$ALMU — FinTwit mentions on Surfaced

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$ALMU

Aeluma

$ALMU

Aeluma

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About this stock

$ALMU has generated 174 mentions from 15 distinct FinTwit voices over the past 12 months, with discussion beginning on 2025-08-29. The most active voice discussing the ticker is @crux_capital_ (Gaetano) with 76 mentions, followed by @bullofbritain with 23 mentions and @almacap114204 (AlmaCap) with 18 mentions. The discourse centers primarily on semiconductor and optical networking themes. Most recent mentions cluster around mid-2026, with @almacap114204 including $ALMU in a watchlist of semiconductor opportunities on 2026-07-07, and @crux_capital_ referencing it as a higher-execution-risk play within the optical and coherent transport space compared to more established competitors.

Discussion of $ALMU emphasizes the company's potential within the indium phosphide (InP) ecosystem and its possible role as a 'release valve' for industry demand. @crux_capital_ noted on 2026-06-16 that "With all the actions being taken around InP I can only imagine the types of interest / conversations that $ALMU is having," while acknowledging the company remains early-stage relative to competitors. Voices acknowledge greater execution risk at $ALMU compared to established optical players, positioning it alongside other emerging semiconductor names like $AAOI, $SIVE, and $IQE rather than as a core portfolio holding at this stage of company maturity.

AI-generated from tracked posts · updated Sep 2, 2026

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@crux_capital_Jun 16, 2026 · 4:58 AM

With all the actions being taken around InP I can only imagine the types of interest / conversations that $ALMU is having If only they were 2 years further along… They have the potential to be a ‘release valve’ for this industry if they are able to commercialize and scale Would really like to see some qualifications and orders

@cobraalertsMay 11, 2026 · 2:19 PM

With this semi theme this could squeeze crazy $ALMU

@crux_capital_May 5, 2026 · 3:49 PM

$ALMU Is a very exciting stock, to say the least There is massive upside potential if they can commercialize successfully And massive downside risk if they cannot When people ask me what stock I own that I think could have the biggest returns, my answer is almost always $ALMU But the timeline is important to understand There will be plenty of volatility along the way And the path is far from certain If you are interested in understanding this company at a deeper level, please read this: https://t.co/gTq6E1G4IJ

@crux_capital_May 3, 2026 · 7:25 PM

@AUKM_42 My personal high risk/high reward would be $ALMU

@photonbullMay 3, 2026 · 3:37 PM

A small thesis on $ALMU ($460M): Aeluma is one of the few companies putting compound semiconductors on standard 200mm/300mm silicon. Quantum dot lasers, AlGaAs nonlinear photonics, InGaAs detectors. The stuff feeding CPO, VCSELs, and quantum photonic ICs. The interesting part: One of their seed investors is Shuji Nakamura, the 2014 Nobel Laureate in Physics who co-invented the efficient blue LED light. Here is why that's a big deal: Red and green LEDs existed since the 60s, but blue was the missing piece needed for white light. Big labs tried for 30+ years and failed. Nakamura cracked it at a tiny Japanese company (Nichia) using gallium nitride. That single breakthrough unlocked every white LED bulb, smartphone/TV backlight, and Blu-ray drive in existence today. The Nobel committee literally said: incandescent bulbs lit the 20th century, LEDs will light the 21st. Recent catalysts: 1. April 13: $4M+ in US gov contracts for quantum and datacom. Stock ripped +42% on the day. 2. Manufacturing partnerships with Tower Semi and Sumitomo Chemical Advanced Technology. 3. Customer list includes DARPA, NASA, Navy, DOE. Risks worth flagging: $50M ATM filed in March (dilution), heavy insider selling, pre revenue. Speculative small cap, NFA DYOR. $ALMU https://t.co/rUkDEpcnNC

@bullofbritainMay 2, 2026 · 7:49 AM

@FinnStockinger Good stuff. The $ALMU news has been very bullish, but until it proves to pass RnD. Then it will always be extrememly up and down. QD lasers will be the future 100%.

@bullofbritainApr 30, 2026 · 7:58 PM

"I expect a euphoric rally" Up 120% since. I was one of the first people to ever post about $ALMU. The recent rally basically blew up the entire bear case - They have no foundry, no backing and need to dilute hard for RnD and its too speculative. > $TSEM deal > Supplied by Sumitomo (biggest InPu supplier on the planet, dodges all geo-political risk) > Nasa funding 4mil contract (their expected 26' rev was 4-6mil) > Light / Glass becoming more mainstream > RnD phase coming online So they now have a direct foundry partner, a direct material supplier and a governmental arm backing their product after years of collaberation. The shift is happening.

@bullofbritainApr 28, 2026 · 6:13 PM

@PolarizingLit $ALMU also got a TSEM deal. It's all speculative, the reason I chose most these names are because they are already proven past RnD

@bullofbritainApr 27, 2026 · 4:01 PM

$POET being bad makes $ALMU even more bullish btw 😉

@crux_capital_Apr 22, 2026 · 5:54 PM

$ALMU The news yesterday was important Up 20% today Up 100% in a week But it goes deeper than what the headline said Doing a full writeup now on how to interpret the news, where Aeluma is at, and what their goal is Stay tuned

@photonbullApr 22, 2026 · 5:45 PM

$ALMU is now up ~50% from where I entered just a few weeks ago after the headline, and I have decided to trim this position. My thesis was to see a run similar to $LWLG fueled by the headlines and people looking for new opportunities in the photonics sector. I believe the thesis has played out and am happy with my gains here. I am derisking across my positions today as I am worried about the market being at an all time high with Iran not moving forward. Note that I am not calling for a crash here, just taking some profits. Maybe it all goes higher, maybe it doesn't. Either way, I am happy with the gains on this $ALMU trade and hope some of you caught it too. The reason $ALMU is being trimmed more than other positions is that it is a very high beta and speculative stock, so I believe it is inherently one of my 'riskier' stocks. I hope it continues to go higher for other investors!

@photonbullApr 21, 2026 · 12:06 PM

More good news for $ALMU They received a NASA award for integrated quantum dot lasers ''Quantum dot lasers are increasingly being considered for AI data center interconnect applications due to their potential for high power handling, reliability, and low noise. Beyond standalone photonic components, integrating quantum dot lasers directly on silicon addresses one of the fundamental limitations of silicon photonics, on-chip optical gain, while preserving the cost, scale, and integration advantages of CMOS manufacturing. Aeluma’s large-diameter wafer heterogeneous integration platform provides a viable path to integrated quantum dot laser solutions for high-growth markets across AI infrastructure, consumer sensing, defense and aerospace, and quantum.'' https://t.co/hZBHha5Luq

@bullofbritainApr 21, 2026 · 11:46 AM

$ALMU - some more good news. NASA have worked with Aeluma for a few years now. If quantum dotting technology goes from speculative to real, they will be the only wafer to withstand space data center build-outs and the pivot to sipho for current data centers. Aeluma hold the only patten to use this technology on 300mm wafers, which are becoming industry standard. Their main competitor Quintessent can only work on 200mm and also have a $TSEM deal. Obviously $ALMU is still a speculative pre-rnd, but looks promising atleast. https://t.co/yZAQstbC1z

@photonbullApr 14, 2026 · 9:43 AM

There is no stopping this train $ALMU just hit over $18 in premarket trading Hope some of you managed to get in with me at $13! https://t.co/L4X72VQfeq

@photonbullApr 13, 2026 · 2:21 PM

Now up 50% on the day $ALMU incredible move! https://t.co/h6aViI35lR

@almacap114204Apr 13, 2026 · 1:46 PM

$ALMU, up 37% today following TSEM and Sumitomo partnership signals it could be the $AXTI killer https://t.co/yWO0mTXhAf

@crux_capital_Apr 13, 2026 · 1:32 PM

Aeluma Secures More Than $4 Million in Contracts for Quantum Materials and Lasers $ALMU That's a relatively large R&D contract for Aeluma And with a big name like Tower in there This government funding is part of Aeluma's business model They use it to optimize their tech that will hopefully bridge the commercial gap That's the contention in the stock. If/when will they make that bridge, and how will the stock react in the waiting period? I'll work on a full writeup on my thoughts on ALMU today

@bullofbritainApr 13, 2026 · 11:49 AM

Another thing I called months ago $ALMU is finally moving away from a science project and into a real quantum dotting pipeline. These are the only technology capable of withstanding the strain of data centers in space, on top of fixing the InPu copper bottleneck and wafer fracturin with growing the light source directly on the substrates. TSEM was named dropped multiple times as a tier-1 supplier for months and its finally happened. Oversold massively. Will expect a euphoric rally now.

@photonbullApr 11, 2026 · 5:53 PM

@DVLT146025 @PepInvestStocks @KawzInvests Yeah it seems like the best way to invest in $ALMU is to sit it out or for a big partnership/order etc. to remove a lot of risks

@photonbullMar 16, 2026 · 2:28 PM

@PepInvestStocks $ALMU certainly an impressive technology stack and management team, I am planning to enter when commercialization begins

@investmentguru_Mar 12, 2026 · 11:12 AM

$ALMU – Small Cap to Watch in the Photonics / AI Infrastructure Space $ALMU is an emerging semiconductor company focused on compound semiconductor technology integrated with silicon, targeting several high-growth markets. Their technology is being developed for: • AI data center photonics • LiDAR and sensing • Defense & aerospace applications • Quantum computing With the massive buildout happening in AI infrastructure, photonics and optical technologies are becoming increasingly important for high-speed data transfer inside data centers. • Exposure to the photonics / optical semiconductor theme • Work with U.S. government and defense programs • Small market cap, which can lead to big moves when momentum enters Still an early-stage company with small revenue, so this remains a higher-risk, higher-reward play. If the AI photonics theme continues gaining momentum, $ALMU could become one of the small-cap names investors start paying attention to. Definitely one to keep on the watchlist. DYOR

@crux_capital_Mar 8, 2026 · 7:26 PM

My strategy for investing in early-stage companies... I get lots of questions about companies like $POET $LWLG $ALMU etc. These companies appeal to many investors becuase they are early. Sometimes being early comes at a cost. You face execution risk Commercialization risk Dilution risk But if you pick a long ter winner, you get exposed to significant upside. There are really two ways to play these companies. You can either position yourself before the inflection point (typically this is proof of commercialization). Or you wait until you get this proof and then take a position. There is no 'right' way to do it necessarily. It's just dependent on the level of risk you want. Being earlier carries more risk but more potential upside. So, how do I position my portfolio to have exposure to these earlier, higher-risk companies? If you haven't read my tagged post yet, go read it. My strategy here really isn't that different. It just falls earlier on the time line. I will use $POET as an example today because I know many people have followed me for that coverage My process so far has looked like this: I first heard about $POET early last summer. I was compelled by the science the more I researched, and I saw potential in the optics supercycle that was to come. So I took a starter position. Then every time they hit certain milestones that felt like progress, I bought some more. Some concrete examples of this for me were the following: - Their $5M purchase order - Partnering with QCi for 3.2T - Celestial AI being acquired by Marvell Every subsequent milestone the company gets more 'de-risked', I increase my position size, regardless of the share price. Obviously I want to time my buys well, but for theses companies if the thesis is right it won't matter if I'm buying at 6 or 5. Now here is the other reality. If they don't hit milestones, then I trim my position. This hasn't happened yet, but here are some milestones I am watching: - Additional significant dilution without meaningful business updates prior - 5m purchase order delayed - Lack of additional orders for CY26 This is generally how I approach these companies at this stage. Belief in the tech, the story, and the management is what gets me in the door. Then execution is what keeps me in. For every company I track, I have a catalyst & milestone calendar that I track that keeps me locked in and helps me build conviction over time Hope you found this helpful and let's you see into my brain a bit! This is just for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Again, investing in pre-commercial companies carries significant risk.

@crux_capital_Mar 4, 2026 · 2:03 AM

@NickNemo17 @martijnde_boer Hey Nick, Alright so I was really happy to see you ask this question because this is what is so exciting about $ALMU and is a core part of the investment opportunity that I buy in to. Before digging into the specifics, I think it is important to address the premise of your question directly. The comparison between Aeluma’s R&D budget and the budgets of large photonics companies like Coherent Corp. or Lumentum Holdings assumes that Aeluma is trying to compete with them using the same operating model. As you know, it is not. Those companies spend hundreds of millions of dollars annually because they operate large, diversified photonics businesses. Their R&D budgets support dozens of product lines, vertically integrated manufacturing infrastructure, reliability labs, packaging technologies, and large global engineering organizations. Aeluma is pursuing a fundamentally different strategy. They are not attempting to build a vertically integrated photonics manufacturer that competes with incumbents on manufacturing footprint or R&D scale. Instead, their focus is extremely narrow in developing a specific materials platform that enables compound semiconductors to be integrated directly onto large-diameter silicon wafers. In this model, the value is created in the materials process and intellectual property, not in owning massive fabrication capacity. Once the process is proven and transferred, the heavy manufacturing is handled by existing silicon foundries and manufacturing partners that already operate at global scale. So the relevant question (and where the legitimate bear case could lie) is not whether Aeluma can outspend companies like Coherent or Lumentum on R&D. The relevant question is whether their materials integration process works, whether it can be transferred to production fabs, and whether customers adopt it. With that context, let's look at their operational strategy. I will be using many quotes directly from management as that is defensible and what we publicly know. Alright lets dig in... 1 - Fab Light Strategy They run a fab-light strategy with the goal of ‘infinite’ foundry capacity. Aeluma does not manufacture the entire chip. They state: "We want to be completely fabless". The reason they are currently fab light rather than completely fabless is because the materials deposition step is their core IP, which they "were not ready to transfer or share with a partner" immediately. Instead, their process is to “put the materials down on the substrates and then we send our substrates to our our foundry partners". Because they use standard silicon platforms, they note that "our fab partners have arguably infinite volume". 2 - Commercial Grade Equipment To ensure their small facility can actually transfer processes to massive foundries, Aeluma uses commercial-grade equipment rather than standard university lab tools. "We we've got this R&D site that happens to have a production scale tool that can deposit compound semis on up to a 300 mm substrate". "because we're using production scale tools that are not very different than what the big epi houses have. You could see why it's so easy for us to transfer". They consider themselves the bridge "from lab to fab," allowing them to get the technology "to this level of maturation so you know so that customers and investors are convinced that that production can start relatively soon". 3 - Yields at scale They have proven yields during qualification but are still working on high-volume metrics. They state that "Chips are yielding and performing as we qualify our processes for target markets". Klamkin also notes they have run a "repeatable process x times through a prime foundry partner" and have "already transferred that to more than one foundry. So, so our fabs are already running our processes that we developed internally". They do not claim to have perfected massive yield at scale yet. CFO Chris Stewart explicitly notes that as they bulk up their team to commercialize, they are actively working on "how do you get yields to where they need to be and how do you get the cost where it needs to be". 4 - Outsourcing Material Deposition Aeluma acknowledges their own facility is a constraint for massive scale: "the only bottleneck for large volume is how many of those wafers can we produce?". To solve this without spending hundreds of millions to build their own massive facility, they are outsourcing this final internal step: "we're at a stage where we feel comfortable enough with one of our partners to transfer our process and IP so that they can ramp it up". "Think of a place that has 20, 30, 40 MOCVDs. They're going to be able to ramp up quicker. They're going to be able to do it more cost- effectively than we can". "If and when that happens... then our capacity is infinite. There is no bottleneck for the wafer production or the fab". 5 - Automating the Testing for Scale To handle the scale of wafers coming back from their foundry partners with a small team, they upgraded their equipment. ” more and more wafers are coming back from our fabs now, and we need automated systems to measure them". “We recently procured some real nice automated and semi-automated wafer probes... 6 in, 8 in, 12in wafer probers... full automation that can measure many wafers in a day. We couldn't do that before". 6 - Limiting Scope to the Chip Level & Licensing for Mass Markets To avoid massive capital expenditures, they restrict how much of the final product they build: "We're not going any higher than chip level. So we sell wafers... and we can sell chips and we can support a pretty substantial volume with the supply chain we've already set up". For the massive volumes required by mobile phones, they do not plan to manufacture the product at all. "because of the sheer scale it could very well be that it's more of a licensing revenue opportunity... you're very likely transferring technology to large volume manufacturers and it's licensing". I hope this provides some additional insight into the business model that Aeluma operates and answers your questions.

@crux_capital_Mar 3, 2026 · 5:28 PM

I laid out this hypothesis last week for $LITE & $ALMU The Lumentum chat yesterday gave some more insight Let's dig into it Lumentum is currently facing a massive supply-demand imbalance and is completely sold out of its indium phosphide laser capacity. Because of the intense demand for CPO, Lumentum had to shift its U.K. flex fab away from producing photodiodes and receive technology, leaving them with the capacity to only produce a "little bit of PD (photodiodes)". At the same time, Lumentum also said that they recognize the untapped financial and strategic value of this receive technology market. Aeluma, meanwhile, is actively avoiding the laser market to focus entirely on the industry bottleneck for high-speed detectors. Aeluma could step in to supply the 50 to 100 GHz commercial detectors that Lumentum no longer has the fab capacity to prioritize in a meaningful way. Aeluma’s recent hire, Senior VP of Business Development Bouch Nassar, previously oversaw the high-speed receiver product lines at Lumentum (formerly JDS Uniphase). This deep institutional knowledge of Lumentum’s receiver architecture and market needs gives Aeluma a distinct advantage in designing detectors that integrate seamlessly with Lumentum's components. Also, Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston explicitly noted that the company has strong currency for M&A and would "like to do that" specifically to "bring in more components" that are strategic to their business. At the same time, Aeluma CEO Jonathan Klamkin stated the company is evaluating "strategic opportunities to accelerate our growth" and is open to multiple paths to market, including supply chain partnerships and licensing. Because Lumentum is hyper-focused on laser execution but still needs receive technology for its modules, Aeluma represents an ideal strategic component partner or potential acquisition target. Again, not a guarantee, no public disclosures of a relationship between companies or anything like that. Just a thought process that directionally makes sense to me and that I will be tracking and wanted to share.

@bullofbritainMar 2, 2026 · 3:43 PM

$ALMU - The news of NVDA investing 2 billion in COHR, to focus on SILICON BASED PHOTNICS, it is exactly why $AXTI was never going to win this race. Jensen already knows copper is cooked. $AXTI should never be at these levels based on the last ER they had. Permits being straight up DECLINED, rather than postponed and horrendous balance sheet. Light is the only source left to fix this bottleneck. They are not looking for short term solutions when they have the money to evolve the entire space for good. Long light, fuck copper

@crux_capital_Mar 1, 2026 · 3:43 AM

@HyperTechInvest Good question! For me I like to be early with a starter and then DCA as the conviction builds. I'd rather be too early than too late. But that being said, I leave money on the sidelines for certain progress markers. $Poet receiving their 5m order was one. $Almu latest earnings call was another. So at each milestone I think shows progress, I take some more. Once either one gets a significant 1) order or 2) partner, they will see lots of inflow IMO But the frustrating part about getting in early is dilution (so far only on POET side, but ALMU I hope will raise soon because that would show a greater inflection).

@crux_capital_Feb 24, 2026 · 1:00 PM

$LITE has an InP problem that $ALMU could help mitigate. A thought experiment worth working through... Despite aggressively front-loading a 40% capacity expansion, Lumentum’s Indium Phosphide (InP) wafer fabs remain entirely maxed out. Even with new capacity coming online, the supply-demand imbalance has actually widened, leaving the company under-shipping customer demand by roughly 30%. Furthermore, every bit of their capacity is currently locked up in long-term agreements through the end of 2027. Their EML lasers, CW lasers, and high-speed photodetectors all depend on InP substrates and right now every qualified supplier is fully booked. This is not purely a China problem like we've been talking about with $AXTI. It is a structural supply problem across every geography, with a geopolitical layer on top that makes it less predictable. Lumentum's moat is in EMLs. They're the GOAT. That is where the pricing power is. Hyperscalers have secured so much capacity that Lumentum's entire EML output is now spoken for in strict Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) running through the end of 2027. Photodetectors are a necessary companion product but not where the competitive differentiation is the strongest. Aeluma is developing InGaAs photodetectors on 300mm silicon. No InP required. Same material performance. Far greater manufacturing capacity available. If Aeluma demonstrates 200G detector performance at volume which they have not publicly done yet, though the Navy contract with a major global interconnect manufacturer as subcontractor suggests the commercial interest is real, Lumentum faces a legitimate strategic question. Keep consuming constrained InP capacity on detectors, or source that component from a platform that doesn't touch InP and redirect that capacity toward EMLs where the margin is strongest. The entry point is probably a supply agreement. Licensing or acquisition follows if the technology proves out. If that strategic alignment feels like a stretch, consider that Aeluma just hired Bouch Nassar to run their go-to-market strategy. His previous gig was at Lumentum, where he ran the exact high-speed receiver product lines we are talking about. Hmm. None of this is near-term. But the $AXTI call just confirmed the constraint is getting worse. That changes how urgently a company like Lumentum needs to think about this. Hypothesis, not a prediction. Not financial advice.

@crux_capital_Feb 23, 2026 · 1:00 AM

The most bullish data point for $ALMU Aeluma this week went largely unnoticed It was the $AXTI call. The market sees and feel the InP wafer constraint. But is under appreciating a potential solution. Let's dig into why I think this is the case. AXT management said demand for InP substrates is going up "three, four, five times over the next four or five years." Their backlog is at all-time highs. They are getting permit denials from MOFCOM for the first time ever. CEOs are flying in personally to talk about capacity. The whole downstream data center optical stack like EML lasers, CW lasers, high-speed detectors, 800G and 1.6T transceivers, runs on InP substrates and there is no fast fix inside the existing supply chain. Every one of those statements is a tailwind for a company building the alternative. Aeluma's platform grows InGaAs, the benchmark material for high-speed photodetectors, directly on large-diameter silicon wafers. 200-300mm (8-12in.) CMOS-compatible. Mainstream fab-processable. No InP substrate required. More chips per wafer, lower cost per unit, same material performance. The constraint is structural and geopolitical. Aeluma's pitch gets stronger every quarter it persists. CEO Jonathan Klamkin said on their earnings call two weeks ago: "there appears to be a bottleneck in the industry for some of these high-performance components." He is talking about the receiver side, high-speed InGaAs photodetectors for 800G and 1.6T transceivers. The same demand wave AXT is describing is squeezing detector supply alongside laser supply. On Aeluma's platform, that detector doesn't touch InP at all. Customer conversations have already shifted "from interest and evaluation to pricing and planning." Where does Aeluma stand today? Pre-commercial. $1.3M last quarter, mostly government contracts. Small initial product orders coming in this quarter across multiple markets. The Navy contract already involves a major global interconnect manufacturer as a subcontractor. Klamkin said manufacturing partnership news will unfold going into 2026. Watch for that announcement. So why does this matter for valuation? Klamkin laid out three monetization paths: manufacturing through partners, process transfer to mature manufacturers, and licensing. Those paths have very different value events. Manufacturing builds recurring revenue. Process transfer and licensing are transaction events with upfront payments, royalty streams, acquisition conversations. A company with a decade of proprietary IP in a supply chain hyperscalers are actively trying to de-risk does not stay a microcap forever if the technology proves out. The AXT call told you the constraint is getting worse, faster, and with a geopolitical dimension that won't resolve quickly. That is exactly the environment where someone building the structural alternative gets noticed. That is why I'm positioned now, even though it's early. A quick note on China exposure. Aeluma escapes the InP substrate bottleneck specifically. They don't escape all raw material risk. InGaAs requires indium and gallium, both subject to Chinese export controls. Their exposure sits at a less acute point in the control regime than pure InP manufacturers, but it exists. Meaningfully reduced, not eliminated. Not financial advice. Do your own research. Pre-commercial tech company with real execution risk. Full writeup coming soon.

@crux_capital_Feb 21, 2026 · 10:39 PM

@TheBigDaddyTuna $ALMU Aeluma plays in a few parts of the stack. The whole supply chain above runs on InP substrates. Small, brittle, expensive, geopolitically constrained. Aeluma's platform grows the same high-performance InGaAs material used in data center photodetectors directly onto large-diameter silicon wafers instead. Up to 12 inches. No InP substrate required. That one change has ripple effects down the stack. Step 3 can happen in a mainstream semiconductor fab instead of a specialized photonics facility, removing one of the biggest capacity bottlenecks in the chain. Step 4 you get roughly 16x more chips per wafer than on 3-inch InP, or 4x versus Coherent's cutting-edge 6-inch. Step 5 assembly gets access to advanced packaging techniques, like the copper pillar interconnects standard in modern chip manufacturing, that are unavailable to conventional InP substrates simply because the tooling ecosystem was built around large-diameter silicon wafers and nothing else. They're pre-commercial at scale, so not in this supply chain yet. But every constraint highlighted in this stack from substrate scarcity, limited fabs, yield challenges to packaging limitations is structurally addressed by their approach. The worse the InP squeeze gets, the stronger their pitch becomes IMO.

@crux_capital_Feb 20, 2026 · 1:03 PM

🚨Photonics investors! Read this post about $AXTI Demand. Demand. Demand. That's the story over and over. No one can supply enough to meet the demand needed The substrate layer can't provide enough wafers and the companies using the wafers can't manufacture enough chips for the hyperscalers For those of you that aren't familiar with the supply chain and process, here is a very simple breakdown: - Companies source raw materials like indium and phosphorus - These materials get refined, synthesized into InP crystal, and sliced into wafers - These wafers are sold to companies like Coherent and Lumentum - These companies grow epitaxial layers on the wafers and fabricate laser chips - Those chips either get packaged into transceivers by the laser companies themselves, or sold to pure-play module makers like Luxshare and Innolight who build their own - These transceivers get deployed into data centers So if the raw material/substrate layer is constrained, everyone downstream feels it. And that's where AXT sits. They can't supply enough to meet demand. But here's what makes this even more interesting. AXT's constraint right now isn't just manufacturing capacity. They have finished goods sitting in their cleanroom ready to ship. The problem is Chinese export permits. AXT manufactures through their Chinese subsidiary Tongmei, which means every shipment out of the country requires a license from China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). That process has become unpredictable. They received permit denials in Q4. This is a geopolitical chokepoint sitting right in the middle of the global AI infrastructure buildout. And when AXT can't ship, there's no easy fix. Sumitomo Electric and JX are the main alternatives, but both are running constrained and fully booked. There is no spare capacity sitting on a shelf somewhere waiting to be allocated. The constraint is real and structural. I think it's easy to think the photonics trade is overextended because of some stock charts. But the photonics trade is really under supplied. Those are very different things. Don't take my word for it, let's look at what AXT management is saying: "...we definitely have more orders than we can actually... manufacture now. As we add the capacity, we're counting on who we can supply to." "people are telling us that their demand's gonna be going up three, four, five over the next four or five years. And, you know, there's not – how many [qualified] suppliers are there? You know the answer to that." (For context: Sumitomo Electric and AXT are the two main players. The point isn't the exact number, it's that the number of suppliers who can meet Tier One quality and volume requirements is extremely small) "...every customer is worried about getting enough for their needs. There's a general concern where the meetings we've had this week, we're not meeting with the purchasing manager, we're meeting with CEOs and general managers. They all wanna talk to Morris about capacity and about future growth." "...we are definitely talking about long-term supply agreements with a number of customers right now, and we are planning our business according to those long-term supply agreements. We're seeing forecasts out beyond 2030 for many of these customers." AXT is in a very powerful position. If they ramp capacity like they say they can, and permits get eased up, there is a lot of money on the table. There are also two other companies worth watching closely in the context of everything above. $COHR Coherent's 6-inch InP transition, completed a full year ahead of schedule, means they get roughly 4x the devices per wafer, dramatically reducing how much substrate they need per unit of output. At the exact moment substrate supply is most constrained and most geopolitically uncertain, they've systematically reduced their exposure to it. Full post coming soon. And then there's $ALMU Aeluma, who is building InGaAs on 300mm silicon wafers, an approach that sidesteps the InP substrate dependency entirely. The worse this constraint gets industry-wide, the more interesting their platform becomes. Full post coming on that one too. The stack is constrained top to bottom. The demand isn't slowing. And the companies that saw this coming are already positioned.

@crux_capital_Feb 15, 2026 · 4:10 PM

$ALMU One of my only 'red' photonics positions At current levels, I believe Aeluma provides significant upside potential It still has lots to prove of course and there is risk in its early stage nature But as I covered in the quoted post below, every update we've got from them recently is showing that they are in a pivotal stage This is a buy on every dip to the blue zone for me. Keep in mind, this is a 2030 holding for me (unless something breaks in the mean time) And this is one of the few names in the Photonics space that I am in the red on my position. But if they execute the way I think they can, in 4 years things will look much different Not financial advice, do your own diligence. Please understand the risks of a commercial tech company before

@crux_capital_Feb 13, 2026 · 9:03 PM

$ALMU Going After Detectors Management has explicitly stated that they do not intend to compete in the high-volume laser market in the near term While there is a shortage of lasers in the industry, there are already many established players who can build them and that's not where their time will be best spent They are prioritizing high-speed detectors (100G-200G) because these are currently "high-value" components that sell for several dollars each, rather than cents. They believe their platform allows them to win on price in this specific category. This is a massive signal of capital discipline. Instead of a race to the bottom in a commoditized laser market against incumbents like $COHR, Aeluma is playing where they have a structural cost advantage. By leveraging 300mm silicon wafers, they can undercut traditional InGaAs manufacturing costs while hitting the 100 GHz performance targets needed for next-gen AI clusters.

@bullofbritainFeb 11, 2026 · 9:44 PM

$ALMU Adj. EPS: $(0.04) Vs. Est: $(0.05) Revenue Sales: $1.30M Vs. Est: $1.40M "RFSUNY contract to integrate quantum dot lasers into the AIM Photonics 300mm silicon photonics platform" "The second quarter marked another big step forward for Aeluma as we gear up for commercialization" “We ramped engagements across our target markets and increased visibility at a major industry conference. We are experiencing growing and sustained interest in Aeluma as our technology takes shape and market demand increases across mobile, data centers, and defense.” "Delighted with the performance, quality, and yield of wafers being tested" Previous quarters he talked about ramping wafer runs. Now he's talking about yield and quality results being positive. Cash went UP from $38.1M to $38.6M "Product roadmap being driven by continued progress in target commercial markets" This is a subtle shift from Q1 guidance language which said "immediate near term focus on defense and aerospace, and photonics for AI infrastructure driving our product roadmap." Now mobile and consumer electronics is back in the priority list alongside AI and defense. Suggests they're getting traction signals from the mobile/consumer side again. Revenue missed and no foundry announcement, that'll disappoint some people. But if you read between the lines, this is a company quietly checking boxes before making noise. The real shift this quarter is the language moving from "customer engagements" to "increasing requests for price quotations" and "taking sales orders." That's commercial pipeline progression. Pair that with unnamed additional award notices they haven't disclosed yet. What matters is whether the foundry qualification, customer pipeline, and goto market team come together in the back half of FY2026. Everything in this report says they're on track for that. $4-6M Revenue still expected for FY2026

@bullofbritainFeb 10, 2026 · 5:55 PM

$ALMU - Recent news and earnings prediction Bouchaib Nessar is a serious commercial operator, not a lab guy. His track record at SCD transforming a niche imaging sensor supplier into one of the largest US infrared sensor suppliers for defense is exactly the kind of execution $ALMU needs to bridge the gap between technology and revenue. The Lumentum pedigree in high-speed receivers and Princeton Lightwave experience in lasers and quantum sensors maps almost perfectly onto ALMU's target markets. Klamkin: "Aeluma has seen an increase in requests for pricing and quotation, and has begun taking sales orders." He quantifies it as relatively small but this is the first explicit confirmation that $ALMU is transitioning from an R&D stage company to one actually booking revenue. The goto market focus areas he's been assigned are data center interconnects for AI, mobile imaging sensors, and defense photonics, which align directly with the highest value segments of the indium phosphide supply chain thesis. Hiring a dedicated SVP of BD & Product signals the board believes there's enough pipeline to justify the overhead, which at a company this small is a meaningful capital allocation decision. EARNINGS PREDICTION "Klamkin said 8 months ago they'd announce a foundry partner 'within months'" - they've been ramping wafer runs 5x, today they hired a heavyweight commercial leader, and Klamkin just confirmed they're taking sales orders. The foundry announcement feels imminent. Option 1: Klamkin made it very clear he wants a US-based pipeline to mitigate geopolitical risk. My prediction is that there were talks with SkyWater for a partnership. Which would align as the reason the fab deal has taken longer than "few months" as they recently got bought out. So $ALMU went for the next option. Option 2: Klamkin: "We currently work with multiple U.S.-based fabs, including one well-known large-volume pure-play foundry." In a EE Times Interview, he name dropped TSMC, Tower, Samsung, and AIM Photonics. Another contender would be GlobalFoundries. Based on their recent expansion of employment by 75% and wafer expansion by "nearly fivefold" in a single quarter and started booking orders. I expect a deal has already been reached and we're seeing the signs of it. "You'll probably see announcements about who our fab and manufacturing partners are before we say who the end customer is." a signal on how far along the deal is or a bigger guidance on who their sales orders are for. Based on what Tier 1 or 2 supplier they announce, it will be easier to narrow down the end-customer and what TAM they are going to target first. $ALMU guided $4-6M for FY2026. Based on today's news, a Q2 uptick seems likely. But I want to see if any commercial revenue starts showing up next to the contract money. Don't expect a blowout number yet. Watch for the revenue mix shifting. They closed FY2025 with $15.7M and no debt. I'll be curious about the burn rate, based on recent hiring spree and equipment acquisition. If they're still above $12-13M they're comfortable through to commercialization without dilution. Lastly, last call it was "20 active customer engagements." I'm expecting that number jumps materially. which would confirm the pipeline is building ahead of the foundry announcement. Hopefully we hear some language around "qualification" that's basically the last step before volume orders come in.

@bullofbritainFeb 5, 2026 · 6:16 PM

$ALMU - message to the tutes + bears. $38M cash, zero debt, and 10+ years of runway at current burn? The sell-off is not only irrational, its mathematically stupid. NASA, DARPA, Navy contracts. 5x revenue growth. Capital-light fab model. Only burned $1.1M in operating cash all of FY2025. Compound semiconductors are the backbone of AI optical interconnects and quantum photonics. Panic sellers don't understand what they're selling. Best part? Even if the entire AI trade unwinds, their defense, aerospace, quantum, and mobile sensing markets don't care. The TAM exists with or without the AI hype. Stop selling things you don't understand or I will buy you out.

@bullofbritainFeb 4, 2026 · 8:42 PM

@RichardPrati Solid read. I wrote some $ALMU posts on the subject matter of employee scale, in relation to next earnings. In my opinion its a non-verbal sign, they already have an end-customer ready. They just need to prove real world testing. Which will hopefully be discussed on next ER. CEO also stated they had a foundry to be announced in "few months time" but its been 8 months. So I can only imagine it will be soon. https://t.co/bm44LdHCdM

@leveraged_catJan 29, 2026 · 8:37 PM

When you’re on a heater you trust your gut, it’s as simple as that. When you’re cold, you get defensive - just so happened that I’m hot and my gut said get defensive Things still feel “off” to me, but we did get a nice flush today, so gonna take it day by day. Energy and cash effectively my only positions right now outside of $SOLS and $ALMU which are sized down significantly at this point and fully funded from swing trades from the first 3 weeks of the year Now is when you embrace the uncertainty imho. If we’re going through a regime change, which I think we are, the most important thing you can do is be ready to be hop on the train, rather than holding the bag and missing the train

@crux_capital_Jan 27, 2026 · 5:01 PM

One of the first things that caught my attention on $ALMU Their CEO stated that it was his ambition to capture a 'majority' of their SAM (4.9B) in 2030 As I have become much more involved in researching the company over the last few months I wanted to share some of my latest additional thoughts The “majority” statement is seen as directionally consistent with platform transitions where the most efficient manufacturing regime consolidates share, but it is an aggressive endpoint that requires clear evidence of displacement. When underwriting, “majority of a $4.9B SAM” implies multi-billion dollar component revenue by 2030, which demands (i) qualification clearance, (ii) repeatable, high-yield 300mm manufacturing across lots, and (iii) commercial pull that converts into recurring purchase orders rather than one-off development work. The necessary conditions are specific: GR-468 class reliability progress for datacom components (and automotive-grade reliability where applicable), multi-lot repeatability at foundry partners, packaging/test throughput readiness, and explicit proof of conversion into unit-shipment product revenue followed by repeat POs tied to identifiable platform ramps. If those conditions start to show up in disclosures, the “majority share” claim becomes legible as a platform displacement bet; without them, it should be treated as an aspirational endpoint rather than a base-case assumption. As a shareholder, these are all metrics that I am tracking and using as checkpoints to build my position It's important to understand as well that even if Aeluma only captures 5% of that SAM, the company will be worth multiples of todays EV

@leveraged_catJan 22, 2026 · 9:04 PM

$ALMU crazy that we might revisit this trendline from above (have not redrawn since I first drew it Fall 25'). I didn't really believe it could happen but had too much respect for the unrealized PnL I forced myself to trim again, don't love TLs but sometimes the market does https://t.co/P9MNyFYkEH

@leveraged_catJan 20, 2026 · 4:25 PM

more character change in $ALMU following previous spikes higher, the stock has not seen the resiliency it is seeing today i'm out of my swing trade shares but may re-initiate the swing long, keeping a close eye also i had a dream they had a breakthrough last night 🤷‍♂️

@bullofbritainJan 15, 2026 · 6:07 PM

One last $ALMU post before hibernation. Everyone's focused on rare earths when they talk Greenland. But there's a more immediate semiconductor story hiding in plain sight. China controls the compound semiconductor supply chain through critical materials: Indium: 60% of global production Gallium: 80% of global production Germanium: 60% of global production In February 2025, China added indium phosphide to its export control list. Every InP substrate leaving China now requires a government permit. The chokepoint is real. Traditional InGaAs photodetectors are indium hogs. A single 4-inch InP wafer contains 8.8 grams of indium and 99% of that indium is in the substrate itself, not the active device layer. The thin InGaAs epitaxial layer on top? Only 0.05 grams. You're burning through critical materials just to have something to grow your device on. Aeluma flips this entirely. By depositing InGaAs directly onto silicon substrates: Indium consumption: down 95-99% (no InP substrate) Phosphorus consumption: down 100% (no InP substrate) Gallium consumption: roughly flat per device The only critical material they need is for the thin active layer itself; not hundreds of microns of expensive substrate underneath. Now here's where Greenland gets interesting. Greenland has confirmed gallium deposits. The Tanbreez mine contains one of the world's highest concentrations. Critical Metals Corp is actively drilling. The White Mountain anorthosite project is exploring gallium recovery. What Greenland doesn't have? Indium. There are no documented indium deposits anywhere on the island. Every geological survey, every critical minerals assessment, indium is conspicuously absent. This creates a strategic asymmetry. If the U.S. secures Greenland access and develops its gallium resources: Traditional InGaAs/InP manufacturers still have an indium problem Aeluma's silicon-based approach only needs gallium (which Greenland has) A Western-controlled gallium supply chain solves Aeluma's remaining critical material dependency. It does almost nothing for companies still married to InP substrates, if China plan on closing the Gallium window for good in November. There will be only one survivor.

@bullofbritainJan 11, 2026 · 9:37 AM

We are at the inflection point. $ALMU is moving from 'PhD science' to '300mm mass manufacturing.' In a world where light is the only way to break the AI wall, owning the patent on the US-based light source is the ultimate arbitrage. Own the bottleneck.

@leveraged_catJan 8, 2026 · 4:30 PM

$AXTI is a trade on bottleneck dynamics resolving favorably through export permits $ALMU is an investment in the technology that makes those bottleneck dynamics obsolete

@thevalueistDec 26, 2025 · 6:23 PM

$ALMU $LITE $COHR Aeluma: Scaling Semiconductor Integration for AI, Quantum Photonics, and Indium Phosphide Implications Aeluma, Inc. (ALMU) is an emerging semiconductor company specializing in heterogeneous integration, a process that places high-performance materials onto large-diameter silicon wafers to improve AI and quantum photonics hardware. While the firm currently relies on government-funded R&D, it is preparing for a fiscal 2026 transition toward commercial production by leveraging an asset-light foundry model. Financial results show rising revenues alongside significant net losses, leading to a valuation driven by long-term growth expectations rather than current cash flow. Technically, the company aims to solve manufacturing bottlenecks for optical interconnects and SWIR sensing by replacing expensive, small-scale substrates with scalable silicon-compatible processes. However, investors face risks including high competition, a lean executive team lacking a Chief Operating Officer, and ongoing efforts to fix internal financial reporting weaknesses. Successful commercialization depends on whether the company can translate its strong intellectual property into reliable, high-volume manufacturing yields.

@leveraged_catNov 7, 2025 · 6:18 PM

I'm long $ALMU. At the bottom of a trading range it's been in since June, with positive developments since that time. There is a lot of execution risk in the stock, but they also have potential to disrupt multiple industries $100B+ in size. For $250M MC, I like the risk reward

@leveraged_catAug 29, 2025 · 6:41 PM

$ALMU My newest position, good write-up below Impressive relative strength today They are exposed to a lot of topical themes in which they could be a major disruptor Also, TINY float (8M) and ~11% short interest, just to add some spice to the whole situation