$CSCO EXECUTIVE CALL SUMMARY: Cisco Systems Inc (05/13/26)
Cisco delivered a materially positive Q3 FY26 call, with the investment debate shifting further from “legacy networking recovery” toward “AI infrastructure scale, campus refresh durability, and margin absorption under hardware mix pressure.” The quarter was strong on reported results and stronger on orders. Revenue reached a record $15.8B, up 12% YoY, above the high end of guidance. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.06, up 10% YoY, also above the high end of guidance. Product revenue grew 17%, led by Networking revenue up 25%, while product orders grew 35% and remained broad-based even after excluding hyperscaler demand, with ex-hyperscaler product orders up 19%. The quality of demand was better than a simple AI-driven hyperscaler spike: Enterprise product orders grew 18%, Public Sector grew 27%, and all geographies posted double-digit product order growth. The key caveat is that order growth was not purely unit-driven; management disclosed that price increases accounted for 4 to 5 points of the acceleration in ex-webscale order growth, and acknowledged some pull-ahead, though characterized it as modest.
The most important incremental message was the step-up in AI infrastructure expectations. Cisco raised expected FY26 hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders to approximately $9B from the prior $5B target and raised expected FY26 hyperscaler AI infrastructure revenue to approximately $4B from $3B. Hyperscaler AI orders reached $1.9B in Q3 and $5.3B YTD, already exceeding the prior full-year target with 1 quarter remaining. The new FY26 target implies approximately $3.7B of Q4 hyperscaler AI orders, a large sequential acceleration, which management framed as non-linear but supported by design wins, optics strength, and Silicon One adoption. Management also said it is “reasonable to expect” at least $6B of hyperscaler AI revenue in FY27, which creates a tangible bridge from order strength into next-year revenue growth, though it is not formal FY27 guidance.
The quarter also strengthened the campus refresh narrative. Campus networking orders grew more than 25% YoY, wireless orders grew more than 40% YoY, Wi-Fi 7 represented half of the wireless mix, and data center switching orders grew more than 40% YoY. Management linked enterprise demand to AI inference, agentic workloads, network modernization, and security hardening rather than only cyclical replacement. The company presentation also highlighted a pre-Catalyst 9K installed base in the tens of billions of dollars nearing end of support, which supports a multi-year refresh thesis. This is important because the stock can work better if investors conclude that Cisco’s growth is not solely hyperscaler concentration risk but also includes a large enterprise and campus modernization cycle.
Margins were the main offset. Non-GAAP gross margin declined 260 bps YoY to 66.0%, and product gross margin declined 330 bps YoY to 64.3%, driven primarily by negative mix and higher memory costs, partly offset by productivity improvements and pricing. Management said gross margins have stabilized, with Q4 non-GAAP gross margin guided to 65.5% to 66.5%, but the mix shift toward hardware and AI infrastructure is structurally less favorable than a software-led mix. Operating discipline protected earnings quality: non-GAAP operating margin was 34.2%, only down 30 bps YoY, as non-GAAP operating expenses fell to 31.9% of revenue from 34.1% a year ago. The implication is that Cisco can absorb gross margin pressure for now through price, supply-chain productivity, scale, and opex discipline, but the model is becoming more dependent on hardware execution and supply availability.
Security remained mixed. Core security orders excluding Splunk grew double digits, firewalls grew strong double digits, and more than 1,000 new customers purchased new products including Secure Access, XDR, Hypershield, and AI Defense in Q3. However, Security revenue was flat as new and refreshed products continued to be offset by prior-generation declines and the Splunk transition from on-premise deals to cloud subscriptions. Management sounded more constructive on the organic security portfolio than in prior periods, stating that the legacy drag was less severe than in the first half and that the company remains on pace to exit FY26 approaching double-digit revenue growth in organic Cisco security. Splunk remains a revenue headwind near term, and FY27 performance will depend heavily on whether the cloud mix shift stabilizes.
The guidance was strong. Q4 revenue guidance of $16.7B to $16.9B implies a record quarter, approximately 6% sequential revenue growth at the midpoint versus Q3, and management stated that it implies 14.5% top-line growth. Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.16 to $1.18 implies approximately 10% sequential growth at the midpoint. FY26 revenue guidance of $62.8B to $63.0B and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $4.27 to $4.29 indicate Cisco is positioned for its strongest year ever and for double-digit top-line and bottom-line growth. Prior full-year revenue and EPS guidance values were not disclosed in the provided material, so the magnitude of the full-year guidance raise cannot be quantified beyond management’s statement that FY26 guidance was raised.
The stock implication is positive but not without quality debate. The call likely supports upward revisions to revenue estimates for Q4, FY26, and FY27, particularly in AI infrastructure and Networking. It also supports a higher strategic narrative multiple if investors increasingly view Cisco as a beneficiary of AI networking, coherent optics, and enterprise inference rather than a mature campus networking incumbent. The principal risk is that the mix of growth is becoming more hardware-heavy, more hyperscaler-influenced, more supply-chain dependent, and more exposed to memory inflation and inventory commitments. The call was therefore positive on demand, positive on revenue visibility, positive on AI relevance, mixed on gross margin quality, and still inconclusive on Security/Splunk.
QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE AND QUALITY OF RESULTS
Q3 FY26 was a high-quality top-line quarter, with record revenue of $15.8B, up 12% YoY, above the high end of guidance. Product revenue was $12.1B, up 17%, and Services revenue was $3.7B, down 1%, primarily due to timing of service contract start dates. The growth engine was clearly product-led and heavily skewed toward Networking, AI infrastructure, campus refresh, and data center switching. Services weakness was not framed as demand deterioration, but the negative growth in Services and the modest growth in software and ARR reduce the “quality” of the quarter from a recurring-revenue perspective.
Networking was the standout contributor. Networking revenue was $8.8B, up 25% YoY, reflecting accelerating growth in AI infrastructure and campus refresh. Security revenue was $2.0B, flat YoY. Collaboration revenue was $1.0B, down 1%, with Webex declines partly offset by devices. Observability revenue was $269M, up 3%. Services revenue was $3.7B, down 1%. This mix indicates Cisco’s growth was not broad across all reported revenue categories; it was highly concentrated in Networking and product-led infrastructure. That concentration is positive if the AI and campus cycles prove durable, but it creates margin and cyclicality questions because the fastest-growing areas are more hardware-intensive.
Product orders were the most important performance metric in the quarter. Total product orders grew 35% YoY, and excluding hyperscaler orders grew 19%. This is materially stronger than reported revenue growth and gives Q4 and FY27 greater visibility. Management emphasized broad-based strength: Americas product orders grew 35%, EMEA grew 39%, and APJC grew 25%. By customer market, Enterprise grew 18%, Public Sector grew 27%, and Service Provider & Cloud grew 105%. The breadth matters because it reduces the risk that the quarter was solely a hyperscaler AI order spike. However, the Service Provider & Cloud growth rate was the largest driver and was clearly lifted by hyperscaler AI demand.
The order quality had several positive attributes. First, growth was broad across geographies and customer segments. Second, Networking product orders grew more than 50%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in the portfolio. Third, enterprise data center switching orders grew more than 40%, suggesting enterprise AI and private data center infrastructure are contributing, not only public cloud. Fourth, campus orders grew more than 25%, and wireless orders reached a record level, up more than 40%. These data points support a multi-cycle demand environment: hyperscaler AI, enterprise AI readiness, campus modernization, and security-driven infrastructure refresh.
The order quality also had caveats. Management acknowledged some pull-ahead into Q3 and disclosed that price increases contributed 4 to 5 points of acceleration in ex-webscale product order growth. Ex-webscale order growth accelerated from 10% in Q2 to 19% in Q3, meaning approximately half of the 9-point acceleration was price-related. Management also said pipeline pull-forward from Q4 into Q3 did not differ meaningfully from the prior-year pattern and that the Q4 pipeline did not degrade during Q3. The practical conclusion is that order strength was real, but not purely volume-driven. Price, tariff/memory responses, and customer behavior ahead of supply constraints likely contributed.
Gross margin was the main negative in the results. Non-GAAP gross margin was 66.0%, down 260 bps YoY and 150 bps sequentially. Non-GAAP product gross margin was 64.3%, down 330 bps YoY and 210 bps sequentially. Management attributed product gross margin pressure primarily to negative mix and higher memory costs, partly offset by productivity improvements. Management later clarified that mix was the larger of the 2 factors, with memory also important. This matters because mix pressure is less transitory than spot component inflation if AI infrastructure and hardware remain the growth engines.
Operating leverage was strong. Non-GAAP operating margin was 34.2%, down only 30 bps YoY despite the 260 bps decline in total non-GAAP gross margin. Non-GAAP operating income was a record $5.4B. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $5.0B, flat sequentially and equal to 31.9% of revenue, down from 34.1% in the prior-year quarter. This indicates Cisco used opex discipline and revenue scale to offset hardware mix and memory pressure. The earnings beat therefore appears higher quality than the gross margin decline alone would suggest, because the company preserved operating margin while investing in AI, security, optics, and silicon.
Cash flow quality was mixed. Operating cash flow was $3.8B, down 7% YoY, due to continued investments to meet growing demand, especially in AI infrastructure. Cash, cash equivalents, and investments ended at $16.6B. Inventory increased to $4.7B from $2.8B a year ago and $3.9B in Q2 FY26. Inventory purchase commitments increased to $16.0B from $6.3B a year ago and $10.1B in Q2 FY26. Combined inventory and purchase commitments increased by approximately $6.7B over 90 days and approximately $11.6B YoY, consistent with management’s comments. This is strategically rational if AI orders convert as expected and supply remains tight, but it raises working capital, execution, and obsolescence risk.
Capital allocation remained shareholder-friendly. Cisco returned $2.9B to shareholders in Q3, including $1.7B in dividends and $1.3B in repurchases. The company repurchased 16M shares at an average price of $80.28 and had $9.6B remaining under the repurchase authorization. The dividend per share was $0.42. Capital return remains a core part of the equity story, but the incremental investment debate is now less about buybacks and more about whether AI infrastructure can re-rate Cisco’s growth profile without structurally diluting margins.
Recurring metrics were not as strong as headline revenue and orders. Total RPO was $43.5B, up 4%, decelerating from 5% growth in Q2 FY26 and 7% growth in Q3 FY25. Product RPO was $22.1B, up 6%, and Services RPO was $21.4B, up 2%. ARR was $31.2B, up 2%; Product ARR was $17.5B, up 4%; Services ARR was $13.8B, down 1%. Total subscription revenue was $7.8B, representing 49% of revenue, but was down modestly YoY and sequentially. Software revenue was $5.7B, up only 1%. These metrics show that the strongest growth is not coming from recurring software expansion. That is a valuation consideration because the market may reward the AI growth narrative but apply a lower multiple if growth is viewed as hardware-heavy and less recurring.
SEGMENT AND PRODUCT ANALYSIS
Networking is the core of the current investment case. Networking revenue of $8.8B grew 25% YoY, and networking product orders grew more than 50%. Management cited triple-digit growth in service provider routing and compute, double-digit growth in data center switching, campus switching, wireless, enterprise routing, and industrial IoT. This performance suggests Cisco is participating in multiple infrastructure cycles at once: hyperscaler AI networking, data center switching, campus modernization, wireless refresh, routing, and industrial edge. The strongest evidence of acceleration is that the networking portfolio has now posted 7 consecutive quarters of double-digit order growth.
Hyperscaler AI infrastructure was the most important product theme. Q3 hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders were $1.9B, compared with $600M in the prior-year period. YTD hyperscaler AI orders were $5.3B, already above the prior FY26 expectation of $5B. Management raised expected FY26 hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders to approximately $9B, implying a 4.5x increase versus FY25’s $2B total. Management also raised expected FY26 hyperscaler AI revenue to approximately $4B from $3B. The magnitude of this raise is the single most important change in the call because it provides an order-backed basis for revenue revisions and for a more durable AI networking narrative.
Silicon One is central to the hyperscaler thesis. Cisco disclosed 3 systems design wins in Q3: 2 Silicon One P200-powered systems for major scale-across use cases and 1 Silicon One G200-powered system for a scale-out use case. Management also disclosed that a third hyperscaler P200 scale-across design win occurred in early Q4. The Silicon One portfolio spans integrated access, services router, enterprise switch, scale-across data center, and scale-within data center use cases, with the presentation highlighting P200 at 51.2T and G300 at 102.4T. Management’s message was that differentiated silicon is now a prerequisite for relevance with hyperscalers. This is strategically important because it positions Cisco as more than a system integrator and gives the company more control over product roadmap, supply chain, and differentiation.
Acacia was the other major AI product driver. Acacia generated more than $1B in orders in Q3, up triple digits YoY, and management said the business is on track to grow more than 200% YoY in FY26. The presentation highlighted more than 750,000 coherent 400G port shipments and more than 40,000 coherent 800G port shipments. Acacia’s role is particularly important in scale-across AI data center architectures, where coherent optics are required to connect GPUs across multiple data centers. The presentation described scale-across as a 14x bandwidth multiplier relative to conventional WAN/DCI connectivity. This creates a credible mechanism for sustained optics demand as AI workloads become distributed across campuses and regions rather than confined to single clusters.
Enterprise data center switching was also strong. Orders grew more than 40% YoY and have grown double digits in 7 of the past 9 quarters. Nexus switch orders tagged for AI deployments were up almost 50% sequentially in Q3. This is an important detail because it supports the view that enterprise AI infrastructure is beginning to move from concept to procurement. It also helps address the risk that Cisco’s AI story is entirely hyperscaler-driven. The enterprise AI ramp remains earlier-stage than hyperscaler orders, but the order trajectory and pipeline suggest a potentially meaningful second leg.
Campus networking is in a major refresh cycle. Campus networking orders grew more than 25% YoY, with the next-generation portfolio ramping faster than prior product launches. Management cited modern Wi-Fi, multi-gig switching, AI-driven traffic growth, and end-of-support dynamics as demand drivers. The presentation highlighted recently launched Smart Switch orders growing triple digits sequentially in Q3, Wi-Fi 7 orders continuing to grow high double digits sequentially, and Wi-Fi 7 demand generating bundled demand for multi-gig switches. The presentation also disclosed that the pre-Catalyst 9K installed base is in the tens of billions of dollars and nearing end of support. This provides a concrete installed-base replacement mechanism, not merely a high-level AI traffic story.
Wireless was particularly strong. Cisco reported its highest-ever wireless orders, up more than 40% YoY. Wi-Fi 7 represented half of the wireless mix in Q3 and grew strong double digits sequentially. This supports a campus upgrade cycle driven by device density, AI-enabled applications, and higher throughput requirements. Wireless strength also matters because it can pull through switching, security, and management software. The durability of wireless demand will depend on whether Wi-Fi 7 adoption remains early and whether enterprise budgets continue prioritizing edge modernization.
Industrial IoT posted its strongest quarter ever and has now grown double digits for 8 consecutive quarters. Management cited manufacturing and utilities in the presentation and also linked future demand to onshoring of manufacturing, agentic AI, and physical AI. This is a smaller part of Cisco’s total revenue than core Networking, but it is strategically relevant because industrial networks are likely to require secure connectivity, edge compute, and deterministic performance as automation and physical AI adoption increase.
Security remains in transition. Security revenue was flat at $2.0B. Core security excluding Splunk posted double-digit order growth, and the new/refreshed portfolio grew double digits, including strong double-digit firewall order growth. More than 1,000 new customers purchased new security products in Q3, bringing total net new customers to approximately 5,000 since launch. However, prior-generation declines continued to offset growth, and Splunk’s shift from on-premise deals to cloud subscriptions created a near-term revenue drag. The business is improving but has not yet translated order momentum and product refresh into reported revenue acceleration.
Splunk is a key swing factor for FY27. Management said the expected acceleration in the shift to cloud subscriptions and away from on-premise deals continued in Q3 and is expected to continue in Q4. Cisco remains on track to exceed 1,000 new Splunk customer logos in FY26. Management said the cloud mix shifted another 2 to 3 points in Q3 versus Q2 and that FY27 depends on whether the mix shift stabilizes. If it stabilizes, revenue comparisons should improve as Cisco laps the transition. If it continues to accelerate, revenue growth could remain suppressed even if customer adoption is healthy.
Collaboration remains a drag. Collaboration revenue declined 1%, with Webex declines partially offset by device growth. The call did not present Collaboration as a strategic growth driver. The segment appears stable to slightly declining and is not central to the investment debate. Any upside from devices is likely insufficient to change the overall Cisco thesis without a broader Webex reacceleration that was not evident in the provided material.
Observability grew 3% to $269M, but the call focused far more on Splunk’s cloud transition than on standalone observability revenue. Observability remains strategically important because it intersects with security operations, AI monitoring, and Splunk, but the reported segment growth was modest. The current issue is not product relevance; it is the revenue recognition and mix transition from on-premise to cloud subscription.
Geographically, the Americas generated $9.6B of revenue, up approximately 14% YoY and 8% sequentially, but gross margin fell to 63.7% from 67.7% a year ago and 65.8% in Q2. EMEA generated $4.1B, up approximately 9% YoY but down sequentially from $4.4B, with gross margin of 71.3%. APJC generated $2.2B, up approximately 9% YoY and 11% sequentially, with gross margin of 66.1%. Product order growth was broad geographically, with EMEA orders up 39%, Americas up 35%, and APJC up 25%. The regional order breadth reduces macro concentration risk, though Americas margin pressure appears most pronounced.
