$LRCX

@investmentguru_May 12, 2026 · 10:02 AM

The 2026 Memory Market May Extend the Supercycle AI training, inference, and data center buildout are keeping memory demand structurally elevated — and the full stack is worth watching. Here’s who plays where 👇 🟠 DRAM / HBM → SK Hynix — world’s largest DRAM & HBM supplier → Samsung Electronics — top 3 DRAM & HBM globally → $MU — top 3 DRAM & HBM + #4 in global NAND 🔵 NAND → $SNDK — #5 in the global NAND market 🩵 HDD → $STX — Seagate Technology → $WDC — Western Digital (Two of the last major global HDD manufacturers) 🟢 Data Storage Systems & Solutions → $NTAP — enterprise memory storage leader → $PSTG — global leader in flash storage 🔴 Equipment → $LRCX — memory packaging vendor → $AMAT — thin-film deposition for memory chip manufacturing 🔵 Controllers & Interconnect Silicon → $RMBS — U.S. memory IP vendor → $SIMO — global leader in memory controller solutions → $MRVL — leader in memory & storage technologies → $INTC — advanced packaging (Foveros) critical to next-gen HBM stacking The memory supercycle isn’t just $MU. It’s an entire ecosystem repricing for the AI era — from HBM to controllers to equipment. Not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditMay 10, 2026 · 7:30 AM

“Leading” Glass Substrate players that were name dropped if you’re curious: • $LPK — TGV Equipment • $GLW — Glass Materials • $ASGLY (5201 T)— Glass Materials • $NIDGY (5214 T) — Glass Materials • $LRCX — Etching Systems • $DSCSY (6146 T)— Dicing Equipment • $SMHSF — Bonding Systems • $ONTO — Inspection Tools • $KLAC — Inspection Tools Fun to see the stuff I’ve called out early in the year like LPK at ~$150m MC get mentioned as a critical player by Trendforce and others.

@investmentguru_May 9, 2026 · 3:53 PM

The Complete Semiconductor Playbook — AI Supercycle 2026 🤖 EDGE AI $QUIK · $CEVA · $SYNA · $QCOM · $INDI · $VLN · $SMTC → AI leaves the data center. Devices. Cars. Factories. Multi-year secular trend just getting started. 🏗️ AI INFRA $SGH · $SKYT · $AVGO · $NVDA · $ARM · $CRDO · $MRVL → The “Nvidia-only” era is over. The full stack is getting priced in. ⚡ POWER $POWI · $TXN · $MPWR · $VICR · $GANX · $AEHR → AI data centers are power monsters. Unsexy. Essential. Increasingly scarce. 🔬 FUTURE-TECH $LWLG · $AXTI · $POET · $TSEM · $GFS · $IPGP → Silicon photonics foundry capacity = national strategic asset. 🛠️ EQUIPMENT $AMAT · $LRCX · $KLAC · $ASML · $ONTO · $ACMR → Without these, nothing above gets built. Map the full stack. That’s where the alpha is. Not financial advice. DYOR

@investmentguru_May 9, 2026 · 3:53 PM

The Complete Semiconductor Playbook — AI Supercycle 2026 The AI trade is no longer one ticker. It’s a full stack. Here’s every layer: 💾 MEMORY $MU · $WDC · $STX · $SNDK · $AMAT · $LRCX → HBM4 = the new oil. Not a commodity anymore. Strategic infrastructure. 🔌 CONTROLLERS $RMBS · $SIMO · $ATOM · $MCHP · $ADI · $TXN → The traffic cops of every AI system. Overlooked. Undervalued. Critical. 📦 PACKAGING / TESTING $AMKR · $FORM · $CAMT · $ONTO · $COHU · $ACMR → CoWoS. HBM stacking. Chiplets. This is where chips become systems. 🧠 NEXT-GEN MEMORY $MRAM · $GSIT · $NVEC · $NLST · $CEVA → Beyond DRAM. Early-stage. Asymmetric upside when the cycle arrives. 🌐 OPTICAL / INTERCONNECT $LITE · $AAOI · $COHR · $CIEN · $MRVL · $GLW · $MTSI · $TSEM · $POET · $LWLG · $FN → The hottest sub-sector in semis right now. 800G → 1.6T. CPO is the next arms race.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 1:00 AM

I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research).
 For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.

@aleabitoredditApr 23, 2026 · 5:27 AM

@northyvt I feel like $TSM and OSAT/advanced packaging partners are the main beneficiaries apart from $AMD? Maybe like $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML and others too? $INTC also have their own fabs that they bought back recently so it's happy.

@thevalueistApr 22, 2026 · 11:25 PM

$LRCX KEY READ-THROUGHS FROM LAM RESEARCH Q3 2026 EARNINGS CALL Lam Research’s Q3 2026 call was materially constructive for the broader semiconductor complex, with the most important read-through being that AI-driven demand is broadening from accelerators and HBM into NAND, DRAM node transitions, foundry/logic, advanced packaging, and installed-base productivity. Management raised its 2026 WFE outlook from the prior $135B range to $140B with “a bias to the upside,” stated that customer spending projections have moved higher “across all device segments,” and indicated that 2027 is setting up for “another year of compelling WFE growth.” The call also carried a clear constraint signal: demand is not the limiting factor; cleanroom availability, supply-chain readiness, installation resources, and execution capacity are. The strongest positive read-throughs are for semicap equipment, advanced packaging, HBM/DRAM, NAND/enterprise SSDs, process-control, and semicap subsuppliers. The most relevant negative read-throughs are for mature-node capex, China-exposed demand chains, hyperscaler free cash flow, and longer-duration memory capex intensity if capacity additions eventually outrun demand. SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITAL EQUIPMENT: BROAD WFE UPGRADE EXTENDS THE SEMICAP EARNINGS CYCLE (READ-THROUGH 1) Call support: Lam raised its 2026 WFE view from the prior “$135B range” to “$140B with a bias to the upside,” with management stating that “spending projections from customers have moved higher across all device segments.” Management also stated that this “sets the stage for another year of compelling WFE growth in 2027.” In Q&A, management reinforced that “everything is a little bit stronger” and that the constraint is execution capacity and cleanroom availability, not end demand. Affected companies: Applied Materials (AMAT: US), Tokyo Electron (8035: Japan), ASML Holding (ASML: Netherlands), KLA Corp. (KLAC: US), SCREEN Holdings (7735: Japan), ASM International (ASM: Netherlands). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for semicap equipment broadly; highest for deposition, etch, process control, advanced packaging, and subsystems exposed to leading-edge capacity additions. Positive, medium magnitude for lithography because Lam’s commentary is not lithography-specific but indicates a broader capacity build. Near-term trading catalyst: Upward estimate revisions for 2026 and 2027 WFE assumptions, particularly where sell-side models still embed a digestion period after the current AI-driven capex surge. Lam’s June quarter guide of $6.6B revenue, 50.5% gross margin, 36.5% operating margin, and $1.65 EPS also raises the probability that peers with similar WFE exposure report stronger order commentary, backlog conversion, and margin leverage. Longer-duration fundamental shift: The call supports a multi-year semicap cycle rather than a 1-year AI pull-forward. The key structural shift is rising equipment intensity per wafer as AI requires more complex memory, logic, and packaging architectures. Lam’s statement that its SAM as a percentage of WFE should expand to slightly above the mid-30s% level in 2026 and toward the high-30s% level over the next few years implies that non-lithography process steps are increasing in economic importance. Transmission mechanism: Higher AI compute demand is causing foundries, memory manufacturers, and advanced packaging customers to raise capital intensity. Equipment vendors benefit through higher systems shipments, longer lead times, improved factory absorption, better pricing for high-value tools, and higher service revenue from elevated fab utilization. The constraint-driven nature of demand increases the value of reliable tools, field support, and process performance, supporting both revenue and margin quality. SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT COMPETITION: LAM-SPECIFIC SHARE GAINS ARE A NEGATIVE RELATIVE READ-THROUGH FOR SELECT DEPOSITION AND ETCH PEERS (READ-THROUGH 2) Call support: Management stated that Lam’s SAM as a percentage of WFE is expanding and that the company is “well on-track” toward a high-30s% WFE share goal. Lam cited “first dielectric etch wins at a key foundry logic manufacturer,” described Striker-based solutions as “tools of record at all leading memory makers” for bitline spacer applications, and highlighted Kiyo wins where “a customer switched to Kiyo in the middle of their production ramp due to superior DPEC performance and better yield.” Affected companies: Lam Research (LRCX: US), Applied Materials (AMAT: US), Tokyo Electron (8035: Japan), ASM International (ASM: Netherlands), Hitachi High-Tech via Hitachi (6501: Japan). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for Lam Research. Negative, medium magnitude for selected peer process-tool vendors where overlap exists in deposition, etch, ALD, and process modules. The read-through is relative rather than absolute because the rising WFE tide still benefits most equipment suppliers. Near-term trading catalyst: Lam’s specific share-gain language could drive relative outperformance versus deposition/etch peers if investors conclude that Lam is capturing incremental process steps in DRAM, NAND, and foundry/logic rather than merely growing with WFE. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Process complexity is becoming a share-shift catalyst. High aspect ratio etch, ALD carbide films, dielectric etch, backside stress management, and gap-fill requirements are moving from niche process challenges to core enablers of AI-era device scaling. Suppliers with validated process-of-record positions should gain more durable share. Transmission mechanism: As customers migrate to 1C DRAM, >200-layer NAND, and leading-edge foundry/logic architectures, process windows narrow and yield sensitivity increases. Tool vendors with proven performance can displace incumbent tools even during production ramps. Lam’s disclosed mid-ramp Kiyo win is particularly important because mid-ramp tool changes are unusual and usually require a material performance or yield advantage. SEMICAP SUBSUPPLIERS: STRETCHING LEAD TIMES AND NEW CAPACITY BUILDOUTS SUPPORT ORDERS FOR VACUUM, RF, GAS DELIVERY, FLUIDICS, AND PRECISION COMPONENTS (READ-THROUGH 3) Call support: Management stated that lead times are “stretching out a little bit” as demand is “quite strong.” The company is adding a 2nd manufacturing facility in Malaysia in 2H 2026, described as approximately the same size as its existing large facility. Capex rose to $332M, and management said spending is supporting the Malaysia facility as well as lab investments in the U.S. and Taiwan. Headcount rose by approximately 900 sequentially, primarily in manufacturing, field, and R&D. Affected companies: Ichor Holdings (ICHR: US), Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT: US), MKS Instruments (MKSI: US), Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS: US), VAT Group (VACN: Switzerland), Atlas Copco (ATCOA: Sweden). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, medium-to-high magnitude for semicap component and subsystem suppliers tied to Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, ASML, and KLA production ramps. Highest magnitude for companies exposed to vacuum subsystems, gas delivery, RF power, precision cleaning, flow control, and process-critical modules. Near-term trading catalyst: Lam’s commentary on stronger WFE, stretching lead times, and manufacturing capacity additions supports improved order visibility for the semicap supply chain into 2H 2026 and 2027. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Supply-chain localization, redundancy, and regional manufacturing scale are becoming strategic differentiators for equipment vendors. Subsuppliers that are qualified across multiple global fabs and can support Malaysia, Taiwan, Korea, the U.S., and China supply chains should command better visibility and potentially stronger pricing. Transmission mechanism: As equipment OEMs scale factory output, subsystem suppliers receive higher purchase orders for chambers, gas panels, valves, vacuum assemblies, RF generators, power systems, and precision cleaning services. Higher installed-base utilization also increases aftermarket demand for parts and maintenance-related consumables. PROCESS CONTROL AND METROLOGY: YIELD-CRITICAL COMPLEXITY IS A STRUCTURAL POSITIVE FOR INSPECTION AND METROLOGY (READ-THROUGH 4) Call support: Customers are focused on “throughput, uptime, defectivity, overall fab cycle time,” and management emphasized that small yield improvements are economically meaningful in a constrained environment. Lam described equipment intelligence as using “massive amounts of data coming from our tools on every single wafer” to shorten troubleshooting time, improve tool matching, and improve chamber-to-chamber performance. Affected companies: KLA Corp. (KLAC: US), Onto Innovation (ONTO: US), Nova (NVMI: Israel), Camtek (CAMT: Israel), Applied Materials (AMAT: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for KLA and other process-control vendors; positive, medium magnitude for metrology and inspection suppliers tied to advanced packaging, HBM, and leading-edge foundry. Near-term trading catalyst: Lam’s comments imply that customers are not only adding capacity, but also urgently attempting to extract more output from constrained fabs. This should support process-control spending, software analytics, inspection intensity, and yield-management tools. Longer-duration fundamental shift: AI-era devices increase defect sensitivity across advanced memory, foundry/logic, and packaging. Yield management becomes more valuable as structures become 3D, layers increase, and package integration becomes more complex. Transmission mechanism: Higher layer-count NAND, 1C DRAM, advanced packaging, and leading-edge foundry flows require tighter process windows and more inspection/metrology steps. Process-control vendors benefit as customers need to identify defects earlier, optimize tool matching, reduce excursion risk, and shorten ramp time. Lam’s own equipment-intelligence push validates the broader thesis that data-driven yield control is becoming central to fab productivity. NAND AND ENTERPRISE SSDs: DATA CENTER NAND DEMAND IS INFLECTING FASTER THAN CURRENT MIX SUGGESTS (READ-THROUGH 5) Call support: Management stated that AI transformation is moving “beyond compute and into the storage layer,” that “token economics” are driving changes in the AI memory hierarchy, and that data centers are adopting “higher layer count QLC based NAND devices for SSDs.” Lam expects “total datacenter bits this year to be greater than both PC and mobile segments combined.” The company also said the majority of the previously discussed roughly $40B NAND conversion spending should occur before the end of calendar 2027. Affected companies: Micron Technology (MU: US), Samsung Electronics (005930: Korea), SK hynix (000660: Korea), SanDisk (SNDK: US), Kioxia Holdings (285A: Japan), Pure Storage (PSTG: US), NetApp (NTAP: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for NAND producers with enterprise SSD exposure. Positive, medium magnitude for enterprise storage vendors and all-flash data-center architectures. Positive, high magnitude for NAND-exposed equipment suppliers, especially Lam and Tokyo Electron. Near-term trading catalyst: NAND-exposed equities could react positively if investors recalibrate the timing of NAND recovery from gradual to accelerated. The key call surprise was not March quarter NVM revenue, which was only 12% of systems revenue, but management’s conviction that conversion spending is being pulled forward into 2026-2027. Longer-duration fundamental shift: NAND is becoming more strategically relevant to AI infrastructure. The call supports a view that AI memory hierarchy is no longer only about HBM and DRAM bandwidth; storage-layer economics are becoming critical as model size, inference activity, data retrieval, and token-generation economics scale. Transmission mechanism: Higher AI storage requirements increase demand for high-capacity QLC enterprise SSDs. NAND producers benefit through bit demand, pricing, mix, and utilization. Equipment suppliers benefit because migration to >200-layer and 256-layer+ NAND requires more high aspect ratio etch, deposition, word line metallization, stress management, and gap-fill content. Enterprise storage vendors benefit if QLC NAND adoption accelerates system refresh cycles and shifts data-center architectures toward denser flash tiers. NAND CAPEX INTENSITY: POSITIVE FOR EQUIPMENT, BUT A LONGER-TERM MARGIN AND FREE CASH FLOW RISK FOR NAND PRODUCERS (READ-THROUGH 6) Call support: Lam stated that roughly $40B of conversion spending is required to enable existing NAND wafer capacity to produce devices with more than 200 layers and that most of this spending is now expected before the end of calendar 2027. Management also indicated that bit-demand growth should eventually drive greenfield investment because installed wafer capacity is expected to decline more than 20% from prior highs by the end of 2026. Affected companies: Micron Technology (MU: US), Samsung Electronics (005930: Korea), SK hynix (000660: Korea), SanDisk (SNDK: US), Kioxia Holdings (285A: Japan). Directional impact and magnitude: Near-term positive, high magnitude for NAND producers due to stronger demand and utilization. Longer-term negative-to-mixed, medium magnitude because the required conversion and greenfield spend raises capital intensity and creates future supply-risk if demand expectations prove too aggressive. Near-term trading catalyst: NAND producers should benefit from evidence that AI data-center demand is absorbing high-capacity QLC bits faster than expected. Longer-duration fundamental shift: NAND scaling is becoming more capital intensive. The industry may need to spend heavily simply to restore effective bit output and technological competitiveness, not just to add incremental wafer starts. Transmission mechanism: Strong AI storage demand improves revenue, mix, and utilization for NAND manufacturers. However, the same trend requires accelerated conversion spending, higher equipment intensity, and eventual greenfield additions. If these investments expand bit supply faster than sustainable demand, the industry could face future price pressure. The most favorable outcome is disciplined conversion-led supply growth; the negative scenario is a greenfield-heavy supply response that recreates historical NAND oversupply dynamics. DRAM AND HBM: 1C MIGRATION AND HBM COMPLEXITY SUPPORT A HIGHER WFE-PER-BIT FRAMEWORK (READ-THROUGH 7) Call support: DRAM reached a record 27% of Lam systems revenue, up from 23% in the prior quarter. Management cited strong HBM investment, migration toward 1C and beyond, and the need to enable DDR5 and LPDDR5. Lam also stated that 1C DRAM is driving a transition from furnace-deposited silicon nitride to ALD silicon carbide low-k films for bitline capacitance reduction, with low-k bitline spacers potentially reducing capacitance by more than 60%. Lam expects its total dielectric deposition SAM in DRAM to grow more than 20%. Affected companies: Micron Technology (MU: US), SK hynix (000660: Korea), Samsung Electronics (005930: Korea), Applied Materials (AMAT: US), ASM International (ASM: Netherlands), Tokyo Electron (8035: Japan), KLA Corp. (KLAC: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for DRAM manufacturers with HBM and leading-node exposure; positive, high magnitude for process equipment vendors exposed to ALD, etch, deposition, and process control. Near-term trading catalyst: Confirmation of record DRAM tool demand and sustained HBM investment supports positive sentiment for memory capex and HBM supply-chain equities. Longer-duration fundamental shift: DRAM scaling economics are increasingly driven by power efficiency, capacitance reduction, and bandwidth rather than capacity alone. This supports higher WFE per incremental bit and structurally improves semicap content intensity. Transmission mechanism: HBM and advanced DRAM nodes require more complex front-end process steps and tighter yield control. Memory manufacturers benefit from AI-driven mix and pricing if demand remains supply-constrained. Equipment suppliers benefit because 1C migration creates new ALD and etch process requirements, while HBM stack complexity increases capital intensity across wafer fabrication, packaging, and test. ADVANCED PACKAGING EQUIPMENT AND TEST: PACKAGING CAPACITY IS A DIRECT BENEFICIARY OF AI ARCHITECTURE COMPLEXITY (READ-THROUGH 8) Call support: Lam expects its advanced packaging revenue growth to exceed 50% in calendar 2026. Management cited copper plating and TSV etch as areas of strength. In Q&A, management also noted that PECVD benefits from advanced packaging underfill applications. On HBM, management said higher stacks require more equipment and that “the trade ratio gets a little more challenging for the industry.” Affected companies: BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI: Netherlands), ASMPT (0522: Hong Kong), Advantest (6857: Japan), Teradyne (TER: US), Onto Innovation (ONTO: US), Camtek (CAMT: Israel), ASE Technology (3711: Taiwan), Amkor Technology (AMKR: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for advanced packaging equipment and HBM test vendors; positive, medium magnitude for OSATs with advanced packaging capacity. Near-term trading catalyst: Lam’s >50% advanced packaging growth expectation is a strong confirmation point for AI packaging capex. It should support near-term investor confidence in hybrid bonding, TSV, copper plating, inspection, and high-end test exposure. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Advanced packaging is becoming a core scaling vector, not a secondary back-end process. As AI accelerators, HBM, and chiplets become more complex, package-level process equipment and test intensity should rise structurally. Transmission mechanism: AI accelerators require HBM integration, high-bandwidth interconnect, chiplet assembly, and yield-sensitive package architectures. Packaging equipment vendors benefit from higher capex intensity, while test vendors benefit from more complex devices, higher pin counts, longer test times, and greater known-good-die requirements. OSATs benefit from demand for advanced packaging capacity, though capex requirements may pressure free cash flow. LEADING-EDGE FOUNDRY AND AI ACCELERATOR SUPPLY CHAIN: CAPACITY SIGNALS REMAIN STRONG INTO 2027 (READ-THROUGH 9) Call support: Foundry was 54% of Lam systems revenue, and foundry revenue dollars were approximately flat sequentially and up 35% year-over-year. Management stated that Lam is seeing “strengthened investments at the leading-edge as well as ongoing mature node spending.” Tim Archer also said there is “just not enough compute” and “not enough memory in the world.” Lam achieved its 1st dielectric etch wins at a key foundry/logic manufacturer. Affected companies: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (2330: Taiwan), Samsung Electronics (005930: Korea), Intel (INTC: US), NVIDIA (NVDA: US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: US), Broadcom (AVGO: US), Marvell Technology (MRVL: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for leading-edge foundries and AI accelerator suppliers. Positive, medium magnitude for Intel Foundry because the industry signal is favorable, but company-specific execution remains the dominant variable. Near-term trading catalyst: Lam’s comments support continued strong AI accelerator capacity demand and reduce the probability of a near-term foundry capex pause. Longer-duration fundamental shift: The AI compute supply chain remains capacity-constrained across logic, memory, and packaging. This supports sustained leading-edge foundry investment, higher semiconductor content, and more durable AI accelerator growth, provided end-market monetization remains intact. Transmission mechanism: AI accelerator designers require more wafer capacity, HBM supply, and advanced packaging capacity. Foundries benefit from sustained demand for leading-edge nodes. AI silicon vendors benefit if capacity growth allows higher shipment volumes. Equipment suppliers benefit from customer urgency and longer forward planning horizons.

@thevalueistApr 22, 2026 · 8:14 PM

$LRCX (Bloomberg) -- Lam Research forecast adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate. FOURTH QUARTER FORECAST •Sees adjusted EPS $1.50 to $1.80, estimate $1.45 (Bloomberg Consensus) •Sees revenue $6.2 billion to $7 billion, estimate $6.04 billion •Sees adjusted gross margin 49.5% to 51.5%, estimate 49.2% •Sees adjusted operating margin 35.5% to 37.5%, estimate 34.5% THIRD QUARTER RESULTS •Adjusted EPS $1.47, estimate $1.37 •Revenue $5.84 billion, +24% y/y, estimate $5.75 billion ◦Systems revenue $3.73 billion, +23% y/y, estimate $3.75 billion ◦Customer support-related revenue and other $2.11 billion, +25% y/y, estimate $1.98 billion •Adjusted gross margin 49.9% vs. 49% y/y, estimate 49.2% •Capital expenditure $331.6 million, +15% y/y, estimate $222.5 million

@blackpanthercapApr 1, 2026 · 5:14 PM

THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN — COMPLETE MAP I've spent a few hours mapping the entire AI supply chain. Hyperscalers are spending $750 billion. These are the 42 companies building, powering, and deploying AI from start to finish. Every layer. Every sector. Bookmark it. Feel free to add companies in the comments. Layer 1: Chip Equipment (the machines that build the machines): $ASML $AMAT $LRCX $TSEM Layer 2: Foundry & Fabrication (where chips are born): $TSM $GFS $INTC Layer 3: GPU / ASIC / CPU (the AI compute engines): $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $MRVL Layer 4: Memory & HBM (the bandwidth bottleneck): $MU $WDC Layer 5: Photonics & Optical Interconnects: $COHR $LITE $AAOI $POET $MTSI $ALMU Layer 6: Data Center + Space (the physical home of AI): $IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF $EQIX $RKLB $ASTS $PL Layer 7: Cybersecurity (every new AI system is a new attack surface): $CRWD $PANW $ZS $NET $S $FTNT Layer 8: AI Software & Automation (where the ROI shows up): $PATH $PLTR $NOW $HIMS $DDOG $SNOW $MDB $SOFI Layer 9: Defense & End-Use (where AI becomes operational): $ONDS $OSS $RKLB $AMPX $LHX $RTX $NOC $PNG.V Every company on this list has either government budgets, hyperscaler contracts, or can potentially benefit from the AI build it somehow. Save this. And if you found this valuable, you should follow me. The market won't be red forever. -BP Please note: This is not financial advice.

@kaizen_investorMar 7, 2026 · 4:45 PM

You can now listen to my article about the AI supply chain. It’s a cool new feature from X. Do you want to know why $AXTI, $AAOI, and $LITE are critical bottlenecks? Why SK Hynix is completely sold out in 2026? Or why $ASML and $LRCX are lagging a bit behind? Have a read/listen to the article and let me know what you think.

@kaizen_investorMar 4, 2026 · 4:47 PM

I have written a full article on the AI chip supply chain. The supply chain is structured into 4 different phases with 13 layers: 1. Raw Materials: $SHECY, $SUOPY, GlobalWafers, $WAF.DE, $SHWDF, $AXTI, $IQE 2. Manufacturing Equipment: $ASML, $ASM.AS, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC 3. EDA & Core Intellectual Property: $SNPS, $CDNS, $ARM, $RMBS 4. Chip Design: $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $QCOM 5. Foundries: $TSM, Samsung Semiconductor, $SMIC 6. Memory and HBM: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, $MU 7. Packaging and OSAT: ASE Technology, $AMKR, JCET Group 8. Server and Rack Integration: $SMCI, $DELL, $HPE, Foxconn 9. Networking Silicon: $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO, $ANET 10. Photonics and Optical Components: Ayar Labs, $ALAB, $CRDO, $COHR, $LITE 11. Power, Thermal management and Grid: $VRT, $MOD, $NVT, $SU.PA, $IREN, $CIFR 12. Hyperscalers: $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META 13. AI Storage, platforms and Data: VAST data, Weka, NetAPP, $PLTR, Blue Yonder, $KXSCF The article covers it all.

@mrmikeinvestingJan 22, 2026 · 3:08 AM

These are the top 6 chip stocks recommended by Bank of America that’ll lead the $1.2T sector: 1. Advanced Micro Devices $AMD 2. Nvidia $NVDA 3. Micron Technology $MU 4. Broadcom $AVGO 5. Lam Research $LRCX 6. Analog Devices $ADI These are some of the lowest risk investments… https://t.co/OxUsaqkbqo

@rwang07Nov 14, 2025 · 12:25 AM

Analyst: "You did mention outside of restrictions, you are not losing share but your U.S. peer the closest one, reported much stronger China revenue growth this year, I think they're probably growing at 20% YoY. You're probably declining more than 10% YoY. So just really trying to reconcile how are you're not losing share?" $AMAT: "we're holding our share and competing well in China. And if you just take the macro number, we certainly lost share in China. I think Gary commented that if you go back to 2024, just over 10% of the market was restricted from -- for U.S. companies. And if you go to 2025, it's more than doubled. The restriction has more than doubled. So we've certainly lost share in China because a larger portion of the market is inaccessible to us." $LRCX

@rwang07Nov 3, 2025 · 1:48 AM

DRAM Capex Effect Coming. $KLAC $AMAT $LRCX $042700.KR. It is true that three memory makers raise capex for '26.

@rwang07Oct 29, 2025 · 8:16 PM

"China Q" for semicaps? 39% China rev for $KLAC and 43% for $LRCX https://t.co/9vCJ4ECeDD

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 10:00 PM

Good question by a Stifel analyst. $LRCX: "More than half of it ($8B) is coming from memory. Enterprise SSD, enterprise SSDs and high bandwidth memory.

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 9:55 PM

$LRCX "data center WFE formula" = $100B AI DC investment equals to $8B WFE spending. https://t.co/qi6NsFpyss

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 9:52 PM

Very interesting. So next year, China will decline significantly — unsurprisingly (given the "China normalization" comment from other semicaps). However, $LRCX management mentioned that global multinationals are expected to more than offset those China headwinds. https://t.co/J4qioPOJ9z

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 9:30 PM

$LRCX: But I guess I would just say that, you know, you have to remember that as fabs get built and equipment is brought in, there often are timing issues. And so it's a little bit hard to to speak to any near-term. Like outperformance underperformance with certainty because it depends on what other what other suppliers are going to be doing. And when they're shipping what their lead times are. But what we can say with quite a bit of confidence, and I think we laid it out at our Investor Day earlier this year, is that over the longer term? $LRCX markets etch and deposition will outgrow WFR because of nearly every trend that's taking place. Technology wise in semiconductor manufacturing. Whether that's 3D devices in foundry logic, in Nand, whether it's smaller, higher aspect ratio devices, and stacking using advanced packaging and Dram, whether it's advanced packaging itself. They are all deposition and etch intensive products, and therefore, I think over the longer term, confidence to outperform is very high.

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 9:22 PM

How much of Taiwan's 19% share of revenue for $LRCX was from $MU and $TSM this Q lol https://t.co/4b1wzGf0ur

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 9:19 PM

Key drivers behind $LRCX's growth in foundry and memory. $LRCX: "Foundry accounted for 60% of our systems revenue in the September quarter, up from 52% in the June quarter. This marks our third consecutive record quarter, underscoring the strength of our strategic focus and execution in foundry. Foundry strength came from investments at the leading edge. In addition to mature node spending in China. Memory was 34% of systems revenue, which was down from 41% in the prior quarter. Due to the timing of customer investment plans within memory, nonvolatile memory contributed 18% of our systems revenue, which was down from 27% in the June quarter.

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 9:15 PM

$LRCX CEO Tim Archer: "The WFE spending in calendar year 2025 is shaping up to be slightly better than our prior view of $105 billion, predominantly due to better than expected high bandwidth memory, or HBM-related investments. As we look ahead, we see a robust setup for equipment spending in calendar year 2026. AI-related demand should support sustained strength in leading-edge foundry logic and DRAM, as well as continued NAND upgrade spending"

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 9:11 PM

$LRCX CEO Tim Archer: I will share a few areas of strength we are seeing in NAND. Customers are continuing to upgrade existing fabs to meet the need for higher layer count, higher performance devices. We have estimated that these conversions will require $40 billion of spending over the next several years, and as we have previously said, NAND should capture a high percentage of this conversion spend due to our large installed base position. Our upgrades business is projected to remain strong into 2026 as Nand bit demand looks to be trending higher than prior expectations. Device makers have already announced enterprise grade SSDs, with 256TB of storage capacity to satisfy growing data center demand for high capacity. Storage. Availability of clean room space will likely act as a limiter to the pace of Nand supply growth, but we believe that capacity additions to meet rising demand may be needed sooner than previously thought.

@rwang07Oct 22, 2025 · 8:42 PM

$LRCX nice Q following the last good one

@rwang07Oct 16, 2025 · 1:26 PM

3) WFE companies are rather familiar (including Deposition (CVD/PVD), Lithography, Etch, Implantation, CMP/Polishing). Companies includes: TEL, $AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML, Canon, Sumitomo, ULVAC.

@rwang07Sep 22, 2025 · 9:57 AM

Promise this is my last self-promotion on this piece (should be a good Monday read tho). $INTC $ALAB $NVDA $ARM $LRCX $SNPS $AMAT $TSM