$BRUN is surging today.
I loaded this morning on my Asymmetrical Bets fund ($16M AUM following) on @joinautopilot with a 20% allocation at $34.50.
Shoutout @mkfilko for inspiring me with his early work on the name at $11 (3x).
Here's why I think this $2B neocloud trading only 4x a non cancelable deal with one of the top private AI companies is attractive here.
1/ The catalyst.
On May 21 $BRUN signed a service agreement with Thinking Machines Lab.
$471.7M total contract value. 5,000 NVIDIA B300 GPUs 36 month initial term non cancelable, non refundable, pay for the full term REGARDLESS of usage.
2/ Who is Thinking Machines?
Mira Murati's lab - she's the former CTO of OpenAI.
Founded Feb 2025. Raised the largest seed in history five months later. $2B at a $12B valuation led by a16z, with NVIDIA, AMD, and Cisco in the round.
Reportedly raising again now at a $50B+ valuation.
4/ What it does to the book.
$BRUN came public with $940M in long term contracted revenue.
The TM deal adds ~50% overnight. Backlog is now ~$1.41B.
Signed, non cancelable contracts now annualize to ~$470M/yr at full deployment. That is NORTH of the entire $375M FY2026 exit ARR target. The floor just moved up.
5/ Backstory on the co.
Boost Run was founded 2023, Northbrook IL. Bare metal GPU compute for training and inference.
Came public May 11 via the Willow Lane SPAC. $134.5M proceeds, ZERO redemptions.
AI enabler with $26.9M FY25 revenue, +239% YoY guiding $375M exit ARR by end of FY26 125MW across 11 data centers when fully built.
Founder/CEO Andy Karos built Blue Fire Capital across 13 data centers in 7 countries, sold it to Galaxy Digital $GLXY in 2020.
Self funded Boost Run, brought his old team, holds a big stake.
7/ The validators are filthy:
- NVIDIA Preferred Cloud + Exemplar status on Blackwell (sub 10 provider club)
- $1.44B Dell supply agreement CDW channel into 250k+ regulated accounts Fluidstack partnership,
- $127M named Michael Dell name dropped them at Dell Tech World next to $CRWV and $IREN, names 8-27x its size
8/ Now the math. Why I bought after 90%+ move in 1 month.
At ~$34, $BRUN is ~$2.1B EV.
EV / FY27 ARR ($620M midpoint) = 3.4x.
$CRWV ~3.6x $NBIS ~7-8x
It trades at CoreWeave's multiple and a quarter of Nebius, though I think it could re-rate closer to $NBIS.
$NBIS premium is about clean capital structure and real margins, not GPUs. $BRUN guides FCF positive, lets Dell finance the buildout, and runs a take or pay book. It belongs in the Nebius bucket, not the CoreWeave one.
At ~$68, EV goes to ~$4.2B.
EV / FY27 ARR = ~6.8x.
$BRUN can 2x from my buy and still be under $NBIS.
DA Davidson just bumped their PT to $45 off the deal.
10/ Risks are real. The auditor flagged going concern, the 10-Q is late, management is young, and a lot now rides on a few anchor contracts. Only a few employees currently.
But it's FCF positive guided, NVIDIA blessed, and now the compute partner to Mira Murati.
The market is pricing $BRUN like CoreWeave. I think it ends up priced like Nebius.
Other trades made in the fund.
- Brand new $NOK - 20% of fund after more bullish insider buying, telecom as critical AI infra. Research and PTs on Substack.
- Trimmed Micron to 20% of fund from 30% after 150%
- Closed $BE after 200% to make room for fresher plays
- Closed $LASR and $CRCL with single digit losses.
$AAOI $MU $NOK $BRUN $PENG
