JUNE 2026 PORTFOLIO UPDATE:
Numbers first. Then the breakdown.
MONTHLY PERFORMANCE
> Long-Term Port: -21.33%
> Short-Term Port: -10.78%
YTD PERFORMANCE
> Long-Term Port: +50.07%
> Short-Term Port: +167.07%
June was a grind. The AI sector took a real hit this month and that was felt across both accounts. Still, stepping back and looking at the YTD numbers, there's nothing to complain about. Both accounts are running well ahead of anything reasonable to expect from an index despite recent dips. This is what conviction-based investing actually looks like. Not every month is up 40%.
LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO — POSITION REFLECTIONS
$OUST — 20.2%
Quietly moved up to my largest allocation. I haven't added. This just reflects where price has taken it. The autonomous systems buildout is a long game and $OUST is well positioned in it. Still comfortable with the sizing.
$NBIS — 19.2%
Still one of my largest position and I have no interest in changing that. The dip in June has been noise relative to the fundamental story here. $399M in Q1 revenue, up 684% year-over-year. That number doesn't care about sentiment.
$RKLB — 14.1%
May was incredible for $RKLB and some of that has given back in June as the broader space sector cooled off after the SpaceX IPO buzz. Doesn't concern me at all. The contract pipeline is stronger than ever and $RKLB continues to prove it deserves its seat at the table. Space is a multi-year story.
$IREN — 13.1%
$IREN has been frustrating this month. Sentiment has turned against it in the short term and that's created some real pressure on the stock. But I couldn't help myself, I added more during this dip. The TA looks exceptional at these levels and the fundamental story on power + AI infrastructure is unchanged. Sometimes the best trades are the uncomfortable ones. This feels very uncomfortable right now.
$CIFR — 10.1%
Holding. The transition thesis toward AI compute infrastructure takes time to play out. June hasn't changed my mind on this one.
$ONDS — 9.1%
I'm down roughly 15% and $ONDS is underperforming as of now. That's the honest truth. But the execution is still there. Q1 revenue surged tenfold year-over-year to $50.1M and full-year guidance was raised to at least $390M. Sometimes price and fundamentals disconnect for a while. I've been here before. Not adding right now, but not going anywhere either.
$KRKNF — 7.1%
Also underperforming in the near term, I'm down -20%. Defense names have been mixed in June. The thesis on subsea battery and sonar dominance is still intact. This is a multi-year buildout story, not a monthly one. Holding and adding.
$AAOI — 7.1%
Honest take — if $ONDS and $KRKNF weren't down 15-20% right now, I'd be re-allocating more toward $AAOI going forward. The optical interconnect demand for AI data centers is real and I think this position deserves to grow. Something I hope to revisit when I have more flexibility.
SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO — POSITION REFLECTIONS
Two positions, both in space.
$ASTS — 55%
$ASTS came back into the short-term account and it's been the right call. The Blue Origin explosion in late May rattled the sector briefly but $ASTS bounced hard. The company has $3.5B in cash, $1.2B+ in contracted revenue, and is targeting 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by end of 2026. Still in this with high conviction.
$PL — 44%
Planet Labs is the newest addition. Initiated during the SpaceX/space sector dip in and it's already working. Last quarter was strong and I think the guidance was conservative. I expect this one to move slowly back towards ATH.
$SPCX — 1%
Tiny starter position in the SpaceX IPO vehicle. More of a placeholder than a conviction bet right now.
MACRO THOUGHTS — HEADING INTO JULY
June has been the worst month for me this year. Technology and communications lagged from near-term profit taking, while industrials, financials, and healthcare outperformed. That kind of rotation is healthy it doesn't signal the end of the AI trade, it signals a reset.
Now heading into July, the seasonal backdrop is as good as it gets. July has been positive 80% of the time over the last 20 years, with an average gain of 2.67%.
Over the last 10 years, it's been positive 100% of the time. The first half of July stands out as one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year, since 1928, the S&P 500 has advanced 69% of the time during the first half of July, generating an average return of 1.5% and an average rally of 3.2% when positive.
But the real catalyst in July is earnings. $GOOG reports July 22nd, with $MSFT, $META, and $AAPL all dropping results in the final week of July. $AMZN follows shortly after. FactSet is currently forecasting 22% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q2 which would mark the second straight quarter of earnings growth above 20%. If the hyperscalers confirm that AI capex is translating into real revenue, expect the growth names to come roaring back.
The AI sector dip in June was an expectations reset, not a thesis break. The structural demand drivers for AI infrastructure remain intact, with hyperscalers continuing to pour hundreds of billions into data centers. My positions haven't changed. My conviction hasn't changed.
July sets up well statistically. I'll sit tight, and let earnings do the talking.
Final note. Looking at the macro picture as of now, I expect the first signs of disinflation to show in September. But lets see.
-BP
As always, this is not financial advice. Do your own research. Always.
