$MTSI

@jasonl_capitalMay 24, 2026 · 11:32 PM

3. $MTSI - MACOM Technology Solutions Supplies the analog photonic semiconductors - laser drivers, TIAs, modulators - that sit at the physical interface between electrical signals and light. Hit $1B annual revenue run rate. Data center revenue surged 48% in FY25 with guidance raised to 35-40% growth going forward.

@aleabitoredditMay 17, 2026 · 1:28 AM

When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.

@aleabitoredditMay 12, 2026 · 5:47 AM

Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.

@aleabitoredditMay 11, 2026 · 11:10 AM

Not too shabby? $IQE is now up 4x since in the past 3 months. $MTSI paying off their debts does derisk the company long term. I’m curious if anyone listened anon? https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9

@investmentguru_May 9, 2026 · 3:53 PM

The Complete Semiconductor Playbook — AI Supercycle 2026 The AI trade is no longer one ticker. It’s a full stack. Here’s every layer: 💾 MEMORY $MU · $WDC · $STX · $SNDK · $AMAT · $LRCX → HBM4 = the new oil. Not a commodity anymore. Strategic infrastructure. 🔌 CONTROLLERS $RMBS · $SIMO · $ATOM · $MCHP · $ADI · $TXN → The traffic cops of every AI system. Overlooked. Undervalued. Critical. 📦 PACKAGING / TESTING $AMKR · $FORM · $CAMT · $ONTO · $COHU · $ACMR → CoWoS. HBM stacking. Chiplets. This is where chips become systems. 🧠 NEXT-GEN MEMORY $MRAM · $GSIT · $NVEC · $NLST · $CEVA → Beyond DRAM. Early-stage. Asymmetric upside when the cycle arrives. 🌐 OPTICAL / INTERCONNECT $LITE · $AAOI · $COHR · $CIEN · $MRVL · $GLW · $MTSI · $TSEM · $POET · $LWLG · $FN → The hottest sub-sector in semis right now. 800G → 1.6T. CPO is the next arms race.

@aleabitoredditMay 8, 2026 · 9:46 AM

@milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, $MTSI, and $LITE

@thevalueistMay 7, 2026 · 2:43 PM

$MTSI KEY READ-THROUGHS FROM MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS Q2 2026 EARNINGS CALL MACOM’s Q2 FY2026 call provided a broad, high-signal read-through across AI data center optical connectivity, defense electronics, LEO satellite communications, compound semiconductor supply chains, 5G infrastructure, cable access infrastructure, and select industrial end markets. The most important market message was that AI-related optical demand is accelerating materially and appears backlog-supported rather than purely speculative: MACOM raised its FY2026 data center growth outlook from 35% to 40% to over 60%, guided Q3 data center revenue to approximately 35% sequential growth, and described 1.6T demand as durable through calendar 2026 and into 2027. The second major signal was that defense electronics content growth is broadening in both the US and Europe, with MACOM’s I&D business growing 22% in the first half and management now expecting over 20% FY2026 growth. The negative read-throughs are equally important: copper interconnect adoption remains additive and TBD rather than a near-term displacement of optical; CW lasers should not yet be placed in FY2026 or FY2027 models; broad 5G RAN remains flat; and LEO satellite ramps are real but more CY2027-weighted than near-term. The call is most actionable for companies exposed to 800G/1.6T optical modules, photodetectors, transceiver manufacturing, compound semiconductor materials, defense RF/microwave content, and satellite payload/gateway electronics. AI DATA CENTER OPTICAL AND NETWORKING STRUCTURAL POSITIVE FOR 800G/1.6T OPTICAL MODULES, PHOTONICS AND TRANSCEIVER MANUFACTURING (READ-THROUGH 1) Affected companies: Coherent Corp. (COHR: US), Lumentum Holdings (LITE: US), Fabrinet (FN: US), Zhongji Innolight (300308: China), Eoptolink Technology (300502: China), Accelink Technologies (002281: China), Broadex Technologies (300548: China). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude. This is the highest-conviction cross-market read-through from the call. Call support: MACOM stated that data center revenue was $98.2 million, up approximately 14.5% sequentially, and raised its FY2026 data center revenue growth base case from 35% to 40% to over 60%. Management also guided Q3 data center revenue to approximately 35% sequential growth. The key operational comment was: “Today, our revenue growth is primarily being driven by increased pluggable optical modules and optical cable production volumes using our 800 and 1.6T PAM4 products.” Management added that “demand for our 200 gig per lane photo detectors continues to grow, supporting 800G and 1.6T optical connectivity.” Transmission mechanism: MACOM’s strength is direct evidence of accelerating production volumes in the AI optical module supply chain. MACOM is a component supplier rather than a module vendor, so its revenue acceleration implies higher unit demand and content intensity at optical module manufacturers and their assembly partners. This benefits optical transceiver manufacturers, photonic component suppliers, laser suppliers, and contract manufacturers exposed to 800G and 1.6T ramps. Fabrinet benefits through module assembly volumes. Coherent and Lumentum benefit through lasers, photonics, and optical components. Chinese module vendors benefit if they are participating in the same hyperscaler 800G/1.6T production ramps, though MACOM did not disclose specific customer names. Near-term trading catalyst: Positive estimate and sentiment catalyst for optical module and component suppliers exposed to 800G/1.6T as investors re-underwrite the scale and duration of the AI optical cycle. Longer-duration fundamental shift: AI cluster architecture is increasing optical connectivity intensity across scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across networks, expanding the served market for high-speed optical components beyond a normal data center transceiver refresh. POSITIVE READ-THROUGH TO AI NETWORKING SILICON AND SYSTEMS, BUT THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR OPTICAL THAN COMPUTE (READ-THROUGH 2) Affected companies: Broadcom (AVGO: US), Marvell Technology (MRVL: US), Arista Networks (ANET: US), NVIDIA (NVDA: US), Cisco Systems (CSCO: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, medium to high magnitude for AI networking suppliers; positive but lower incremental magnitude for broad AI compute beneficiaries already priced for strong hyperscaler capex. Call support: Management said, “Based on customer engagements and general market trends, we expect 1.6T deployments inside the data center to continue to be strong throughout calendar 2026.” In Q&A, MACOM said 1.6T is “the main event today” and is expected to continue through fiscal/calendar 2026 “and even into ’27.” Management also stated that revenue is now present across “scale-up, scale-out and scale across,” and later said, “The data center, we’re not expecting a slowdown. The hyperscalers continue to invest. That’s clear.” Transmission mechanism: The read-through is that hyperscaler AI capex is continuing to move from compute-only spend into network fabric densification. Faster optical links require higher-radix switches, custom networking silicon, retimers, optical DSPs, NICs, cables, and switching systems. Broadcom and Marvell are exposed through switching silicon, custom silicon, and optical/electro-optical content. Arista benefits from higher AI networking system demand. NVIDIA benefits indirectly through continued hyperscaler AI infrastructure intensity, but MACOM’s data point is more specific to networking than GPUs. Cisco benefits to the extent AI Ethernet and high-speed data center networking demand broadens beyond the most concentrated hyperscaler deployments. Near-term trading catalyst: Positive for AI networking estimate durability and for the view that networking bottlenecks remain an investable theme through 2026. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Network bandwidth per accelerator and per rack is structurally rising, creating a multi-year content tailwind for high-speed switching, optical interconnect, and data center networking systems. COPPER INTERCONNECT EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE TEMPERED NEAR TERM; OPTICAL REMAINS THE DOMINANT REVENUE DRIVER (READ-THROUGH 3) Affected companies: Credo Technology Group (CRDO: US), Astera Labs (ALAB: US), Amphenol (APH: US), TE Connectivity (TEL: US), Broadcom (AVGO: US), Marvell Technology (MRVL: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Mixed. Near-term negative, medium magnitude for copper-centric trading narratives; longer-duration positive, low to medium magnitude for companies with credible active copper cable, linear equalizer, retimer, and electrical interconnect exposure. Call support: MACOM said it is “very active with our equalizer portfolio” and is pursuing equalizers for 1.6T, PCIe, and other applications closer to compute. However, when asked whether copper is “the next big thing,” management responded: “I would put it in the category of a TBD,” adding that MACOM is seeing “real demand, real hardware, real production ramps on the optical side and that is certainly the vast majority of our revenue today.” Management described electrified cable as “a great opportunity” that “will be additive in the future.” Transmission mechanism: The call validates copper as a future opportunity but rejects a near-term thesis that active copper or linear equalization is displacing optical at scale today. This matters for Credo and Astera because both are exposed to high-speed electrical connectivity narratives, though their revenue bases and product mixes differ. It also matters for Amphenol and TE Connectivity because cable and connector investors may be extrapolating faster active/electrical cable adoption. The transmission is through timing and mix: optical production is already scaling materially, while copper remains in engagement and use-case development. Near-term trading catalyst: Negative for stocks whose near-term multiple expansion depends on imminent large-scale copper displacement of optical links. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Still positive for electrical interconnect content over time, particularly around rack-scale architectures, active copper cables, PCIe connectivity, and compute-adjacent links, but adoption cadence remains uncertain. CW LASER DEMAND IS REAL, BUT QUALIFICATION RISK PUSHES MATERIAL REVENUE OUTSIDE NEAR-TERM MODELS (READ-THROUGH 4) Affected companies: Lumentum Holdings (LITE: US), Coherent Corp. (COHR: US), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Mixed. Positive, medium magnitude for established qualified laser suppliers; negative, medium magnitude for late entrants or investors assuming broad new CW laser revenue in FY2026 or FY2027. Call support: MACOM said customers have tested and validated optical performance of its CW lasers, but the company is still “dialing-in a process of record” and optimizing reliability. Management was explicit: “I would at this stage, not put your CW laser in your models, certainly not for fiscal ’26 or I would say even ’27.” Management also described the laser as “the weakest link” in these systems and noted that internal reliability work, module qualification, and hyperscaler qualification still have to occur. Transmission mechanism: The read-through is that CW laser demand for silicon photonics and future optical architectures is structurally attractive, but qualification cycles remain long and reliability-gated. Incumbents with qualified manufacturing platforms and customer approvals should retain a near-term advantage. Lumentum and Coherent benefit if hyperscalers need reliable, qualified CW/high-power laser sources before newer entrants reach scale. Applied Optoelectronics benefits only where it has relevant qualified laser or module exposure; otherwise, the call is a reminder that optical performance alone does not create revenue without reliability and qualification. Near-term trading catalyst: Negative for speculative CW laser revenue assumptions at non-incumbent suppliers. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Positive for the CW laser market if coherent light, silicon photonics, CPO/NPO, and higher-speed data center architectures scale, but revenue timing should be modeled conservatively. LEGACY 100G DFB LASER DEMAND IS MORE RESILIENT THAN EXPECTED BECAUSE COMPETITORS ARE PIVOTING CAPACITY TO HIGHER-POWER LASERS (READ-THROUGH 5) Affected companies: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI: US), Coherent Corp. (COHR: US), Lumentum Holdings (LITE: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, medium magnitude for suppliers retaining DFB capacity and legacy 100G optical product support; potentially negative, low to medium magnitude for suppliers that have over-rotated away from legacy laser portfolios. Call support: MACOM said lower data-rate 100G single-mode and multimode products are still showing modest growth. In Q&A, management said that as “customers and competitors are pivoting to more, let’s say, the higher-power or CW lasers to support silicon photonics, that’s creating a little bit of a gap in DFB lasers,” adding that MACOM has a “strong broad DFB laser portfolio” to support “legacy data center 100-gig modules” and that this “could be a great business for us over the next one to two years.” Transmission mechanism: AI bandwidth growth is not eliminating legacy optical demand as quickly as some investors assume. Long-tail 100G demand persists in parts of the data center and network infrastructure market. If competitors move capacity and engineering focus toward CW/high-power lasers, DFB supply tightens and pricing/margins can improve for suppliers that remain committed. Applied Optoelectronics, Coherent, and Lumentum are affected through the legacy optical component and module supply chain, though the specific benefit depends on each company’s capacity allocation and customer exposure. Near-term trading catalyst: Positive for suppliers with near-term DFB availability and 100G module exposure. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Limited duration. Management framed the opportunity as 1 to 2 years, not a new secular growth market. COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS, SUBSTRATES AND EQUIPMENT INP AND SIC SUPPLY SECURITY IS BECOMING STRATEGIC; DIRECT POSITIVE FOR IQE AND BROADER POSITIVE FOR COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS (READ-THROUGH 6) Affected companies: IQE plc (IQE: UK), AXT Inc. (AXTI: US), Coherent Corp. (COHR: US), Aixtron SE (AIXA: Germany), Veeco Instruments (VECO: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for IQE; positive, medium magnitude for broader InP, SiC, epitaxy, and compound semiconductor equipment exposure. Call support: MACOM discussed its investment in IQE, stating that IQE raised GBP80 million and that MACOM participated with a GBP45 million investment, including GBP30 million in equity for approximately 11% ownership and a GBP15 million convertible note. Management said the transaction included a “long-term supply agreement” to ensure “adequate supply” of technologies MACOM is acquiring from IQE and others. Management described the rationale as “supply-chain security and resiliency” and said it would “backstop our expected growth, not only as it relates to indium phosphide based products, but also silicon carbide-based products and some other technologies as well.” Transmission mechanism: This is a direct validation of strategic scarcity in compound semiconductor materials and epitaxy. IQE benefits most directly from capital injection, long-term supply agreement, and customer validation. AXT and Coherent are affected through broader InP substrate and compound materials demand. Aixtron and Veeco benefit through MOCVD and epitaxy equipment demand if photonics, GaN, InP, and SiC capacity additions continue across the industry. The key point is that AI optical and defense GaN demand are pulling on upstream materials in a way that is important enough for MACOM to use balance sheet capital to secure supply. Near-term trading catalyst: Direct positive for IQE because the transaction is company-specific and linked to MACOM’s growth. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Positive for strategic value of qualified InP, SiC, and epitaxial supply chains as AI photonics, defense GaN, and satellite high-frequency links scale. COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR CAPEX IS SELECTIVE AND HIGH-ROI, NOT A BROAD GREENFIELD FAB CYCLE (READ-THROUGH 7) Affected companies: Aixtron SE (AIXA: Germany), Veeco Instruments (VECO: US), Applied Materials (AMAT: US), Lam Research (LRCX: US), KLA Corp. (KLAC: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Mixed. Positive, low to medium magnitude for specialty compound semiconductor equipment suppliers; neutral to slightly negative, low magnitude for broad semicap names expecting a large greenfield compound semiconductor buildout. Call support: MACOM guided FY2026 capex to $55 million to $65 million and said capital should remain in the 4% to 5% of revenue range. Management said North Carolina wafer production capacity is being increased by 30% with less than $20 million of investment, Massachusetts is adding advanced GaN and InP equipment, and France is moving a product line from 3-inch to 6-inch and installing a new MOCVD reactor. Management was explicit: “You will not see us greenfielding a building a new fab, building a new factory.” Transmission mechanism: The call supports demand for targeted bottleneck tools, MOCVD reactors, process upgrades, yield tools, and capacity expansions within existing fabs. It does not support a broad-based greenfield fab equipment cycle. Aixtron and Veeco are better positioned for this type of targeted compound semiconductor capex than broad wafer-fab equipment suppliers whose revenue sensitivity depends on large-scale fab builds. AMAT, Lam, and KLA may see only limited read-through because MACOM’s strategy emphasizes incremental capacity, used equipment, and fab utilization rather than large new fab construction. Near-term trading catalyst: Mild positive for specialty compound semiconductor tool vendors; limited impact for broad semicap. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Specialty semiconductor suppliers are likely to prioritize capital-light capacity debottlenecking and supply-chain control rather than aggressive new capacity, which supports margin discipline but limits semicap upside. DEFENSE ELECTRONICS, RF, MICROWAVE AND GALLIUM NITRIDE DEFENSE RF, MICROWAVE, MMWAVE, GAN AND OPTICAL CONTENT IS ACCELERATING ACROSS RADAR, MISSILE DEFENSE, EW AND COUNTER-DRONE SYSTEMS (READ-THROUGH 8) Affected companies: Analog Devices (ADI: US), Qorvo (QRVO: US), Teledyne Technologies (TDY: US), Mercury Systems (MRCY: US), RTX Corp. (RTX: US), Lockheed Martin (LMT: US), Northrop Grumman (NOC: US), L3Harris Technologies (LHX: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, high magnitude for defense electronics and RF/microwave suppliers; positive, medium magnitude for large defense primes. Call support: MACOM’s industrial and defense revenue was $120.7 million, a record level, and first-half FY2026 I&D revenue grew 22% versus the prior year. Management expects I&D growth above 20% for FY2026 and said revenue from the top 25 defense customers should “significantly increase” from FY2025 to FY2026. Management cited radar systems, missile and missile defense systems, drone and drone defense systems, communications systems, wideband EW, space-based sensors, secure communications, and RF-over-fiber. The key content statement was that these systems are using “higher frequencies, higher RF or microwave power levels and higher levels of integration,” creating “incremental semiconductor content growth opportunities.” Transmission mechanism: Modern defense systems are becoming more RF-, microwave-, millimeter-wave-, photonics-, and GaN-intensive. This expands dollar content per platform for suppliers of high-performance analog, RF, microwave, ADC/DAC, GaN power, phased-array, and embedded defense electronics. Analog Devices benefits through high-performance analog/RF content. Qorvo benefits through GaN and RF power exposure. Teledyne and Mercury benefit through defense electronics and mission systems content. RTX, Lockheed, Northrop, and L3Harris benefit through stronger demand for systems that integrate this content, though primes may also face supply-chain and cost pressures. Near-term trading catalyst: Positive for defense electronics suppliers with exposure to radar, EW, missile defense, and counter-drone upgrades. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Defense modernization is increasing semiconductor content per system, making defense electronics a secular growth vertical rather than a purely budget-driven prime contractor story. EUROPEAN DEFENSE ELECTRONICS DEMAND IS BROADENING AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS ONLY A US PROCUREMENT CYCLE (READ-THROUGH 9) Affected companies: BAE Systems (BA.: UK), Thales (HO: France), Leonardo (LDO: Italy), Rheinmetall (RHM: Germany), Saab AB (SAAB B: Sweden), Hensoldt (HAG: Germany), QinetiQ (QQ.: UK). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, medium to high magnitude for European defense electronics and sensor suppliers. Call support: Management said the defense market is “very active, not only here in the US, but also overseas,” and added: “We have a growing customer-base in Europe. When we were looking at our recent growth rates of between North American and European defense customers, they’re both growing at the same rate. We were very pleased to see that. So the Europeans are spending more money on electronics and defense systems and we’re participating in that.” Transmission mechanism: The call supports the view that European defense spend is increasingly electronics-content-rich, not limited to munitions, vehicles, or platforms. This benefits companies with radar, sensors, EW, secure communications, missile defense, and phased-array exposure. Hensoldt, Thales, Leonardo, Saab, BAE, Rheinmetall, and QinetiQ all have varying degrees of exposure to European defense electronics modernization. The key transmission is higher electronics content and faster upgrade cycles as European customers modernize systems against new threats. Near-term trading catalyst: Positive for European defense electronics sentiment and backlog confidence. Longer-duration fundamental shift: European defense budgets are increasingly likely to flow into RF, sensors, EW, and secure communications, supporting higher-margin electronics exposure within the European defense complex. RF POWER GAN SHARE SHIFTS ARE REAL BUT LONG-DATED; 2026 ESTIMATES SHOULD NOT CAPITALIZE COMPETITOR EXIT BENEFITS (READ-THROUGH 10) Affected companies: Qorvo (QRVO: US), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI: Netherlands), Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802: Japan), Mitsubishi Electric (6503: Japan), MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI: US). Directional impact and magnitude: Positive, medium magnitude for potential share gainers over 2027 and beyond; neutral to negative, low to medium magnitude for 2026 estimates that assume immediate displacement. Call support: Asked about a competitor exiting the RF power GaN market, management said: “The benefit has not been realized and it won’t happen in ’26. The revenue will start to shine through in ’27.” Management added that the opportunity is “best-case, a back-half of ’27 contribution” because customers need time to pivot, qualify MACOM on new platforms, and convert design wins into revenue. The exiting competitor also put last-time buys and inventory in place, reducing near-term disruption. Transmission mechanism: RF power GaN share shifts require platform qualification, new design wins, and customer redesign cycles. That creates opportunity for surviving RF power suppliers but delays revenue recognition. Qorvo, NXP, Sumitomo Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, and MACOM are affected through competitive positioning in RF power and base station/defense GaN applications. The read-through is positive for long-duration share capture, but negative for near-term investor expectations of immediate revenue transfer. Near-term trading catalyst: Limited. The call explicitly rejects FY2026 upside from competitor exit. Longer-duration fundamental shift: Positive for remaining qualified RF power GaN suppliers as new programs are redesigned around alternative sources.

@thevalueistMay 7, 2026 · 2:31 PM

$MTSI (Bloomberg) -- Macom forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate. THIRD QUARTER FORECAST Sees adjusted EPS $1.31 to $1.37, estimate $1.14 (Bloomberg Consensus) Sees revenue $331 million to $339 million, estimate $300.1 million SECOND QUARTER RESULTS Adj. income from operations $80.5 million, +35% y/y, estimate $79.1 million Adjusted EPS $1.09 vs. 85c y/y, estimate $1.07 Revenue $289.0 million, +22% y/y, estimate $285.3 million Adjusted gross margin 58.5% vs. 57.5% y/y, estimate 58% Adjusted operating income margin 27.8% vs. 25.4% y/y, estimate 27.7% Adjusted operating expenses $88.6 million, +17% y/y, estimate $86.4 million COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT For the fiscal third quarter ending July 3, 2026, MACOM expects revenue to be in the range of $331 million to $339 million.

@aleabitoredditMay 5, 2026 · 11:47 PM

Woah... Massive CW laser bottleneck. It's interesting $LITE is bottlenecked by CW lasers so they buy them on the open market: "Now we’ve seen a little bit of tension in our own supply line, externally to get lasers from the external market, CW lasers." $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and others operate in a structurally sold out market... Likely because companies like $LITE have to keep producing EMLs. Starting to make more sense why Ayar made $SIVE the only laser supplier on their website and removed $LITE / $MTSI?

@thevalueistMay 5, 2026 · 6:27 PM

$MTSI all-time high today. Nice looking breakout chart. Earnings on 5/7/26 pre. https://t.co/hY6F3BfGaE

@kaizen_investorMay 5, 2026 · 11:34 AM

I initiated a position in $WOLF yesterday. I bought the stock at $36.  I discovered Wolfspeed as they are an indirect supplier of Filtronic. The space communication tech is rapidly developing. Filtronic is buidling GaN on SiC E-band and V-band amps. I predict that this market will grow rapidly in the upcoming years.  Filtronic is buying the GaN on SiC amps from $MTSI. MACOM bought this division form Wolfspeed. $WOLF sold this division in order to make sure they can be entirely focused on their SiC division.  They still have a sales agreement with MACOM and are selling their 200mm SiC wafers to MACOM. While most competitors are still refining the 150mm SiC wafers, Wolfspeed is already developing 300mm SiC wafers.  300mm SiC wafers are a game changer for datacenters and for space. 300mm SiC wafers provide 4x the surface area of 150 mm SiC wafers. This geometry yields vastly more chips per wafer and reduces edge waste, drastically lowering the manufacturing cost per device through economies of scale.  $WOLF is currently valued at ~$1.7B with an EV of ~$2.6B and ~$800m debt. The market is giving zero premium for future growth or IP. Being the main innovator in the SiC space, I think the market will soon start to give a premium again.  Their main sales market now is the EV market. Which is unreliable and often cyclical. I understand the market does not want to give a premium for this. But with the change to 200mm SiC wafers and 300mm SiC wafers, they enter the datacenter and space market.  Wolfspeed is not without risk. The company basically went bankrupt in June 2025. They needed protection from chapter 11. They have negative free cash flow with ~$800m debt. They need to invest heavily in R&D for the 300mm SiC wafers and got some competition.  They needed government funding under the chips and science act, securing a first $750m with the possibility on another $1B.  I’m willing to take this risk as I believe 300mm SiC wafers will be a real game changer. Even with the 200mm SiC wafers, they were able to grow the datacenter segment with 50%. This segment will become more and more important for them. The market is not pricing this in at all.  Please note that they report earnings tonight after the bell, which is not ideal. They are still dependent on the EV market (75% of the revenues). So, it can be that they miss earnings tonight but still confirm my thesis. If you don’t feel confident in the thesis, please wait until after the earnings tonight before possibly initiating a position. It’s possible that the stock drops 25% due to the EV market but confirming the datacenter thesis.  Please note that this is not financial advice. I just map my own financial journey. If you want to initiate a possition, make sure you do your own research.

@aleabitoredditMay 3, 2026 · 7:01 AM

It's pretty insane to see $SIVE become a Tier 1 laser supplier for CPO. This is my prediction/guess with est. mapping: $NVDA ate up all the capacity with $COHR, $LITE after their new $2B+ spending spree. Same playbook with EML early 2025, causing the bottleneck seen today. Now, $AMD / hyperscalers are scambling for upstream laser suppliers. Hence why $SIVE + Win / $GFS became likely primary route to go down. You can see this with: -> $MVL CPO through Celestial (Nvidia signed a deal, but they don't have lasers) -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> and other programs (eg. Jabil 1.6T) As a result, Sivers/Win emerged as the Tier 1 bleeding edge + critical independent laser supplier. And there's hints for this when: 1. $GFS listed $SIVE / $LITE as the two only public laser suppliers in their ecosystem. 2. Ayar removed $LITE / $MTSI off their website and elevated $SIVE to their primary laser supplier. So everyone else ended up going with Sivers since $COHR / $LITE are fully allocated. My guess is that a lot of the secondary suppliers also capture overflow as architectures standardize. But scramble for this chokepoint will be insane early next year given $NVDA bottleneck. And a small $1.2B Swedish company in $SIVE will be in the center of it.

@investmentguru_May 2, 2026 · 6:29 PM

The Full Optical AI Industry Chain: 1. IC Design & Manufacturing (Where the brains are built) ASIC / xPU / Photonic ICs → $NVDA $MRVL $AVGO $LITE $COHR $INTC $AMD $CSCO Wafer Foundries → $TSM $TSEM $GFS $UMC 2. Materials (The Overlooked Layer) (The foundation of photonics) Indium Phosphide → $AXTI $IQE Gallium Arsenide → $AXTI $MTSI This layer is underfollowed and could see strong upside as optical demand expands. 3. Optical Components (The data highways) VCSEL / EML Lasers → $LITE $COHR $AVGO $AAOI Optical Module Assembly → $FN $COHR $LITE $MRVL $CSCO Fiber / WDM / Optical Connectivity → $CIEN $GLW $LITE MPO Connectors → $GLW $APH Optical Fiber → $GLW 4. Packaging & Testing (The hidden backbone) Packaging → $ASX $AMKR $FN $JBL Packaging Equipment → $KLIC Testing → $TER $KEYS $FORM $AEHR

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 10:05 PM

@KingDavidvs Are you kidding? $IQE having $MTSI to pay off debts with 45M Euros is fundamentally different. From some no name shtco like $SLNH diluting $1B off a $197m MC, with a $500M ATM sold into the open market whenever retail buys.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 8:06 PM

@ravietweet Morgan Stanley now ended up holding 6.5% of $SOI, which was my other silicon photonics long. I’m do show retail the structural chokepoints in AI before institutions figure it out… Point72, $MTSI and others ended up buying $IQE float after my thesis post too.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 7:56 PM

Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.

@aleabitoredditApr 28, 2026 · 6:52 PM

@kwongny Probably related to the rest of the share offering sold to convertible note arbitrage firms. Originally thought it was just $MTSI but there was another tranche sold to existing investors in the filing.

@aleabitoredditApr 28, 2026 · 8:13 AM

@Mellokhai Nuanced, long term bullish especially with $MTSI as an investor and clearing debt. Macom is not a day trader so that 45M is locked up. Short term bearish if the other half of the offering was sold to investors that arbitrage convertible notes.

@aleabitoredditApr 28, 2026 · 8:08 AM

@kapitonov_ivan So $SIVE doesn't handle capacity scaling, Win Semi does volume ramp. Win is massive. $AVGO, $LITE, $QCOM, Mediatek, $MTSI, $NXPI, all use them. They're in $AAPL, SpaceX supply chains too. So volume scaling for hyperscalers is derisked if you secure allocation and do it through Win.

@aleabitoredditApr 28, 2026 · 7:45 AM

I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 6:00 PM

@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI plans to buy $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor? How could this be bearish.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 5:56 PM

@LNMDad This is incredibly positive having $MTSI take $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 5:53 PM

Just now, $MTSI looking to invest $45 Million into $IQE and sit on the board. What did I say anon??? Landmark was overcapacity... + IQE was a structural chokepoint in photonics the supply chain back at $100M MC. This deal is also to secure long term epiwafer supply. https://t.co/lS2TGFI6v6

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:51 PM

@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process. They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:33 PM

@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 4:21 PM

@FlachtFunds It's not good news. But it's not that bad either. $LITE likely has capacity allocated toward $NVDA, which is why $AMD CPO (likely) went with $SIVE + $GFS is my guess. $MRVL will probably just buy from $SIVE directly and multi-source, maybe $MTSI and design out the packaging side of things in-house.

@aleabitoredditApr 27, 2026 · 7:21 AM

Still think $SIVE is vastly undiscovered. Feels like markets are only slowly starting to realize the likely laser supplier for $AMD? The only two public laser companies were $SIVE and $LITE on the $GFS presentation by the way…. after AMD’s CPO program went the way with GFS. And $SIVE is the only one left alongside GFS on Ayar’s website after they silently removed $LITE and $MTSI from their partner section. AlChip and GUC also happen to be pretty big for hyperscaler suppliers too.. Feels like Sivers lasers are going to end up everywhere next year.

@aleabitoredditApr 23, 2026 · 6:29 PM

@InspiredHustle8 Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this. There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions. There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Ayar. Compared to $LITE, $MTSI and the others. People really underestimate the company just by looking at the MC.

@aleabitoredditApr 23, 2026 · 7:03 AM

All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.

@aleabitoredditApr 21, 2026 · 9:04 PM

Woah... Sivers looks like the primary laser supplier to $AMD's CPO program if AMD goes the Ayar route at $GFS. The interesting thing is: $LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time. (Special thanks to one of my followers Setian for the DM.) So $SIVE likely became the primary laser supplier for Ayar first-gen... and by extension for all of Ayar's customers routing through Alchip or other ASIC design firms. Ayar also raised $500M last month for VOLUME PRODUCTION, where $SIVE is designed in. This find looks structurally massive for $SIVE as it undercuts narratives about $LITE and others being primary suppliers. And especially about $SIVE having only a small % laser share for CPO if they're likely to be the primary laser supplier.

@aleabitoredditApr 19, 2026 · 11:11 PM

Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.

@investmentguru_Apr 19, 2026 · 12:20 PM

My Photonics watchlist:- Materials/Substrates: $AXTI $GLW $IQEPF Foundry/Manufacturing: $TSEM $FN $GFS $MKSI Components/Lasers: $COHR $LITE $AAOI $SIVE Silicon/DSP: $AVGO $MRVL $MTSI $CRDO Systems/Networks: $CIEN $NOK $CLS Infrastructure: $NVDA Moonshots: $POET $LWLG

@aleabitoredditApr 18, 2026 · 9:17 PM

@JCassidyHogan Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC? All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m. As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc. Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions

@aleabitoredditApr 15, 2026 · 8:26 AM

I really meant it when I thought $SIVE could be valued at $2B today. When do you ever find a critical laser supplier to $MRVL, $JBL, and Hyperscaler supply chains... At $620m MC? You can't... Since there's only a few in the world. And the rest in hyperscaler supply chains from $LITE to $MTSI are in the tens of billions...

@aleabitoredditApr 15, 2026 · 7:23 AM

@CryptoGuru365 I think $SIVE has the potential to be a $10B+ laser company like $MTSI or $LITE

@aleabitoredditApr 13, 2026 · 3:12 PM

I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company. Not later this year. Since I’m not sure how: - $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation - packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation. - laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions. And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer. There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either. So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream. Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions. Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post. Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE. DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.

@aleabitoredditApr 11, 2026 · 4:20 AM

am i that powerful? pretty sure it's just information synthesis + discovery. If I posted about a napkin company trading at 8 p/e, nobody would care. When $SIVE is the light source for $JBL and $MRVL at ~400m... and trades at like 1/4th the valuation of something more speculative like $LWLG. while all the other CW DFB companies like $MTSI or $LITE are all in the tens of billions. Information ends up drawing people's attention, not the person.

@jasonl_capitalApr 10, 2026 · 6:05 PM

Nvidia invested $6B into photonics in March alone. The AI bottleneck isn't chips. It's moving data between them. 10 photonics stocks I'm watching: $AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics $LITE - Lumentum $COHR - Coherent $FN - Fabrinet $MTSI - MACOM Technology $CRDO - Credo Technology $LASR - nLight $AXTI - AXT Inc $MRVL - Marvell Technology $CIEN - Ciena NFA DYOR

@investmentguru_Apr 9, 2026 · 12:28 AM

Photonics / Optical / Semiconductor — Full Stack View Foundries $TSEM $GFS → Scaling silicon photonics capacity to meet demand surge Optical Components & Lasers $COHR $LITE $IPGP $LASR → Core building blocks: lasers, modulators, photodiodes Transceivers & Optical Engines $AAOI $POET → Where electrical meets optical — key bottleneck + opportunity Chip Design & SiPh Integration $MRVL $MTSI → Designing the brains behind optical interconnects Manufacturing & Packaging $FN → Advanced assembly becomes critical as complexity rises Networking & Systems $CIEN $GLW → Moving massive data through fiber at scale Testing & Materials $AEHR $AXTI $LWLG → Enabling performance, reliability, and next-gen efficiency Key Drivers → AI data center buildout (800G → 1.6T → CPO) → Demand > supply through 2027 → Aggressive M&A across the ecosystem This isn’t just a sector — it’s an entire supply chain being repriced in real time. Photonics isn’t coming… it’s already here. Not financial advice. DYOR.

@aleabitoredditApr 7, 2026 · 3:56 PM

For the next photonics CW laser chokepoint. Personal high-beta exposure tierlist: 1. $SIVE: $302m 2. $AAOI: $8.35B 3. Yuanjie (688498): $13.55B 4. $MTSI: $17.4B 5. $LITE: $56.1B 6. $COHR: $49.2B 7. Suzhou Everbright: $5.95B 8. LuxNet (4979.TWO): $1.7B 9. Henan Shijia (SHA: 688313): $6.2B 10. Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801): $16.06B 11. Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802): $45.113B 12. Mitsubishi Electric (TYO: 6503): $71.2B 13. $AVGO: $1.53T Ended up taking the highest exposure picks personally (but avoided HK listed names due to conflict of interest).

@kaizen_investorApr 4, 2026 · 3:13 PM

Weekend is a great time to do some research. Companies I’m going to look into this weekend: $AEHR $FN $CIEN $JBL $VLN $MTSI $IRDM $SPIR Here is my method 👇

@aleabitoredditApr 2, 2026 · 2:31 PM

@FranGGlez 100% lasers. I personally wouldn't go downstream into assembly and others. But with the laser chokepoint it's really hard to pick a winner between stuff like Luxnet, Furukawa, Sumitomo, $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE, $SMTC (after heico cw acqusition) and others... But I found Sivers to be really compelling since they're in $JBL 1.6T + $MRVL CPO roadmap at ~$290m MC.

@aleabitoredditApr 2, 2026 · 2:20 PM

Lightcounting: "This is not a typo" Optical interconnects has a reasonable chance to reach $100B+ by 2030 from ~$19B (2025). If you're looking for my favorite names: Compounders: $MRVL, $SMTC CW Lasers: $SIVE, $MTSI, $AAOI Foundries $TSEM, Win Semi Substrates/Epitaxy: $AXTI, $SOI, $IQE Gold Standard: $LITE, $COHR The next TAM expansion multiplier is CPO/Scale Up, largely driven by SiPh and external CW lasers.

@aleabitoredditApr 2, 2026 · 8:40 AM

@PhotonCap Yes there’s others out there like Sumitomo, Furukawa, $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, and these types of players… But very rare to you see a pure play cw laser for the next photonics ramp like $SIVE. People are looking at current cycles for reliability, but next architectures are different and might glut older versions. So I think there’s room for new smaller players to shine for cpo/scale up

@blackpanthercapApr 1, 2026 · 5:14 PM

THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN — COMPLETE MAP I've spent a few hours mapping the entire AI supply chain. Hyperscalers are spending $750 billion. These are the 42 companies building, powering, and deploying AI from start to finish. Every layer. Every sector. Bookmark it. Feel free to add companies in the comments. Layer 1: Chip Equipment (the machines that build the machines): $ASML $AMAT $LRCX $TSEM Layer 2: Foundry & Fabrication (where chips are born): $TSM $GFS $INTC Layer 3: GPU / ASIC / CPU (the AI compute engines): $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $MRVL Layer 4: Memory & HBM (the bandwidth bottleneck): $MU $WDC Layer 5: Photonics & Optical Interconnects: $COHR $LITE $AAOI $POET $MTSI $ALMU Layer 6: Data Center + Space (the physical home of AI): $IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF $EQIX $RKLB $ASTS $PL Layer 7: Cybersecurity (every new AI system is a new attack surface): $CRWD $PANW $ZS $NET $S $FTNT Layer 8: AI Software & Automation (where the ROI shows up): $PATH $PLTR $NOW $HIMS $DDOG $SNOW $MDB $SOFI Layer 9: Defense & End-Use (where AI becomes operational): $ONDS $OSS $RKLB $AMPX $LHX $RTX $NOC $PNG.V Every company on this list has either government budgets, hyperscaler contracts, or can potentially benefit from the AI build it somehow. Save this. And if you found this valuable, you should follow me. The market won't be red forever. -BP Please note: This is not financial advice.

@aleabitoredditMar 31, 2026 · 4:07 PM

The market are missing the implications from $NVDA investing: $2B into $COHR for optical. $2B into $LITE for optical. and $2B into $MRVL for optical today. Nvidia did this exact same playbook last year. They realized the push to 800G/1.6T pluggables would exhaust the global supply of EML. So they approached $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo, and preallocated majority of production. And we've seen this reflected in their share price with $LITE rising 955% since the major supply squeeze. We're seeing the beginning of the same playbook happen now over the last month. Just for a new architecture, this time. As these deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. So... what's next? CW/EML and CPO bottlenecks. Nvidia just prefers to invest in downstream players. But the supply crunch happens upstream. Laser suppliers from $MTSI, $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and Sumitomo are on overdrive. Foundries from Win Semi, $TSEM, $GFS are likely on overdrive. The entire supply chain benefits (eg. testing from $AEHR, substrates with $SOI). But these two segments from foundries to ELS/CW laser chokepoints are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia is the biggest signal of what's coming next; it's just a waiting period for the inflection point to hit.

@aleabitoredditMar 31, 2026 · 12:47 AM

@swisssong Anytime. I think people should treat the analysis as extremely high level, not a deep dive into the industry. I'm not quite sure how Mirae missed so many names from $MTSI to Luxnet...

@aleabitoredditMar 31, 2026 · 12:35 AM

CPO Value Chain Summary from Mirae Asset: Laser Source: Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) PIC Foundry: TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM> EIC, Driver IC: Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS, Optical Engine Innolight / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) TFC / Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU (Fiber Array Unit): Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU, Align Tools: ficonTEC (Private) All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST (Private) FAU, Engine Assembly: Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT, Advanced Packaging: ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > Connector, Ferrule: Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec (Private) T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex (Private) Browave (TWO: 3163) Fiber: Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / Nitto Boseki (TYO: 3110) E/O Testing: Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane (Private) Switch, System: NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL> EDA: Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > Confused by some of names of the list, they might have conflated a few names like Innolight with laser source like $MTSI, Sumitomo, $SIVE, Luxnet, with the actual end module (unless there's something that's not public material or I missed)? But just for people interested in the landscape, this is a good high-level overview.

@aleabitoredditMar 30, 2026 · 4:07 AM

@beauty_oe 日本の視聴者に向けて、最新の注目テクノロジーについて発信してくださるのは、いつも本当に素晴らしいですね！ 機関投資家の次のローテーション（資金の向かう先）は、「CPO」や $MTSI 、古河電工などの企業が手掛ける同技術向けの「外部光源」になるのではないかと考えています。 とはいえ、現在の個別銘柄の値動きの多くは、マクロ環境の影響を大きく受けているのも事実です。

@aleabitoredditMar 30, 2026 · 2:28 AM

@Erotser3 Sure, it's more like direct exposure vs. marketcap. The light source environment looks like this: Leading players: Lumentum ($55B), Broadcom ($1T), Coherent ($55B), Sumitomo (massive) Large Players: $AAOI (~$8B), Furukawa (~$7B), $MTSI (~$19B) Emerging players: $INTC (~$230B+), $SIVE ($230M), Luxnet ($1.7B) You can buy $AVGO for photonics exposure, but because it's so large... their other segments will probably be diluting exposure. On the other hand, if you look at $SIVE, it's almost pure-play to the light source ramp for CPO because it's so small. So I ended up picking the most direct exposure. Lot of people are uncomfortable with MC, so companies like Furukawa, $MTSI, Sumitomo might be more popular with institutional analysts.

@aleabitoredditMar 27, 2026 · 8:24 AM

@yuntungshieh Back when $AMD was $3 a share: The industry consensus was $INTC was keeping them around just for "monopoly" purposes and they wouldn't be disrupted. $AMD went up 66 times and is now a $330B+ MC. Seeing the same thing with $SIVE. You're comparing $14B companies like Furukawa, $19B with $MTSI, $55B with $LITE and saying they have a better position than $SIVE. It's clearly reflected in the marketcap already. What people misunderstand is that you have a $300m company already designed into captive hyperscaler supply chains in $MRVL. Then ones like Ayar -> $JBL... At a $300m MC. Upside on $SIVE is enormous here, and the risk is reflected in the MC.

@aleabitoredditMar 27, 2026 · 8:11 AM

You cant spell Winner without Win. Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain. $SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow. If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space. There’s a reason why: -> $POET / $MRVL Celestial. -> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE. It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers. At a ~$300M valuation. And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop. It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR. As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures. But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE). Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space. And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale. It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.

@aleabitoredditMar 27, 2026 · 4:34 AM

I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.

@aleabitoredditMar 26, 2026 · 4:12 PM

Photonics are not having a fun time. Laser Companies from: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down. Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from: $IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down. Almost everything is red. From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%. Good lesson to learn: Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage. If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today. Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings. However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028... Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates. Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.

@aleabitoredditMar 26, 2026 · 8:33 AM

So if you care about the second optical transicever bottleneck outside of EML/CW Lasers: - $SANM (US) - $TTMI (US) - WUS Printed Circuit (TPE: 2316) - Unimicron (TPE: 3037) - Zhen Ding Tech (TPE: 4958) - Gold Circuit Electronics (TPE: 2368) Were winners for the optical transceiver PCB bottleneck. There's some downstream players like FIC Global that benefits, not so much as a Fab but assembly. Others like Unimicron are likely too large with other segments like ABF substrates to feel much of a difference. US plays are more-so from reshoring to US supply chains, even though Chinese and Taiwanese players were main beneficaries. $AVGO quote: "Both Taiwanese and Chinese PCB suppliers are facing capacity limits, contributing to the delays, Ramachandran said, without naming the suppliers." I have no open long positions in any of these right now. I could be wrong, but I felt laser chokepoints ( $LITE, $SIVE, $MTSI, $COHR, Sumitomo) in optical supply chains to be much more compelling for structural re-rating.

@aleabitoredditMar 26, 2026 · 8:12 AM

@Alex__0x0 Yeah, everything from $AAOI, $LITE, $MTSI, $TSEM, $COHR, $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, Landmark, and others have been strongly outperforming!. Sometimes you forget the index is down -4% YTD.

@aleabitoredditMar 26, 2026 · 8:07 AM

$SIVE at ~$400m MC is a name I genuinely believe... Institutions missed as the upstream laser chokepoint for hyperscalers. When you look at $TSEM following my thesis, the stock went up 70% to a $21B+ MC. Retail flows do not send NASDAQ stocks up $10B+. Information discovery and synthesis does. Especially when institutions validate it, and follow along. $SIVE was majority owned by Sweden retail investors, with **almost 0 institutional investors**. Now that information is distributed regarding the Upstream CW laser supplier for $MRVL, Ayar, Jabil, O-Net. And with $AVGO + other comments recently stating lasers were a clear bottleneck for supply chains: I strongly think that institutions are trying to accumulate off Swedish retail hands through Iceberg orders, vwap algos, or any other methods to gain exposure to the upcoming CW laser bottleneck. Again, the closest comparison to $SIVE are: $MTSI and $LITE, both at $18B and $55B MCs. Sivers trades at ~$400m MC. With architectural paradigm shifts in photonic supply chains: I think retail has a rare opportunity to frontrun institutions with $SIVE and have heavy exposure to the upcoming CW/EML laser bottleneck.

@aleabitoredditMar 26, 2026 · 5:56 AM

@Berlinergy Exactly. Lot of things come just a lack of understanding. If people developed their own conviction around names like $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE if they saw how severe the EML/CW bottleneck is going to be. Then when you see a 125%+ increase, you would still think it's undervalued.

@aleabitoredditMar 25, 2026 · 1:56 PM

@rodrimartinezgg Trading at ~$440M right now but my expectation is $2-3B today. Then could be $MTSI $17-20B MC in a year and half once Jabil and others scale up.

@aleabitoredditMar 25, 2026 · 9:16 AM

@TGodTrader Oh 100% companies would want to acquire Sivers. They're one of the few companies in the world like $MTSI that can do this. But acquisitions might be blocked since $SIVE is central to national security for both Europe and US (CHIPS Act recipient).

@aleabitoredditMar 25, 2026 · 9:12 AM

$SIVE is literally one of the only pure play public exposure to the (CW/EML) optical laser bottlenecks in the world. $LITE - $55B+ $COHR - $53B+ $MTSI - $17.8B+ $AAOI - $8.8B $SIVE- $400M You basically almost never see this... Genuinely shocked there's a small cap company out there like Sivers... That already is a qualified supplier to hyperscaler supply chains through Jabil, Marvel Celestial, O-Net, Ayar and others. This is one of the largest structural gaps in the market I've seen. I expect the market to keep repricing this every day like $AXTI as more institutions begin to realize this.

@aleabitoredditMar 25, 2026 · 4:16 AM

@yathatone2 They're all kinda high conviction... aside from $MTSI and Win Semi. You can probably just put all those in an equal weighted ETF and strongly outperform the market. There's more laser suppliers/foundries like $GFS, but I chose my personal winners in the list above.

@aleabitoredditMar 25, 2026 · 4:13 AM

Every industry leader... Especially $AVGO (Physical Layer Products division) in this statement today. Cites Lasers as a bottleneck for semiconductors. If you aren't long... -> CW Lasers: $SIVE | $MTSI -> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE -> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi Maybe it's time to wake up? Broadcom Ramachandran: "Even though there are multiple suppliers in the industry today... there is definitely a supply constraint in the laser space,”

@aleabitoredditMar 24, 2026 · 6:29 AM

There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle: -> Triggered by $PL. With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following. Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle: -> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR. With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following. One is hype over applications from Space. The other is hype over extreme revenue and earnings growth from AI. The latter tends to be more defensible.

@aleabitoredditMar 23, 2026 · 3:49 PM

I keep getting asked: What's the PT of $SIVE? It's a $320m MC company, how far can it run? It’s a critical CW laser company, the next chokepoint in photonics. Closest comparison is $MTSI is $17 Billion. Then $LITE at $51.97 Billion. I think it should trade at $2-3B, today. Yet it’s $320 million. The sheer valuation gap points to massive upside when it scales.

@aleabitoredditMar 23, 2026 · 3:13 PM

@KiroIkigai Cw lasers with $SIVE to $MTSI

@aleabitoredditMar 23, 2026 · 2:21 PM

$SIVE is starting to play out like my $AXTI thesis round 10? Up triple digits now. Really not sure how markets missed this one tbh? -> Laser supplier to Jabil… for 1.6T pluggable transceivers in the current supercycle. -> Laser supplier to Ayar / $MRVL celestial for CPO, in the upcoming supercycle. Literally all your laser suppliers from $MTSI to $LITE are $17-45B companies. $SIVE? Now only at ~$310M. High conviction long.

@aleabitoredditMar 22, 2026 · 12:13 PM

< $SIVE | $SIVEF > at a ~$250M valuation looks like one of the most severe structural mispricing in the optical semi market. $LITE and $COHR, have $45B+ valuations today: Largely because of their control over EMLs and VCSELs that they ship to -> InnoLight and Eoptolink. For current pluggable transceiver supercycles. I will keep hammering this home until markets understand: Sivers has replicated this exact, highly lucrative merchant-supplier model for the next paradigm: -> CPO and ELS. And also: -> Lasers that a massive manufacturer like Jabil is using for the current 1.6T upgrade cycle. Sivers saw architectures shifting away from EML and became the pure play supplier for CW. Current Cycle (Pluggables): LITE/COHR supply EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink build modules -> $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN buy them. Next Cycle (CPO / ELS): Sivers supplies CW DFB -> $POET, Ayar Labs -> flows to hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, $MSFT and others. However, instead of building up mega fabs with yield/capacity ramp risk: They transitioned to an outsourced, fabless model for high-volume CW Lasers with Win Semi and effectively de-risked scaling. So why does it have a $250M valuation during the photonics supercycle? My opinion: 1. Nobody knows about it yet. 2. Many fund mandates prevents them from buying small caps in Sweden However, when you start looking at obscure upstream names in hyperscaler light supply chain: At the top for the light source sits $SIVE. A small $250M company among $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo and the $10B-$40B+ incumbents. Again... A $250M company: Powers Jabil's 1.6T LRO optical transceivers modules. Jabil is massive. As well as Ayar, $POET, Enablence/ $ONET and many other names now (that are not disclosed) for diversification. $SIVE found their way to scale as the lightsource of hyperscaler supply chains for future photonic architectures. And looks incredibly undervalued, relative to forward TAM expansion and ramp.