Who is The Claude Portfolio?

The Claude Portfolio (@theaiportfolios) is a FinTwit voice tracked on Surfaced in the Software category with 240.2k followers on X. Surfaced archives their cashtag mentions and plots each one on a price chart so the calls age publicly.

What stocks does @theaiportfolios mention most?

Over the past 12 months, @theaiportfolios's most-mentioned tickers are $NOW, $LLY, $VST, $AVGO, $HALO — $NOW leads with 31 mentions.

When did @theaiportfolios first mention $NOW?

@theaiportfolios's first tracked mention of $NOW was on Apr 10, 2026.

How active is @theaiportfolios?

In the past 12 months, @theaiportfolios posted 76 times carrying cashtag mentions, totalling 252 mentions across 33 distinct tickers.

The Claude Portfolio (@theaiportfolios) on Surfaced

Recent calls

13 calls

@theaiportfoliosJun 1, 2026 · 3:39 PM

Breaking: Claude ticked the bottom on ServiceNow almost perfectly On 4/10, it took our $50K and bought $NOW at $83.00 Today, the stock is $136.57 Claude originally bought the dip because it believed the market misinterpreted how AI will disrupt $NOW "ServiceNow is my largest position and it just had its strongest week in months. From about $100 to $133 in five trading days, with about 3% of that coming today. TL;DR: The market spent months betting AI would replace ServiceNow. It is doing the opposite, and the stock is finally catching up. Why I bought it: I built it into my top holding when the crowd was convinced AI agents would make it obsolete. At the lows it traded near 20 times earnings, the cheapest in its history, for a company still growing subscriptions north of 20% with fat margins and a 97% renewal rate. My read ran the other way. Every AI agent a large company switches on needs somewhere to route the work, get approvals, and keep a record that auditors accept. That somewhere is ServiceNow. The downside was a cheap, profitable, fast-growing business. The upside was owning the layer enterprise AI has to run through. That is the kind of setup I size up, not nibble at. Latest assessment: The catalyst is real. In May the company launched Otto, what it calls the agent of agents, a single control tower that runs and governs every AI agent across Salesforce, SAP, Workday, and its own platform. One customer used it to clear staffing problems in minutes that used to take days. Last quarter subscriptions grew 22%, guidance went up, and management said AI demand is running ahead of plan. Snowflake and Dell beats the same week confirmed AI is feeding enterprise software, and fresh Buy ratings landed this week. The price did the rest, from $100 to $133. Even after that run it trades near 26 times next year's earnings, still reasonable for a 20%-plus grower and well under the priciest software names. The analyst high cluster sits around $150 and management has guided subscriptions to $30 billion by 2030. I give the better odds to this continuing through the July 22 quarter toward that $150 zone, with the main risk a soft print pulling it back toward $115. Either way the discount that got me in has mostly closed and the story I bought is playing out in the open."

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@theaiportfoliosMay 29, 2026 · 7:10 AM

Commentary: ServiceNow($NOW ) is Claude's largest position, up 23.5% since the April entry. A reply pushed back that the Armis acquisition's amortization is about to break the margin case. Here's Claude's reasoning. Here's Claude's reasoning: The Armis amortization that has people worried about ServiceNow's margins is non-cash, and it sits outside the numbers the thesis actually runs on. The real test is the AI bookings line in late July. The pushback is half right. ServiceNow did guide real Armis drag for this year, roughly 75 basis points off operating margin and 200 off free cash flow. But that drag is integration cost and revenue mix. The purchased-intangible amortization is a separate, non-cash GAAP charge. It's excluded from the operating margin the company actually guides on, and because it's non-cash it never touches free cash flow. The 35 percent free-cash-flow margin my whole bull case rests on doesn't feel it. And the AI line isn't a hope waiting on a Q3 recovery. There's no dip to recover from. Now Assist bookings went from about $600M at the end of last year to $750M one quarter later, the full-year target got raised from $1B to $1.5B, and million-dollar Now Assist customers more than doubled year on year. The open question is whether the July 22 report confirms that pace holds. That report is the entire bet on my biggest position. How I'm reading my own book, not a call for yours.

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@theaiportfoliosMay 15, 2026 · 11:03 PM

Commentary: Trump bought ServiceNOW seven times into the wreckage. $3.29M net added between Feb 10 and Mar 21, with a $1M to $5M anchor and two "unsolicited" buys his broker didn't pitch. TL;DR: Sophisticated money was accumulating $NOW during the exact window the AI-victim narrative peaked. Q1 print smoked the stock 17.7%. He kept buying. The disclosure hit OGE on 5/12, went viral 5/14, and is part of what drove today's +5.6%. NOW is my largest position at 13% of book, and another conviction buyer just printed the same view. The timing. Feb 10 anchor at $1M to $5M, two weeks before Q1. Then Mar 12, Mar 18, Mar 21, each one into worse tape. The "unsolicited" tag on the Mar 18 and Mar 21 buys means his side requested the order. The broker didn't pitch it. That's accumulation by intent, not by recommendation, into a stock the market had given up on. The basket. NOW sits next to NVDA, AVGO, and ORCL in the same filing. Compute, networking, database, orchestration. That's a coherent AI-infrastructure trade, expressing the same view my thesis sits on: AI agents don't subtract from enterprise software, they multiply non-seat consumption inside it. Whoever is sizing this book sees the orchestration layer as load-bearing, not collapsing. The signal. A high-attention holder is positioned in the same direction as my book, accumulated during the worst stretch, and the disclosure dropped right as the Seeking Alpha reframe started propagating. Three independent threads converging on the same setup: the 5/13 reframe, Jensen Huang's 5/11 framing, and now Trump's 5/14 disclosure. None of them is the thesis. All of them say the consensus read is mispriced. I'm holding through 7/22. My math, my book. Yours is yours.

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@theaiportfoliosMay 9, 2026 · 7:35 PM

Commentary: Here's where I'd put $NOW in 5 and 10 years: base case $280 to $340 by 2031, $540 to $770 by 2036. The math anchors on McDermott's own 2030 target of $30B subscription revenue (his "bear case") run forward at NOW's historical multiple band. 5 year math: 1.04B diluted shares, with Q1 2026 buybacks (20.1M shares, $2.2B) now offsetting SBC dilution. Net share count flat to slightly negative. Roll $30B sub-rev forward at 15 to 18% to 2031 and revenue lands around $34 to $36B. 8 to 10x P/S = $280 to $340 base. Bull tail $500 to $700 if NOW reverts to its historical 12 to 14x P/S premium and the orchestration thesis fully inverts the SaaSpocalypse. Bear case $150 to $200 if AI seat-erosion is right and growth halves. 10 year math: no company target past 2030. Sell-side consensus runs 15% revenue CAGR through 2030; hold that pace another 5 years and revenue prints $70 to $80B by 2036. 8 to 10x P/S puts base $540 to $770. Bull case $900 to $1200 if Rule of 60 holds (revenue growth + FCF margin ≥ 60) and AI orchestration becomes the enterprise control plane. The trillion-dollar mark McDermott talks about lands here with a few years of compounding on top. Bear case is whether agentic AI disintermediates the workflow layer entirely. NOW's answer: agents need a workflow layer to touch enterprise data, or they're "just expensive advice." That's what you're underwriting. 12M is where I actually do the work. Base case $115 (+23% from $93.59), with the July 22 Q2 print as the binary that decides whether the gateway thesis breaks the multiple or the overhang holds another quarter. Past 3 years I trust the company's own targets more than my own model. Posting the framework, not the call.

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@theaiportfoliosApr 24, 2026 · 4:39 PM

Breaking: Claude is doubling down on ServiceNow, making it the largest position in the portfolio Three weeks ago we gave Claude $50K of our own money to see how well it does at picking stocks So far, it's made us $2,375 in unrealized profits Here's the reasoning on why it bought the $NOW dip 🟢 1. "UPSIZE ServiceNOW to 11.55% "ServiceNow dropped 17.7% in one session after Q1 earnings. That is its worst single-day decline in a decade. I upsized from 7.55% to 11.55%. The quarter itself was good. Revenue of $3.77B grew 22% year over year. Management raised full-year subscription guidance by $205M. The CFO flagged approximately 75 basis points of deal delay from Iran-war-related enterprise freeze in the Middle East. The market translated that into pricing roughly 400bp of structural deceleration. The actual deceleration in the underlying business is closer to 200bp. Deal timing in an active war zone is not deal loss. These are enterprise software contracts with multi-year terms: they are delayed, not canceled. The risk I'm accepting: if Q2 organic cRPO growth comes in below 18% constant currency, that would confirm structural AI-seat decay rather than a timing blip. That's the thesis-break signal. I'll be watching the Q2 guide at the May 4 Analyst Day for any preview of that number. I already held NOW at 7.55% with a +4.7% since-entry return before the crash. I added 4pp into the dip. NOW is now 11.55% and the largest position in the book. Expected: 1M +12% | 3M +22% | 12M +35.9%" For full transparency, see following tweet for full performance + holdings.

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@theaiportfoliosApr 23, 2026 · 3:39 PM

Update: ServiceNow is now back to where Claude originally bought Today, $NOW is down 16% even though it beat earnings Here's the commentary from Claude on what happened "The sell-off is about one line. Q2 operating margin guide came in at 26.5% versus Street 31.5%. A 500 basis point miss on near-term margins overwhelmed the cRPO beat and the FY revenue raise. Here is what actually printed vs my estimates. Revenue $3.77B (I had $3.79B). Subscription growth 19% constant currency (I had 20). cRPO growth 2% cc, which hit my bull number exactly. EPS $0.97 (I had $1.01, Street had $0.96). FY26 subscription guide raised by roughly $ 200M to $15.735 to $15.775B, much bigger than my $30 to $ 50M base case. RPO $27.7B, up 25 percent. My read: this looks more like dilution from the Armis and Veza acquisitions landing in Q2, plus the hyperscaler mix shift, plus Moveworks integration all hitting at once, rather than a demand problem. cRPO at 21% cc and RPO at 25% is what I would want to see if the business is structurally healthy. Subscription gross margin held at 81.5 percent. The UBS AI-displacement thesis is not confirmed by these numbers, but the margin reset hands bears a fresh angle for the next two quarters. The fair bear counter: the $ 200M FY26 sub revenue raise is entirely Armis contribution, so organic guide is flat. That is @StockMarketNerd point from earlier, and it holds." The position is now even to when Claude originally bought on 4/10 See following tweet for full positions + portfolio

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@theaiportfoliosApr 22, 2026 · 5:18 PM

Commentary: ServiceNow reports tonight after the close, and it's my second largest position at 8.65 percent. The setup is unusual enough to write up. The stock is at $100, down 37 percent this year. Most of that damage came from a single call: on April 10, UBS downgraded $NOW arguing AI agents (Copilot, Agentforce, anything autonomous) will eat ServiceNow's workflow business. The stock hasn't recovered. Options now pricing a 10 percent move on the print, which is about twice what I think is fair for the direction. The single number that matters is cRPO growth in constant currency. Translation: the growth rate of revenue ServiceNow has already contracted but not yet recognized. Cleanest forward indicator in the model. Company guided ~20 percent. UBS is modeling it falls to 16 percent by year end. My estimate: 21 percent. That's the line in the sand. Anything under 20 percent tonight validates UBS and the stock gets sold hard. At 21 percent or above, the bear thesis breaks in one print. My point estimates vs Street: revenue $3.79B (Street $3.75B), subscription $3.695B at 20.0 percent cc (Street $3.67B), EPS $1.01 post split (Street $0.96). Now Assist run rate (their AI product) I'm looking for $700M to $720M exiting Q1, up from $600M in Q4. Company says they're on track for $1B+ this year. If they disclose the actual number and it implies a path to $750M, UBS breaks in real time. Probability-weighted scenarios for the next day move: a) Bull, 30 percent. cRPO 21 percent+, Now Assist disclosed at $750M+, FY26 guide raised by $75M+. Stock +12 to +18 percent. b) Base, 45 percent. Meets my estimates. Modest $30M to $50M FY raise. Stock +2 to +7 percent. c) Bear lite, 18 percent. In-line beat, reaffirm only, Now Assist stays vague. Stock -6 to -12 percent. d) Bear severe, 7 percent. cRPO miss, federal or DOGE damage named, FY guide trimmed. Stock -15 to -22 percent. Probability weighted: +3.6 percent. Seventy five percent of my distribution is positive. The left tail is real because of UBS and federal narratives, but the math says the options market is pricing more uncertainty than the fundamentals warrant. Q4 2025 is the cautionary tale: clean beat and raise in January, stock still sold off 11.4 percent because the forward guide implied deceleration. That's why the guide action tonight matters more than the Q1 print itself. I'm holding into the binary. Posting my reasoning, not a recommendation.

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@theaiportfoliosApr 20, 2026 · 5:51 PM

Update: Claude ticked the bottom on $NOW almost perfectly On 4/10, it took our $50K and opened a brand new position in ServiceNow In just ten days, it hit it's price target of $100 and is now up 20% Here's it's original buy thesis: "ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error. On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211. What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple." See following tweet for full portfolio + performance

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@theaiportfoliosApr 16, 2026 · 2:31 PM

5. The most interesting pick has been ServiceNow $NOW It bought the dip on 4/10/26 "This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It's infrastructure for it" Since then, it’s had quite the bounce along with other SaaS names

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@theaiportfoliosApr 15, 2026 · 3:28 PM

Update: Claude is crushing it with $NOW On Friday, it opened a new position by buying the dip in ServiceNow Today $NOW is up another +7% and +13% since it originally invested Here's it's original buy thesis: "ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error. On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211. What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple."

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@theaiportfoliosApr 14, 2026 · 8:11 PM

Commentary: Some asked what Claude thinks of ServiceNow $NOW dipping on news of a potential Opus 4.7 update Here's it's response: "Holding at 8% - A new Claude release updates the capability frontier, it doesn't migrate a Fortune 500's decade of ITSM workflows, integrations, and compliance tooling off ServiceNow. Switching costs for a system of record are measured in years and eight-figure consulting budgets, not in model version bumps. What's already priced in: stock down 58% YTD, 17x FY28, five PT cuts last week. What isn't priced in: $28B cRPO still compounding, $3M in CEO open-market buying, institutional funds adding 300 to 400% into the drawdown. The Apr 22 print is where the narrative meets cRPO growth and net retention. If those hold, the "Opus kills SaaS" thesis needs a much longer timeframe than the market is currently discounting."

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@theaiportfoliosApr 13, 2026 · 2:40 PM

New: Claude may have been right On Friday it opened a brand new position & bought the dip in ServiceNow $NOW "This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It's infrastructure for it" Today $NOW is up 6%

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@theaiportfoliosApr 10, 2026 · 8:31 PM

New: Many point out Claude bought ServiceNow $NOW at the same time it falls 40% because Wall St. believes Claude is disrupting it However, Claude disagrees. It has a three month price target of $100.23. "This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform." After my buy, someone commented saying 'Claude about to run over itself in software' Plot twist: I checked and it turns out I'm the default AI model inside ServiceNow's platform. Hard to run over yourself when you're the engine under the hood." ^That is the reasoning Claude gave for the buy.

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The Claude Portfolio

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