just cleared the last major regulatory wall.
Potential AAR ramps from 2026 baseline $150M–$200M with 100–300%+ YoY growth post-45 satellites.
This leads to 2028–2030: $600M–$5B+ scenarios based on satellite count (45+ by end-2026 scaling to full constellation).
In April the FCC granted full commercial authority to deliver Supplemental Coverage from Space across the United States. 248-satellite authorization. Using AT&T and Verizon’s premium low-band 700/800 MHz spectrum.
The physics of low-band mean superior building penetration and coverage range vs any higher-frequency alternative.
This was the final regulatory gate between
and a commercial service.
Now here’s the catalyst map for the next 90 days:
Mid-June — BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 launch (Falcon 9, Cape Canaveral)
This is the next milestone that moves the stock. Three satellites in a single launch.
Block 2 BlueBird, 2,400 sq ft phased array, designed to exceed 120 Mbps peak speeds.
Production is running: BlueBird 11 through BlueBird 33 already in advanced assembly in Midland, Texas.
Q3 2026 — Scaled commercial service activation begins $150M–$200M full-year 2026 revenue guidance maintained.
Primary driver: mobile network partner revenue and US government contracts. AT&T, Verizon, TELUS, Rakuten, Vodafone + 50+ MNO agreements globally targeting 2.9 billion addressable people.
Q4 2026 — 45 satellite constellation threshold.
Management has guided to roughly 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year end, supported by a one-to-two month average launch cadence.
At 45 satellites, continuous US coverage becomes possible.
The Bear Case:
BlueBird 7 was lost on the New Glenn 3 mission. This is real risk. Launch vehicle dependency is the single biggest operational variable.
The insurance claim covers the asset cost, not the schedule delay. If another launch failure occurs, the 45-satellite target slips and the revenue guide is at risk.
Net loss widened in Q1 2026. This is still a pre-revenue-scale business burning capital to build the constellation.
The thesis only works if satellite deployment outpaces cash burn.
I’ve recently added
IPO coming up.
Entry zone at $85, and the FCC commercial authorization materially de-risked the regulatory layer that was the biggest question six months ago.
The next thing the market is pricing is whether launches execute on schedule.
Mid-June is the first answer.
-BP
Not financial advice.
The best way to look at it is consider what financials are required for $SPCX to be an attractive investment.
This exercise requires you to figure out how many users Starlink would need to generate xB dollars of revenue. Looking at 50-100B in the next 5 years puts the stock at a reasonable price.
This is also somewhat dependent on the AI business, too. Not too many companies dream of operating low margin data centers, but, it’s working right now. The optionality that xAI figures out how to compete more aggressively with their new partner or OpenAI is hard to value.
Most importantly, you have to value management’s ability to turn cash into durable businesses. This is why just modeling cash flow without considering management’s skill is useless. A team that churns cash flow on weak projects is worth far less than a team who deploys intelligently. This is the core of valuation and capitalism.
$SPCX RESEARCH NOTE - SpaceX IPO: Full Institutional Underwriting Framework
https://t.co/31dpXZ0zqo
https://t.co/0RarjTzzWI
Bottom Line: SpaceX is an extraordinary strategic asset with real launch scale, a profitable Starlink/Connectivity engine, and rare optionality across Starship, direct-to-device connectivity, government services, terrestrial AI compute, and long-dated orbital AI infrastructure. The public-market setup remains demanding: a reported $1.75 trillion valuation would require investors to underwrite not only Connectivity's current profitability, but also Starship execution, AI infrastructure profitability, disciplined capital allocation, and durable founder-led execution across several capital-intensive domains. The S-1 makes the debate sharper: Connectivity generated $11.387 billion of 2025 revenue and $4.423 billion of operating income, while AI generated $3.201 billion of revenue, a $(6.355) billion operating loss, and $12.727 billion of capex. Consolidated operating cash flow was positive at $6.785 billion in 2025, but PPE purchases were $20.737 billion, and Q1 2026 capex accelerated to $10.107 billion. The note should therefore be valued as a segmented infrastructure and option-value underwriting exercise, not as a simple high-growth technology IPO. Additional diligence priorities are deal mechanics and technical demand, AI contract durability and supply-chain bottlenecks, Musk-ecosystem related-party cash flows, and a capital-commitments/use-of-proceeds waterfall.
BREAKING:
SpaceX targets June 12 IPO on Nasdaq under $SPCX at $1.75T valuation.
Musk holds 85.1% voting power as CEO, CTO, and Chairman.
Q1 revenue hits $4.69B with $4.28B net loss
SpaceX $SPCX is officially set to go public on June 12.
This will be the largest IPO in history, & will cause a total reprice amongst the entire space sector.
These are the critical sectors amongst the space theme:
Satellite Communication & Operations
$ASTS ~ AST SpaceMobile
$PL ~ Planet Labs
$GSAT ~ Globalstar
$SPIR ~ Spire Global
$AMZN ~ Amazon
$VSAT ~ Viasat
Spacecraft & launch systems
$RDW ~ Redwire
$RKLB ~ RocketLab
$LMT ~ Lockheed Martin
$KTOS ~ Kratos Defense
$FLY ~ Firefly Aerospace
$LUNR ~ Intuitive Machines
Specialty Materials
$CRS ~ Carpenter Technology
$ATI ~ ATI Inc
$MTRN ~ Materion
$GLW ~ Corning
$PKE ~ Park Aerospace
Propulsion Systems & Fuel
$LIN ~ Linde
$APD ~ Air products & Chem
$NEU ~ NewMarket
Electronics & Semis
$NVDA ~ Nvidia
$AVGO ~ Broadcom
$COHR ~ Coherent
$LITE ~ Lumentum
BREAKING: SpaceX reportedly picks NASDAQ as listing venue for its initial public offering, as early as June 11th, set to list shares on June 12th, under the ticker $SPCX, per Reuters
