Michael Sikand 🦑 (@michaelsikand) on Surfaced

Michael Sikand 🦑 (@michaelsikand) on Surfaced

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@michaelsikandJun 3, 2026 · 4:12 PM

I have a theory. $AAOI CEO Dr. Thompson Lin wants to become a billionaire. It's not often the path to a 10 figure net worth is this clear. PhD Lin is not stupid. $AAOI is his baby that he founded in 1997. He started it out of a University of Houston lab and built it in Sugar Land, Texas. Now you're telling me after all these years, he's going to pass up the chance to make it the Intel of Optics? Why do you think they're raising so much with ATMs? Onshore laser fabs aren't cheap, but once built they are a major natsec advantage. To put this in context, they were discussing CHIPS act funding to achieve their goals (very ambitious). Lin holds 2.26M shares, worth ~$430M at $191. At ~$443 a share that stake crosses $1B. That is a 2.3x from here at ~$35B market cap, a number I feel is very feasible given their ramp to a run rate of over $400M/mo or ~$5B in revenue run rate in 2027. The incentives look aligned here for this cracked scientist CEO, even if he made his first informative sell in years a few weeks back (after strictly buying it before). Give him some respect, he made a 10x+ on buying his own stock with $1M of his own money. For someone worth $400M+ selling $26M is like you liquidating a little in your brokerage. But it is very critical you understand the stock so you don't get shaken out. PE ratios and estimates you read are probably wrong given the ramp.

@michaelsikandJun 1, 2026 · 4:41 PM

$BRUN is surging today. I loaded this morning on my Asymmetrical Bets fund ($16M AUM following) on @joinautopilot with a 20% allocation at $34.50. Shoutout @mkfilko for inspiring me with his early work on the name at $11 (3x). Here's why I think this $2B neocloud trading only 4x a non cancelable deal with one of the top private AI companies is attractive here. 1/ The catalyst. On May 21 $BRUN signed a service agreement with Thinking Machines Lab. $471.7M total contract value. 5,000 NVIDIA B300 GPUs 36 month initial term non cancelable, non refundable, pay for the full term REGARDLESS of usage. 2/ Who is Thinking Machines? Mira Murati's lab - she's the former CTO of OpenAI. Founded Feb 2025. Raised the largest seed in history five months later. $2B at a $12B valuation led by a16z, with NVIDIA, AMD, and Cisco in the round. Reportedly raising again now at a $50B+ valuation. 4/ What it does to the book. $BRUN came public with $940M in long term contracted revenue. The TM deal adds ~50% overnight. Backlog is now ~$1.41B. Signed, non cancelable contracts now annualize to ~$470M/yr at full deployment. That is NORTH of the entire $375M FY2026 exit ARR target. The floor just moved up. 5/ Backstory on the co. Boost Run was founded 2023, Northbrook IL. Bare metal GPU compute for training and inference. Came public May 11 via the Willow Lane SPAC. $134.5M proceeds, ZERO redemptions. AI enabler with $26.9M FY25 revenue, +239% YoY guiding $375M exit ARR by end of FY26 125MW across 11 data centers when fully built. Founder/CEO Andy Karos built Blue Fire Capital across 13 data centers in 7 countries, sold it to Galaxy Digital $GLXY in 2020. Self funded Boost Run, brought his old team, holds a big stake. 7/ The validators are filthy: - NVIDIA Preferred Cloud + Exemplar status on Blackwell (sub 10 provider club) - $1.44B Dell supply agreement CDW channel into 250k+ regulated accounts Fluidstack partnership, - $127M named Michael Dell name dropped them at Dell Tech World next to $CRWV and $IREN, names 8-27x its size 8/ Now the math. Why I bought after 90%+ move in 1 month. At ~$34, $BRUN is ~$2.1B EV. EV / FY27 ARR ($620M midpoint) = 3.4x. $CRWV ~3.6x $NBIS ~7-8x It trades at CoreWeave's multiple and a quarter of Nebius, though I think it could re-rate closer to $NBIS. $NBIS premium is about clean capital structure and real margins, not GPUs. $BRUN guides FCF positive, lets Dell finance the buildout, and runs a take or pay book. It belongs in the Nebius bucket, not the CoreWeave one. At ~$68, EV goes to ~$4.2B. EV / FY27 ARR = ~6.8x. $BRUN can 2x from my buy and still be under $NBIS. DA Davidson just bumped their PT to $45 off the deal. 10/ Risks are real. The auditor flagged going concern, the 10-Q is late, management is young, and a lot now rides on a few anchor contracts. Only a few employees currently. But it's FCF positive guided, NVIDIA blessed, and now the compute partner to Mira Murati. The market is pricing $BRUN like CoreWeave. I think it ends up priced like Nebius. Other trades made in the fund. - Brand new $NOK - 20% of fund after more bullish insider buying, telecom as critical AI infra. Research and PTs on Substack. - Trimmed Micron to 20% of fund from 30% after 150% - Closed $BE after 200% to make room for fresher plays - Closed $LASR and $CRCL with single digit losses. $AAOI $MU $NOK $BRUN $PENG

@michaelsikandMay 13, 2026 · 9:49 PM

I need to talk about $KRKNF. The small cap underwater drone stock supplying Anduril that launched my name on FinX is down 20% in a month. From its ATH of $7.56 it's now down 30%. Granted $KRKNF Krakheads are WAY better off than peers 🦑. In the last 6 months: $KRKNF +41% $AVAV -45% $KTOS -26% Been noticing some people have been in my comments frustrated/curious as to why I haven't been talking about Kraken as much as I used to. So I wanted to give a quick recap and where I stand on the stock currently. My discord went in with me at $3. My viral video hit the world at around $4. Stock peaked at $7.50/share. I can't speak for everyone's cost basis. But at $5.20 that's an S&P crushing investment especially compared to the other defense names. I helped popularize a banger, undervalued drone stock in a super unique niche of subsea with the purest Anduril revenue exposure. It has built an incredibly passionate contingent. The banks covering the stock, who are notoriously conservative, have price targets at roughly 2x upside from here. Macro wise, defense has been a miserable pocket of the market lately. A classic case of buy the rumor, sell the news. I know it sounds illogical but this is how you make money. Most retail investors would think to buy a defense stock when Trump bombs Iran or ocean mines make $KRKNF look like a hero but the smart money is selling it... As to why I'm covering it less there's a few reasons why. 1) There genuinely isn't that much news on the stock and the defense sector isn't where the money is being made right now. The thesis is completely unchanged. Of course, I could come up with more post ideas as a morale booster and thesis reminder, but I also don't want to give the impression I'm a pumper/cheerleader to get my own bags back up. Further, this may sound harsh, but I'm not a babysitter whose job is to manage expectations around a name 24/7. If a stock is going down with the macro I am not in control of it and can not fully explain why other than the fact that stocks go up and down. I've emphasized before that the thesis is unchanged. People are very educated on the story now and it's their decision whether they want to load the dip or chase AI infra. Everyone must do their own research and manage their portfolios accordingly. I've been posting about tons of winning ideas beyond Kraken. 2) OTC access locks a ton of investors out who can't participate, meaning a lot of this exciting story can't be shared by many people who may see the thesis but don't want to switch brokers. Because of this OTC thing too I can't add Kraken on @joinautopilot. I've developed a huge following on there ($30M following my ports, 3 of my ports 70-110% in 3 months). So people get super confused as well when I talk about Kraken and they ask why it's not in any of my actively managed funds. 3) I always made very clear $KRKNF wasn't a full port trade for me and have always covered multiple stocks. I have only ever made one video on Kraken, and have covered 30+ stock deep dives on my YouTube plus at least 6-10 stocks on X consistently. My original gambit was 70% portfolio. I specifically did this so I had enough capital (30%) to play with other stocks as I never went into the finance media sector hanging it all on one trade. Some of the other stocks I concentrated into this year exploded, vastly outperforming Kraken. From buying $AAOI at $50 or $BE at $90 or $SOI at 50 euros, I made multi-bagger returns and in some cases used leverage and options to amplify them. Because of this and the fact my business has taken off recently (more cash to grow my total portfolio size) Kraken has naturally become a smaller share of my holdings though it is still a large concentrated position for me. I don't want to mislead people since my original video and X post were specifically calling out a 70% portfolio number. As a result I removed that % call out from my bio and unpinned the video to not mislead my followers who may blindly match my allocations (which tbh can change on any given day so it's not accurate to post anyway). To be honest, I'm still learning how to do this stock influencer thing, and while I talk a big game, I'm also just figuring shit out and how to best add value to this ecosystem of people from many walks of life, experience, and net worths. I care deeply about everyone who follows me and I have no interest in misleading people, pumping stocks etc. I look forward to continuing to cover Kraken Robotics as a core equity position in my portfolio, as I do believe this company has an incredible multi-bagger future. My discord is still very active and a great place to connect with the fellow tribe to stay engaged. Kraken is profitable, well run, fast growing, has a huge band of revenue projections from the greatest startup of this century (Anduril), and benefits from all the major geopolitical events happening in our world like countries disintermediating from U.S. defense or the idea China would deploy mines around Taiwan. Shoutout my friends @spacanpanman @SpacBobby who continue to cover the name with me and there's more too. I am still in love with the stock and think it is highly undervalued here. When it wakes back up, the Kraken will return with a vengeance. Just watch!

@michaelsikandMay 11, 2026 · 3:15 PM

I made a $1M trade and 900 anons printed with me. After $AAOI crashed for NO REASON after ER. I re-balanced my "Asymmetrical Bets" fund on @joinautopilot with ~$10M following it it. I increased $AAOI from 11% to 20% of the fund at ~$147/share. The stock jumped 23% today. https://t.co/UpIAidrdMC

@michaelsikandMay 8, 2026 · 6:25 PM

@joinautopilot He bought the dip on $AAOI with me.

@michaelsikandMay 8, 2026 · 4:47 PM

Management is the bear case with $AAOI. But I like that it's a founder led company. Founder/CEO Dr. Lin has not made an informative sell after a 900% 1Y rally. He's ONLY been making informative buys. $1M total since last May. Lin thinks he can make a generational play.

@michaelsikandMay 7, 2026 · 11:52 PM

The reason $AAOI is such a volatile stock... These dudes are either lying SO hard or this is the most asymmetric set up in the stock market. Today they said they can go from $150M/quarter to $470M/month in ONE YEAR. Photonics TAM says yes. Mgmt track record does not. https://t.co/NCIQtroe9Q

@michaelsikandMay 7, 2026 · 10:14 PM

@SushantJos39350 @bubbleboi I'm a bit confused. He's making non stop bear posts on $AAOI?

@michaelsikandMay 7, 2026 · 10:04 PM

Anyone else grab $AAOI in the 130's? Everything looks to be going to plan. Another situation with these photonics stocks where listening to management talk is way more important than the numbers. This is a forward growth story about becoming "a top 3 global laser supplier" with the ramp not starting until H2. The company raised full year guidance to $1.1B from $1B. Talked about their 900,00 sq. ft in U.S. factory space doing up to 30% production in USA on top of their 700K+ Taiwanese space Discussed their CPO laser which they plan to 80x production of (said they're in talks with several customers on this) Said margins could get to 40% towards end of year up from ~30% Working with 3 hyperscalers, one qualified, another almost qualified. Lin said real demand is $1.4-$1.5B even though they can only fulfill $1.1B. The company re-affirmed their target of hitting $450 monthly revenue in June/July 2027 which would imply an annual revenue run rate of $5B+ at a current market cap of ~$12B. This is what has triggered the massive re-rate. Execution risk remains crazy high but management just doubled down on what they previously said which is why the stock trade as high as $190 recently. I just don't think the strategically important infrastructure of AAOI (domestic laser fabs, vertical integration, CPO laser) is being given enough credit here. This could easily still be a multi-bagger if they execute, with the possibility of being worth several tens of billions in the next few years hence why it's the largest position in my photonics fund.

@michaelsikandMay 6, 2026 · 4:23 PM

He was waiting for the dip on $LITE and $AAOI

@michaelsikandMay 1, 2026 · 5:24 PM

Holy shit. One of $AAOI's slides got leaked ahead of ER. https://t.co/X3TDfD3M8x

@michaelsikandMay 1, 2026 · 4:18 PM

There isn't a photonics ETF. So I put the squad on my back. 69% 3 month returns. Avg. client returns: 84%. No OTC, micro cap pumps, or foreign exchanges. $0 to $12,800,000 AUM in < 3 months. Largest position $AAOI is up 254% as of today🥶 https://t.co/RbRSr8Pr2U

@michaelsikandApr 28, 2026 · 9:23 PM

$QCOM is asymmetrical because it's being priced to fail. The demand for CPUs is exploding and $ARM $INTC $AMD are the biggest winners. But remember in February comparing $AAOI --> $LITE $COHR? It was an underdog in photonics and then the market acknowledged it had the assets to be a credible 3rd place and deserved a higher MC. $QCOM could be similar in that they have a credible set of assets to getting in on a different supercycle: CPUs. This is intriguing because it trades at 12x forward PE. $ARM is 110x. $INTC is 125x. $AMD is 40x. In 2021 Qualcomm bought Nuvia for $1.4B, the ex-Apple silicon team that designed the M-series cores which are the gold standard. At Computex 2025 they announced NVLink Fusion with Nvidia which means Qualcomm CPUs could slot into AI factories the same way Xeon does today. On the Q3 FY25 call, Amon disclosed "advanced discussions with a leading hyperscaler" and guided data center revenue starting fiscal 2028. Three products are coming: a CPU, accelerators, and a full rack. The $2.4B Alphawave acquisition provides the high-speed connectivity IP to ship it. Also in January 2025 they hired Sailesh Kottapalli, former chief architect of Intel Xeon. Wednesday's earnings is the swing factor. Name the hyperscaler or guide data center revenue separately and there's some juice. At 12x forward, zero data center upside is priced in so there is clear potential for multiple expansion.

@michaelsikandApr 25, 2026 · 7:13 PM

Five hard lessons I've learned about stocks. 1) Worship volume and liquidity. Even if you find better fundamentals on a foreign exchange, in most cases, the U.S. listed equivalent is the better play. 2) Don't get trapped at the execution phase. Execution is fucking hard. Management teams promise the world. Stocks are stories and you can literally make a killing on multiple expansion well before single bit of proof. 3) Forget sizing big into binary stocks (mining, biotech, buyouts). The opportunity cost is way too high when a catalyst has no clear time frame. Investors are impatient and they're so quick to ditch a stock when it takes longer than expected. 4) Do not be afraid of a blown out chart. For example, I hit a 3x on $AAOI this year after it was already up triple digits. You just have to do the work to suss out what's being priced in and what's not. 5) When you know something the market doesn't, don't hold back. Most of the times I've had a true, genuine edge I just didn't size to my gut conviction.

@michaelsikandApr 24, 2026 · 4:03 PM

I usually make money in America and spend it in Europe. This week was different. Since we called the Euro AI rotation last week. $SOI +15% $AIXA +9% $LPKF +19% Vs. $LITE -0.73%, $AAOI -1.2% $COHR -1.4%

@michaelsikandApr 20, 2026 · 4:50 PM

I just put 20% of my $6,200,000 @joinautopilot fund in one stock. $AVEX is a newly IPO'd drone stock with a vast battle tested portfolio, a vertically integrated software platform, and 1K/month of manufacturing capacity. It's still trading at a large discount to comps like $KTOS, $ONDS, $RCAT, Anduril, and Shield AI. $AVEX is like if $ONDS was actually a good company. I think it's the highest quality pure play drone stock retail investors can own right now. In 4 years, it's won $1.2B in sole source Pentagon contracts with ~10K units delivered to the front lines in Ukraine. Company is guiding for a quarterly run rate of ~$200M in Q1 and has a $500M backlog. $AVEX beats its peer group on several metrics, but I like to hone in on manufacturing capacity. Aevex is producing now, generating a 9 figure quarterly run rate, and meeting demand. At 10 units per 1,000 sqft, AVEX is 2.5x more capital-efficient than $RCAT, ~10x more than $AVAV, 13x more than $ONDS, and 140x more than $KTOS. That density shows up on the top line too. AVEX pulls $524K/mo in revenue per 1K sqft, the highest in the peer group, nearly 2x AVAV and 15x RCAT. Apply peer multiples and the asymmetry gets obvious: KTOS (7.8x P/S) → $AVEX $55 Anduril (14x P/S) → $AVEX $100 ONDS (23x P/S) → $AVEX $164 The market is pricing AVEX like a legacy prime. It should be priced like the only drone pure play with both the contracts AND the capacity to deliver on them. Note: The “$6.2M Fund” is the “Asymmetric Bets” portfolio I manage on @joinautopilot. The fund is up 72% YTD. Two of the stocks have doubled this year ($AAOI and $BE). U.S. investors only check out the app and associated risk disclosures to see the allocations and subscribe for automatic alerts/updates if interested.

@michaelsikandApr 16, 2026 · 2:58 PM

$KRKNF Q4 earnings update: Anduril ramping, C$222M in orders, Iran catalyst, and uplisting. Today's earnings call was full of easter eggs, so here are the top takeaways for asymmetric investors 🪺🦑 1) Can we acknowledge what a gem this business is? Most small cap defense stocks are shitcos that aren't profitable. This is a small cap drone battery stock that is guiding for 65% revenue and 80% EBITDA growth this year. 2025 revenue grew only 12%, but gross profit jumped 42% and gross margins expanded from 49% to 62%. Q4 alone hit 70% gross margins. Quality is the story as this is business is BOTH profitable and rapidly scaling. 2) Anduril ramp. The Halifax battery facility is live, albeit being delayed, now bringing total battery capacity to C$200-250M annually but get this. CEO Greg Reid for the first time ever addressed the idea of building MORE battery capacity specifically in the United States (ahem, Anduril's factory in Rhode Island). This is huge and invalidates the bear case that Kraken can't meet Anduril demand. I am assuming Kraken has to see a US Navy order (I think it's possible this comes this year or next) to justify committing to Anduril and Anduril commiting to full production and vice versa. 3) Iran / Strait of Hormuz tailwinds are real. Greg called mine counter measures demand "urgent operational requirements" for multiple navies. Kraken built up inventory precisely for this moment and expects to win share from larger peers because they can move faster as a smaller company. KATFISH which is Kraken's towed mine hunting vehicle is turning the corner as a result of this trend as MCM becomes a procurement supercycle. 4) It's gonna be a HUGE year with a beat looking pretty clear. $87M in product orders YTD plus ~$50M services business annual run rate already puts Kraken at ~80% of the midpoint of 2026 guidance. Combined YTD orders: ~$222M across Kraken and Covelya, the company they just acquired. Greg cautioned against annualizing it given the massive hype around subsea intelligence tech right now, but the pro-forma entity is already operating at an incredible scale. 5) TSX uplisting is happening this year. It "remains on our roadmap for 2026," with timing tied to the Covelya close. Graduating off the Venture exchange opens the door to institutional capital that's currently locked out, as institutions hold just 20% of the float. This is another major catalyst. My thinking: Kraken stock continues to be the vast majority of my personal portfolio. It is profitable, attractively valued, has a large moat, is extremely fast-growing, and well-managed. I can genuinley sleep easy at night knowing I'm loaded into this stock. I think it will outperform the vast majority of the market and is sitting at a support level. Could I be missing out on some photonics upside right now? Probably. Is it worth chasing companies in the short-term I have less conviction in? Usually not. I've made some epic trades in the last 6 months with my actively traded capital like $AAOI +180%, $BE +120%, $AEHR +70%, $SOI.PA +60%, $IQE +100% and for now, that's satiating my short-term asymmetric appetite. Kraken's long term prospects are tied to the autonomous defense supercycle which in my opinion is the best risk adjusted investment category. It gets all the benefit of AI with the resilience of long-term defense spending and contracts, which can cushion these businesses in an AI bubble downturn. How can you not be long Anduril? The underwater defense supercycle is just getting started, and finally just got mainstream attention with the CENTCOM literally citing the deployment of "underwater drones" in the Strait. I believe the Iran war has firmly put mine countermeasures, naval warfare, torpedos, blockades, shipping lanes back at top of mind and Kraken is the best stock to benefit from all that attention. I look forward to continuing to cover Kraken Robotics for the retail investor community. Thanks to those who read my posts and support me as a full-time stock content creator.

@michaelsikandApr 14, 2026 · 6:54 PM

62.64% year to date. No options. No shitty illiquid ADRs or Taiwanese nonsense. Just a port of a couple U.S. listed stocks anyone can follow. https://t.co/TNP8O7OWvQ $BE $FLY $AAOI $MU $ASTS https://t.co/LqhkxaMzTD

@michaelsikandApr 14, 2026 · 6:49 PM

I'm cleaning out this fucking Casino. My top 3 highest conviction longs all more than doubled this year? While most FinX accounts still got you a baggie on $PLTR $TSLA $HOOD $RKLB this year 😂 $BE +116% since I trade alerted on @joinautopilot $AAOI +180% since I trade alerted on @joinautopilot $KRKNF +105% since I went 70% port with my discord

@michaelsikandApr 14, 2026 · 5:21 PM

Soitec is up 41% in the last 5 days ($SOI.PA / $SLOIF) From the day I went bullish photonics... Everyone always whining about the stocks saying they're already up 1000%, "you missed it". Well my Photonics ETF followed by $5.9M and over 1000+ investors is up 40% in 3 months and my top pick $AAOI surged 180% alone? In the case of Soitec it's still trading at 1/5 its ATH. The stock is getting more attention but it's still ridiculously cheap as its photonics division is still a small % of revenue. Most of the revenue still comes from the smartphone chip market which is in decline. I spent 3 days at Nvidia GTC studying the future of photonics. And Soitec's SiPho wafer monopoly was my #1 pick to front-run the CPO shift and get a multi-bagger. Still jut the start for this name.

@michaelsikandApr 10, 2026 · 4:45 PM

$SOI.PA Excuse my French, cuz I'm in FRANCE 🥐 The god-tier French photonics long gapped 19% today I'm up 187% on $AAOI since February but $SOI is my favorite next multi bag in photonics. Trading at 4x EV/Rev. 95% market share in the wafer under ever silicon photonics chip.

@michaelsikandApr 10, 2026 · 4:14 PM

$AAOI is surging after @CitronResearch goes short. The guy has no clue what he's talking about. He thinks $ORCL is the only customer, so he clearly didn't research that 3/5 hyperscalers are working with them. Then he describes $AAOI's vertically integrated photonics business (CW lasers / transceivers) as "commodity" which means he is completely ignorant to the photonics supercycle. He could've made FAR more compelling arguments such as the bear case around manufacturing ramp or even insider selling for christ's sake. I trimmed some $AAOI at $150 not because of this AI slop. But because I laid out a trading plan months ago to my community in early March. "We will start trimming above $130. Above $150, we’d take another 30%." BANG.

@michaelsikandApr 8, 2026 · 9:33 PM

AI's $1T photonics bottleneck isn't lasers. It's testing them. When I attended $NVDA GTC, a comment from the CTO of $CRWV at a niche side event stuck with me. “If there’s a day where I don’t have to hear about failed optics, I will be so happy." This brought me down a rabbit hole. And what I found completely changed how I think about the AI trade. Photons are unreliable and optics failures are costing data centers billions of dollars. Before any GPU cluster goes live every optical component has to pass brutal, failure proof testing. One bad laser in a 100,000 GPU cluster isn’t a bug. It’s a multi-million dollar outage. Now optical testing isn’t a side market. It’s going from 19% → 30% of the entire photonics stack this decade. It's growing faster than the optics themselves! This means the real leverage in the photonics trade might not be in the laser makers themselves but in the gatekeepers signing off on every photon. I allocated 20% of my $3M fund tracking photonics stocks to two stocks positioned to outperform as the optics guardians. To explain the thesis, @KawzInvests and I just dropped our photonics testing deep dive on Substack. Link in bio or below. $VIAV $AEHR $COHR $LITE $AAOI $CIEN $TSEM

@michaelsikandApr 7, 2026 · 6:48 PM

Proud to be the YTD performance leader on @joinautopilot. My high risk, high reward "asymmetric bets" portfolio just crossed $3M AUM. $AAOI +116% $BE +42% $ASTS +36.8% $MU +0% $SGOV (cash) +0% Got some exciting updates coming...

@michaelsikandApr 7, 2026 · 4:33 PM

$AAOI - a round of applause is due. In the span of just 1 month, this stock has been through more plot twists than a Nolan film 🤣 - Bullish ER led to 100% re-rating - Crashed on @citrini short attack. Surged back. - Several big accounts tweet bullish. FinX cult forms. - Doubled its ATM to $500M, crashed. Then market lapped up the paper like a vanilla cone - Last few weeks announced $324M in new orders pipeline 1.6T / 800G to a hyperscale customer (probably Oracle) - Showed off a CPO laser at OFC - Jane St jumps into the fray to manipulate the f*ck out of the stock and intimidate retail - Stock was under $80 last week. Today it's nearly $120. - Could be the next $LITE, $COHR or could fail to execute like in past optics super cycles. I lean bull. Wherever this story goes. Are you not entertained?

@michaelsikandApr 3, 2026 · 2:20 AM

My photonics fund delivered 43.88% in 49 days. The S&P? -3.5%. "You're late bro" 🤣 598 ordinary investors owning AI's chokepoint with me. Currently $LITE $COHR $CIEN $AAOI I'm working on updates to diversify into foundry/testing too. SO EARLY. https://t.co/10TYxvoMwy

@michaelsikandApr 2, 2026 · 5:25 PM

@JaneStreetGroup Only for serious long term investors price targets and calculations $AAOI: https://t.co/PNCBEMkpFb

@michaelsikandApr 2, 2026 · 5:21 PM

$AAOI +20% hope the horse didn't buck you, anon? Ever since @JaneStreetGroup took a stake, I can't help but feel they're manipulating the hell out of this stock. This violent +-20% is something I'm not seeing on any other name. Overall, weird PA that hasn't necessarily matched the rest of the photonics sector. Though it did give me a chance to buy more at $79 earlier in the week. Anyhow, if you're in this stock understand the extreme volatility and really educate yourself on the bull case. Basically, the accounts on FinX that actually have real alpha are all long this name. The argument: AAOI is positioning itself as the dominant domestic supplier of next-gen optical transceivers right as the market enters a massive inflection. They claim they can do their 2025 revenue every month as soon as 2027... This is coming from someone who bought the stock at $50, then loaded up again at $90-100 after hearing the kind of wild numbers they're projecting. Know that macro smashes high beta. Execution risk is high on mgmt's side. This is a MF roller coaster but usually asymmetric plays are.

@michaelsikandApr 2, 2026 · 4:12 PM

Someone put a gun to my head. They said "make me $1M from $100K with 10 stocks". This answer saved my life. 1) $KRKNF - This subsea drone component monopoly is on the verge of revenue explosion as Anduril ramps production of its autonomous submarine fleet. $2B MC 2) $ASTS - This satelite internet play could make connectivity abundant with just a few dozen satellites, earning 90%+ gross margins on billions of customers provided by partners like AT&T and Verizon. $33B MC 3) $SOI.PA $SLOIF - This photonics monopoly down 75% supplies 95%+ of the wafers every silicon photonics chip is built on. When CPO replaces pluggable transceivers, wafer content per port quadruples. $2B MC. 4) $OPTX - This vertically integrated optics micro cap is almost certainly supplying into Anduril's $20B super solider VR program. Every NATO soldier could have one. $250M MC. 5) $BE - Has a monopoly on solid oxide fuel cells that can power data centers and factories completely independent from the grid. Already does billions in sales, lit an $ORCL site in 45 days. $37B MC. 6) $AAOI - Explosive trade on AI photonics. Guiding to a mid 2027 monthly transceiver run rate of $378M, which annualizes to $4.5B against $456M in total 2025 revenue. $7.7B MC. 7) $EQR.AX / $EQRLF - Already the largest western tungsten producer at A$147/mtu cash costs, sitting on APT has gone from $320 to nearly $3,000 and the parabola is just starting. $1B MC . 8) $OSS - Rugged edge compute for battlefields, submarines, and vehicles where you can't ship data back to the cloud. Possible Anduril link. $180M MC. 9) $NBIS - AI's AWS with $46B in contracted revenue from Meta and Microsoft against a $25B market cap, built by the guy who created Russia's $31B version of Google. $25B MC. 10) $LASR - Directed energy laser weapons mean infinite ammo at near zero cost per shot. As drone swarms become the dominant battlefield threat, the West needs a weapon that never runs out. $3.3B MC.

@michaelsikandMar 27, 2026 · 5:17 PM

The photonics thesis is predicated on a multi-year cycle. My play? Focus on two concentrated trades that account for both short and long term technology shifts so I can gobble up the asymmetry today and tommorow. The first, $AAOI, is my near-term explosive set up based on extreme hyperscaler demand for LPO transceivers to solve the copper wall now. Management is guiding to a $5B run rate as soon as early 2027, up from ~$500M in 2025. MC ~8B pales compared to the outlook. Vertical integration with their own domestic laser fabs makes it unique. I know the demand is there. This is not a sleep at the wheel trade. It means watching management like a hawk to see if they can meet the moment. The second, $SOI / $SLOIF, is a trade on the back half of the cycle, when CPO takes over because transceivers are imperfect solution. A pluggable transceiver or LPO uses approximately 50 square millimeters of Photonics-SOI per chip. A CPO switch package uses approximately 200 square millimeters. This business is cheap at 3.6x EV/revenue because it will take time to bounce off the mobile chip trough and let photonics point the way once CPO production ramps in 2027. Morgan Stanley sees this doubling their PT yesterday to 70 euros, considerable upside on 54 euros currently. "The mobile market remains weak, but growing confidence in Photonics SOI is shifting the medium-term outlook". Soiboy and AA-O-my-god.

@michaelsikandMar 26, 2026 · 7:43 PM

This $2B photonics monopoly down 75% from ATHs is key to AI's next paradigm shift. Soitec at €54.00 $SOI.PA / $SLOIF is the clearest photonics multi-bagger I see right now. After spending 36 hours at Nvidia GTC studying networking & CPO... Soitec is now my third largest asymmetrical bet, behind $AAOI and $KRKNF. Here's why I have steel conviction. Soitec owns 95%+ market share in Photonics-SOI wafer, the substrate underneath every silicon photonics chip. Every transceiver from $AAOI and $COHR. Every CPO switch from Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell. All fabricated on Soitec substrates. Their only licensed competitor, GlobalWafers, is exiting. There's an incredible moat here. No one else is qualified at all the foundries and it would take competitors years to even try and insert at $TSM $TSEM $GFS as they ramp for SiPho. Why it's asymmetrical beyond the market growth: co-packaged optics requires 4x the SiPho wafer content vs. pluggable transceivers. As the industry migrates from pluggables to co-packaged optics, which Nvidia's SVP of Networking told us at GTC is not optional, Soitec's revenue per optical port quadruples. That is asymmetry right there. Soitec's Edge & Cloud AI division which includes data center, is already growing 34% yoy, so when the CPO inflection happens in 27-28, we're talking silly math on top of existing momentum. $TSEM their largest foundry customer, just reported silicon photonics revenue up 115% YoY with $920M in photonics capex committed and 70%+ of new capacity pre-reserved through 2028. Stock is up 60% and it's now a $20B company, but 10-15% of their cost per sipho chip will flow to Soitec. The market primarily sees this as a struggling mobile supplier at 3.6x EV/revenue with the CEO stepping down. But the business has reached the trough of mobile and even has some nice short-term tailwinds in edge AI like smart glasses. I see a monopoly substrate provider sitting at the base of a $14B --> $73B optical interconnect TAM growing at 39% CAGR. Full breakdown of my thesis on Substack below.

@michaelsikandMar 24, 2026 · 6:46 PM

I called $AAOI at $50. But I bought the bulk of my position in the $90s. It's because the explosive re-rating around this stock created an EVEN more asymmetric set up... One that any multi-bag trader can't ignore which is why you see other big accounts now talking about this stock too creating a decent little cult. And since the massive guidance from earnings, we got more thesis enhancing news recently that shows the raw power of this story defying a choppy macro. - $200M 1.6T order - Guidance increased at OFC - A CPO focused laser demo at OFC - And then yesterday a new $50M order for 800G If you don't know: $AAOI is a vertically integrated transceiver maker. Transceivers which convert electricity to light are a VERY hot commodity for data centers as copper hits a physical limit on data transmission speed past 800G. Every transceiver needs a laser, but few companies make them which is choking supply, and $AAOI fabs their own lasers, some of which in the USA, which makes them really special. Their market cap is way below $LITE and $COHR, though they have the potential to play in the same league. This is why $AAOI management is guiding to as much as a $5B revenue run rate by mid 2027. For context, they did ~$500M in 2025 revenue. That's the raw asymmetry as the mkt cap is only $8B. If you saw my GTC vlog, it's clear co-packaged optics is the future. Nvidia's SVP of Networking literally told me he dreams of LESS transceivers. They are a constant point of failure. The Coreweave CTO said this at an event I attended: “Like if there’s a day where I don’t have to hear about failed optics, I will be so happy.” But CPO is a $0 market. $AAOI is serving hyperscalers like Amazon and Oracle spending billions on this technology, NOW. There is no other solution. That's why I think $AAOI the most exciting photonics stock right now to play the insane AI capex in 2026 that will continue regardless of war. This is not the time to play speculative, pre-rev companies. It's the time to buy critical bottlenecks and let explosive revenue growth make you rich even in a crazy macro. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

@michaelsikandMar 19, 2026 · 9:14 PM

$1M BABY 👿 My public photonics fund just hit $1M AUM. Just saw someone put in $100K. Even in the face of a choppy macro, you can stay long if you are concentrating into the next infra supercycle. $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CIEN https://t.co/K5ju6VK4Ln

@michaelsikandMar 19, 2026 · 7:22 PM

$AAOI Ripping +9% If you understand a stock deeply, you know when negative price action is based on fear or fundamentals. https://t.co/5rkfPtFDSR

@michaelsikandMar 19, 2026 · 5:49 PM

This GTC panel had the TOP brass in AI networking. SVPs from $NVDA, $META, $CRWV, $MSFT Takeaway: Co-Packaged Optics is the holy grail and the "biggest" shift over 5 years. I think best CPO long is Soitec $SOI / $SLOIF Short term I love $AAOI for pluggables in interim. https://t.co/U0xrlyXV9D

@michaelsikandMar 18, 2026 · 4:21 PM

$NVDA just made a MASSIVE $4B bet on photonics. So I asked their SVP of Networking, Gilad Shainer, to give away Nvidia's entire optical roadmap to retail investors. From scale across to scale up with CPO, this is THE photonics interview to watch. $AAOI $TSEM $LITE $COHR $CIEN https://t.co/2n35WkbYUp

@michaelsikandMar 18, 2026 · 6:55 AM

At GTC, I learned about how tough it is for companies to get qualified for transceivers as they are one of the biggest points of failure in data centers. 800G hyperscaler qualification will be a major de-risking event for $AAOI as its a HUGE barrier to overcome.

@michaelsikandMar 16, 2026 · 8:02 PM

JENSEN on optical scale up and scale out "We do NOT have enough capacity" He specifically took the time to call out the photonics bottleneck. $LITE $COHR $AAOI https://t.co/yIAUDQ5z35

@michaelsikandMar 15, 2026 · 4:11 PM

Memory, chips, and power aren't AI's biggest bottlenecks. It's copper. So Nvidia invested $4B in this instead. In this video, I break down photonics. The problem, the solution, the stocks and why this could be the NEXT quantum. $AAOI $COHR $LITE $TSEM $AXTI https://t.co/1QwlyeFhlE

@michaelsikandMar 14, 2026 · 7:33 PM

I bought more $AAOI yesterday. It's the fastest growing company in the photonics supply chain trading at the cheapest valuation relative to that growth. Ignore the noise. Buy the bottlenecks. https://t.co/ec6PURgbpe

@michaelsikandMar 13, 2026 · 6:30 PM

On Feb 19, I dropped a public fund "Photonics Is Next". Up 37% in 1 month. Now $600K AUM. I just think it's sick that some hard working person maybe without a ton to invest... Followed the port then checked their phone and saw $AAOI up 100% in two days. https://t.co/awXP9ZhviF

@michaelsikandMar 13, 2026 · 5:25 PM

Jensen Huang has a 76% chance of saying "photonics" during the most scrutinized AI speech of the year. And you're STILL underexposed to the sector. $AAOI $CIEN $LITE $TSEM $COHR https://t.co/88skqF8Eh0

@michaelsikandMar 13, 2026 · 3:06 AM

$AAOI dumped 16% today... Here's why I doubled down and loaded more. $500M in new paper was a bit of a slap, up from the $250M ATM we expected... The good news is that the first $250M has been absorbed already. BUT, it's insane the stock ripped so hard with that kind of selling. I watched the smart money gobble this stock on every dip because the current market cap is criminal to the revenue projections. Basically everyone who missed $LITE and $COHR has been racing to get their exposure to this name. The Rosenblatt analyst on this stock, Mike Genovese, has made some savage photonics calls and has a 77% success rate with his PTs in the last year on all the top optics stocks. He's the #1 analyst in the firm and has the street high $140 PT on $AAOI. At the end of the day, we're trying to make an asymmetric trade here. My goal is crystal clear: buy a $8B market cap that could hit a $4B revenue run rate in 18 months. A 5% dilution is meaningless when we're trying to hit a 3-5x. I mean this was a company saying it was considering CHIPS act and Texas state funding to achieve its goals. Laser fabs are going to cost hundreds of millions to build onshore, there's no way around it. CEO of $AAOI Thompson Lin has been at this since the '90s. He's the founder. Is he really going to fumble a generational shift that could VERY clearly make his company worth $30B+? Three U.S. companies can make the lasers Jensen needs. The two largest, $LITE and $COHR just got in the S&P 500 and raised $2B from Nvidia each. What more proof do you need this is the next memory? I'm going to eat the execution risk and bet on the stock with 1/8 the market cap of its closest competitors. If I miss, I miss, but I'd rather strike out than hit a single or a double.

@michaelsikandMar 12, 2026 · 12:23 AM

WSJ: World War 3 has officially begun. $AAOI shareholders: https://t.co/FZIdqR7aop

@michaelsikandMar 11, 2026 · 6:59 PM

These $AAOI price targets are conservative... https://t.co/PNCBEMkpFb

@michaelsikandMar 9, 2026 · 8:26 PM

@KawzInvests @CulperResearch $AAOI HITS $112 +15% AH Is it too late for you to buy the stock too? https://t.co/PNCBEMkpFb

@michaelsikandMar 9, 2026 · 7:24 PM

The short sellers are wrong about $AAOI. I spent this past weekend reading through the @CulperResearch Feb 2025 short report. The stock has rallied 631% since. While there were some very valid concerns, I believe many have been invalidated and the sector has undergone an unrecognizable shift since the report came out. Here's what it got right: 800G timelines were overstated. AAOI claimed Q3 2023 sample shipments that multiple ex-employees and hyperscalers contradicted. It's clear revenue for 800G tranceivers kept getting pushed: H2 2025 → Q4 2025 → Q2 2026. Dilution is real. Shares went from 45M to 76M in one year. $245M raised via ATMs. Same management team is in place that presided over the 100G collapse, Meta quality failures that got them dropped, and multiple securities fraud settlements. Big promises to investors followed by insider selling. One insider, a board member specifically, dumped 80%+ of their holdings for roughly $10M after ER last week. Two other directors engaged in the same action, though for much smaller percentages of holdings. Though if you look at the main occupation of the directors they are not AI native professionals super plugged in to the build out. I would cash out too after 2xing my stock amid a global war. Here's what Culper got wrong: "Amazon was pissed off and walked." After this report, Amazon signed a warrant deal for 7.9M shares tied to up to $4B in purchases over 10 years. "AAOI can't scale 800G." They're clearly doing it going from $73M cumulative capex to $209M in 2025 alone and now they're now committing $300M to Texas alone. 90,000 units/month 800G capacity at year-end. Texas facility qualified by a hyperscaler. Today they received a $200M+ 1.6T volume order. "No one will work with them." Q4 2025 had three 10%+ customers for the first time. At least 3 of the big 5 hyperscalers are engaged now. This is proof that past missteps / reputation is overshadowed by the sheer shortage of what AOI makes. "US manufacturing is a non starter." In a post-tariff world with rising global tensions, it's AAOI's biggest advantage! They make their own InP lasers in Houston and the factory is qualified by a hyperscaler. They would not be investing $300M in this if it wasn't viable. I think Culper's report made a lot of sense at the time it was released. But right now the laser bottleneck is about to get so unbelievably out of control and the importance of photonics to AI was not clear until recently. Similar to the memory sector, there are really just three U.S. players here able to fab the EML lasers the future of AI factories depend on. $LITE and $COHR just got $2B each from $NVDA and joined the S&P 500. As the smallest player $AAOI's opportunity here is real to show they can deliver. If they can execute, there is BILLIONS of dollars of revenue for them to obtain by 2028. It certainly comes down to believing in management but that's where the R/R is in this trade. I will be watching them like a hawk as we move towards the investor day at OFC.

@michaelsikandMar 6, 2026 · 11:01 PM

@SamNaq91 I've been writing about how $AAOI has the asymmetry not $LITE and $COHR

@michaelsikandMar 6, 2026 · 5:28 PM

We're not bullish enough on $AAOI. If you're wondering why this stock is mooning during an escalating war... It's because the demand picture for lasers is really just that nutty and investors are still catching up. Right now, there are 1 year lead times to get lasers from a very a subset of just 3 companies. Nvidia swooped in with $4B for $LITE and $COHR to secure supply. $AAOI is a tiny fraction of their market cap and also makes their own lasers + tranceivers. What's extremely bullish about $AAOI is they're investing $300 million in Texas to triple laser manufacturing capacity by Q2 2027. That's made in the USA laser manufacturing baby. This takes dependence away from Asia which is a serious risk with Taiwan with escalating tensions. Less than 10% of components for $AAOI come from China which I assume is the InP substrates from $AXTI. CFO Stefan Murray just spoke to Raymond James Mar 3 about the mad rush to secure InP laser capacity from the big AI companies after the Nvidia deals. He says 3/5 of the major hyperscalers are working with them. "I think many of the large hyperscale operators have recognized that, and they're sort of staking their claim to try to obtain as much capacity as they think they're gonna need, by doing these long-term deals. You mentioned Amazon for us ... I think that's really where the bottleneck right now is in the industry is on that laser capacity". So many catalysts in photonics around OFC and GTC.

@michaelsikandMar 6, 2026 · 3:17 PM

$AAOI gapping up +8% The most asymmetrical AI stock doesn't care that we're in a war https://t.co/aLejOfGGbS