Surfaced — Signal Ledger

Buy me a coffee

@blackpanthercapMay 14, 2026 · 4:47 PM

🚨THE BEARS HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE SAME THING FOR THREE YEARS. And they’re about to be wrong again. Morgan Stanley just raised their S&P 500 target to 8,300. Year-end 2026 target: 8,000. Twelve-month target: 8,300. Over 12% upside from current levels around 7,400. But here’s the line that matters most: “Our bullish index view is an earnings story, not a multiple expansion one.” Read that again. EARNINGS. > 83.2% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 estimates. > Morgan Stanley projects $339 EPS for 2026. That’s 23% growth, followed by $380 in 2027 and $429 in 2028. A compounding earnings machine. Not a bubble. Now let me show you what the bears keep getting wrong. There’s a clip making the rounds right now. A guy pulls up two charts side by side. > Left chart: The dot-com era. Price ripping higher. Earnings flatlined. Pure narrative. Pure multiple expansion. Pure speculation. > Right chart: Right now, 2023-2026. Earnings are LEADING price. AI and semiconductors are driving actual profits. Price is still CATCHING UP to the gray line. His point? We’re not in a bubble. We’re in the middle of an earnings cycle that hasn’t fully repriced yet. He’s right. $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix and Samsung, 75% of the $DRAM market are proof. These are companies printing money faster than analysts can revise targets upward. > The memory supercycle isn’t priced in. > The AI infrastructure buildout isn’t priced in. The earnings are real and the multiples are still compressing INTO the growth. The dot-com bubble was speculation in search of earnings. This is earnings in search of a price that can catch up. There’s a massive difference. So where does the money go? $SPY and $QQQ as a passive bet + into the infrastructure that’s CAUSING the earnings surge. Here’s where I’m positioned: → $IREN → $NBIS → $CIFR → $AAOI → $SIVE → $RKLB → $OUST → $PENG → $ONDS → $KRKNF Every single one of these names sits inside the structural AI buildout that’s driving the future earnings Morgan Stanley just upgraded their entire index outlook for. HERE’S THE MACRO SETUP Morgan Stanley explicitly ties their revised outlook to AI adoption enhancing operating leverage across the S&P 500 and a rolling earnings recovery that continues to progress. This isn’t a macro call. This is a capital allocation call. The earnings cycle is real. The infrastructure buildout is real. The defense spending acceleration is real. $QQQ and $SPY tell you the tide is coming in. The names above tell you which boats rise the most. The dot-com bubble was price without earnings. This is earnings without price. The gray line hasn’t been touched yet. We’re mid-cycle. Act accordingly. Still long. Still adding. Still building. -BP Please remember: This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I hold positions in many of the names mentioned.

@blackpanthercapApr 19, 2026 · 6:12 PM

HOW I WILL PLAY THE NEXT MONTHS AND WHAT I EXPECT: I want to touch on 5 important things: 1. First, I’m sad to see the lunch of $ASTS fail. I sold a while ago. “$Execution delays is a risks. Sold and took profit recently.” Still saddens me to see. 2. I see a lot of new concerns on US/Iran. Here’s my take and how I will play it: Overall I believe we have see the worst. I could be wrong. But usually when ceasefire and ‘talks’ have been somehow ongoing it’s very rare a full blown war will continue. I expect some volatility short-term. I’ll be DCA’en through if it plays out. Long-term I have NO concerns. US are on their way to a ‘goldilocks’ era. So many investments are being made INTO US. I expect inflation to rise short-term. Fall afterwards towards the goldilock-era for US where AI infrastructure will play out and dominate. Lastly. I see some concerns about ‘oh, but $SPY $SPX $QQQ are all back to ATH and topping. Yes. But MAG7 is not topping. $NVDA $GOOG $AMZN are close to touching Octobers high. But recently. $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA are far from it. Meaning the ‘top’ is not driven by small cap or MAG7. But the middle-layer of $SPYx / SP500. I’m not concerned. But expect more of a rotation to continue into risk-on - when US/Iran clears. 3. A couple of hours ago I released a FREE NEW extensive deep dive on $OUST. You should go read it. 4. I’m considering creating a FREE group-chat here on X. A community. What I expect of the group: This is not a buy/sell signal group. But a group to connect with like-minded. Analyzing the market, sharing ideas, research, insights, learnings and Go deep on finding gems together. There’s limited spots. If you want to join. Comment: “YES.” And just to be clear: I dont have a course or offer no paid services. 5. Based on 2) - I’ll sit tight in my long-term high conviction plays with ease and peace. Add on dips. Pure DCA. Meanwhile I’ll soon open up my short-term account again and begin some short-term swing trades in the timeframe of less than < 6 months. -BP. Please note: this is not financial advice.