Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) on Surfaced

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Serenity

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Serenity

@aleabitoredditSemis946.9k followers

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$SNDK· Sandisk

161 mentions since Dec 2025calls only

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About this voice

@aleabitoreddit posted 3,371 times across 473 distinct tickers over the past 12 months, accumulating 8,736 cashtag mentions. The voice's most frequently mentioned tickers were $SIVE with 685 mentions, $AXTI with 520 mentions, and $LITE with 492 mentions. Notable activity also included 391 mentions of $NVDA and 433 mentions of $AAOI. The most recent cashtag mention occurred on 2026-07-08 referencing $SPCX in relation to AI model development.

AI-generated from tracked posts · updated Jul 9, 2026

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latest 50 of 161

@aleabitoredditJul 9, 2026 · 12:46 PM

Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published. Showing AI ramping as usual: - LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory - LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics - Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027. - as much as $145B capex spend this year “It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027”

@aleabitoredditJul 7, 2026 · 2:03 PM

Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.

@aleabitoredditJul 6, 2026 · 5:48 AM

Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as expected. Hyperscalers bottlenecking upstream photonics confirmation validation… on all fronts from pricing, demand, to supply shortages. My personal expectation was that price hikes would keep going up like $SNDK given ramping optical demand. We’ll see if this turns out right given another 2 years of the demand curve.

@aleabitoredditJul 5, 2026 · 3:36 PM

Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream. - MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond - UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est. - UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter. - Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations. Something to note: Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters. But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation. I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names... I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.

@aleabitoredditJul 2, 2026 · 7:12 PM

Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.

@aleabitoredditJul 2, 2026 · 5:26 PM

@MosheFeins48329 After $AXTI went from $13 to $140, somewhere along the way up they had a massive float expansion along with dilution. Which it got approved, so as I mentioned before, I wasn't as comfortable talking about it if there's excessive dilution on retail investors. But I do think it's undervalued if they weaponize price hikes like $SNDK.

@aleabitoredditJun 29, 2026 · 11:51 PM

@gurukid5995 Markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. Memory from $SNDK to $MU was the market's main focus this month, while optical names like $AAOI corrected. I think we'll see a rotation back into photonics eventually, it's personally my highest concentration theme.

@aleabitoredditJun 26, 2026 · 3:06 AM

FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.

@aleabitoredditJun 25, 2026 · 4:55 PM

Nah, gonna fill out the job application for $WEN and set up camp behind the dumpsters. Even $MU and $SNDK ridiculous performance today couldn't save my port. Cheering on Japan though, hoping Sweden gets mogged with a 2-0 to represent the 20% drop.

@aleabitoredditJun 25, 2026 · 2:55 PM

@firstadopter Yep, I lost a sht ton recently and makes me sad if others did too. Always hard to build a port full of $SNDK type longs that go up despite macro climates.

@aleabitoredditJun 25, 2026 · 12:26 AM

@AliTava2020 $DRAM is one of the more positive ETFs I have a view on since it's exposure to SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU, and $SNDK. Which is everything people kinda want for memory exposure.

@aleabitoredditJun 23, 2026 · 3:42 PM

Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.

@aleabitoredditJun 21, 2026 · 8:33 AM

@padredelaverde2 Nittobo (3110) is one of the most frustrating Japanese companies I've seen. They hold an monopoly in glass fiber cloth, like ~90%+ market share. But refuse to price hike T-Glass ASP, beyond something small like 20-30%. Could easy triple company valuations if they followed $SNDK + NAND but just due to Japanese culture, they won't do it.

@aleabitoredditJun 21, 2026 · 6:18 AM

Apparently gym bros are the new hyperscalers. They’ve created a new bottleneck with whey protein? Now there’s $SNDK style price hikes. Maybe creatine is next with shortages. https://t.co/YY5waMXzKH

@aleabitoredditJun 19, 2026 · 12:29 PM

@amandaong23 i personally don't see any chance of oversupply, if anything photonics/lasers will be extremely supply constrained. it would be the same media playbook that went on with YMTC/CXMT earlier in the year with Chinese DRAM/NAND flooding narratives, now $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, and others are ATH.

@aleabitoredditJun 18, 2026 · 3:12 PM

@0xPepeTerelu Yeah, pretty sure Citron shorted $SNDK around $600 and they're probably underwater by a ton now.

@aleabitoredditJun 18, 2026 · 2:54 PM

Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.

@aleabitoredditJun 16, 2026 · 7:54 AM

I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well! Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.

@aleabitoredditJun 13, 2026 · 9:26 PM

@JaaidevV I personally like $SIVE, usually the same names keep on compounding like $SNDK if they’re important to AI? I’m not selling a share, since it looks like we’re only at the start of the next supercycle.

@aleabitoredditJun 12, 2026 · 2:00 PM

All the $SNDK short sellers went extinct. Can’t believe it’s almost $2000 now? That aside feels like everyone is just waiting for the $SPCX IPO in a few hours. https://t.co/EahzuEy1KE

@aleabitoredditJun 11, 2026 · 6:19 PM

Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now. Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran. This market is so volatile… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL

@aleabitoredditJun 10, 2026 · 4:07 PM

Just in case you weren’t aware… The broader index is down a significant -3-4%. Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK. And are largely affected by wider selloffs. Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only? https://t.co/XRlXdeHbm1

@aleabitoredditJun 4, 2026 · 7:15 AM

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

@aleabitoredditJun 1, 2026 · 5:22 PM

I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is building up capacity. Just a general rule of thumb in general if your name isnt space or quantum, markets are forward looking round 8 months. That revenue ramp inflection point is coming, more of a matter of when, waiting for it, and embracing volatility in the meantime.

@aleabitoredditJun 1, 2026 · 1:12 AM

@michaelsikand Yep agreed, i think just in general if your stock isn’t called $MSFT or a big Software name. You would need to calculate your own fwd P/E ratios with hypergrowth names like $AAOI or $SNDK.

@aleabitoredditMay 30, 2026 · 4:24 AM

I still find it funny how all the software bros are happy about a 10-15% recovery with $CRM to $FIG. After getting wiped 25-60% of their portfolio. Meanwhile all the AI names from $SNDK to $AAOI are casually up 200-1000%.

@aleabitoredditMay 27, 2026 · 2:48 PM

I actually got every single one of these predictions right > InP substrate bottleneck > laser bottleneck, and markets rewarding $AAOI with laser fabs for it. But it did take markets 6 months to realize how important $AXTI was. As well as for the bottleneck to start showing up in the epiwafer companies like landmark. All the modeling with AXT was with former contracts made, not after $SNDK style ASP hikes.

@aleabitoredditMay 27, 2026 · 12:45 PM

Yep, I model financials around every stock I post, I don’t post breakdowns a lot of time to make it more digestible for retail investors to read w/o jargon. You can see my old $RPI revenue estimates modeling, I got that spot on. Same with $MU gross margin estimates before earnings, spot on. I’ve modeled $AAOI capacity ramp x ASP, from projections to derive MC estimates. A lot of the bottleneck names like $AXTI it’s impossible to model $SNDK style ASP so it’s more of an estimate on how much they can hike + how important they are.

@aleabitoredditMay 25, 2026 · 4:08 PM

$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?

@aleabitoredditMay 24, 2026 · 6:39 PM

AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.

@aleabitoredditMay 24, 2026 · 2:28 AM

Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.

@aleabitoredditMay 23, 2026 · 4:55 PM

I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.

@aleabitoredditMay 17, 2026 · 4:16 AM

I'm not sure why people look at 13F filings so deeply when all the hedge funds are super behind on names like $JBL, $LITE and others. The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $SNDK. Not following them 3 months after they file.

@aleabitoredditMay 15, 2026 · 9:34 PM

Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?

@aleabitoredditMay 13, 2026 · 10:17 PM

What an insane day for photonics. $SIVE up 31.3% $TSEM up 23.1% $AAOI 20.01%. It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go. Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK? Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n

@aleabitoredditMay 11, 2026 · 9:25 PM

@EVOLBullStocks I actually like NCI a lot and hope Japanese chemical players get more attention. It's just a very boring type of industry (but great compounders) and investors seem to prefer the $SNDK hypergrowth stories right now.

@aleabitoredditMay 11, 2026 · 9:14 PM

For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad. But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1. TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking) Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY), Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY). Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY) News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff. 1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines. -> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year. -> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter. So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off. However: Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal. Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something? Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment. 2. Order book "miss": "Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands." This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines. But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2. _ Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future. IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat. Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months. But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company. TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines. Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.

@aleabitoredditMay 9, 2026 · 8:07 PM

Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.

@aleabitoredditMay 9, 2026 · 4:51 AM

I feel like all the $FISV, $PYPL, $NVO value/dividend investors went extinct this cycle? Was very popular, even last year… But if you pivoted to semis like $INTC or $SNDK, you would be up 200-400%+ YTD. X feed is just AI bottlenecks now, feel like I helped start a new trend? https://t.co/tj7ykBGMyr

@aleabitoredditMay 8, 2026 · 4:46 PM

@EhrmantrautCap_ I was talking about $SNDK as a joke. $IREN is a true meme stock.

@aleabitoredditMay 8, 2026 · 4:14 PM

Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point. But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu

@aleabitoredditMay 6, 2026 · 3:14 AM

Just for the visual learners about CPO: This is what the CPO market growth looks like from GS + $LITE transcript confirmations. There's certain names that are very high-beta correlated to CPO. Maybe... not the best idea to copy firms named after Orange Peels on $AAOI to $SNDK to short names. At the very beginning or middle of supercycles? Especially if you're retail, live in Europe, and only look at last 12 months revenue instead of forward growth.

@aleabitoredditMay 5, 2026 · 4:21 PM

I’m just watching everything from $EWY to $SNDK go up enormous amounts… Even $MU is up 12% today. Uhhh… YTD is getting a little ridiculous. https://t.co/FJKQjq8YJk

@aleabitoredditMay 2, 2026 · 6:29 AM

I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 9:17 PM

@iamsattam $SNDK already rose 72.59% the month before earnings... so markets were definitely pricing in a beat. Not sure which way it goes, but if it were a company without much visibility going into earnings. Then they reported those types of numbers, would be up a lot higher.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 9:12 PM

@iamsattam I said with memory companies like $SNDK or $MU, the repricing happens before the actual earnings. Not actual earnings. You can estimate it with third party NAND/DRAM Trendforce type price hike reports. Then estimate gross margins off of those. I did it for Micron earlier as an example and got reported gross margins spot on.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 8:58 PM

$SNDK earnings are just way too good... Q3 earnings: Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat) EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat) Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.) Q4 2024 projections: Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates) EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates) Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data). Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings. Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr... Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.

@aleabitoredditApr 28, 2026 · 1:33 AM

@JapanDeepValue1 Bro we’re in a memory supercycle, 19.95% YTD before this is considered flat! $SNDK is up 300% YTD so I have high expectations for some names

@aleabitoredditApr 24, 2026 · 2:45 PM

Who thought it was a good idea to give Tangerine Peel inspired companies the funds… To short the fastest growing names in photonics and memory? $SNDK and $AAOI have been on a hyperbolic run. And I see names like AAOI continuing to grow as optical transceiver + Made in America supply chains grow.

@aleabitoredditApr 23, 2026 · 9:23 PM

Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle. It’s going from: $NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc And next would be stuff like $LPK glass substrates or some random niche material from Japan. Most of these span multi-years. If $LITE is sold out into 2028 and it’s H1 2026. Hyperscalers are buying out anything $AAOI can make. It’s probably good idea to just be patient with your existing positions. Because there’s likely going to be some random green candle that you miss out on chasing the current news cycle.