Who mentions $PL most on Surfaced?

@kaizen_investor (KaizenInvestor) mentions $PL most — 183 mentions in the past 12 months.

When was $PL first mentioned on Surfaced?

The earliest tracked mention of $PL in the Surfaced archive was on Oct 3, 2025.

How many voices track $PL?

32 FinTwit voices have mentioned $PL 712 times in the past 12 months.

What kind of voices mention $PL most?

$PL is mentioned most by Long Research voices on Surfaced.

$PL — FinTwit mentions on Surfaced

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@kaizen_investorJul 16, 2026 · 2:21 PM

Investors ask me: when are high-growth stocks cheap enough to buy? How can I value them? Here is how I do it. For me, these stocks are not about the potential upside but about the potential downside. Take $ASTS as an example. I always start by doing a reverse DCF analysis. I see a lot of comments that a reverse DCF is impossible on high-growth companies, but in my opinion, it gives you valuable insights. For $ASTS, for example, they should be able to reach $2.86B in free cash flow to justify the current valuation. AST has a negative free cash flow at the moment and a revenue of $84.9 million. They don't have to reach it now, but if I want a 10% return each year from today's price, they should reach it in 2036. How realistic is this? I look at three major things: Full Potential, TAM, and SAM of the company. The full potential is what the company can reach in revenues without competition and with all the necessary equipment. The TAM is the total market demand for the service if there were no constraints with the current business model and products, and the SAM is the portion of the TAM that ASTS can actually reach. A quick look at the Direct-to-Device market and you'll find that the forecast of the market is between $140 and $200 billion annually by the mid-2030s. If we look at the SAM,$ASTS already has an existing pool of nearly 3 billion subscribers via partners. Deutsche Bank analysts estimate 1.75 billion mobile users willing to pay for extra satellite services by the mid-2030s. If AST SpaceMobile reaches an average market share of 35% and people pay around $2.5 extra/month for satellite services, you get a revenue of $18.37 billion. A realistic free cash flow margin for this kind of business model in a mature state fluctuates around 45% and 55%, so let's take 50%. The free cash flow would be $9.19B; the target looks highly realistic here. I just want to warn you: these kinds of calculations always look very bullish for high-growth stocks, as you completely take out the execution risk. That is why I think the downside for stocks like these is way more important to look at. So, how do you calculate the downside? First thing I look at is the balance sheet. How much cash does the company have, what is the total debt, and what are the short-term liabilities? For AST SpaceMobile, they have $3.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents. They also have $2.5 billion in other assets, pushing the total asset value just past the $6B mark. The downside is that they carry $3.4 billion in total liabilities, the vast majority of which is tied up in $3.0 billion of long-term debt. They also have a $1.41 billion burn rate at this level. Management has a guidance of $150m to $200m in 2026, and a target of $1 billion in 2027. This should lower the burn rate rapidly. AST also has some execution risks such as launch bottlenecks, manufacturing scaling, and heavy competition from Starlink. I honestly don't see a protected downside here like I do with $PL, for example. With this burn rate and debt, there is no safety net for the stock to fall to. It's a very aggressive stock with a lot of execution and financial risks. In this example, I'm happy to wait until the financials get a little bit better to recalculate my risk/reward.

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