It feels like I'm the most hated guy on X today.
So many people calling me a pumper, grifter, idiot, etc.
The reason is that I had a 70% position in $FCEL, published a lot of very bullish content on it, and then sold the position on Tuesday at market open.
Now people are concluding that I pumped a trash company, dumped it on my followers, and that's basically the grift.
Most people have now formed their opinion about me after reading posts that call me a grifter and won't read my version.
If you're one of them, fine, please block my account and I promise you'll never hear from me.
For those of you who do care about the facts and my version, here are some facts + timeline you can verify by yourself:
1. I flagged this stock to my X subscribers on May 20.
I first entered with a 20% position and then went a little crazy and increased it to 70% after I could confirm the Fairfax County filing confirms their connection to T5.
My entry price was between $18-$20.
I entered my position with the expectation that this news would lead to an immediate re-rating, as the market would now have to price in potential data center revenue for $FCEL.
This is massively bullish, because before that all data center connections were purely speculative.
T5 being a real potential customer was the first real-world demand confirmation.
It does not remove any of the other and very real risks that many smart people pointed out, but it was the first real-world data center demand verification.
That is just simply highly bullish for a stock priced as if they'd go out of business.
2. After $FCEL pumped like crazy and was up 30% on the day, it became a 76.55% position.
I made a post during that day that I hadn't sold a single share, and that was exactly what I did.
I held the entire day and didn't sell a share.
But I clearly shared with my X subscribers in many posts that a 76.55% position is not my long-term plan and that I do NOT feel comfortable with this much concentration, EVEN IF I'M VERY BULLISH.
People really don't get that I can be insanely bullish and still not want 76.55% concentration in one stock?
3. I recorded a podcast about $FCEL on Thursday 21st and published it Friday 22nd.
It was insanely bullish $FCEL, but also highlighted that the stock historically was absolutely horrible and that execution risks are real.
Overall, the podcast was highly bullish.
4. After many people saw the podcast, many people on X started pointing out all the risks in $FCEL.
How bad the company was to own historically, how much they dilute, how their tech is inferior, etc.
This did NOT change my mind at all.
I very clearly and openly shared both in public and paid posts to subscribers that this is 100% accurate.
This is not a company that has historically done well.
I explained my entire thesis is "perfect place, perfect time".
Basically, I think fuel cells are insanely great as a solution for inference data centers and every MW of available power will be bought up.
I am NOT betting on $FCEL execution.
And I also shared with subscribers that one thing that makes me very uncomfortable is that I owned more shares in the company than the CEO ^^'
5. From Thursday to Saturday I worked on my Substack Deep Dive, in which I made 3 things clear:
1) I will not hold my 76.55% long-term and will absolutely trim.
2) For long-term holders, I simply recommend holding.
3) For traders like myself, I wrote:
"Technically, the stock is far above its 8EMA [8-day exponential moving average], which is the red line at around $21. That is usually a point where I personally like to reduce exposure and potentially buy back closer to the 8EMA."
6. That is exactly what I did.
Since US markets were closed on Monday, I waited for Tuesday and sold my $FCEL position, waiting to buy it back with 10-20% of my portfolio at the 8EMA.
Guess what the local bottom of today was and what price point provided a picture-perfect entry?
The 8EMA at $22.42.
The people who listened to my call, made a lot of money from it.
7. I removed the paywall of my $FCEL article from Saturday so that you can be your own judge and verify that I wrote what I claim here.
Link in comment.
Conclusion:
1. I'm still just as bullish $FCEL and didn't change my view AT ALL.
2. The suggested trade of selling at market open and buying back at the 8EMA worked out almost perfectly.
3. I very clearly flagged that I do NOT plan to hold a 70% position long-term.
This was for the catalyst, the T5 connection.
5-10%, max 20%, is what I shared in my Substack as a good long-term position size.
4. A 10-20% position for me is still a 7-figure amount.
If you think that means I now suddenly turned bearish or lost my conviction and this is what a pump and dump looks like, okay.
5. A couple of people wrote "he did the same thing with $CGEH a few weeks ago".
I really wanted to avoid this topic, because I don't want to spread FUD about companies on X.
$IREN investors already hate me ^^
But $CGEH is really different.
I initiated a position and was super bullish, but after I researched the company more, I litrally only found bad news. Every additional info I got, was purely negative.
There are 2 quite known investors on X who interviewed management and what they shared with me is BAD.
The only reason why I don't share every detail here is because I don't want to violate their trust and share publicly what they told me privately.
That would potentially create backlash for them and potentially make it harder for them to get the chance to interview other managements...
To those 2, you know who you are, it would highly appreciate if you could out yourself in the comments, if you feel comfortable with that.
Where I fucked up:
I 100% made a big fuck-up:
I only shared the trade idea to sell at the market open and buy back at the 8EMA with my Substack subscribers, not my X subscribers.
That was a mistake.
I simply forgot to add that trade idea to my TL;DR thesis post for X subscribers.
I apologize for this and it was 100% my mistake.
One more personal thought:
Thank you to all the people who stood up for me and defended me today or sent me nice DMs!
I can't tag you all, but much love to all of you! ❤️
I was at a business lunch in Zürich with a friend and could only observe the drama unfold from my phone.
What really annoys me is that the guy who called me a grifter is someone I massively pushed, supported, and helped to get rank 1 on Substack.
I gave him my platform, only asked questions in a way that would make him look smart, and then after he asked me many times to please please please push and promote him on X, I was super happy to do exactly that.
I showed him nothing but love and support.
His followers more than doubled because of me and he instantly got to #1 rising in Finance on Substack the next day.
I blocked some people on X that were dickheads.
Today, one of them probably then instantly went to him and said something like "Daniel sold all his $FCEL shares".
Without any of the context that I plan to hold a long-term 10-20% position and pre-announced I would trim already on Saturday?
He then instantly publicly started talking shit about me without even sending me a DM or verifying anything?
It is now clear to me that this person successfully used me for my platform, got a lot of followers, and wanted to start that drama.
When people on X call me a grifter or something else, you have to understand why I often will NOT reply in the future. I can only lose.
If I don't reply, I'm a liar.
If I do reply, they get all the reach and promotion, which is their main target.
That's also why you see many accounts currently making it their new identity to hate on bigger accounts like Serenity.
Sometimes they might truly catch a mistake or rightfully challenge aggressive assumptions, but the main target is very dishonest and clearly to get reach and followers.
Again: bigger accounts can't really win. They don't reply - they look like liars. They do reply - they push the smaller account, which is what the people calling bigger accounts out often want.
For me it's simple: I will never interact with this person again.
My returns are significantly better, publicly verified by a 3rd party and I have a big network of AI executives.
I was planning to share my reach, research and connections for free with that person and push them and support with 0 expectations in return.
Now I obviously won't do that.
I hope you think the engagement you got today was worth it.
Lastly I want to say that I 100% will learn from this and probably make a few adjustments.
1. I will probably simply not share my trades publicy anymore. The confusion stemming from the mix of information I share with Subscribers and free followers is too big. I will simply share thoughts and insights publicy, not positions, my portfolio or trade ideas.
2. I will probably also make a clean separation between my Substack for deep dives and long term ideas and thoughts and my X subscription for simple trade alerts.
Sorry this was super long, thank you if anyone actually read it ^^
