$XLU — FinTwit mentions on Surfaced

$XLU — FinTwit mentions on Surfaced

Recent calls

16 calls

@aleabitoredditJun 17, 2026 · 1:46 PM

It's really important to add the context I added later if you're reposting this multiple times, but thanks for highlighting older ideas. With $XLU, in hindsight, was an extremely good idea for utilities. The thesis was: extreme demand from AI, capex, and rate cuts. Then Iran War unexpectedly happened, and I made statements that it threw a knife into the thesis. Since we went from 3-4 rate cut projected, down to 0, and even possibility of hikes. So I cut majority concentration, but still hold a tiny bit. Utilities trade was heavily dependent on rate cuts. It's important to stay up to date with current events, since thesis can change anytime, especially during macro black swan events.

@aleabitoredditMar 22, 2026 · 3:07 AM

@ofek1m War in Iran threw a knife into the original $XLU thesis since a large part of it hinged on rate cuts (which were widely expected to be ~3 for 2026). Alongside blowing up parts of the energy trade. I don't know what happens next, but I'm personally holding. Could always wait for a better energy but regardless: I do expect America to modernize the grid and have hyperscaler capex flowing down into power.

@aleabitoredditMar 18, 2026 · 6:55 PM

@Darkhawk720 @_stockResearch Nothing's changed with $XLU, it's boring multi-year trade. So I'm personally just sitting on my positions.

@aleabitoredditMar 9, 2026 · 4:09 PM

@RoshiPosts Nothing’s changed about $XLU, especially 2-3 weeks in. It’s a boring 2 year trade on power grid modernization, ai inference, and rate cuts.

@aleabitoredditMar 6, 2026 · 4:16 PM

@bilbooo__ Yeah $XLU is a 2 year long waiting for rate cut, grid modernization, and inference to take off. If something is a multi-year long... Might require you to wait more than 2 weeks.

@aleabitoredditMar 1, 2026 · 1:17 PM

Elon is completely right when he sounds the alarm that power/grid is vital for US dominance in AI. My call for the once in a lifetime run for $XLU (grid/power utilities ETF) is playing out real time. New calls are already up ~100%+ in the week alone. Power generation and the grid is a measurement of industrial capacity and the US has every motivation to modernize and expand it.

@aleabitoredditFeb 26, 2026 · 8:06 PM

@Noobverest $XLU was my long of choice for energy/grid modernization, coupled with rate cuts and mass usage from inference/training. There’s no rush to enter these trades, utilities and power typically move like dinosaurs. But if you’re doing leaps make sure IV is priced correctly at 14-16%, not inflated strikes.

@thevalueistFeb 25, 2026 · 6:27 PM

$XLU I'm primarily fundamentally driven and thematic (with the occasional gut call) — I don't rely on charting or technicals to build conviction. But after watching price action across countless names, one pattern has earned my respect through sheer consistency: the William O'Neill Cup-and-Handle breakout. When a stock I already like on the fundamentals begins forming that classic consolidation base — the rounded cup, the shallow handle pullback, and then the push through the pivot on rising volume — the hit rate on the subsequent move is remarkably high. It's not magic. It's market structure. The pattern essentially maps the full lifecycle of institutional accumulation: early buyers stepping in, weak hands getting shaken out during the handle, and then a supply/demand imbalance triggering the breakout. What makes it particularly useful from a portfolio management standpoint is that it gives you a clearly defined risk point. If the handle fails, you're out — the loss is contained and mechanical. That kind of asymmetry is rare in a market that usually punishes ambiguity. I'm not suggesting anyone abandon fundamental analysis for chart patterns. But if you have a strong thesis on a name and the Cup-and-Handle is confirming it — pay attention. In my experience, the convergence of fundamental conviction and this specific technical setup is one of the highest-probability entry signals in the market.

@aleabitoredditFeb 25, 2026 · 5:40 PM

Don’t think people realize how big this move on one of the Slowest. Moving. Sectors. In the world is. 2.56% in a week on $XLU. Especially if IV is 14%. All time return since year 2000 is 79.73% for the boring power/grid sector (not including dividends). Option values are easily up double digits or triple digits. That being said if IV is elevated (eg. above 17.5%) probably stay away. My thesis was this was the once in a lifetime rerating on the most boring sector in the world due to rate cuts, AI inference usage, and grid/power modernization. Hopefully this is the start my thesis playing out.

@frenchie_Feb 24, 2026 · 5:52 PM

🚨 La seule question qui trotte dans la tête des investisseur actuellement à Wall Street c’est : « Quel secteur va encore se faire découper par Anthropic la semaine prochaine ? » Ils se réfugient donc massivement sur des niches qui semblent hors d’atteinte de l’IA $XLU for days

@aleabitoredditFeb 24, 2026 · 5:49 PM

@Investmnt_Eagle I still think so! Ideal would be 14-16% IV not the elevated strikes you're looking at ~21-23% IV. Point was $XLU was a directional long on US power/grid over the next two years (that benefits from low IV).

@aleabitoredditFeb 22, 2026 · 3:56 AM

@aditya_martand You should build your own conviction, not follow others. I'm just sharing my thought process behind my own trade on $XLU in case others find the ideas interesting + can learn something.

@frenchie_Feb 21, 2026 · 6:35 PM

These macro hyper intéressante de @aleabitoreddit Le $XLU c’est le symbole boursier de l'un des ETF les plus connus au monde : le Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund. Pour faire simple, c'est un "panier" d'actions qui regroupe les plus grandes entreprises américaines du secteur des services collectifs (Utilities). 1. Ce qu'il y a dedans Il contient les géants qui gèrent l'infrastructure vitale des États-Unis (Le grid) : • Électricité : (ex: NextEra Energy, Southern Co) • Producteurs indépendants d'énergie : (ex: Constellation Energy, Vistra) • Gaz et Eau : Distribution domestique et industrielle. 2. Pourquoi c'est historiquement "ennuyeux" D'ordinaire, le XLU est considéré comme un secteur de balancing pour mitiger le risque dans des portefeuilles car c’est : • Défensif : Les gens paient leur facture d'électricité même en crise. • Sensible aux taux : Comme ces entreprises sont très endettées pour construire des centrales, elles profitent massivement quand les taux d'intérêt baissent et même en cas de récession. • Dividendes : Il est prisé pour ses revenus stables. 3. Pourquoi c'est devenu "sexy" en 2026 • Le XLU n'est plus une simple valeur de rendement. C'est devenu un proxy (un substitut) du secteur de l'IA. • Sans les entreprises du XLU, les puces de Nvidia sont juste du sable car il faut des quantités massives de courant pour faire tourner l'inférence et le training. Les grosses entreprises de l’IA seront prêt à payer des primes délirantes pour avoir accès au GRID si elles ont des déficit en production électriques En résumé : Acheter du XLU, c'est parier sur les "propriétaires des prises de courant" au moment où le monde entier (et surtout l'IA) veut se brancher. L'idée d'un Call OTM (Out-of-the-Money) à 2 ans ("LEAPS") sur le $XLU est la strategie de levier à long terme la plus efficace pour ne pas payer une prime délirante et profiter du levier Un bond de 40% sur 2 ans peux facilement faire un x10 avec ce levier.

@aleabitoredditFeb 21, 2026 · 2:45 PM

If I had to turn $100k -> $1M in 1 year. It would be: $XLU OTM 2 year leaps 2026 is the first time in modern history markets have: - falling interest rates - AI inference + buildout There's a potential ~40% for XLU (1000%+ OTM), from mapping. Here's my macro thesis: 1. Rate Cuts When the Fed cuts rates without a recession, utility debt becomes cheaper, and institutional rotates low-yielding cash to for utility dividends. This causes immediate valuation multiple expansion: 1995: The S&P Utilities sector returned +31.3% in 1995 and another +12.1% in 1996 - ~47% cumulative return 2019 Mid-Cycle Cut: Result: XLU generated a +25.9% total return in that single year Standard soft-landing rate-cut cycle naturally maps to a 25% to 30% baseline return. And we're entering a new rate cut cycle in 2026. 2. The Infrastructure Supercycle Capex Infra CapEx gives the sector compounding earnings growth. Following the early 2000s, utilities entered a massive CapEx cycle to modernize aging grid infrastructure. Because they were constantly spending and expanding their guaranteed rate base, XLU returned +23.5% in 2004, +16.3% in 2005, +20.8% in 2006, and +18.4% in 2007. However this time: The $800B+ AI buildout of 2026 makes the 2004 grid modernization look like pennies. So you have Valuation Multiple Expansion (+15% to +20%), from rate cuts from #1. EPS growth (+18% to +20%) from #2 from capex spend historically. Just from a history lesson. But 2026 is the most unique moment in history from AI usage. Just from my own model projections as all former estimates are likely wrong from extreme AI ramp (eg. DOE/LBNL projections): Hyperscaler CapEx Inflows (Spend) - (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Oracle) into DCs est: 2024: $220 Billion 2025: $350 Billion 2026: $550 Billion 2027: $800 Billion 2028: $1.2 Trillion (Growth: +445% over 4 years) U.S. Data Center Power Usage: 2024: 190 TWh 2025: 280 TWh 2026: 430 TWh 2027: 650 TWh 2028: 980 TWh (Growth: +415% over 4 years) % of Total U.S. Electricity Consumed by AI: 2024: 4.5% of the U.S. grid 2025: 6.6% 2026: 8.2-10.2% 2027: 13.4-15.4% 2028: 21.3-23.3% Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Department of Energy seem off by AI usage (they're projecting ~12% by 2028) Physical Grid Capacity Demand: 2024: 18 GW 2025: 35 GW 2026: 65 GW 2027: 105 GW 2028: 160 GW Basically you can just see 2026 into 2028 being the inflection point whereas 2024-2025 where slower years on the ramp up. Then there's the "Desperation Premium" for independent companies. Because grid capacity is sold out, tech giants are paying massive premiums to utilities to cut the line. eg. PJM Interconnection (Virginia "Data Center Alley"), capacity prices spiked from $28.92 per MW-day in 2024 to an unfathomable $329.17 per MW-day for 2026/2027. $VST or Constellation are a large weighting in the ETF as independent power producers. Across the board, you can see the extreme ramp from 2026 (now) into 2028 compared to previous years, alongside extreme capex going into building the infrastructure. 2026 is the first time in modern market history that every single thing is firing at the same time for the boring grid/power sector with AI as the biggest tailwind. And as Elon quotes it: "Billions of dollars of the most advanced hardware. Sitting dark. Not because the chips won't work. Because there's not enough electricity to run on them". Again 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly due to AI and MMs have priced in historical IV (extremely flat ~14%-16%) for OTM calls. We're seeing an explosion in AI inference (beyond previous measurements) as well as training (per OpenAI report today). So the most boring sector on earth (power/grid), might just be the start of a major rally due to hyperscaler/gov spend into grid improvements -> extreme power consumption from AI inference/training -> rate cuts and others. This is just my personal thesis, options come with risk and magnifies downside too. These are also my own projections, no certainty if they will exceed or be lower than them. But basically: 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly. New bottleneck in the US is power. There's extreme demand from AI, extreme capex, rate cuts: $XLU looks like the best trade for exposure. Time will tell if this is right or not.

@aleabitoredditFeb 20, 2026 · 10:57 AM

@Sandeman52 Thanks! Biggest concentration in memory, photonics, and semi bottlenecks right now. Tons of random Japanese and Korean supply chain names like Nittobo and SK Hynix. Shifting a lot of my fintech positions into power like $XLU leaps + holding some $CVX leaps.

@aleabitoredditFeb 19, 2026 · 6:56 PM

@valleyinvesting Thanks, I do think $XLU is a once a generation type long due of AI creating critical importance to the boring grid sector. Don't think we've ever seen a shift like this in awhile and IV is pricing in historical averages (flat since the dawn of time). US will spend a lot to upgrade the grid and demand cannot be fulfilled from US hyperscalers. Usually high interest rates hurt, but there's the tailwind of additional rate cuts too. So, I do think this is a potential triple digit return long if my thesis plays out correctly.