KaizenInvestor (@kaizen_investor) on Surfaced

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KaizenInvestor

@kaizen_investorLong Research41.5k followers

KaizenInvestor

@kaizen_investorLong Research41.5k followers

Past 12mo:1.8kmentions279tickers890posts

$MU· Micron Technology

18 mentions since Dec 2025calls only

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@kaizen_investor posted 883 times over the past 12 months, generating 1,796 cashtag mentions across 277 distinct tickers. The most frequently mentioned tickers were $PL (178 mentions), $IREN (117 mentions), $AMPX (72 mentions), $HIMS (72 mentions), and $GOOGL (67 mentions), with first mentions beginning in mid-December 2025. Recent activity shows focus on semiconductor memory dynamics and aerospace developments, reflecting deep research into structural industry shifts and competitive positioning within those sectors.

AI-generated from tracked posts · updated Jul 9, 2026

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18 posts

@kaizen_investorJul 8, 2026 · 4:46 PM

Interesting discussion panel on memory with the VP memory system Research of $SKHY (Sk Hynix). On HBM - SK Hynix is the firm leader in HBM but they do not believe it is the final answer. They are working very hard to keep innovating and tackle the limits of HBM. As long as HBM is the bandwith solution, memory will stay a bottleneck. On memory as a commodity - the panel did not see memory as a commodity any more. There has been a fundamental change in the logic between the GPU and the memory. Memory used to be something that was build in an architecture, now architectures are build around memory. Which is a fundamental difference. That is the main reason we see long-term contracts on memory now. On 3 major players - 20 years ago their used to be 40 memory players, now 3 main players remain: $MU, $SKHY, and Samsung. Others have died because they could not follow the physical innovation but now the business model completely changed. From selling a memory chip to engineering an architecture together with the end-customer like $NVDA. Companies will need to succeed in this business model change to keep up with the competition. On Dram vs HBM - It takes 3x longer to build HBM in comparison to Dram. The manufacturing process is also way more complex and you have the problem of stacking. The memory layers are vertically stacked and have a 10% yield loss because you compound the yield loss of each layer. It makes it difficult to scale up production fast. On capacity vs bandwith - They are increasing the capacity but are limited to how much bandwidth they can create. So they will have a lot of bandwidth shortage in the future. On memory shortage - There is a major focus on HBM, so the dram supply will decrease. They think the shortage will be for another couple of years if we look at the capex of the hyperscalers. I’ll discuss this panel and a couple of others that I’ve watched during the Raise summit today in a space hosted by @LandoInvests tonight. Make sure to join if you can.

@kaizen_investorJun 25, 2026 · 7:18 AM

Sk Hynix up 14% as a result of the massive $MU earnings. https://t.co/9PmEas82od

@kaizen_investorJun 24, 2026 · 8:10 PM

$MU just completely smashed earnings. Stock is up 10% at the moment. Micron reported a 346% revenue growth YoY and a 1,215% EPS growth YoY. They alos mentioned shipping HBM4 in high volumes to their lead customer and sampling next-gen HBM4E for 2027, proves they are executing flawlessly on their roadmap. Crucially, the mention of newly executed Strategic Customer Agreements directly answers the question about future capacity, locking in multi-year predictability. The data centers and cloud businesses generated staggering gross margins (87% and 83% respectively), confirming that pricing power remains fiercely intact. While capital expenditures are hitting record levels ($7.1 billion this quarter), the threat of oversupply is mitigated by the fact that their massive FQ4 revenue guidance ($50 billion) proves demand is expanding just as fast as their factories.

@kaizen_investorJun 24, 2026 · 7:01 PM

For those who think memory is still cyclical, you should be able to spot a small difference in the $MU revenues in comparison to previous cycles, right? https://t.co/cxztWBIO7I

@kaizen_investorJun 24, 2026 · 5:14 PM

$MU to save the market tonight as they report earnings. Insane numbers are to be expected from the company. Revenues are expected to reach $35,294 which would be a 279% YoY growth and a 48% QoQ growth. The EPS numbers are even more insane. The expectations are that EPS will hit 20.28 which would be a staggering 962% YoY growht and a 66% QoQ growth. Some other points I'll look for in the earning calls: 1. Updates on advanced HBM technology roadmaps High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is the specialized memory that sits directly next to AI processors (like Nvidia's chips) to feed them data at lightning speed. I want to know how Micron’s next-generation chips, like HBM4, are coming along. In the AI race, having the fastest, most power-efficient memory is the only way to stay competitive against rivals like SK Hynix and Samsung. 2. Visibility into future HBM capacity allocation Micron’s HBM supply for 2026 is already effectively sold out. Because demand is so massive right now, the market wants to look further ahead. I will be listening for clues that Micron is already locking in binding customer contracts for 2027 and 2028. Cementing those long-term deals proves that the AI boom is creating sustained revenue, not just a temporary spike. 3. Sustainability of DRAM and NAND pricing While HBM gets all the AI glory, traditional memory chips (DRAM for active memory, NAND for storage) still make up the bulk of Micron's sales. Because so much manufacturing space has been dedicated to HBM, regular chips are in short supply, which has driven their prices up. The big question is whether Micron can keep charging these premium prices, or if the market is going to cool off. 4. Capital expenditure risks concerning potential oversupply The memory industry has a notorious boom-and-bust history: companies see high demand, build too many factories, and accidentally flood the market, causing prices to crash. I want reassurance that Micron is expanding carefully and not setting the stage for a future oversupply. 5. Management tone on structural margin durability Profit margins in the memory sector are currently at record highs. I will be analyzing the executive team's confidence levels on the earnings call. I want to know if management believes these massive profits are structural, meaning the AI revolution has permanently transformed the memory business into a more profitable industry, or if this is just a cyclical peak before margins inevitably drop again.

@kaizen_investorApr 25, 2026 · 4:10 PM

@crwdvstr Yes, I like $MU as well. Interesting to see what the US listing will do.

@kaizen_investorApr 5, 2026 · 8:13 PM

War-driven energy inflation is inevitable, but companies solving the AI bottleneck are uniquely positioned to protect their margins. Their critical role gives them the pricing power to simply pass costs onto customers. As a result, these bottleneck companies could emerge as prime investment opportunities during market corrections. - Memory and HBM: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, $MU - Packaging and OSAT: ASE Technology, $AMKR, JCET Group - Server and Rack Integration: $SMCI, $DELL, $HPE, Foxconn - Networking Silicon: $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO, $ANET - Photonics and Optical Components: Ayar Labs, $ALAB, $CRDO, $COHR, $LITE - Power, Thermal management and Grid: $VRT, $MOD, $NVT, $SU.PA, $IREN, $CIFR

@kaizen_investorApr 4, 2026 · 10:58 AM

HBM suppliers need Helium, they use it for thermal management and to create a clean environment. Companies like $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung are all affected by the closing of the Strait. SK Hynix and Samsung reportedly hold between four and six months of helium stockpiles. South Korean government officials have confirmed this buffer should allow them to ride out the immediate shock until at least June 2026 without throttling wafer starts. Until June, it should not affect the production or margins of SK Hynix. They are not just waiting on a solution, at the moment SK and Samsung are actively looking at other Helium suppliers. Most of these comes from the US. They will pay massive premiums if the Strait don’t open soon. This will have an effect on the profit margins of SK and Samsung. This will mostly be passed on to the customer. Most long-term contracts got energy clauses. So even though they are already sold out until 2026, they will be able to protect the margins due to the clauses. We saw the same thing during the Ukraine energy crisis. Most companies were able to keep gp margins high. On the long-term we even saw a positive trend. While prices need to go up to protect gp margins now. Prices won’t come down when energy prices drop. We saw an enormous gp margin spike after the Ukraine energy crisis was under control. Certainly for companies who control a critical bottleneck in the supply chain.

@kaizen_investorMar 23, 2026 · 9:46 PM

Companies like $GOOGL and $MSFT fighting over HBM supply now. There are still so many bottlenecks in this AI supply chain. Great for Samsung, $MU and SK Hynix shareholders.

@kaizen_investorMar 23, 2026 · 12:43 PM

SK hynix’s planned U.S. ADR listing is a great strategic move that goes well beyond closing the 5.7x vs. 12.1x P/E gap with $MU. While the multiple expansion and potential SOX index inclusion are clear catalysts, the real alpha is in the mechanics: • FX Efficiency: Raising KRW 10-15T directly in USD naturally hedges their CapEx. Buying next-gen semiconductor equipment (like ASML EUVs) for the Yongin cluster requires USD/EUR. This bypasses KRW currency drag. • HBM Dominance: Securing this capital with zero net dilution (offsetting canceled treasury shares) allows them to aggressively defend their HBM market-share lead with Nvidia without penalizing current shareholders. • Corporate Governance: This signals a shift toward Western-style capital allocation, directly attacking the structural Korea Discount.

@kaizen_investorMar 18, 2026 · 9:42 PM

@brown_te Samsung is already planning a 50% HBM capacity surge this year, and SK Hynix is aggressively accelerating its new factory timelines. So, it will be pretty soon. But I honestly did not expect $MU to drop after these earnings. So, had to look for some reasons.

@kaizen_investorMar 18, 2026 · 8:29 PM

$MU delivered incredible earnings, yet the stock dropped 3%. Behind the financials, the core driver is intense demand for specialized AI memory chips, which are entirely sold out. This shortage gives Micron tremendous pricing power, rapidly boosting profit margins. However, investors are cashing out because they worry about how long these peak profits can last before competitors eventually flood the market with new supply. Broader economic fears are also making traders quick to take their profits off the table.

@kaizen_investorMar 18, 2026 · 5:42 PM

$MU reports earnings tonight. With an expected EPS of 8.66, investors have high expectations. To understand how they are really doing, we need to look past the basic profit numbers. Here is what matters most: Special AI Chips: We need to see how fast they are building the advanced memory required for AI and whether they are producing it efficiently without too many defects. Chip Prices: It is important to watch if the prices for everyday computer and phone memory are staying strong rather than stalling. Smart Spending: We are looking for them to control their spending on new factories so they avoid flooding the market with extra chips. AI vs. Gadgets: The massive demand from companies building AI needs to be strong enough to make up for people buying fewer phones and personal computers. Leftover Stock: We want to confirm that tech companies have finally cleared out their backstock of older chips and are forced to start buying new ones again.

@kaizen_investorMar 14, 2026 · 9:23 PM

Big companies are announcing huge layoffs. $AMZN to cut 30,000 jobs, $META potentially 15,000 jobs. $ORCL, $XYZ, $CRM, $ASML,… all announced cuts as well. It’s not that those companies are doing badly financially, they report record earnings with growing margins. They all expect a lot from AI. What we saw from perplexity yesterday is a first glimpse of what AI will be able to do in the near future. With jobs being cut, more and more money will flow towards R&D and more importantly the CapEx. Everyone is investing in AI and those numbers will only increase. We are still in the early stages of AI and the supply chain is still evolving. There are some major bottlenecks forming that are slowing down the progress of AI. The most profitable companies are spending billions to make sure they can control these bottlenecks. This creates possibilities for investors. The major bottlenecks at the moment: - Memory and HBM: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, $MU - Packaging and OSAT: ASE Technology, $AMKR, JCET Group - Server and Rack Integration: $SMCI, $DELL, $HPE, Foxconn - Networking Silicon: $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO, $ANET - Photonics and Optical Components: Ayar Labs, $ALAB, $CRDO, $COHR, $LITE - Power, Thermal management and Grid: $VRT, $MOD, $NVT, $SU.PA, $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR No financial advice

@kaizen_investorMar 9, 2026 · 7:06 PM

I bought 4 new shares today. The first buy I want to share with you is SK Hynix. I bought the stock at €487 at the Frankfurt stock exchange today. I believe that Hynix is a foundational AI infrastructure play that the broader market is still severely mispricing. Generative AI training requires massive, rapid data ingestion, and right now, logic processors are quite literally starving without stacked memory. What do they do? SK Hynix is the indispensable backbone of Nvidia's AI accelerators, commanding a monopolistic 62 percent global market share in High-Bandwidth Memory. They established this massive lead through a proprietary packaging process called MR-MUF. This technology dissipates heat drastically better than the processes used by rivals like Samsung, resulting in far fewer defects. Because manufacturing and installing the microscopic through-silicon via production lines takes 18 to 24 months, new capacity cannot simply be spun up overnight. Consequently, SK Hynix’s entire production capacity is fully booked and completely sold out through 2026. How do they make money? This severe supply constraint has forced a highly profitable evolution. SK Hynix has transitioned from a cyclical commodity memory manufacturer into a full-stack AI memory provider. They are now selling highly customized, premium HBM modules directly to hyperscalers under long-term, forward-booked supply agreements. The financials reflect this dominance. They are generating record-breaking numbers, boasting an incredible 49% operating profit margin and sitting on a cash pile of $19.2 billion. What is my business case? The core investment case rests on a massive valuation asymmetry. Wall Street is terrified of historical memory cycles and is pricing SK Hynix as a volatile commodity facing an imminent bust. The stock is currently trading at a severely distressed Next Twelve Months Forward P/E of just 5.2x. Running a reverse discounted cash flow analysis reveals that the market implies a mere 7.6% free cash flow growth rate over the next decade. This is completely disconnected from the structural growth of the AI infrastructure buildout, which easily exceeds 25%. Because this AI expansion is a permanent structural shift rather than a fleeting cycle, the equity is profoundly undervalued and primed for multiple expansion. What is my exit strategy? First, I think I must closely monitor the cascading effects of the conflict in Iran on global LNG prices. A sustained spike in energy costs could severely compress SK Hynix's operating margins due to the highly power-intensive nature of semiconductor fabrication. The other immediate risk is a severe HBM supply glut emerging in late 2026 or 2027. If new capacity from Samsung and $MU finally floods the market, it would rapidly erode SK Hynix's pricing power and margins. Furthermore, with 40 percent of their global DRAM supply and 25 percent of their NAND output manufactured inside China, any revocation of US export licenses for advanced chipmaking tools could render a massive portion of their legacy supply chain technologically obsolete. However, that downside is heavily priced into the current 5.2x multiple. I feel that the market is giving us a clear opportunity to buy a monopoly-like asset feeding the biggest technological shift of our decade at a distressed valuation, and the upside is simply too massive to ignore. Note: This are my own financial decisions and no financial advice. Do your own research.

@kaizen_investorMar 4, 2026 · 4:47 PM

I have written a full article on the AI chip supply chain. The supply chain is structured into 4 different phases with 13 layers: 1. Raw Materials: $SHECY, $SUOPY, GlobalWafers, $WAF.DE, $SHWDF, $AXTI, $IQE 2. Manufacturing Equipment: $ASML, $ASM.AS, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC 3. EDA & Core Intellectual Property: $SNPS, $CDNS, $ARM, $RMBS 4. Chip Design: $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $QCOM 5. Foundries: $TSM, Samsung Semiconductor, $SMIC 6. Memory and HBM: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, $MU 7. Packaging and OSAT: ASE Technology, $AMKR, JCET Group 8. Server and Rack Integration: $SMCI, $DELL, $HPE, Foxconn 9. Networking Silicon: $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO, $ANET 10. Photonics and Optical Components: Ayar Labs, $ALAB, $CRDO, $COHR, $LITE 11. Power, Thermal management and Grid: $VRT, $MOD, $NVT, $SU.PA, $IREN, $CIFR 12. Hyperscalers: $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META 13. AI Storage, platforms and Data: VAST data, Weka, NetAPP, $PLTR, Blue Yonder, $KXSCF The article covers it all.

@kaizen_investorMar 3, 2026 · 1:43 PM

SK Hynix still looks like a clear buying opportunity to me. This graph perfectly shows why. Despite their stock price running up, their earnings growth is so explosive that the valuation keeps compressing. Every time the Forward P/E spikes, they report massive revenues and raise guidance, crushing the P/E ratio back down. Right now, they are trading at a Forward P/E of roughly 5.37. They will report earnings at the end of April, and I expect this cycle to repeat. Competitors like Samsung and $MU trade at a Forward P/E of 8.38 and 10.17. Hynix has a clear valuation advantage against those two, and it all stems from their monopoly over $NVDA's HBM supply. Let me explain Nvidia’s GPUs are incredibly fast at processing data, but traditional memory chips couldn't feed them data quickly enough. This bottleneck is known as the 'memory wall'. The solution was HBM. Instead of placing memory chips flat next to the processor, HBM stacks multiple ultra-thin DRAM memory dies vertically, right on top of each other. To make them communicate, engineers punch thousands of microscopic holes straight through the silicon layers and fill them with copper. These are called Through-Silicon Vias (TSVs). It creates a massive, multi-lane superhighway directly into the GPU, solving the bandwidth problem. But stacking 8, 12, or 16 microscopic layers of silicon generates an immense amount of heat, and the physical pressure required to bond them together can easily crack or warp the ultra-thin dies. This is exactly where SK Hynix pulled ahead of the pack. The core technical reason for SK Hynix's monopoly comes down to how they glue those stacked chips together. For a long time, the industry standard was a process called TC-NCF (Thermal Compression with Non-Conductive Film). Samsung stuck with this method. It involves placing a thin, solid film between each layer of silicon and applying heavy pressure and heat to melt it and bond the chips. The problem? As the stacks got taller (moving to 12 and 16 layers), that film acted like a thermal blanket. It trapped the heat inside the chip. Furthermore, the intense physical pressure required to bond taller stacks frequently warped the fragile silicon, leading to massive defect rates. SK Hynix, however, collaborated with Japanese materials companies to pioneer a totally different approach called MR-MUF (Mass Reflow Molded Underfill). Instead of solid films and heavy pressure, SK Hynix stacks the chips, momentarily melts all the metallic connections at once, and then injects a specialized liquid epoxy molding compound into the microscopic gaps between the layers before hardening it. This liquid epoxy has roughly twice the thermal conductivity of the traditional films, meaning heat dissipates beautifully. Because it's injected as a liquid, it requires far less physical pressure, completely eliminating the warping issues that plagued Samsung. As a result, SK Hynix was able to achieve manufacturing yields approaching 90%, while competitors struggling with the older film methods were reportedly stuck around 60% to 70%. When $NVDA needs millions of flawless chips, they go to the manufacturer that doesn't throw a third of them in the trash. Ultimately, Samsung and $MU are playing catch-up today because they blinked during the lean years. SK Hynix co-developed the original HBM standards back in 2013 and stubbornly continued funding the R&D even when the technology was losing money. Samsung actually disbanded its dedicated HBM team in 2019 because the market seemed too niche. When the generative AI boom suddenly hit in 2023, SK Hynix was the only manufacturer on the planet with a mature, high-yield, battle-tested packaging process ready to supply Nvidia's voracious appetite.

@kaizen_investorDec 17, 2025 · 9:34 PM

$MU crushed earnings with a double beat 🟢 AI data center demand drove the results, and management raised the bar further, guiding for $12.5 billion in Q1 revenue with gross margins surpassing 50%. $MU up 5% after earnings, can this double beat calm the market tomorrow? https://t.co/Fj8TMsH80t