but strategically important. $HON → Majority stake in Quantinuum — the most commercially advanced quantum hardware + software company currently private. When Quantinuum IPOs, $HON re-rates hard. $BAH → Booz Allen Hamilton. Deep in U.S. government quantum programs. Every federal quantum contract flows through firms like this. The picks-and-shovels of government quantum. SEMICONDUCTOR & INFRASTRUCTURE $GFS → GlobalFoundries. Quantum chip manufacturing capabilities. As quantum hardware scales, fab demand follows. $MU → Memory + quantum infrastructure angle. Quantum systems require extreme classical compute support — $MU sits in that stack. $AMD → HPC + quantum research ecosystem. High-performance classical compute is the co-processor to every near-term quantum system. $TSM → TSMC. Advanced fabrication is the foundation of every quantum chip roadmap. No quantum at scale without $TSM. $ASML → EUV lithography critical for next-generation quantum chip manufacturing. The irreplaceable chokepoint in advanced semiconductor production. QUANTUM NETWORKING / OPTICAL / SECURITY $CIEN → Optical networking backbone + quantum networking research. Quantum communication requires ultra-low-noise optical infrastructure — $CIEN is already there. $NOK → Nokia building quantum-safe telecom infrastructure. Nation-state cyber threats are accelerating the quantum-safe network upgrade cycle. $LITE → Photonics and optical infrastructure. Quantum and photonics are deeply intertwined. $AAOI → Optical connectivity. Riding both the AI and quantum photonics buildout simultaneously. $COHR → Photonics + laser systems. Lasers are fundamental to trapped-ion and photonic quantum architectures.

@investmentguru_May 24, 2026 · 10:16 AM

THE THEMATIC WATCHLIST — 2025 EDITION Every mega-trend. Every sector. One list.This is how I’m thinking about capital allocation across the next cycle 👇 AI → $GOOGL $PLTR $NVDA $COHR Chips → $TSM $ASML $AMD $MU $SNDK Space → $RKLB $ASTS $LUNR $RDW $PL Crypto → $COIN $BTC $ETH $SOL Energy → $GEV $CEG Drones → $ONDS Nuclear → $CCJ $OKLO $VST $SMR Defense → $KTOS $AVAV $AMTM Robotics → $SYM $TSLA $ISRG Batteries → $TE $EOSE $QS $FLNC Quantum → $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $INFQ Healthcare → $NVO $UNH $HIMS Data Centres → $IREN $CIFR $NBIS $CRWV Critical Minerals → $TMQ $UUUU $CCJ The next decade won’t be won by picking one sector. It’ll be won by understanding how they connect. AI needs chips. Chips need power. Power needs nuclear. Nuclear needs uranium. Uranium needs miners. It’s all one trade — just different layers. Know the map. Size accordingly. Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditMay 23, 2026 · 6:25 AM

@_juicebox99_ I don't see FOCI becoming a $50B+ company. They focus on one thing like optical components + FAU for $TSM / $NVDA, then do it at scale. So that would likely drives structural re-rating related to MC. Not quite the same as the US model of TAM expanding into $100B+ companies.

@investmentguru_May 23, 2026 · 12:48 AM

My Top 5 AI Semiconductor Watchlist The AI infrastructure buildout is still in full swing — and these 5 names are on my radar right now. $MU → HBM demand from AI training/inference is driving explosive EPS & revenue growth → Consolidating near key levels — watching for breakout confirmation → Memory is the backbone of AI. Don’t sleep on $MU $TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor → The world’s dominant foundry. Every AI chip runs through TSMC → Recently in a buy zone — still the highest-conviction foundry play long-term $AMD → Earnings acceleration continuing in AI compute & data center chips → Post-breakout — watching for a healthy pullback before adding → Increasingly relevant in custom silicon as hyperscalers diversify away from NVIDIA dependency $MRVL → Custom ASICs, silicon photonics, Ethernet switching — the full AI connectivity stack → Strong relative strength. AMD just disclosed a new equity stake in Marvell  — symbolic validation of MRVL’s role in AI infrastructure → Q1 earnings just reported — multiple analysts raising price targets $ALAB → The emerging leader in AI connectivity — PCIe, CXL, and optical interconnect solutions → 100%+ revenue growth metrics. Pure-play on the AI scaling bottleneck → Technical momentum intact. Market cap now ~$49B with $1B TTM revenue  — premium valuation, but the growth justifies it The AI capex supercycle isn’t slowing. These names sit at the heart of it. Not financial advice.

@thevalueistMay 22, 2026 · 4:14 PM

$INTC $TSM $GFS $AMRK Trump said today that the US will have 50% of global chip production by the time he leaves office. Does it actually happen? Who knows? But he will damn well try, and so will one of his minions if elected as the next US President. I don't believe you need to overthink this. My updated US Fab and Packaging tracker is below.

@investmentguru_May 22, 2026 · 1:27 AM

10 Most Exciting Stocks 1. $SNDK (SanDisk) The top-performing stock on Morningstar’s coverage list in 2026 — up a staggering ~464% YTD as flash memory demand for AI data centers explodes.  Pure AI storage play. 2. $NVDA (Nvidia) The undisputed AI infrastructure anchor. The SOX index has hit 15 intraday all-time highs in 2026, with Nvidia remaining the dominant force in AI accelerators as hyperscalers pour hundreds of billions into build-out.  3. $INTC (Intel) The biggest turnaround story of 2026. Intel’s ASIC revenue nearly doubled YoY in Q1, already hitting a $1B annual run rate, as server CPUs find a new home in AI inference workloads.  Up ~197% YTD. 4. $BE (Bloom Energy) Up nearly 198% YTD — the only non-tech name among 2026’s top performers — as fuel cell power solutions get pulled into the AI data center power demand story.  Fits squarely in your nuclear/clean energy layer. 5. $STX / $WDC (Seagate / Western Digital) Both up ~180% YTD on AI storage momentum, with analysts raising fair value estimates ~50% after a “stellar” quarter where demand is outstripping supply.  6. $TSM (TSMC) Controls 72% of the foundry market, making it indispensable to the AI build-out. Its competitive moat — years and massive capital to replicate — keeps it at the center of every major chip designer’s roadmap.  7. $MU (Micron) Surging on data center demand, particularly high-bandwidth memory for AI training and inference.  Already on your watchlist — the cycle is turning hard. 8. $RXT (Rackspace Technology) Up 165%+ in May alone on AI infrastructure partnership announcements  — one of the hottest neocloud/AI infra names this month. Small-cap, high-beta, fits your thesis. 9. $INOD (Innodata) Triple-digit gains in May on LLM data contracts  — riding the AI data pipeline wave. Pure-play AI data services at a fraction of the valuation of bigger names. 10. $AVGO (Broadcom) Supplying custom silicon (ASICs) and networking silicon to hyperscalers  — increasingly the “picks and shovels” winner as big tech builds proprietary AI chips. Theme of this market: AI infrastructure capex is the engine. Memory, power, custom silicon, and neoclouds are the high-beta expressions. Energy names like $BE are the sleeper layer. Not financial advice.

@thevalueistMay 21, 2026 · 5:20 PM

$INTC $TSM $GFS $AMKR Top of my US Fab and Packaging tracker. I believe this is a valid thesis as long as Trumper or one of his minions is in charge. https://t.co/RyybIp0w6L

@jerrycapMay 21, 2026 · 4:26 PM

@Hottie_Baker_ Haha ya I'm only joking $TSM obviously a moated AF semi monopoly. Just loving that $ASML customer list is broadening right now. The trend you identify is likely one that reverse somewhat during a bottleneck phase. One of my hypothesis is that many semi stocks come out of bottleneck worse off.

@jerrycapMay 21, 2026 · 3:39 PM

There really isn't a better company to own than $ASML. In comparison to the goated $ASML monopoly $TSM looks like it operates in perfect competition. $ASML "CEO Christophe Fouquet singles out Starlink as one of the most fascinating chip demand drivers he sees in the market today."

@dylan522pMay 19, 2026 · 6:45 PM

Breaking: Andrej Karpathy just filed his Q1 2026 13F. Here's everything you need to know about his recent 13F Top 10 positions: 1. VanEck Semiconductor ETF - $SMH - [Put] — $2.04B 2. Nvidia - $NVDA - [Put] — $1.57B 3. Oracle - $ORCL - [Put] — $1.07B 4. Broadcom - $AVGO - [Put] — $1.01B 5. Advanced Micro Devices - $AMD - [Put] — $969M 6. Bloom Energy - $BE — $879M 7. SanDisk - $SNDK — $724M 8. Micron - $MU - [Put] — $584M 9. CoreWeave - $CRWV — $556M 10. Taiwan Semiconductor - $TSM - [Put] — $535M New positions: • $SMH, $NVDA, $ORCL, $AVGO, $AMD, $MU, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC, $GLW — all puts • $MU [Call] — $422M • $TSM [Call] — $355M • $SNDK [Call] — $389M Summary: He kept his AI infrastructure longs and opened $8.45B in new puts against tech and semiconductor

@mrmikeinvestingMay 18, 2026 · 10:32 PM

The $NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang just revealed the full 5 layer stack the AI super cycle is built upon… These 5 layers include: 1. Energy ~ $CEG, $VST, $OKLO, $EOSE, $GEV 2. Chips & Computing ~ $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM, $MU, $ARM 3. Cloud & Data Centers ~ $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, $APLD, $CIFR 4. AI Models ~ $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $ORCL 5. Applications ~ $PLTR, $TSLA, $NOW, $SNOW, $CRM Without these companies there is no AI; which is exactly why these names will continue to see massive long term growth. Save this for later…

@aleabitoredditMay 18, 2026 · 5:25 AM

Next year… I’m expecting there to be many articles about FAU + component bottlenecks. Especially as the new CPO architecture led by $NVDA + $TSM starts to scale. Then a lot of these names like FOCI (~$2.8B MC) or Nextronics (~$246M MC) that I’m mentioning today will be in the center of it. Despite many of these “commodity” labels… (just look at transformers/NAND) And I’ll do a “Did you listen anon post” like $AXTI. We’ll see if this is right.

@mrmikeinvestingMay 17, 2026 · 5:27 PM

The $NVDA CEO literally just told you what to invest in for 2026… In 2025 he called out to buy Neocloud & Semiconductor names which have since rallied hard: $NBIS at $21 & is now up 1,020% $CRWV at $34 & is now up 230% $TSM at $180 & is now up 138% Now Jensen is calling for sustainable energy stocks: Bloom Energy ~ $BE Eos Energy ~ $EOSE Plug Power ~ $PLUG Fuelcell Energy ~ $FUEL Enlight Renewable ~ $ENLT Oklo Inc ~ $OKLO Iren ~ $IREN These names have the ability to 5-10x over the next few months. Don’t miss out…

@aleabitoredditMay 15, 2026 · 3:23 AM

HOW DOES $POET ($3.14B) HAVE A HIGHER VALUATION THAN FOCI (3363, $3.1B)??? FOCI IS LITERALLY THE BOTTLENECK FOR CPO VOLUME RAMP AND MAIN SUPPLIER FOR $TSM AND $NVDA. High conviction Foci outperforms once institutions find this name. Also, can Foci management please pursue NASDAQ ADR like $HIMX? Thank you.

@aleabitoredditMay 15, 2026 · 2:17 AM

FOCI (3363) is one of the most undervalued CPO players in the entire market right now at ~$3B. Their BOM is massive relative to MC and they're expected to capture a dominant market share for $NVDA / $TSM. You only start to see this show up 2027 / 2028, even though we're entering H2 2026 now (which is what I mean by frontrunning CPO supercycle).

@thevalueistMay 14, 2026 · 4:42 PM

$INTC $TSM $GFS $AMKR My US Fab and Packaging Tracker. I believe there is still some long juice to squeeze from these names. https://t.co/dABaMnEAQq

@thevalueistMay 14, 2026 · 3:07 PM

$INTC $TSM $GFS $AMKR SCOPE AND SCREEN The publicly identifiable US universe of companies with semiconductor wafer-fabrication, foundry, specialty microfabrication, or advanced-packaging facilities is substantially broader than the leading-edge logic names typically associated with CHIPS Act reshoring. The relevant set includes pure-play foundries, IDMs with captive fabs, specialty analog and power manufacturers, compound-semiconductor and RF operators, silicon photonics and InP/GaAs/GaN producers, MEMS foundries, defense-trusted microelectronics foundries, OSATs, wafer-level packaging providers, and advanced-substrate companies. The definition used here includes operational facilities, under-construction facilities, and publicly announced facilities with sufficiently specific disclosed US locations. It excludes design-only fabless companies, administrative-only locations, universities and national labs unless a corporate or nonprofit operating entity is clearly identified, conventional EMS assembly without semiconductor-grade packaging, and historical facilities that appear closed, sold, or no longer controlled by the named company. SIA’s own ecosystem map is explicitly not exhaustive, so the list below should be treated as the best publicly disclosed corporate universe as of May 14, 2026, rather than a guarantee of classified, proprietary, or otherwise undisclosed microelectronics capacity. The SIA investment tracker indicates that post-CHIPS Act US semiconductor commitments have exceeded $645.3B across more than 140 projects in 30 states, with federal awards announced for 35 companies and 52 projects, underscoring the breadth of the reshoring footprint but also the uneven maturity of announced versus operational capacity. (Semiconductor Industry Association) US SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION AND ADVANCED PACKAGING COMPANY UNIVERSE Intel Corporation — INTC — Intel has the broadest domestic front-end and back-end manufacturing footprint among US-headquartered logic manufacturers. Key US assets include leading-edge logic capacity in Chandler, Arizona, where Fab 52 and Fab 62 are central to Intel’s advanced-node expansion; planned leading-edge fabs in New Albany, Ohio, with timing that has shifted toward 2030-2031; major R&D and process-development operations in Hillsboro, Oregon, including high-NA EUV-related work; and Rio Rancho, New Mexico, which has been positioned as a major domestic advanced-packaging hub. Intel’s New Mexico site is particularly strategic because it supports high-volume advanced packaging, including EMIB and Foveros-related capabilities, making Intel one of the few US operators with both leading-edge wafer fabrication and advanced 2.5D/3D packaging infrastructure at domestic scale. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — TSM / https://t.co/ix3wtoPzdY — TSMC’s US footprint includes Phoenix, Arizona, where the company is building a multi-fab advanced logic campus. Public disclosures describe the first Arizona fab as 4nm, the second as 3nm/2nm-class with nanosheet technology, and later capacity as 2nm or more advanced. TSMC has also disclosed a broader Arizona investment plan that includes 6 wafer fabs, 2 advanced packaging facilities, and an R&D center, implying that the US site is evolving from a single front-end fab project into a broader domestic manufacturing cluster. Separately, TSMC controls the Camas, Washington, fab through TSMC Washington, historically a mature-node 200mm facility. Arizona’s strategic significance is unusually high because it introduces external foundry capacity for leading-edge logic on US soil, although volume ramp, cost structure, customer allocation, labor productivity, and tool-install timelines remain core execution variables. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Samsung Electronics — 005930.KS / SSNLF — Samsung’s US semiconductor manufacturing footprint includes Austin, Texas, and Taylor, Texas. The Taylor campus has been described as including 2 new leading-edge logic fabs for 4nm and 2nm-class production, an R&D fab, and advanced packaging capacity relevant to 3D HBM and 2.5D integration. The Austin facility is also being expanded or modernized for differentiated process technologies, including FD-SOI applications for aerospace, defense, automotive, and other specialty markets. Samsung’s US role is strategically important because it provides a second non-US-headquartered leading-edge foundry option in the US, but the domestic footprint remains dependent on the cadence of Taylor tool installation, customer commitments, and the company’s competitive position against TSMC at advanced nodes. (Semiconductor Industry Association) GlobalFoundries — GFS — GlobalFoundries operates major US foundry assets in Malta, New York, and Essex Junction/Burlington, Vermont. Malta is the company’s flagship 300mm US fab and is being expanded with additional capacity and a planned new fab to support RF, automotive, aerospace, defense, and mixed-signal demand. The Vermont site is a 200mm facility being revitalized for high-volume GaN-on-silicon and other specialty technologies. GFS is not a leading-edge logic competitor at 3nm/2nm, but it is highly relevant for differentiated mature and specialty nodes where supply assurance, RF content, power management, silicon photonics, and defense-trusted manufacturing are often more important than transistor-density leadership. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Texas Instruments — TXN — Texas Instruments has one of the most strategically significant domestic analog and embedded-processing manufacturing footprints. US assets include Richardson, Texas, where RFAB1 and RFAB2 are 300mm analog fabs; Sherman, Texas, where TI is building a large 300mm manufacturing campus with up to 4 connected fabs; Lehi, Utah, where LFAB1 and LFAB2 form a major 300mm analog and embedded-processing capacity base; and Dallas, Texas, where DMOS6 is part of the legacy analog manufacturing network. TI’s domestic 300mm analog strategy creates structural cost advantages versus 200mm analog peers and provides unusually high US-based wafer capacity for industrial, automotive, power-management, and embedded applications. (Texas Instruments) Micron Technology — MU — Micron’s US footprint includes Boise, Idaho, Manassas, Virginia, and the planned Clay, New York, megafab complex. Boise is intended to combine high-volume DRAM production with R&D, including a large cleanroom footprint. Manassas is a legacy DRAM and specialty memory fab being modernized for 1-alpha node output and continued automotive, industrial, and defense-related memory supply. Clay, New York, is planned as a multi-fab leading-edge DRAM campus. The investment case relevance is that Micron represents the core US-based DRAM reshoring vehicle, but the timeline for New York capacity, memory-cycle cyclicality, and HBM/AI memory capital allocation remain critical gating variables. (Semiconductor Industry Association) onsemi — ON — onsemi operates US wafer manufacturing assets in Gresham, Oregon; Mountain Top, Pennsylvania; East Fishkill, New York; and Hudson, New Hampshire. Gresham is a 200mm wafer fab supporting CMOS, BCD, EEPROM, and power technologies. Mountain Top is a 200mm wafer fab focused on MOSFET and related power processes. East Fishkill is strategically important as a 300mm fab for power discrete and image-sensor-related production and has been described as a DoD-trusted manufacturing site. Hudson is relevant to onsemi’s SiC supply chain. onsemi’s US asset base is materially weighted toward power semiconductors, analog, image sensors, and automotive/industrial end markets rather than leading-edge logic. (onsemi) Analog Devices — ADI — Analog Devices has US manufacturing facilities in Beaverton, Oregon; Camas, Washington; and Chelmsford, Massachusetts. The Oregon and Washington sites support analog wafer fabrication around 180nm/350nm-class process technologies, while Chelmsford includes RF, microwave, packaging, and test operations. ADI’s US footprint is strategically relevant because the company’s analog, mixed-signal, RF, and high-performance signal-chain products often have long life cycles, high qualification barriers, and defense/industrial importance, making domestic continuity more significant than cutting-edge node migration. (Semiconductor Industry Association) NXP Semiconductors — NXPI — NXP operates 4 US wafer fabs: 2 in Austin, Texas, and 2 in Chandler, Arizona. These facilities support MCUs, MPUs, power management, RF transceivers, RF amplifiers, sensors, and automotive/industrial products. Chandler has also included GaN-related RF manufacturing for 5G, aerospace, defense, and radar, although NXP disclosed plans in late 2025 to cease its radio-power product line and close the RF GaN fab by 2027. NXP therefore remains a major US mature-node and mixed-signal manufacturer, but its GaN footprint should be treated as a declining or transitional asset rather than a durable growth platform. (NXP) Microchip Technology — MCHP — Microchip’s active US fabrication assets include Gresham, Oregon, and Colorado Springs, Colorado. These facilities support microcontrollers, analog, mixed-signal, power-management, and specialty semiconductor products, with CHIPS-related support tied to increasing output at mature-node facilities. Microchip closed the Tempe, Arizona, fab in 2024, so the relevant US footprint should be framed around Oregon and Colorado rather than legacy Arizona wafer capacity. The strategic value is mature-node supply assurance for embedded control, aerospace, defense, automotive, and industrial applications. (Semiconductor Industry Association) SkyWater Technology — SKYT — SkyWater operates a trusted foundry in Bloomington, Minnesota, focused on 90nm/130nm-class mixed-signal, rad-hard, superconducting, carbon-nanotube, photonics, and defense-related process development and production. SkyWater also acquired Infineon’s Austin, Texas, 200mm Fab 25 in 2025, adding 130nm to 65nm capacity, high-voltage BCD infrastructure, and additional foundry scale. In advanced packaging, SkyWater Florida in Osceola County is positioned around fan-out wafer-level packaging, Deca M-Series technology, and heterogeneous integration. SkyWater is therefore one of the few small-cap public pure-play US foundry exposures, but it remains more specialty/defense/mature-node oriented than leading-edge logic oriented. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Diodes Incorporated — DIOD — Diodes owns the South Portland, Maine, 8-inch wafer fab acquired from onsemi in 2022. The facility includes a large cleanroom footprint and supports analog, power, CMOS, BCDMOS, BiCMOS, and bipolar process technologies across roughly 0.18µm to 1.5µm nodes. The asset fits Diodes’ model as a discrete, analog, and mixed-signal manufacturer with US mature-node capacity serving automotive, industrial, and broad-based electronics demand. (Diodes Incorporated) LA Semiconductor — Private/no direct ticker — LA Semiconductor owns the Pocatello, Idaho, 200mm fab acquired from onsemi. The site includes a 57,000-square-foot cleanroom and process technologies from roughly 0.18µm to 1.5µm, with custom process, prototype, assembly, probe, and test capabilities. The facility has faced financial and operating stress, including 2026 layoff disclosures and outside support efforts, so the asset should be viewed as strategically relevant but commercially uncertain. (https://t.co/A6xj9meoT8) Tower Semiconductor — TSEM — Tower has US specialty foundry operations in Newport Beach, California, and San Antonio, Texas. Newport Beach supports silicon photonics, analog/mixed-signal, and specialty process technologies spanning approximately 0.50µm to 0.13µm. The US sites are part of Tower’s broader specialty-foundry portfolio, which is focused on analog, RF, power management, imaging, and silicon photonics rather than leading-edge digital logic. (SEC) Alpha and Omega Semiconductor — AOSL — Alpha and Omega Semiconductor controls Jireh Semiconductor, its wholly owned in-house wafer fab in Hillsboro, Oregon. The facility supports AOS’s power semiconductor manufacturing model, particularly MOSFET and power-management products. The US fab is relevant because AOS is not solely outsourced to Asian foundries and maintains domestic wafer capability for part of its power-device portfolio. (Alpha & Omega Semiconductor) X-FAB Silicon Foundries — https://t.co/4IKaXKAWop — X-FAB operates a Lubbock, Texas, SiC and specialty semiconductor foundry. The facility is described as the only high-volume SiC foundry in the US and supports power semiconductor applications, including automotive and industrial customers. X-FAB also has wafer-level packaging and 3D-integration capabilities within its broader process portfolio. The company is a meaningful US specialty foundry exposure, particularly for SiC, analog, MEMS, and mixed-signal applications. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Polar Semiconductor — Private/no direct ticker — Polar operates a Bloomington, Minnesota, fab focused on sensor and power semiconductor manufacturing. The facility is being expanded with CHIPS support to double US production and transform Polar into a majority US-owned commercial foundry. UMC has also disclosed a memorandum of understanding with Polar to explore 8-inch chip production in the US using Polar’s expanded Minnesota fab. Polar is strategically relevant as a mature-node power and sensor foundry asset but remains less liquid and less transparent than public foundry peers. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Everspin Technologies — MRAM — Everspin operates an integrated magnetic fab line in Chandler, Arizona, co-located with NXP. The facility supports MRAM and TMR sensor wafer manufacturing across nodes including 180nm and 130nm, with additional technology partnerships used for higher-volume MRAM nodes. Everspin’s US fab is highly specialized rather than broad-based, but it is one of the clearest domestic nonvolatile memory manufacturing assets outside conventional DRAM and NAND. (https://t.co/Z8RxTUZ9Nk) HP Inc. — HPQ — HP’s Corvallis, Oregon, site includes specialty mature-node lab-to-fab and commercial manufacturing capabilities tied to microfluidics, printhead, and related semiconductor-derived devices. This is not a merchant foundry comparable to GFS, Tower, or SkyWater; however, it represents domestic semiconductor microfabrication and commercial device manufacturing capacity with process know-how in thin films, MEMS-like structures, and high-volume precision fabrication. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Renesas Electronics — 6723.T / RNECY — Renesas has a Palm Bay, Florida, wafer fabrication, assembly, and test operation focused on analog, mixed-signal, high-reliability, and radiation-hardened semiconductor products. The facility is associated with MIL-PRF-38535-qualified manufacturing and wafer fabrication for high-reliability applications. Renesas also owns Transphorm in Goleta, California, following its 2024 acquisition, adding US GaN power semiconductor R&D and related capability, although the Palm Bay facility is the clearer disclosed US wafer-fab asset. (Renesas Electronics) Wolfspeed — WOLF — Wolfspeed’s US footprint includes Siler City, North Carolina, and Marcy, New York. Siler City is focused on SiC wafer manufacturing and has been described as the largest US SiC wafer manufacturing site and a high-volume 200mm SiC wafer facility. Marcy is an automated 200mm SiC power device fab. Wolfspeed exited Chapter 11 in 2025 with a reorganized equity structure, so the operating assets remain strategically important, but the capital structure reset materially changed legacy equity economics. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Robert Bosch GmbH — Private/no direct ticker — Bosch owns the Roseville, California, 200mm SiC fab acquired through the TSI Semiconductors transaction. The site is being converted for SiC front-end and back-end processing, with first chips expected in 2026. Bosch’s US SiC facility is strategically relevant for automotive electrification, industrial power electronics, and domestic SiC device supply, but Bosch remains privately held and not directly investable through public equity. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Coherent Corp. — COHR — Coherent has US compound-semiconductor assets in Sherman, Texas, and Easton, Pennsylvania. Sherman supports 150mm InP optoelectronics manufacturing, including a large facility positioned around InP wafer production for optical communications and related applications. Easton supports SiC substrates, epitaxy, back-end processing, and testing. Coherent’s US footprint is strategically tied to optical interconnects, datacenter infrastructure, power electronics, and compound-semiconductor materials. (Semiconductor Industry Association) MACOM Technology Solutions — MTSI — MACOM operates US compound-semiconductor manufacturing in Lowell, Massachusetts, and Morrisville, North Carolina. These facilities support GaN and GaAs process technologies, including 100mm and 150mm capability, and are relevant to RF, microwave, millimeter-wave, defense, aerospace, and high-frequency communications applications. MACOM is one of the more direct public-market exposures to US-based RF compound-semiconductor manufacturing. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Qorvo — QRVO — Qorvo operates US wafer fabs in North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas, and has assembly/test operations in Texas. Its Richardson, Texas, site is a DoD Category 1A Trusted Source foundry spanning design, wafer fabrication, post-processing, packaging, assembly, and testing, with GaN and GaAs foundry processes. Qorvo’s domestic footprint is particularly important for RF front-end, defense radar, communications, and high-performance RF applications, although a substantial portion of broader Qorvo manufacturing and packaging also remains global. (Qorvo, Inc.) Skyworks Solutions — SWKS — Skyworks has US semiconductor wafer fabrication in Newbury Park, California, and Woburn, Massachusetts. These sites are associated with RF, analog, and mixed-signal production, while the company’s broader SAW/TC-SAW/BAW and assembly/test footprint includes international manufacturing. The US fabs are relevant to RF front-end modules, wireless infrastructure, aerospace/defense adjacency, and high-performance analog content. (Skyworks Solutions, Inc.) Broadcom — AVGO — Broadcom owns US manufacturing facilities in Fort Collins, Colorado, and Breinigsville, Pennsylvania. Fort Collins is strategically associated with FBAR filter production, while Breinigsville is tied to InP-based wafers for fiber optics. Broadcom’s US semiconductor manufacturing is not a broad foundry business, but it is highly relevant for vertically integrated RF filters and optical components, both of which are critical for wireless and datacenter infrastructure. (Broadcom Inc.) Nokia / Infinera — NOK / NOKIA.HE — Nokia acquired Infinera in 2025, making Infinera’s US photonic integrated circuit assets part of Nokia. The relevant US facilities include San Jose, California, where InP PIC fabrication/foundry capability includes a cleanroom footprint, and Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, where advanced test and packaging for InP PICs includes 2.5D, 3D, and co-packaged optics-related work. The asset set is strategically important to optical transport, datacenter interconnect, coherent optics, and co-packaged optics roadmaps. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Lumentum Holdings — LITE — Lumentum has announced a Greensboro, North Carolina, facility for advanced InP-based optical devices serving AI datacenter demand. The project includes a 6-inch InP line and is expected to ramp later in the decade, with volume ramp discussed for 2028. Lumentum’s US manufacturing relevance is tied to high-speed optical transceivers, datacenter photonics, and laser components rather than traditional silicon logic. (Lumentum Investor Relations) Applied Optoelectronics — AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics has expanded its Houston-area manufacturing footprint, including facilities around Sugar Land, Texas, for optical components, lasers, semiconductor products, and transceivers. The company is vertically integrated in optical communications components, but public disclosures do not describe the US footprint as a merchant wafer foundry. The company should therefore be classified as a US optical-semiconductor manufacturing and assembly operator rather than a conventional silicon fab or OSAT. (Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.) Rocket Lab USA / SolAero — RKLB — Rocket Lab’s SolAero business operates in Albuquerque, New Mexico, with production of space-grade solar cells and radiation-resistant compound semiconductor products. The CHIPS-supported expansion is intended to increase production capacity for satellite and space applications. This is a specialty compound-semiconductor manufacturing asset serving aerospace and defense end markets, not a general-purpose wafer foundry. (Semiconductor Industry Association) Akash Systems — Private/no direct ticker — Akash Systems is developing a West Oakland, California, fab for diamond-cooled semiconductor substrates, devices, and systems. Public CHIPS-related disclosures describe a new cleanroom and manufacturing footprint focused on Diamond Cooling technology. The facility is relevant to thermal management constraints in high-power RF, satellite, and AI infrastructure, but it remains an emerging private-company manufacturing asset rather than an established high-volume foundry. (Semiconductor Industry Association) SemiQ — Private/no direct ticker — SemiQ operates in Lake Forest, California, with cleanroom, wafer probe, wafer saw, epitaxy, wafer metrology, and SiC product capabilities. The company manufactures SiC diodes and MOSFETs and maintains custom epi-related capabilities. SemiQ is a private US SiC device and manufacturing participant, with strategic relevance to power electronics, although it is much smaller than Wolfspeed, Bosch, Coherent, or onsemi. (https://t.co/u391RxgxmV) Navitas Semiconductor — NVTS — Navitas has announced an initial investment in a 3-reactor SiC epitaxy growth facility at its Torrance, California, headquarters and acquired GeneSiC as part of its expansion into SiC. Navitas remains primarily fabless for GaN and SiC device production, using external manufacturing partners such as TSMC and X-FAB, so its US footprint should be characterized as SiC epitaxy/R&D and related manufacturing capability rather than a full disclosed domestic wafer fab. (Navitas Semiconductor)

@aleabitoredditMay 14, 2026 · 1:35 AM

Honestly I’m expecting FOCI (3363) to blow away projections over next two years. It’s a pretty high conviction position for me medium term at this level. Since they’re expected to be the leading supplier to $NVDA and $TSM and get frequently cited as a bottleneck for that $91B+ 2028 CPO TAM (GS). Insane how it’s $3B MC as a critical CPO bottleneck required for scale, while LightWave Logic literally has around the same valuation at $2.7B in development stage.

@aleabitoredditMay 13, 2026 · 12:56 AM

FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure. 1. $TSM COUPE advanced packaging director hinted that FAU supplies by FOCI be a pretty big bottleneck for mass production. 2. Leading supplier for $NVDA and $TSM expected with up to 50% market share from Morgan Stanley note. 3. $HIMX signaled record demand and that Foci should scale up capacity (meaning high medium term demand visibility) 4. FAU and optical components make a large % of CPO related BOM from Goldman Sachs research note. 5. Overarching CPO tam basically goes from near 0 to $91B in the next two years from the GS note. I’m very confident about this theme directionally over time (NFA), despite any recent market volatility. Risks include getting designed out for later generations. But over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated compared to other names but might need to be actively monitored. Just throwing out ideas over long positions I hold, for more purer play CPO exposure.

@investmentguru_May 12, 2026 · 9:43 AM

The “Inflation Era” of AI Compute is Breaking Out Across the Board Every layer of the AI infrastructure stack is seeing demand explosion — and the winners aren’t just $NVDA. Here’s the full supply chain map 👇 ⚙️ FOUNDATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE → PCB: $TTM, $JBL → CCL: $ROG → MLCC: $VSH → Liquid Cooling & Thermal: $VRT 🔴 CORE COMPUTE & MEMORY AI Silicon: → $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $INTC Memory / Storage: → $MU $SNDK $WDC $STX $INTC Power Management / Analog: → $TXN $ADI $NXPI $STM $MPWR $VICR Wafer Foundry: → $TSM $GFS $UMC Advanced Packaging / OSAT: → $TSM $ASX $AMKR 🔵 OPTICAL COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK Optical Components: → $LITE $COHR $AAOI Optical Fiber & Cable: → $GLW Silicon Photonics Foundry: → $TSEM $GFS INP: → $AXTI Optical DSP / Interconnect Silicon: → $MRVL $FN ☁️ CLOUD & AI PLATFORMS → $AMZN $GOOG $BABA $BIDU The AI compute supercycle isn’t one stock — it’s an entire ecosystem repricing in real time. Not financial advice. DYOR.

@aleabitoredditMay 12, 2026 · 5:58 AM

@mrng2019 Why are we comparing $HIMS testosterone pills with the $TSM FAU supplier for COUPE.

@investmentguru_May 12, 2026 · 2:04 AM

ANTHROPIC REVENUE TRAJECTORY IS BREAKING MATH → Jan 2025: $1B ARR → Dec 2025: $9B ARR → Apr 2026: $30B ARR That’s a 30x in 15 months. One analyst is now projecting $100B by end of 2026, $340B in 2027, and $2T+ by 2030. Compare that to Google’s current revenue run-rate. The forecast says Anthropic could surpass it by mid-2028. Is it too aggressive? Probably. But the direction of travel is real. The bigger signal here isn’t Anthropic specifically — it’s what this means for the compute stack. If AI model companies are monetizing this fast, demand for chips, memory, networking, power, and cooling is going to be far larger than the market priced in. The infrastructure thesis just got stronger. Before a potential Anthropic IPO, here’s where you can get exposure today: → $AMZN — lead cloud partner + investor → $GOOG — major backer + TPU development partner → $NVDA / $AMD / $AVGO — AI chip layer → $TSM — foundry capacity → $MU — HBM + DRAM demand surge → $MRVL / $FN / $LITE / $COHR — optical networking → $VRT / $MPWR — power & cooling Pre-IPO fund exposure: → $VCX — Anthropic ~20.7% of portfolio → $DXYZ — meaningful Anthropic position → $AGIX — one of the few ETFs with direct private AI exposure → $BSTZ — private market tech exposure including Anthropic The AI model race winner is still unknown. The infrastructure winners are less uncertain. Not financial advice.

@unusual_whalesMay 10, 2026 · 12:07 AM

Holy. Look at this. These Micron, $MU, 400 calls are up from $18.65 to $328. These $TSM 370 calls from $14.15 to $52.5. Unusual. https://t.co/8TkhSEkUpB

@mrmikeinvestingMay 9, 2026 · 11:31 PM

The $NVDA CEO has been literally telling you what to buy… In 2025 Jensen called out: $NBIS at $21 & is now up 840% $APLD at $3 & is now up 1,400% $TSM at $180 & is now up 135% $MU at $86 & is now up 770% Jensen is now calling for these 3 companies to squeeze in 2026: $NOW at $90 $CRWV at $114 $IREN at $60 These names are most likely the next 10x setups. Don’t miss out…

@aleabitoredditMay 9, 2026 · 8:07 PM

Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.

@unusual_whalesMay 9, 2026 · 1:45 AM

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@jasonl_capitalMay 6, 2026 · 1:07 PM

2. $TSM - TSMC (Foundry) Every advanced chip on earth runs through their fabs. Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm - all dependent on one company. Q1 profit up 58% to a record. Revenue grew 35% to $35B. High-performance computing is now 61% of sales. Spending $52-56B in capex this year building capacity competitors are a decade behind replicating. The AI chip boom literally cannot happen without TSMC.

@jasonl_capitalMay 5, 2026 · 12:49 PM

4. $TSM - TSMC Every advanced chip on earth runs through their fabs. Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm - all dependent on one company. Q1 profit up 58% to a record. Revenue grew 35% to $35B. High-performance computing is now 61% of sales. They're spending $52-56B in capex this year building capacity that competitors are a decade behind replicating. The AI chip boom literally cannot happen without TSMC.

@aleabitoredditMay 5, 2026 · 1:23 AM

Pretty sure institutions like GS missed Shunsin (6451) at $1.65B for CPO packaging/test/assembly. Which is why I'm very bullish on it as a completely backdoored, hidden + major beneficiary of $NVDA CPO ramp. Foxconn is a major supply chain partner among $TSM and $ASX. But… Shunsin is Foxconn's optical arm, and captures their captive optical and advanced packaging volume. So they're not explicitly listed anywhere or have direct contracts with Nvidia (but Foxconn does) But likely soaks up Nvidia CPO + other volumes through Foxconn vertical integration.

@mrmikeinvestingMay 4, 2026 · 11:05 PM

The White House alongside Congress have quiet literally been telling you what sectors to buy: Rare Earths ~ $USAR, $MP, $UUUU Neo-cloud ~ $NBIS, $CRWV, $IREN Memory ~ $MU, $SNDK Space ~ $RKLB, $PL, $ASTS Chips ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $TSM Don’t miss these life changing setups… https://t.co/3CCxPjWNuo

@aleabitoredditMay 4, 2026 · 1:04 AM

I did say MSSCORP likely has a functional monopoly for CPO over inspection. Not really a way around it and it's critical for $NVDA / $TSM yields as CPO ramps. They did say "the company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" Should have been the biggest indicator.

@mrmikeinvestingMay 3, 2026 · 9:48 PM

The best way to get rich in 2026 is by simply owning the entire AI ecosystem… Cloud Infrastructure ~ $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT NeoCloud ~ $CRWV, $NBIS, $CIFR, $IREN Security ~ $CRWD Compute ~ $NVDA, $AMD, $MU, $ASML, $AVGO, $TSM Power & Cooling ~ $CEG, $BE, $VRT Data ~ $MDB, $ORCL Memory ~ $SNDK, $MU, $STX You’ll look back on this post later this year, & will be thankful you own these names. Save this for later…

@aleabitoredditMay 3, 2026 · 7:11 AM

@Leon8995385220 $SIVE likely locked up allocation agreements with Win Semi to scale. And works with $GFS. Which is why I'm long on them both, easy to scale as fabless, kinda like $NVDA + $TSM.

@investmentguru_May 2, 2026 · 6:29 PM

The Full Optical AI Industry Chain: 1. IC Design & Manufacturing (Where the brains are built) ASIC / xPU / Photonic ICs → $NVDA $MRVL $AVGO $LITE $COHR $INTC $AMD $CSCO Wafer Foundries → $TSM $TSEM $GFS $UMC 2. Materials (The Overlooked Layer) (The foundation of photonics) Indium Phosphide → $AXTI $IQE Gallium Arsenide → $AXTI $MTSI This layer is underfollowed and could see strong upside as optical demand expands. 3. Optical Components (The data highways) VCSEL / EML Lasers → $LITE $COHR $AVGO $AAOI Optical Module Assembly → $FN $COHR $LITE $MRVL $CSCO Fiber / WDM / Optical Connectivity → $CIEN $GLW $LITE MPO Connectors → $GLW $APH Optical Fiber → $GLW 4. Packaging & Testing (The hidden backbone) Packaging → $ASX $AMKR $FN $JBL Packaging Equipment → $KLIC Testing → $TER $KEYS $FORM $AEHR

@jasonl_capitalMay 1, 2026 · 11:48 AM

4. $TSM - TSMC (Packaging / CPO) TSMC's COUPE platform brings optics directly into the chip package - co-packaged optics. Uses SoIC-X chip stacking to put an electrical die on top of a photonic die. First-gen targets 1.6 Tbps, double what copper can do. NVIDIA's Spectrum-X and Quantum-X switching platforms are both built on COUPE. Mass production started in 2026.

@aleabitoredditMay 1, 2026 · 6:02 AM

As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 8:27 AM

From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers? Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers. Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program. And Lightmatter does require a light source... $SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together? End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others. I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative. But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.

@investmentguru_Apr 30, 2026 · 2:28 AM

The full CPU stack: understands each layer, you can find many play Architecture - $ARM Design- $AMD $INTC $QCOM Foundry- $TSM $GFS Memory- $MU Storage- $SIMO Connectivity- $ALAB $TMBS Custom silicon- $AVGO $MRVL Future Architecture (RISC-V via Tenstorrent, $CAN)

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 1:56 AM

@latent_value7 Yeah... $NVDA / $TSM and others all using MSSCorps has pretty big upside imo.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 1:00 AM

I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research).
 For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.

@aleabitoredditApr 29, 2026 · 8:52 PM

I've monitored the situation for you. TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM). From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings: Upstream semi supply chains go brrr. $META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised. -> Higher component prices (price hikes) -> Aggressive AI infra spending -> Custom Model Training $MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources. Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year. So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them. Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)

@mrmikeinvestingApr 28, 2026 · 12:39 AM

The White House is quite literally telling you to buy these 5 sectors… Rare Earths ~ $USAR, $MP, $CEG Space ~ $RKLB, $PL, $ASTS, $LUNR Chips ~ $AMZN, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM AI Infrastructure ~ $CRWV, $NBIS, $ADUR, $CIFR Defense ~ $ONDS, $PLTR These names will squeeze over the next 8 months & make many rich. Don’t miss out…

@investmentguru_Apr 27, 2026 · 10:48 AM

The full CPU stack: check for details in post Architecture - $ARM Design- $AMD $INTC $QCOM Foundry- $TSM $GFS Memory- $MU Storage- $SIMO Connectivity- $ALAB $TMBS Custom silicon- $AVGO $MRVL Future Architecture (RISC-V via Tenstorrent, $CAN)

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:40 AM

Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory. But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently. $TSM also signaled record capex across the board. But just like $LPK in glass core substrates... There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan. That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles. Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.

@investmentguru_Apr 27, 2026 · 12:48 AM

Overnight movers in tech are flashing risk-on. Semis are leading the tape with $INTC, $TSM, $QCOM all up 2%+ and $AMD pushing nearly 2% in overnight trading. Momentum is spreading beyond the mega caps: ⚡ $POET +11% — optical/AI infrastructure names heating up 📡 $NOK +2% — telecom + network infrastructure catching bids ☢️ $XE +2% — nuclear power stays hot after a massive +26% IPO debut Friday

@aleabitoredditApr 26, 2026 · 5:09 PM

TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.

@investmentguru_Apr 26, 2026 · 12:11 PM

The full CPU stack: Architecture - $ARM Design- $AMD $INTC $QCOM Foundry- $TSM $GFS Memory- $MU Storage- $SIMO Connectivity- $ALAB $TMBS Custom silicon- $AVGO $MRVL Future Architecture (RISC-V via Tenstorrent, $CAN)

@investmentguru_Apr 26, 2026 · 11:35 AM

CPU ecosystem map across every tier: TIER 1 — Pure CPU Giants $INTC — Intel. The turnaround is real. Q1 2026: revenue $13.58B, EPS $0.29 crushed $0.01 consensus. Data Center revenue +22% YoY. Stock surged nearly 25% in a single session. CEO Lip-Bu Tan declared: “The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user — from foundational models to inference to agentic.”  Up 80%+ YTD before that gap. $AMD — EPYC CPU order book nearly sold out for 2026. Q4 2025 revenue $10.27B, up 34% YoY, with record Data Center revenue of $5.38B.  MI400 platform coming. 1-year return: +269%. The share-gainer. $ARM — The toll road of CPUs. Used in 99% of the world’s smartphone CPU cores.  In 2026, ARM announced the launch of its own CPU products on top of its existing royalty business.  Up +87% YTD before Intel’s earnings day gap. Capital-light, royalty compounder. TIER 2 — CPU-ADJACENT INFRASTRUCTURE $QCOM — Snapdragon X Elite attacking PC CPU market with ARM-based Oryon cores. Edge AI CPU momentum building across enterprise. Automotive + IoT CPU exposure via Snapdragon Cockpit Elite. $MRVL — Custom XPU + CPU silicon. 18+ socket wins. $75B design pipeline. Data center CPU-adjacent workloads = direct tailwind. $AVGO — Custom ASICs + CPU workload accelerators for hyperscalers. AI business grew 106% YoY to $8.4B last quarter. Projects $100B+ business by 2027.  The ASIC answer to x86. $TSM — Makes every CPU on the planet. TSMC fabs AMD EPYC, Apple silicon, Qualcomm Snapdragon. ~70% foundry market share. Trading 14% below Morningstar fair value of $428.  You can’t build a CPU without TSMC. TIER 3 — CPU ENABLERS & PICKS/SHOVELS $MU — Every CPU needs memory. Micron can only fulfill half-to-two-thirds of current medium-term demand. Revenue was $13.6B two quarters ago, $23.9B last quarter, guiding $33.5B next quarter.  Memory is the bottleneck. $SIMO — SSD controllers feeding CPU storage layers in AI data centers. 46% YoY revenue growth. PCIe Gen5 controllers showcased at NVIDIA GTC 2026. The quiet CPU enabler. $ALAB — PCIe + CXL connectivity silicon — the bus that CPUs talk to everything else on. 75%+ gross margins. Zero debt. Every AI CPU cluster needs Astera Labs. $RMBS — Rambus. Memory interface IP. LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 server memory chipset for AI CPUs. ~80% gross margins. Capital-light IP model — gets paid every time a CPU ships with their interface. $GFS — GlobalFoundries. Specialty foundry for RF, automotive, aerospace, and IoT CPUs. The mature-node CPU manufacturer for defense + industrial. TIER 4 — RISC-V REVOLUTION (THE FUTURE CPU WAR) Tenstorrent (private — Jim Keller’s company) — First-gen RISC-V CPU “Ascalon” delivers 10-20 SPECint2006/GHz, competing directly with ARM’s Neoverse V2.  IP licensees already include LG and Hyundai.  Backed by Hyundai, Kia, Samsung. Watch for IPO. $CAN — Canaan Creative. Launched the world’s first commercial edge AI chip based on RISC-V.  Public, listed, speculative. RISC-V + AI edge play in one ticker. SiFive (private) — The ARM of RISC-V. Intel tried to acquire for $2B. CPU IP licensing model. IPO candidate to watch. TIER 5 — HYPERSCALER CUSTOM CPUs (Own The CPU, Own The Cloud) $AMZN — Graviton ARM-based CPUs + Trainium AI chips. Trainium 2 and 3 at max capacity. Nearly all Gen 4 capacity already pre-sold 18 months out.  AWS custom CPU = lowest cloud compute cost. $GOOGL — TPU + custom ARM CPU for Google Cloud. Fastest-growing cloud CPU fleet. $MSFT — Azure custom ARM silicon + Cobalt CPU. AI inference at edge + cloud. Azure fastest-growing hyperscaler by AI workload. The GPU era is maturing. The CPU supercycle is just loading up. Every layer of this stack is a potential winner. Not financial advice.

@mrmikeinvestingApr 26, 2026 · 2:22 AM

The $NVDA CEO quite literally has been telling you what to buy… In 2025 Jenson called: $NBIS at $21 & is now up 680% $APLD at $3 & is now up 1,200% $TSM at $180 & is now up 130% Jensen is now calling for these 3 companies to be next to squeeze in 2026: $NOW at $90 $CRWV at $110 $PLTR at $140 These names are going to make many generational wealth. Don’t miss out…

@aleabitoredditApr 25, 2026 · 9:02 PM

@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.

@investmentguru_Apr 24, 2026 · 10:44 AM

Semiconductors are on fire in premarket — this is what momentum expansion looks like. $INTC leading with a massive +30% move, signaling aggressive buying and possible short squeeze. $AMD up 10%+, continuing to show leadership in AI and data center space. $ARM gaining 8%+, strength across chip design names. $MRVL and $TSM both up ~4%, confirming broad sector participation. This is not just a bounce — this is sector-wide momentum driven by AI demand and FOMO chasing. When leaders and laggards move together, institutions are buying the whole space. Stay alert — volatility will be high, but this is where big trends start forming.

@aleabitoredditApr 24, 2026 · 3:38 AM

Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?

@aleabitoredditApr 23, 2026 · 5:27 AM

@northyvt I feel like $TSM and OSAT/advanced packaging partners are the main beneficiaries apart from $AMD? Maybe like $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML and others too? $INTC also have their own fabs that they bought back recently so it's happy.

@aleabitoredditApr 23, 2026 · 5:15 AM

CPU "serious supply shortage" It's still funny to see CPUs become more like memory day-by-day with the price hikes like $SNDK. "Server CPUs have jumped between 10% and 20% since March" with $INTC and $AMD planning to further price hikes Q3. "CPU supply is likely to remain tight through 2026 and 2027" with "server CPU shortages reaching up to six months for Intel and 8-12 weeks for AMD" $TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage. "The main reason behind the fear is the simultaneous outbreak of CPU and AI ASIC demand; inventory currently includes Intel, AMD mainstream generation CPU, and $NVDA's upcoming Vera CPU, all using 3nm process Looks like we've come full circle?

@aleabitoredditApr 23, 2026 · 12:29 AM

There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.

@aleabitoredditApr 22, 2026 · 7:25 PM

@PeterSikachev It's like giving grants to Korea Zinc to build refineries in the US or $TSM to build foundries in the US. $HPS.A is largest dry transformers -> switchgear in north america, and they have critical production facilities in US too like Wisconsin/California. I think it's basically "Anything but China"

@mrmikeinvestingApr 22, 2026 · 11:25 AM

Here’s a truth many aren’t ready to hear… Owning index funds will not make you rich. They’ll let you capitalize on comfortable, but limited gains. Since 2022 $NVDA +1580% $META +650% $TSM +590% $AMD +430% Meanwhile the S&P 500 gained just +50% over the same time. Individual names is where the bulk of money is made. Save this, & thank me later…

@jerrycapApr 21, 2026 · 2:18 AM

"What was more encouraging, however, is that I thought there was a marked shift in the way that $TSM executives talked about Al, particularly this bit from CEO C.C. Wei's prepared remarks" https://t.co/YVzDod1gti

@thevalueistApr 20, 2026 · 1:25 PM

Foundry YTD and 1y. GFS the laggard - a valid reason or an opportunity to catch up? My bet is on the latter. $TSEM $INTC $GFS $TSM https://t.co/fFFwWLUG0d

@aleabitoredditApr 19, 2026 · 11:25 PM

@Jornka329996 Nah, full steam ahead. Two nations in US/China are racing to see who can reach the singularity first in recursive self-improvement. $TSM earnings indicated massive growth + little disruption to supply chains (eg. helium). $ASML indicated record capex spending. OpenAI raised $120B+ so contagion fears are gone for another year and half. Models like Mythos keep improving at just astounding rates, and everyone from China to US are soaking up all the GPUs to train new models + catch up. Everyone is soaking up materials and little used parts in supply chains now have massive growth vectors from AI.

@aleabitoredditApr 19, 2026 · 11:11 PM

Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.

@mrmikeinvestingApr 19, 2026 · 6:34 PM

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just revealed the “five-layer” model of what AI is dependent upon… These 5 layers include: 1. Energy ~ $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $OKLO 2. Chips ~ $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM, $AVGO 3. Cloud Infrastructure ~ $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $CRWV 4. Models ~ $META, $ORCL 5. Applications ~ $PLTR, $TSLA All these names will see generational upside in 2026 as AI continues to expand rapidly. Save this for later…

@aleabitoredditApr 18, 2026 · 6:10 PM

Just some TLDRs to save you time: 1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr. 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad. 3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips. 4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr. 5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy. 6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this. 7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later. 8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs" I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).

@investmentguru_Apr 16, 2026 · 10:27 AM

$TSM | TSMC Q1’26 — AI Demand Driving Another Blowout Quarter Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company just delivered a monster quarter, and the message is clear: AI demand is still accelerating. 🔹 Revenue: $35.9B (beat) — +40.6% YoY 🔹 Net Profit: $18.1B (beat) — +58.3% YoY 🔹 Gross Margin: 66.2% — massive strength 🔹 EPS: $3.49 per ADR Margins tell the real story Operating margin at 58.1% and net margin above 50% — elite-level profitability driven by pricing power and advanced node dominance. AI is the engine • HPC now 61% of revenue (+20% QoQ) • Advanced nodes (7nm and below) = 74% of wafer revenue • 3nm + 5nm alone = 61% mix Mixed end markets • Smartphones: -11% QoQ (still weak) • Auto: slight softness • IoT: steady growth Geographic concentration • North America = 76% of revenue → AI hyperscaler demand remains the key driver CapEx still elevated • $11.1B this quarter → TSM doubling down on future capacity $TSM isn’t just benefiting from AI — it’s the backbone of the entire AI supply chain. With pricing power, leading-edge nodes, and surging HPC demand, this quarter reinforces one thing: As long as AI demand stays hot, TSMC prints.

@thevalueistApr 16, 2026 · 6:25 AM

$TSM TSMC Q1 2026 — Guidance summary This event is currently live. Here is a full breakdown of the guidance provided. Q2 2026 guidance •Revenue: $39.0–$40.2 billion (USD), representing approximately +10% sequentially and +32% year-over-year at the midpoint •Gross margin: 65.5%–67.5% (midpoint ~66.5%, up ~30 bps sequentially) •Operating margin: 56.5%–58.5% •Tax rate (Q2): ~20%, elevated due to the accrual of tax on undistributed retained earnings •Exchange rate assumption: 1 USD = 31.7 TWD Full-year 2026 guidance •Revenue growth: Now expected to grow above 30% in USD terms •Full-year tax rate: 17–18% •CapEx: Expected to come in towards the high end of the $52–$56 billion range Second-half 2026 profitability — puts and takes Headwinds: •2nm ramp dilution: Expected to dilute gross margin by 2–3% for full-year 2026 •Overseas fab dilution: Forecast at 2–3% in early stages, widening to 3–4% in later stages •Middle East-related cost pressures: Prices for certain chemicals and gases (including helium and hydrogen) likely to increase — impact on profitability noted but too early to quantify Tailwinds: •N3 gross margin expected to cross over to the corporate average in H2 2026 •Continued manufacturing excellence driving greater wafer output and cross-node capacity optimization Demand outlook •AI-related demand described as “extremely robust,” with a step-up in token consumption driven by the shift from generative AI in query mode to command-and-action mode •Q2 business supported by continued strong demand for leading-edge technologies •Management flagged rising component prices in consumer and price-sensitive end markets, as well as broader macroeconomic uncertainty from the Middle East situation, as risks The Q2 guidance implies a meaningful sequential acceleration, with the revenue midpoint of ~$39.6 billion representing the strongest quarter in TSMC’s history. Management’s confidence in the full-year outlook above 30% growth is underpinned by AI demand, despite macro and geopolitical headwinds.

@thevalueistApr 16, 2026 · 6:08 AM

$TSM Q1-26 CAPEX $11.1bn https://t.co/4k0lEqo3Oz

@thevalueistApr 16, 2026 · 6:01 AM

$TSM (Bloomberg) -- TSMC reported net income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. FIRST QUARTER RESULTS •Net income NT$572.5 billion, +58% y/y, estimate NT$542.38 billion (Bloomberg Consensus) •Gross margin 66.2% vs. 62.3% q/q, estimate 64.5% •Operating profit NT$658.97 billion, +62% y/y, estimate NT$623.82 billion •Operating margin 58.1% vs. 54% q/q, estimate 55.6% •Sales NT$1.13 trillion, +35% y/y, estimate NT$1.12 trillion

@aleabitoredditApr 16, 2026 · 2:07 AM

@KentTian Fittech is in $TSM Coupe ecosystem, Shunsin is Foxconn optical packaging. Win/Sivers is $JBL, $MRVL, and Ayar (maybe AlChip and others). They all end up to hyperscalers, just in different ways and different ones.

@thevalueistApr 15, 2026 · 10:45 PM

$TSM earnings on deck at 2am EDT (NYC) on 4/16/26. https://t.co/gmdevvUJp9

@thevalueistApr 15, 2026 · 10:34 PM

$TSM RESEARCH NOTE - TSMC COUPE: The Underappreciated Platform Layer for AI Photonic Interconnect https://t.co/bg8aUdZFoq Bottom Line: TSMC's COUPE should be understood as a foundry-and-packaging platform for optical AI interconnect, not as a stand-alone merchant switch product. That framing matters because it places COUPE at the control point where AI infrastructure is now running into its hardest constraints: bandwidth density, interconnect power, latency, package complexity, and serviceable optical integration. Public disclosures now show that COUPE is already beyond the purely conceptual stage. TSMC has tied it to a formal qualification path from pluggables into CoWoS-based co-packaged optics, NVIDIA has explicitly built flagship photonics switches around COUPE-based optical engines, and Broadcom has publicly said its Tomahawk 6 Davisson platform uses COUPE-based optical engines as well. The strategic implication is that value in the AI stack is migrating beyond leading-edge logic and HBM into silicon photonics, advanced packaging, lasers, fiber connectivity, optical assembly, OSAT execution, multiphysics EDA, and system-level test. The key debate is no longer whether optics enters AI networking. It is whether TSMC can industrialize COUPE fast enough, and broadly enough, to become the manufacturing default for optical AI interconnect before integrated-laser alternatives, optical chiplets, or lower-risk bridge architectures capture too much of the deployment curve.

@aleabitoredditApr 15, 2026 · 4:59 AM

Enplas (6961) at ~$985M seems kinda interesting. 
They hold two chokepoints: 1. Dominant supplier for MLAs (micro lens arrays). Eg. SiPH switches, 1.6T, 3.2T for photonics. 
 2. Oligopoly supplier for IC Test sockets (AI Chip Testing) Cash on hand: ~$155M, no debt. Equity-to-Asset Ratio: ~89% (50%+ usually is solid), so low downside risk imo. 
And their speculated customers: 1, Photonics (MLAs): Highly probable: Innolight, Eoptolink, Furukawa, Intel (SiPh). And prob $COHR, $LITE. 2. GPU/ASICs (Test Sockets): prob $TSM, ASE, types use these to likely test $NVDA GPUs, $GOOGL TPUs (Google Ironwood is highly probable). "expanding mass production orders for major GPU manufacturers, and for ASIC-related projects for hyperscalers."
 Then at OFC: OFC: “We will be showcasing our new products for 800Gbps and 1.6Tbps transceivers and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) that support today’s rapid technological advancements in AI.” Basically you have a company that supplies T1 semis, foundries, hyperscalers, that benefits from 1.6T from MLA photonics segment + CPO TAM expansion later from OFC products. Was one my positions wanted to share my thoughts about since it seemed p cool at sub <$1B MC.

@thevalueistApr 14, 2026 · 12:18 AM

$AMKR all time high today. I'm long 1/15/27 and 1/21/28 calls. As I have been saying, it is the only pure-play US-based OSAT and hyper-levered to $TSM AZ fab build out. Execution and financing risk are very high; it is a massive project relative to their existing size. I'm surprised stock has moved up this quickly without more tangible validation of their part of the AZ project. I'm not complaining. I've shared a lot about the company - search the ticker on my timeline for more information.

@investmentguru_Apr 13, 2026 · 12:35 AM

Overnight markets flashing risk 👇 U.S. futures slipping while oil surges on fresh Middle East tensions and a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade. Energy ripping → $OXY +8% → $XOM & $CVX +4% Tech under pressure → $MU -4% → $AVGO & $TSM -3% → $NVDA -2%+ → $TSLA, $META, $GOOG also lower Same playbook: Geopolitical risk → Oil spikes → Energy rallies → Tech sells Headline-driven market — expect volatility and fast rotations.

@aleabitoredditApr 11, 2026 · 4:37 PM

Didn’t I tell you all it’s possible retail can frontrun institutions anon?? -> Point72 is aggressively buying up $IQE 2 months later at ATHs... After my latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE supplier thesis post. -> Apollo literally bought out NSG, the $TSM COUPE glass provider I identified. -> And I've identified many others like $SIVE, the $MRVL / $JBL supplier to Riber the unknown quantum supplier to $MSFT (with the help of a friend) recently. I happen to like democratizing information discovery/synthesis to retail investors at the very beginning… Instead of selling analysis to institutions or behind $20000+ paywalls. Stocks are genuinely positive sum where retail can get the lead for the first time.

@thevalueistApr 11, 2026 · 3:28 PM

Congratulations if you survived this Iran war own goal craziness. Hopefully, the worst is behind us, and both sides realize it is better to reach a peaceful resolution to whatever remains. I don't see how the global GAI weapons dealer, $TSM , isn't a $500 stock by 1/21/28 with some sort of peace in the Middle East. The chart looks strong and poised for a breakout. As always, I am happy to hear the other side.

@thevalueistApr 10, 2026 · 12:18 PM

$TSM (Bloomberg) -- US-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. are up 2.1% in premarket trading, after the company reported March sales that reinforced how the company is seeing strong AI demand. ANALYST COMMENTARY Bloomberg Intelligence The sales data are “reinforcing our scenario analysis that AI-led demand for 3- and 5-nm chips is likely to keep 2Q sales growth in the high-single digits sequentially” However, “that strength may still not trigger an increase to the capital-spending budget target, as broad macroeconomic uncertainty and soft non-AI semiconductor demand are likely to persuade management to remain cautious” Bernstein (outperform, PT $351) “We expect AI to continue fueling growth for TSMC despite weak non-AI demand” While high prices for memory chips is weighing on the smartphone market, “fortunately for TSMC, we see no impact to its business as the capacity released by non-AI customers will be quickly filled by AI customers who could not find sufficient capacity before” Vital Knowledge The sales are “slightly ahead of the Street forecast” MARCH RESULTS Sales NT$415.19 billion Monthly sales (Y/y) +45.2% Monthly sales (M/m) +30.7% YTD sales NT$1.13 trillion YTD sales (Y/y) +35.1% COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT 1Q Sales NT$1.13T, Est. NT$1.12T NOTE: Company in Jan. forecast 1Q sales of $34.6b-$35.8b

@investmentguru_Apr 10, 2026 · 11:24 AM

Key Takeaways: - Anthropic Considers Developing Own AI Chips - $BABA Alibaba Confirms It Built Viral 'Happy Horse' Text-to-Video AI Model - $TSM Reports March Revenue of NT$415.19 Billion with 45.2% YoY Growth - Key Economic Events: CPI.

@aleabitoredditApr 10, 2026 · 12:52 AM

@alexanderlee1 Good times… still can’t believe it’s less than a month? $TSEM was only $13B MC when I went long. Now it’s ~$23B so close to doubling. There’s always more fish in the sea. Win Semi is pretty good over in Taiwan though. But yeah $TSM and $TSEM sound too similar

@aleabitoredditApr 10, 2026 · 12:32 AM

No, I’m still at a conservative 759% YTD after today’s overall rally. Lost too much from hedging. Would probably be up more if indexes and many individual names like $RDDT weren’t so down from macro. But if you pick selective winners like $AAOI or $AEHR … in hyperscaler supply chains: Turns out it’s possible outperform markets? I do think it’s a tad harder than it looks finding important players in each sector and timing catalysts. $TSEM was basically flat the entire year until I bought, then it rallied 90% in 3 weeks, so timing important too (eg. OFC announcements). And I’ve developed PTSD after finding the unknown $TSM COUPE glass substrates supplier… Only to watch them get bought out by Apollo shortly after. So not always having a good time. But glad if my ideas helped others outperform indexes or see where frontier industries are heading to.

@aleabitoredditApr 9, 2026 · 10:27 AM

Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.

@jerrycapApr 8, 2026 · 2:30 AM

$ASML could signal the need to increase capacity in 28 to &gt;100 tools... progress on high-NA... likely enough for $TSM/SK Hynix to drive high-NA demand in '28E (15 tools) https://t.co/YsgsyxC7S0

@jasonl_capitalApr 4, 2026 · 10:25 PM

Everyone screaming "bubble" but these are the 2027 forward P/E multiples for some of the largest companies in the world: $MU - 4x $ADBE - 9x $CRM - 12x $META - 13x $NVDA - 15x $TSM - 16x $AVGO - 17x $ORCL - 18x $AMD - 19x $GOOGL - 19x $MSFT - 19x $AMZN - 21x https://t.co/QjB94nUxfS

@aleabitoredditApr 4, 2026 · 1:05 PM

Who is even writing this? We don't need more leverage over our allies like Japan, Europe, or South Korea. We need them over Russia and China. - In SEA over 40% of gas stations in Laos have closed, - Cambodia and Thailand have started rationing and price controls - India, Pakistan and Bangladesh face rising prices and emergency conservation - SK/Japan remain exposed to disruptions. China can get just get their oil from Russia. And Russia got their export control removed... And China is playing arms dealer like what US did in WW1 right now. Why are we screwing over our own supply chains to help Russia/Israel out? They're called allies for a reason, and we don't need more leverage over them. If you really wanted to weaponize this: -> Secure supply chains first, pour funding into rare earths/precursors like Vietnam/South America and other places. -> Pour funding into refinery processing from SK/Japan/Canada/US -> Develop crude/processing in Venezuela First -> Build out alternative trade route: Which will take 3-5 years min. Then you can go blowing stuff up then go threatening European $ASML, Japanese $ARM, US $NVDA, Taiwan $TSM type chokepoints over China/Russia all together. Again: America First relies on: -securing own supply chains in Assembly Thailand, -Semiconductors in South Korea, -Chemical from Japan, -Foundries in Taiwan, -Rare Earths from Canada, - high-end equipment from Europe and others to make United States stronger. Then you weaponize that all together against our enemies. You can't just blow OUR OWN SUPPLY CHAINS and Relations around the world up then say America is becoming more dominant?

@rwang07Apr 4, 2026 · 1:14 AM

Still haven't gotten a response from Konrad on how to get that $TSM vest :( This is a great ep - recommend it

@aleabitoredditApr 3, 2026 · 11:06 AM

I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.

@rwang07Apr 2, 2026 · 9:55 PM

@PhotonCap SoIC 👀$TSM

@blackpanthercapApr 1, 2026 · 5:14 PM

THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN — COMPLETE MAP I've spent a few hours mapping the entire AI supply chain. Hyperscalers are spending $750 billion. These are the 42 companies building, powering, and deploying AI from start to finish. Every layer. Every sector. Bookmark it. Feel free to add companies in the comments. Layer 1: Chip Equipment (the machines that build the machines): $ASML $AMAT $LRCX $TSEM Layer 2: Foundry & Fabrication (where chips are born): $TSM $GFS $INTC Layer 3: GPU / ASIC / CPU (the AI compute engines): $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $MRVL Layer 4: Memory & HBM (the bandwidth bottleneck): $MU $WDC Layer 5: Photonics & Optical Interconnects: $COHR $LITE $AAOI $POET $MTSI $ALMU Layer 6: Data Center + Space (the physical home of AI): $IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF $EQIX $RKLB $ASTS $PL Layer 7: Cybersecurity (every new AI system is a new attack surface): $CRWD $PANW $ZS $NET $S $FTNT Layer 8: AI Software & Automation (where the ROI shows up): $PATH $PLTR $NOW $HIMS $DDOG $SNOW $MDB $SOFI Layer 9: Defense & End-Use (where AI becomes operational): $ONDS $OSS $RKLB $AMPX $LHX $RTX $NOC $PNG.V Every company on this list has either government budgets, hyperscaler contracts, or can potentially benefit from the AI build it somehow. Save this. And if you found this valuable, you should follow me. The market won't be red forever. -BP Please note: This is not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditMar 31, 2026 · 12:35 AM

CPO Value Chain Summary from Mirae Asset: Laser Source: Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) PIC Foundry: TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM> EIC, Driver IC: Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS, Optical Engine Innolight / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) TFC / Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU (Fiber Array Unit): Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU, Align Tools: ficonTEC (Private) All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST (Private) FAU, Engine Assembly: Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT, Advanced Packaging: ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > Connector, Ferrule: Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec (Private) T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex (Private) Browave (TWO: 3163) Fiber: Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / Nitto Boseki (TYO: 3110) E/O Testing: Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane (Private) Switch, System: NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL> EDA: Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > Confused by some of names of the list, they might have conflated a few names like Innolight with laser source like $MTSI, Sumitomo, $SIVE, Luxnet, with the actual end module (unless there's something that's not public material or I missed)? But just for people interested in the landscape, this is a good high-level overview.

@aleabitoredditMar 30, 2026 · 2:19 AM

I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).

@aleabitoredditMar 30, 2026 · 2:01 AM

CPO Landscape Mirae Analyst Note: Scale-Across: CPO ASIC: $AVGO, $MRVL Optical Transceiver: $COHR, $LITE, Innolight DSP/PAM4: $AVGO, $MRVL Coherent DCI: $CIEN, $NOK OCS Equipment: iPronics, Polatis Optical Cable / Fiber: $GLW, Prysmian, Furukawa HCF: $LITE, OFS DCI Coherent: Ciena, Nokia, Huawei Optical Amplifier: $LITE, $COHR OCS Gateway: KDDI Scale-Up: SiPh Foundry: imec, $GFS, $TSM SiPh Modulator: $NVDA (in-house MRM), $INTC ELS: NTT, Furukawa, $LITE, $COHR THz Interconnect: R&D Stage? CPO Test: "Expanding entry of new players" Micro Lens / Optical Systems: "Expanding entry of new players" TLDR: Scale Up CPO is coming next. Think the analyst note missed a bunch of upstream names and conflated ELS with light source. But it's helpful to see who they think the leading players are as a very high-level view.

@aleabitoredditMar 27, 2026 · 4:34 AM

I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.

@thevalueistMar 25, 2026 · 12:25 PM

Looking to take down $ARM 1/21/28 calls. ARM looks increasingly well positioned in the GAI CPU stack, with real architecture momentum building as x86 loses ground in more conversations. ARM has multiple ways to win here: potential upside from its own silicon efforts and royalty leverage through third-party CPUs like $NVDA Vera. The bigger question is supply. It’s hard to see how $TSM keeps up with all of this demand without a major capacity ramp—Arizona is starting to look like one giant semiconductor complex. That setup should be a clear positive for $AMKR .

@rwang07Mar 24, 2026 · 10:51 PM

1) $AVGO Director of Product Marketing Natarajan Ramachandran: "We are seeing that $TSM is hitting (production capacity) limits..." "They will be increasing the capacity to 2027, ​but that has become a bottleneck, or that has kind of choked ⁠the supply chain in 2026." Laser, logic, and memory constraints are well known. Maybe a more incremental comment is at #3.

@aleabitoredditMar 24, 2026 · 7:56 PM

$ARM announces new AI chip called "AGI CPU" According to Arm, the company "Expects it to add billions in annual revenue". - 136 Neoverse V3 cores, built on $TSM 3nm process - Custom-built for "agentic AI" workloads with OpenAI and $META as lead customers. $AMD and $INTC have recently received a tailwind from enterprise CPU shortage. You might be wondering: Does ARM Solve the Shortage? Architecturally, yes. Physically, no. Main beneficiary is $TSM, but this is a large tailwind for $ARM moving forward as they pivot from licensing.