Alphatica (@alphaticaio) on Surfaced

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Alphatica

@alphaticaioLong Research10.9k followers

Alphatica

@alphaticaioLong Research10.9k followers

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$MRVL· Marvell Technology

19 mentions since May 2026calls only

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About this voice

@alphaticaio posted 505 times across 107 distinct tickers over the past 12 months, generating 1,372 cashtag mentions. The voice's top three tickers were $SPY with 337 mentions, $QQQ with 271 mentions, and $NVDA with 99 mentions. Recent activity centered on earnings analysis and market technical observations, with the most recent mention occurring on 2026-06-10.

On 2026-06-10, @alphaticaio posted extensively on Oracle's earnings results and broader market dynamics. The voice documented specific earnings comparisons, noting that Oracle's actual EPS of $2.11 compared to their estimate of $2.02 and Street consensus of $1.96, while actual revenue of $19.2B beat both their $19.3B estimate and Street's $19.10B projection. The voice also engaged in discussion about market inflows and price action mechanics, stating observations about current market conditions and technical signals.

AI-generated from tracked posts · updated Jun 10, 2026

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19 posts

@alphaticaioJun 9, 2026 · 8:12 PM

-$5.14B. Five names: zero buys. $NVDA is the lone buyer. The supply chain split. $6.48B in buy blocks. $11.62B in sells. Net flow: -$5.14B. 12,621 prints. The buyers. Three names. That's it. $NVDA +$865M (771 blocks) $SPY +$432M (1,941 blocks) $GOOGL +$140M (118 blocks) The sellers. Five names with zero buy blocks. $MU -$2.64B (2,301 blocks, $0 IN BUYS) $TSLA -$636M (416 blocks, $0 IN BUYS) $AMD -$418M (280 blocks, $34M buys) $MSFT -$404M (136 blocks, $0 IN BUYS) $MRVL -$319M (373 blocks, $0 IN BUYS) $AAPL -$314M (263 blocks, $0 IN BUYS) $META -$273M (139 blocks, $25M buys) $AVGO -$237M (201 blocks) Five names with zero buy blocks: $MU, $TSLA, $MSFT, $MRVL, $AAPL. The most zero-buy names in a single session. Across a combined 3,489 blocks, not one was a buy. Zero buyer interest across five separate names on the same day. $NVDA: +$865M. The only semiconductor on the buy side. $MU -$2.64B zero buys. $MRVL -$319M zero buys. $AMD -$418M. $AVGO -$237M. The supply chain that moved as a unit for weeks just split. The institutions are buying $NVDA and selling everything around it. $MU: -$2.64B zero buys. Friday: -$9.27B. Monday: +$2.14B. Tuesday: -$2.64B zero buys. The most volatile name on the tape continues to swing billions in a single direction. $SPY: +$432M. The S&P 500 is being bought while individual names sell around it. The institutions want broad index exposure but are distributing individual positions. $MSFT: -$404M zero buys. The longest sustained sell pattern of the entire series. $MSFT has been on the sell side with near-zero or zero buys in the majority of sessions for weeks. Not one buy block today. $TSLA: -$636M zero buys. Yesterday +$986M with $42M sells. A $1.6B swing. $TSLA is now producing the same kind of daily reversals as $MU and $NVDA. The supply chain split is new. For weeks, $NVDA, $MU, $MRVL, $AMD, and $AVGO moved together. Today $NVDA alone buys while the other four sell. The institutions are differentiating $NVDA from the rest of the semi complex. The platform is being accumulated. The supply chain is being distributed. CPI tomorrow. The tape is de-risking ahead of the print. The tape doesn't have an opinion. It has a receipt.

@alphaticaioJun 8, 2026 · 8:07 PM

Nasdaq +0.86%. The tape: +$153M. Barely positive. The institutions are not chasing the bounce. $15.5B in buy blocks. $15.4B in sells. Net flow: +$153M. 18,694 prints. Friday: -$47.7B on a -1.78% Nasdaq day. Monday: +$153M on a +0.86% Nasdaq day. The sell was 300x more aggressive than the buy. The Nasdaq bounced 0.86%. The institutional tape barely moved. The buyers. Semis and supply chain only. $MU +$2.14B (2,988 blocks) $NVDA +$1.32B (1,148 blocks, Friday: $0 in buys) $TSLA +$986M (808 blocks, $42M sells) $MRVL +$668M (870 blocks) The sellers. $SPY and mega-caps. On a bounce day. $SPY -$3.14B (2,229 blocks, $530M buys vs $3.67B sells) $AAPL -$423M (1,273 blocks) $GOOGL -$300M (378 blocks) $QQQ -$87M (2,992 blocks, nearly flat) $SPY: -$3.14B on a bounce day. The institutions are selling $SPY into the rally. When the S&P 500 is up and the institutional tape is selling it at 7:1 sell-to-buy ratio, the bounce is being distributed, not accumulated. The institutions used the strength to sell. $NVDA: +$1.32B. Friday: $0 in buys across 3,517 blocks. The most extreme buyer absence on any name ever. Today: back at +$1.32B. The $NVDA daily reversal pattern continues. The institutions disappeared Friday and returned Monday. They're trading $NVDA day-by-day, not building a sustained position. $TSLA: +$986M with $42M in sells. Near-zero opposition. $TSLA appearing as a significant buyer for the first time in the series. The Tesla trade is new. $MU: +$2.14B. Friday: -$9.27B (largest single-name sell ever). Today: +$2.14B. The bounce but not close to recovering Friday's sell. The $MU pattern remains the most one-directional in both directions. $MRVL: +$668M. The supply chain buy continues. $GOOGL: -$300M. Alphabet was +$1.30B with $3.1M in sells on June 4. Today -$300M. Back to sell. $AAPL: -$423M. Sold on the bounce. Apple has been more consistently on the sell side than any other non-$MSFT name. $QQQ: -$87M. Nearly flat. $3.31B in buys against $3.39B in sells across 2,992 blocks. The Nasdaq 100 is balanced. The institutions are selective on the bounce. They bought four names: the semi supply chain ($MU, $NVDA, $MRVL) and $TSLA. They sold four names: $SPY, $AAPL, $GOOGL, and $QQQ (flat). They're buying specific thesis names and selling the broad market. The price bounced +0.86%. The tape moved +$153M. The delta between price action and institutional conviction is the widest of the series. The dark pool called the bounce. The lit tape isn't confirming it with size. Selective. Not euphoric. That distinction matters. The tape doesn't have an opinion. It has a receipt.

@alphaticaioJun 5, 2026 · 9:42 PM

BREAKING NEWS: S&P Global discloses quarterly changes to US S&P Indices Effective 22-Jun-26: S&P500 Adds: MRVL, FLEX Deletions: POOL, CPB S&P MidCap 400 Additions: ROKU, CDE, SMTC, SANM, VIAV Deletions: FLEX, BRBR, COTY, CNXC, BLKB S&P SmallCap 600 Additions: POOL, CPB, COTY, CNXC, BLKB, CACC, LAZ, EBC, WSBC, WRBY, NIC, LQDA, RSI, USLM, IVT Deletions: EMBC, UHT, SMTC, SANM, VIAV, OXM, GOGO, PRAA, IIIN, ETD, CTKB, MNRO, VITL, CABO, FWRD $MRVL $SPY $QQQ

@alphaticaioJun 4, 2026 · 8:28 PM

MRVL is up nearly 60% since we posted this on May 28 The Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal flagged the inflection before the price moved. The annual signal was 1/6 BEARISH. Our data said one thing. The quarterly said something different. We told you to watch it closely. The score has not upgraded yet. The direction was right. This is what the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal identifies before the price moves. $MRVL $SMH $QQQ

@alphaticaioJun 4, 2026 · 8:02 PM

+$18.85B. All eight names buy. Zero sellers. First time in the history of the series. $33.6B in buy blocks. $14.8B in sells. Net flow: +$18.85B. 30,389 prints. Buy/sell ratio: 2.3 to 1. In thirteen weeks and over sixty tape readings, there has always been at least one seller. Today: none. All eight names: $QQQ +$4.81B (3,750 blocks) $NVDA +$2.98B (2,581 blocks) $SPY +$2.66B (3,092 blocks) $MU +$1.49B (5,611 blocks) $MRVL +$1.41B (1,802 blocks, $142M sells) $GOOGL +$1.30B (651 blocks, $3.1M in sells) $IWM +$974M (350 blocks) $AVGO +$408M (1,582 blocks) $NVDA: +$2.98B. Yesterday: -$2.12B with $1M in buys. The most extreme buyer absence we had ever recorded. Today: +$2.98B. A $5.1B swing. The institutions who disappeared yesterday came back with full conviction. The $NVDA daily reversals continue. The most volatile name on the tape swings billions in each direction with zero notice. $GOOGL: +$1.30B with $3.1M in sells. Near-zero opposition. Alphabet has been on the sell side for weeks. Today it flipped with zero resistance. The ad/cloud platform sell that dominated the tape for two weeks is over for $GOOGL. The institutions decided the distribution is done. $AVGO: +$408M. Broadcom bought the day after earnings. $22.2B revenue. Q3 guide $29.4B. The rotation scanner showed $SOXX -2.9% today (sell the news in the semi index). But the tape bought $AVGO itself. The index sold the sector. The tape bought the name. Different signals from different instruments. The institutions are not selling $AVGO. They're selling the crowded $SOXX trade and buying the individual name. $QQQ: +$4.81B. The largest $QQQ buy of the series. The Nasdaq index was -0.58% today while the tape accumulated $4.81B in $QQQ buy blocks. The index was red while the institutions were buying it at record scale. $SPY: +$2.66B. $IWM: +$974M. All three indexes bought. The Dow surged +1.44%. The internals showed 2.08x breadth, the strongest of the series. The tape confirms the breadth with unanimous buying. $MU: +$1.49B. $MRVL: +$1.41B. The supply chain continues to be accumulated. The rotation scanner said: out of tech, into everything else. The tape said: buy everything. Both are true. The scanner shows where the relative performance is shifting. The tape shows the absolute flow. The rotation is real. So is the accumulation. The institutions are rotating AND buying. Not rotating and selling. Eight of eight. Zero sellers. The most unanimous tape of the series. The tape doesn't have an opinion. It has a receipt. $SPY $QQQ $NVDA

@alphaticaioJun 4, 2026 · 4:12 PM

ROTATION SCANNER | June 4, 2026 $XBI +3.0%. $XLF +2.5%. $SOXX -2.9%. $XLK -2.0%. The great rotation. Out of tech. Into everything else. Leader: $XBI (Biotech) +3.0% Laggard: $USO (Oil) -3.3% Spread: 6.3% The entire leadership of the market flipped overnight. For two weeks: tech led, semis surged, momentum dominated, biotech and financials sold. Today: biotech leads, financials surge, healthcare rallies, semis crash, tech sells, momentum unwinds. The rotation is complete. $AVGO beat last night. Revenue $22.2B, up 48% year-over-year. Q3 guidance $29.4B, up 84%. The number was strong. $SOXX is down 2.9% today. The $NVDA pattern repeats. Beat the number. Sell the stock. The institutional tape sold $AVGO for weeks heading into this print. They were positioned. SECTORS $XLF (Financials) +2.5% $XLV (Healthcare) +2.0% $XLE (Energy) +0.3% $XLK (Technology) -2.0% Financials at +2.5%. The largest $XLF move in weeks. Healthcare at +2.0%. Tech at -2.0%. The sector that led the market for two months is now the only one selling. The old economy sectors that were lagging for weeks are surging. FACTORS $QUAL (Quality) +0.7% $USMV (Min Vol) +0.5% $VLUE (Value) -1.0% $MTUM (Momentum) -1.7% Momentum crashing at -1.7%. Quality leading at +0.7%. When momentum sells and quality leads, the market is rotating out of the crowded winners and into fundamentals. The semi/AI trade was the most crowded momentum trade of 2026. Today it's unwinding. Min vol positive means defensives are bid. That's a regime shift. THEMATIC $XBI (Biotech) +3.0%. Session leader. $ITA (Defense) +0.8% $IGV (Software) -0.2% $SOXX (Semis) -2.9% $XBI leading for the first time this month. Biotech is the direct beneficiary of falling oil and falling yields. Lower oil means lower inflation means lower rate expectations means biotech financing costs drop. The rate-sensitive trade is working. $SOXX -2.9%. Post-$AVGO sell the news. The semi run from $NVDA through $MRVL through $AVGO was driven by three consecutive earnings beats. All three stocks sold after the beat. The market rewards the capex confirmation and then rotates the capital elsewhere. $IGV -0.2%. Software nearly flat after four days of extreme moves (+5.3%, +5.2%, -3.3%, -4.0%). The software volatility is compressing. MACRO $SLV (Silver) +0.9% $GLD (Gold) +0.7% $TLT (Bonds) +0.3% $USO (Oil) -3.3%. Session laggard. Oil crashing -3.3%. WTI at $92.98. Gold, silver, and bonds all green. The entire rate-sensitive macro shelf is positive. Oil falling is the catalyst: lower oil, lower inflation expectations, lower yields, rate-sensitive assets rally. The internals said 2.08x breadth, the strongest of the series. The Nasdaq is red. The scanner confirms: the market is not selling. It's rotating. Out of tech. Into financials, healthcare, biotech, quality, defensives, gold, silver, bonds. Everything that was lagging for two months is leading today. Everything that was leading is selling. The great rotation. Week thirteen.

@alphaticaioJun 2, 2026 · 9:07 PM

DARK POOL SCANNER | June 2, 2026 $NVDA: zero dark pool buys. $MSFT: zero dark pool buys. The $SPY divergence is back. One day after it resolved. Yesterday both tapes agreed on $SPY for the first time in weeks. The divergence resolved on an 8% oil shock day. We called it significant. Today: $SPY +$1.22B on the lit tape. -$144M in the dark pool. $QQQ +$1.54B lit. -$140M dark. $IWM +$98M lit. -$95M dark. All three indexes: bought in public, sold in the dark. The structural pattern lasted one session before returning. Dark Pool Buyers: $MU +$740M (6 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE) $AMZN +$182M (4 prints, ZERO dark pool sells, BOTH TAPES AGREE) $XLK +$113M (7 prints) $V +$72M (5 prints) Dark Pool Sellers: $NVDA -$717M (16 prints, ZERO dark pool buys, BOTH TAPES AGREE) $MSFT -$259M (6 prints, ZERO dark pool buys, BOTH TAPES AGREE) $AVGO -$178M (24 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE) $SPY -$144M (19 prints, LIT TAPE: BUY +$1.22B) $QQQ -$140M (24 prints, LIT TAPE: BUY +$1.54B) $IWM -$95M (11 prints, LIT TAPE: BUY +$98M) $NVDA: $1M in buys on the lit tape. Zero buys on the dark pool. Both tapes. Not one meaningful buyer on either venue. Three straight buy days ended with the most extreme seller-only session across both tapes in the history of the scanner. The rotation scanner showed $SOXX +4.9% today. The semis are surging but $NVDA specifically is under distribution. The market is buying the supply chain ($MU, $MRVL, $AMD) and selling the platform ($NVDA). $MSFT: $7.9M in buys on the lit tape. Zero buys on the dark pool. Both tapes. The two-day accumulation window ($1.86B and $2.45B with $5M sells) is over. The distribution pattern returned. $MU: +$2.39B on the lit tape. +$740M in the dark pool. Both tapes agree. Cross-venue consensus on $MU for the second straight session. The memory trade is the most persistent buy signal on the scanner. $AMZN: +$182M in the dark pool with zero sells. Flipped from yesterday's -$504M sell. The Amazon trade is volatile but today the dark pool is accumulating with zero opposition. The index divergence returned immediately. One day of agreement. Then back to the structural pattern: buy indexes in public, hedge them in the dark. The institutions want you to see the index buying. They don't want you to see the index hedging. The lit tape shows you what they're doing in public. The dark pool shows you what they're doing where they think nobody is watching. Now you're watching both. $SPY $QQQ $NVDA

@alphaticaioJun 2, 2026 · 8:28 PM

+$6.37B net buy. $NVDA flipped. -$2.12B with $1M in buys. Three names: zero sells. 12,396 block trades. $13.2B in buys. $6.8B in sells. The buyers. Supply chain, indexes, everything else. $MU +$2.39B (2,031 blocks) $QQQ +$1.54B (1,230 blocks) $SPY +$1.22B (1,308 blocks) $MRVL +$718M (630 blocks, ZERO SELLS) $AAPL +$399M (311 blocks, ZERO SELLS) $TSLA +$376M (405 blocks) $ORCL +$329M (170 blocks, $3.6M sells) $AMD +$317M (382 blocks, ZERO SELLS) $AMZN +$316M (196 blocks) $META +$311M (193 blocks) The sellers. Three names. $NVDA -$2.12B (1,332 blocks, $1M in buys vs $2.12B sells) $MSFT -$794M (435 blocks, $7.9M buys vs $802M sells) $AVGO -$551M (464 blocks) $NVDA: three straight buy days (+$1.82B, +$1.08B, +$3.57B). Then today: $1M in buys. The most extreme buyer absence on $NVDA we've ever recorded. Not $1 million net. $1 million total buy blocks against $2.12 billion in sells. Yesterday +$3.57B. Today -$2.12B. A $5.7B swing. The institutions who bought $NVDA for three consecutive sessions vanished in one day. Three names with zero sell blocks: $MRVL +$718M (Jensen Huang's "next trillion-dollar company"), $AAPL +$399M, $AMD +$317M. Pure one-directional accumulation with zero opposition on the same day $NVDA has zero buyers. The rotation within semis is sharpening. Buy the supply chain ($MU, $MRVL, $AMD). Sell the platform ($NVDA, $AVGO). The institutions are not leaving semis. They're rotating within semis. $ORCL: +$329M with $3.6M in sells. Oracle appearing in the top flow for the first time. Enterprise software being quietly accumulated. $MSFT: -$794M with $7.9M in buys. Back to the near-zero buyer distribution. The two-day accumulation streak ($1.86B and $2.45B with $5M in sells) was an anomaly. The sell is the pattern. $META: +$311M. Flipped from yesterday's -$1.75B sell with $4.4M in buys. The most volatile mega-cap on the tape. The tape doesn't have an opinion. It has a receipt. $NVDA $AVGO $MSFT

@alphaticaioJun 2, 2026 · 4:57 PM

@APompliano Our data was pointing to the same thing last week before the headlines did. Our Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal flagged $MRVL at an inflection point. Our score is still 1/6 BEARISH. The direction is changing. When the data confirms it, the score upgrades. That is when the real move happens. Not investment advice. https://t.co/OMPoaDuRA5

@alphaticaioJun 2, 2026 · 4:10 PM

ROTATION SCANNER | June 2, 2026 $SOXX +4.9%. $IGV -3.3%. $XBI -3.9%. The hardware/software split flipped. Again. Leader: $SOXX (Semiconductors) +4.9% Laggard: $XBI (Biotech) -3.9% Spread: 8.8% $IGV: +5.3% Friday. +5.2% Monday. -3.3% today. Back-to-back record software sessions followed by a crash. An 8.5% swing in 24 hours. The most violent thematic reversal in the history of the scanner. The $DELL driven software repricing that dominated Friday and Monday gave it all back in one session. $SOXX: +0.4% Monday. +4.9% today. $MRVL +25% on Jensen Huang's endorsement is pulling the entire semiconductor complex higher. Hardware took the lead back from software in one day. The rotation within tech is not a rotation. It's a war. Hardware and software are trading as opposing forces, not as a unified tech trade. When semis surge, software sells. When software surges, semis lag. The two sub-sectors have moved in opposite directions for most of the last three weeks. SECTORS $XLE (Energy) +1.1%. Still elevated from the Iran oil shock. $XLK (Tech) +0.9% $XLF (Financials) -0.1%. Flat. $XLV (Healthcare) -1.0%. Energy and tech the only green sectors. The Iran oil premium is holding even as WTI pulls back -0.5% from yesterday's 8% surge. FACTORS $MTUM (Momentum) +2.5%. Factor leader. $VLUE (Value) +0.7% $USMV (Min Vol) flat $QUAL (Quality) -0.2% Momentum surging at +2.5%. Winners keep winning. The momentum factor doesn't care about diversification. It chases what's working. Right now that's semis. The $NVDA, $MRVL, $MU names that have been accumulating on the institutional tape are the same names driving the momentum factor higher. THEMATIC $SOXX (Semis) +4.9%. Session leader. $ITA (Defense) -0.5% $IGV (Software) -3.3%. From +5.2% to -3.3%. $XBI (Biotech) -3.9%. Session laggard. $XBI at -3.9%. Biotech continues to sell. Oil still above $91 means inflation elevated, means higher-for-longer rate expectations, means rate-sensitive names get punished. Biotech has been on the sell side in the majority of sessions since the Iran conflict drove oil above $90. MACRO $SLV (Silver) +1.2% $GLD (Gold) +0.5% $TLT (Bonds) +0.3% $USO (Oil) flat Precious metals and bonds all positive. The safe haven macro trade is working alongside the semi momentum trade. Two different risk profiles. Both green. Oil flat after yesterday's 8% shock. The geopolitical premium is stabilizing, not expanding. 8.8% spread. The third consecutive session above 8%. The scanner has been showing extreme rotation for three straight days. Week thirteen. The data moves before the price does.

@alphaticaioJun 2, 2026 · 3:33 PM

MORNING INTERNALS | 11:24 AM ET $MRVL +25%. Oil pulls back. Indexes green. Breadth barely positive. The calm after the shock. Jensen Huang called $MRVL "the next trillion-dollar company." Marvell Technology is up 25%. Oil pulling back -0.5% after yesterday's 8% surge on Iran suspending talks. SpaceX IPO roadshow starts June 4, Nasdaq debut June 12. Dow +0.28%. S&P +0.24%. A/D ratio: 1.08x. 2,557 advancing vs 2,360 declining. Volume ratio: 1.35x. Up volume $1.55B vs down $1.15B. 47.2% above session VWAP. NYSE: 1.22x | Nasdaq: 1.02x | AMEX: 1.00x Breadth barely positive. Volume more decisively positive. VWAP below neutral. All three exchanges above 1.0x but barely. The market is holding, not surging. Yesterday: A/D 0.74x, Volume 0.95x, both negative. The weakest internals in weeks. Today: both positive. The oil shock internals reversed overnight. The 8% WTI surge is being absorbed. The panic faded. Volume at 1.35x is the stronger metric. Up volume is meaningfully larger than down volume. The money behind the advancers is there. But breadth at 1.08x means the advance is narrow. A handful of names pulling the indexes green while most stocks are near flat. VWAP at 47.2%. Below neutral for the fourth time in six sessions. The pattern persists: enough buying power to keep the indexes green, but the intraday positioning is tepid. Most stocks are below their session average price. $MRVL +25% is the headline catalyst. Jensen Huang's public endorsement. $MRVL first appeared in the dark pool on May 26 at +$86M across 11 prints. Two weeks later Jensen Huang endorsed it publicly. The dark pool positioned before the endorsement. Nasdaq at 1.02x despite $MRVL surging 25%. The $MRVL move is not broadening into the rest of the Nasdaq. It's a single-name event. When a name moves 25% and the exchange it trades on is barely above 1.0x, the rest of the exchange is flat to down. AMEX at 1.00x. Exactly flat. Small caps neither advancing nor declining. The broadening signal that appeared briefly on May 28 (AMEX 2.01x) remains absent. SpaceX IPO roadshow starts June 4 with the stock scheduled to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12. The largest tech IPO in years is ten days away. The market is holding. Not surging. Not selling. Digesting. Week thirteen. Day two. Watching the tape. $SPY $QQQ

@alphaticaioJun 2, 2026 · 12:22 PM

Last week the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal put MRVL at the same inflection point QCOM was at when we flagged it in April. We said watch it closely. MRVL is up 18% this morning. $MRVL $QCOM

@alphaticaioMay 28, 2026 · 2:01 PM

MRVL annual signal: 1/6 BEARISH. That has not changed. But here is what has. Revenue: $2.42B, up 28% YoY OCF: $638.8M, company record, up 92% YoY Gross margin: 52.1%, up 180bps YoY Q2 guidance: $2.7B, 3.9% above consensus FY27 Data Center growth guidance raised to 50%. Optical Interconnect growing 70% YoY. XPU revenue targeting $10B by FY29. When we scored MRVL 1/6 BEARISH, the accounting said one thing.When we scored MRVL 1/6 BEARISH, the accounting said one thing. The quarterly just said something different. The score has not moved. The direction has. $QCOM was 1/6 BEARISH. The accounting signal reversed in the quarterly. The score upgraded. The stock followed. $MRVL is at the same inflection point QCOM was at. We expect continued price hikes. Watch this one closely.

@alphaticaioMay 27, 2026 · 8:11 PM

$MRVL just reported. We called BEAT. Here are the receipts. Street EPS: $0.80 Alphatica EPS: $0.83 Actual EPS: $0.80 Street Revenue: $2.40B Alphatica Revenue: $2.45B Actual Revenue: $2.418B Revenue beat. EPS met. 13 straight quarters without a miss. Our EPS estimate was too aggressive at $0.83. The actual came in at $0.80, right at the street and the guide midpoint. We sized for a penny beat that did not materialize on the bottom line. Revenue beat the street by $18M but came in below our $2.45B estimate. We own the miss on the EPS call. The real story is not the Q1 print. It is the forward guide. Q2 guidance: $2.700B revenue, $0.93 EPS. The street was at $2.59B and $0.90. That is a $110M revenue raise and a $0.03 EPS raise above consensus. Matt Murphy: "We are significantly raising Marvell's revenue outlook for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028." Revenue growth accelerating to 35% YoY in Q2. We said in the preview that the forward guide matters as much as the print. We said the stock at $208 is pricing in the full $3B+ exit rate. Murphy just confirmed it and raised it. Record cash flow from operations at $639M. The 1/6 quality signal remains the watch item. Tonight's guide raise is the operational proof. Not Investment Advice. $SMH $QQQ

@alphaticaioMay 27, 2026 · 6:27 PM

MRVL reports tonight after the close. 1/6 on the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal. BEARISH on our disclosure signal. Up 226% in 52 weeks. 12 consecutive quarters without a miss. The stock is pricing in one future. Our data is describing another. Both can be true at the same time. Street EPS: $0.80 (Non-GAAP) Street Revenue: $2.40B Alphatica Estimates: EPS: $0.83 Revenue: $2.45B Initial Stock Reaction: CAUTIOUS OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ Marvell has not missed in 12 straight quarters. The beats are typically small, penny beats in the 1-5% range with one outlier (+61% in Q3 FY2026). Management guided Q1 at $2.40B revenue plus or minus 5% with non-GAAP EPS of $0.79 plus or minus $0.05. The street is right at the midpoint on both numbers. Six analyst upgrades in the last 90 days. HSBC upgraded to buy yesterday with a $300 target. Barclays upgraded in April to $150. The sell side is chasing this stock higher into earnings. OUR FOUR SIGNALS: Earnings Quality: 1/6 BEARISH. The stock is up 226%. The signal is 1/6. These measure different things. The stock prices expectations for the AI custom ASIC buildout. The AI ASIC story is real. Our data has not confirmed it yet. Disclosure Signal: BEARISH. The widest annual-quarterly divergence in our scoring universe. The 10-K looks calm: LOW distance (0.086), tone improving. But the quarterly filings are screaming. Five consecutive 10-Qs at extreme HIGH distance (0.30-0.33) with MD&A cosine distances of 0.47-0.55. Management is rewriting the entire quarterly business narrative every single quarter. Quarterly tone has collapsed from -0.015 to -0.028, deep in WORSE territory and nearly 3x worse than the annual tone. When quarterlies are this negative while the annual looks calm, the quarterly filings are the leading indicator. Prediction Model: BEAT. Twelve consecutive non-negative surprises. 69% lifetime beat rate across 100 quarters. 75% beat rate over the last 4 quarters. The May reporting period is 3 out of 4 beats over the last four years. The typical beat is a penny, not a blowout. We are sizing our estimate at $0.83, near the guide ceiling of $0.84. Earnings Risk Signal: +/-9.9% BULLISH. EVRP at 152.21, the highest we have published this season. ATM IV at 219%. IV spread at +3.98, calls trading at clear premium to puts. The options market is positioned for upside. Avg PMIE over 3 years is 12.38% with a max of 23.2%. This stock can move $20 in either direction tonight. THE CUSTOM ASIC INFLECTION: Matt Murphy on the Q4 call: fiscal 2026 revenue grew 42% to $8.2B with design wins at all-time records. 20-plus custom silicon sockets in production or going into production across every major hyperscaler. Revenue growth accelerating each quarter in FY2027. Bookings growing at record pace. Celestial AI and XConn acquisitions closed after year-end and are included in Q1 guidance. The custom ASIC thesis is the bet. Amazon, Microsoft, Google are building custom inference and training chips with Marvell's silicon. The TAM is real. The question is whether the accounting catches up to the stock price or the stock price gets ahead of the accounting. THE RISK: +36% in four weeks. +110% in eight weeks. +226% in 52 weeks. This stock has run further and faster into earnings than anything else we have covered this season. The last time MRVL moved this much on earnings was a 23% single-day move. The expected move tonight is $20. 1/6 quality with a BEARISH disclosure is the most cautionary accounting read we have published on any AI semiconductor this season. The QCOM parallel matters: QCOM was 1/6 while the business was recovering. The VA eventually released. The score upgraded. The stock followed. The question for MRVL is whether tonight's print shows that same inflection. $198.89 is the current price. $2.40B is the guide. $0.80 is the bar. 12 straight is the streak. Now we wait for the proof. $MRVL $SMH $MSFT $QQQ

@alphaticaioMay 27, 2026 · 5:11 PM

@hungrydongxi We are going to have $CRM and $MRVL out before 230PM.

@alphaticaioMay 26, 2026 · 8:58 PM

DARK POOL SCANNER | May 26, 2026 | S&P All-Time High $3.9B in off-exchange flow. 150 prints ≥$5M. Net: -$872M sell. The lit tape said +$4.56B net buy. The dark pool says -$872M net sell. The headline disagrees. The detail agrees. Both tapes are running the same playbook. Dark Pool Sellers: $SPY -$703M (16 prints, $27M buys vs $730M sells) $MSFT -$307M (7 prints, $26M buys vs $332M sells) $AVGO -$206M (2 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE) $AAPL -$32M (12 prints) Dark Pool Buyers: $QQQ +$189M (19 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE) $MU +$185M (15 prints, ZERO dark pool sells, BOTH TAPES AGREE) $IWM +$134M (11 prints) $MRVL +$86M (11 prints, NEW on the dark pool) $MU: +$5.02B on the lit tape with zero sells. +$185M in the dark pool with zero sells. Zero opposition on both tapes. The cross-venue consensus on $MU is the strongest of the entire series. Not one seller on either venue. $SPY: -$826M on the lit tape. -$703M in the dark pool. Both tapes selling the index at all-time highs. $27M in dark pool buys vs $730M in sells. Near-zero buyer interest off-exchange while the S&P prints a record. The institutions are selling into the high on every venue. $MSFT: -$878M on the lit tape. -$307M in the dark pool. $26M in dark pool buys vs $332M in sells. Fifth straight session under sustained distribution. The $MSFT sell is the quietest persistent pattern on the scanner. Every day. Both tapes. Near-zero buys. $AVGO: -$208M on the lit tape. -$206M in the dark pool. Nearly identical on both tapes. Broadcom being sold at the same rate on every venue. Cross-venue precision. $MRVL appears in the dark pool for the first time at +$86M across 11 prints. Marvell Technology being accumulated off-exchange. The supply chain trade is expanding. First it was $MU. Then $AMD. Now $MRVL. The institutions are moving down the AI memory and compute supply chain, accumulating each name as the thesis broadens. The lit tape and the dark pool disagree on the net total. They agree on every individual name. Buy $MU, $QQQ, $IWM, $MRVL. Sell $SPY, $MSFT, $AVGO, $AAPL. Both tapes. Same direction. Same names. The total doesn't matter. The names matter. And on the names, both tapes agree. The lit tape shows you what they're doing in public. The dark pool shows you what they're doing where they think nobody is watching. Now you're watching both.

@alphaticaioMay 26, 2026 · 4:25 PM

🚨ALERT: MRVL-US: Marvell Technology upgraded to buy from hold at HSBC ($196.33, 0.00) They are buying in both exchanges: MRVL DARK POOL: Buy Volume: $ 69.2M, Sell Volume: $0.0M, Net Volume: $+69.2M, Number: 7 MRVL LIT EXCHANGE: Buy Volume: $ 638.6M, Sell Volume: $ 53.6M, Net Volume: $+585.0M, Number: 212 $MRVL $SMH

@alphaticaioMay 24, 2026 · 4:04 PM

The week ahead has one day that matters. Thursday, May 28. Before the open: Core PCE, GDP first revision, personal spending, personal income, durable orders, new home sales, and weekly jobless claims. All at 8:30 AM. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Last week, 5-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.9% from 3.4%. The 30-year Treasury hit 5.18%, a post-2007 high. Markets are now pricing 18 basis points of rate hikes through year-end, up from 11 a week ago. A hot Core PCE confirms the hawkish FOMC minutes. A cool print reopens the cut debate. GDP revision tells you whether growth is holding or cracking under the weight of higher rates. The earnings calendar is not light either: Wednesday PM: $CRM, MRVL, $SNOW, SNPS, HPQ, A Thursday AM: DLTR, BURL, GAP, KSS Thursday PM: COST, $DELL, ADSK, NTAP, MDB, OKTA CRM is the enterprise AI spending bellwether. $MRVL is the custom silicon play that either validates or challenges the NVDA narrative. COST tells you where the consumer is. DELL tells you where enterprise hardware demand is. Monday is closed for Memorial Day. Tuesday is quiet. Wednesday the earnings start. Thursday is the entire week compressed into one morning. Core PCE is the number. Thursday is the day. Alphatica Earnings Estimates coverage on $CRM, $SNOW and $MRVL prior to the reports.