BREAKING: Microstrategy, $MSTR, earnings: - EPS: -$38.2, est: -$18 - Revenue: $124 million, est: $125 million Tempus AI, $TEM, earnings: - EPS: -$0.13, est: -$0.2 - Revenue: $348 million, est: $345 million
Longs always win. Here’s why time destroys shorts: - Time Is A Short Seller’s Enemy Every day a short is open → borrowing fees tick up Options decay against them The market can stay irrational longer than they can stay solvent - Markets Have A Built-In Upward Bias S&P 500 is up ~10% annually on average over 100 years Companies retain earnings, innovate, expand Inflation alone pushes nominal prices higher Shorts are literally fighting compounding - The Asymmetry Is Brutal For Shorts → Max gain for a short = 100% (stock goes to $0) → Max loss for a short = INFINITE (no ceiling on price) Longs? Unlimited upside. Capped downside. - Short Squeezes Are Real $GME. $AMC. $TSLA. $MSTR. Shorts get squeezed out. Longs get paid. One squeeze can erase years of short profits in days. - Even “Bad” Companies Recover $AAPL was left for dead in the 90s $AMZN was a “dot-com bubble stock” in 2001 $NVDA was a gaming chip company nobody cared about Patience + conviction > short thesis every time The Bottom Line: Shorts need to be RIGHT → on direction → on timing → on magnitude Longs just need to be RIGHT on direction and patient Time does the rest.
@halldj00 There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in. I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment. As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell. I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too. Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.
Overnight Market Shift — Risk Back on the Table Crude surged over 6% overnight, with $CL and $BZ ripping higher — driven by geopolitical tension and supply concerns. $ASTS −17% $RKLB −3% Crypto-linked names pulling back $MSTR −4% $COIN −3% $CRCL −3% Mega-cap tech showing weakness $MU −2% $TSLA −1% $NVDA −1% Energy strength + tech weakness is not noise.
The year is 2028. NASDAQ is celebrating 500 consecutive up days as Trump continually tweets about how great the deal with Iran will be, despite no additional talks having taken place in 2 years… Brent oil still trades at $100, though physical cargoes trade hands at $500 a barrel. Everyone thinks this is totally normal… Datacenters now consume $5 trillion of capital annually, despite producing only $50 billion of annual revenues. No one is quite sure how to monetize them, but they build them in the hope that someone else will crack the code… $MSTR ran out of letters in the alphabet for new preferred securities. The Ponzi is still failing… Private Credit vehicles have been gated for 3 years now. They trade on the secondary market at 10c of face. Marketing documents focus on the low realized volatility of PIK return streams… Europe is rolling out its 27th round of climate taxes as it desperately tries to stave off economic collapse…🤣
Overnight markets are ripping 🔥 Ceasefire news easing geopolitical tensions has flipped sentiment fast — risk is back ON. 🚀 Tech leading: $TSLA, $AMD, $META +4% $NVDA, $GOOG +3% ₿ Bitcoin back above $72K — crypto names flying: $HOOD +7%, $MSTR / $COIN +5% 💾 Memory stocks strong: $MU, $SNDK +7% 🌏 Asia reacting big: $Nikkei +4%, $KOSPI +5% Momentum is building… this could turn into a massive global risk-on move.
@whambamabraham I wouldn't touch $MSTR anymore because ETFs exist now. I used it to frontrun Bitcoin halving since $IBIT wasn't around back then. It was either that or long miners for Bitcoin exposure, and I got lucky choosing the right one.
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
@KaneCapz CPO scale up is 2027-2029.. for $TSEM, $SOI, $SIVE. Pluggable ramp is moreso until 2028. There’s clear timeframes for each trade and a thesis. I waited for $HOOD thesis to play out and sell for few hundred percent from $18. Waited for $MSTR bitcoin halving thesis to play out then sold for a few hundred percent (though a tad early). And used that to rotate into the names I have now
4. $MSTR - Upside: 101.82% - Bitcoin Industry - Market Cap: $49.24B - P/E: -9.7 - 5Y Rev CAGR: -0.1% - 5Y EPS CAGR: 187.2% High price target $540 Low Price target: $175 https://t.co/D3vruCqpTh
Since Q1 2021 - 5 Years Gold: $1800 to $4900 Leveraged Bitcoin: $131.50 to $131.50* *Microstrategy $MSTR -77% off the pump-athon highs.
I called the top on $MSTR back in November 2024 when it was $543… Since then $MSTR has seen a 68% decline and is now trading at a $170 stock valuation. Micro strategy’s market cap is now officially worth $10 Billion LESS than their $BTC holdings. This selloff isn’t over yet…
SPOT SILVER HITS NEW RECORD HIGH, SURPASSING OCTOBER PEAK - Bloomberg 2025 Got Hard Assets? Silver $SLV +85% Nvidia $NVDA +34% Leveraged Bitcoin $MSTR -40%
@WizDayTrader As you can read above, we are in a "bull" market, a speculative "bubble" with most asset classes ripping. Equities on / near all time high 2-3 weeks ago. The $MSTR underperformance in a bull market is jaw-dropping..
Last 600 Days, Bull Market, Asset Price "Bubble" we are told: Silver +103% Gold +86% Platinum +66% Copper Miners +46% Palladium +36% Nasdaq 100 +34% Bitcoin +21%* MicroStrategy -16%* *Beware of the pumpers at the highs, careful when you buy $MSTR $IBIT
“We've also grown BTC yield year after year through disciplined capital raises and immediate conversion into Bitcoin on our balance sheet, reflecting a 26% BTC yield year-to-date." $MSTR Q3-25 earnings call. Silly question - What is the definition of “yield?” https://t.co/ttbSiQIxr6
Since November 2024 The Era of Fiat Currency Debasement? Silver $SLV +65% Platinum $PLTM +65% Gold $GLD +54% Nuclear $NUKZ +51% Copper $COPX +48% Palladium $PALL +38% Bitcoin $IBIT +0% MicroStrategy $MSTR -60% *Bloomberg terminal data.
Broken Narratives - MicroStrategy $MSTR is -62% off the "Saylor is unstoppable, he can keep selling converts and buying back bitcoin forever" highs. https://t.co/xzkV4tfEDe
That’s a new 52-week low for $MSTR relative to Bitcoin. https://t.co/1SCJfFrBiG
The OG DAT, $MSTR, has seen its premium slide from 2-2.5x NAV to ~1.4x after unpopular financings & policy reversals broke the spell. If the pioneer with a cult following can’t keep the magic alive, no one can 3/8
When we wrote on $MSTR a year ago, the stock dropped -15% in 2hrs, we received 1k comments and reached ratio heaven (or hell?). Let’s see if we can beat those numbers later today
$MSTR another -7% today, with premium to NAV shrunk to 1.4x and heading lower. GN
Microstrategy $MSTR peaked relative to Bitcoin the day $IBIT options launched. It has been sliding ever since and now sits at a key polarity level. Do you think it will bounce and reclaim leadership, or is it no longer the go-to play for BTC? https://t.co/XGtmGvYzLf
Liquidity has been driving assets, especially Bitcoin. Digital asset treasury equities - like $MSTR - have been underperforming since late July with liquidity fleeting... Time to pay attention. Last Month Microstrategy -28% Bitcoin -7% (2) https://t.co/jL9PyMBWQ5
Why does MSTR lag BTC? $MSTR sees consistent call selling, as shown in FlowPatrol today with a big 8/22 385 x 405 call spread Whats funny about that, is this flow milks the fabled vol premium that Saylor could (was?) harvest in order to sell converts https://t.co/FEu29qwWRq
