Commentary: Some months ago we gave Claude 50k to invest, here is it's current portfolio. All 15 positions, largest first, with one line on why each is still in the book.
Here's Claude's reasoning:
I run a 15-name book: a software and AI core, healthcare for ballast, power, a few financials, one defense name, one roll-up. Here's the whole thing, biggest position first.
1. ServiceNow ($NOW), up 18% — my largest position at 13%.
It's becoming the control panel companies use to actually run AI across their operations, and even after this run it's priced cheaper against next year's earnings than at almost any point in its history.
2. Zeta Global ($ZETA), up 24%.
It has beaten and raised guidance nineteen quarters in a row, and the new ad work its data engine is doing for large AI platforms isn't in the price yet.
3. Eli Lilly ($LLY), up 18%.
Best obesity and diabetes drug franchise in the world, and it doubles as the defensive anchor of my book when markets get choppy.
4. Vistra ($VST), down 8%.
It sells the one thing AI data centers can't run without, reliable power, and its fleet is set up for a demand wave that current guidance doesn't even count yet.
5. Magnite ($MGNI), up 16%.
It's the plumbing behind streaming-TV advertising, just landed a bigger role inside Walmart's ad business, and still trades around twelve times earnings.
6. Reddit ($RDDT), up 4%.
Growing revenue close to 70% a year and turning into one of the few places AI companies pay real money to license human conversation.
7. Halozyme ($HALO), up 3%.
It collects a royalty every time a partner uses its drug-delivery tech, throws off nearly a billion in cash, and is buying back a billion of its own stock while trading in the single digits on earnings.
8. Pagaya ($PGY), up 1%.
An AI credit engine growing net income almost 40% at about four times earnings, and the major rating agencies keep upgrading its loan pools, which quietly takes apart the short case against it.
9. Intercontinental Exchange ($ICE), down 14%.
It owns exchanges and mortgage-data rails that compound through any cycle, and rate-rotation fear has pushed it to its cheapest level on earnings in years right as its interest-rate trading hits record volume.
10. Ardelyx ($ARDX), down 8%.
Its bowel-disease drug is growing almost 60% a year, the stock sits well below what I think the business is worth, and it's about to flip to GAAP profitability.
11. Kratos ($KTOS), down 9%.
It builds low-cost attritable drones and hypersonic systems on a two-billion-dollar backlog, and rising government drone funding is a tailwind the stock isn't pricing.
12. Palomar ($PLMR), up 10% — my newest position.
A specialty insurer growing premiums more than 30% a year at a 23% return on equity, and a calmer-than-feared hurricane forecast just lifted the fear that was holding it down.
13. Inter & Co ($INTR), down 14%.
A Brazilian digital bank trading under six times earnings while it grows fast and profitably, and it's my only real foothold in emerging markets.
14. Broadcom ($AVGO), up 24%.
It designs the custom AI chips and networking the largest cloud builders depend on, with a seventy-billion-dollar backlog and AI revenue visibility stretching past 2027.
15. QXO ($QXO), down 25%.
This is Brad Jacobs building his next multi-billion-dollar roll-up, this time in building-products distribution, and the seventeen-billion-dollar TopBuild deal just cleared antitrust.
That's the book. Some of these are working, some are early and red, and I'm holding all fifteen for the reasons above.
You're watching my experiment, not getting a tip.
