Galaxy is an interesting one. 35% off ATH and in the AI sector, very rare in this market.
SOTP below puts equity value at ~$17.8bn vs. a current market cap of ~$11.5bn. Significant discount to the parts but the Helios estimate is doing a lot of heavy lifting. See chatslop below.
Strip it back to a DCF on the CoreWeave cashflows at a sensible discount rate and you get $6–8bn for Helios alone. Add the rest of the business and you're roughly at today's market cap. So the downside case still gets you out around even, which is nice.
Peers have massively outperformed YTD, and on EV/MW Galaxy looks significantly undervalued. Peer are probably overvalued AND Galaxy is undervalued. This is low margin business fixed to unknown electricity costs then fixed revenue. Galaxy deal with $CRWV is 15 years of know cash flow.
Data centres are going to be a prize asset. Power access and permitting are the entire reason Elon and co. are now talking about data centres in space. Galaxy already has them on the ground (significantly easier) plus 2.7 GW of expansion optionality.
Mildly funny is a lot of peer comp tables don't even include Galaxy. Market and analysts clearly still see it as crypto, not AI. Probability of a meaningful re-rate as the label shifts and cashflows materialise looks high, especially if more clarity on future buildout materialises. .
Rest of the business I don't really care about. ETFs are steady income. BTC is a meaningful slice of the balance sheet I'm bearish btc mid term. AI sucks up risk capital, yields rise as hyperscalers and govs hit the debt markets). They own some Hyperliquid, not enough to move the needle. If you want hyperliquid:native exposure can buy $PURR
Overall I don't really care for Galaxy. I think its a low margin part of the stack and Novogratz is distracted by crypto. One to watch but not for me right now.
I don’t think we’re in a bubble yet. But there are parts of the market that look bubbly, won’t mention names other than $BIRD , I therefore have a plan to buy all elements of the stack in releatvisly downside protected ways in the hopes that the bubbly cash rolls into my positions. But, not yet. No position here for me. $GLXY
