$SPX

@blackpanthercapApr 21, 2026 · 5:06 PM

→ PORTFOLIO UPDATE & REFLECTIONS: The numbers first. YTD: +40% 1 Year: +157% Max: +129% The $SPX is 'almost' flat on the year. The Nasdaq just snapped a 13-day winning streak. Markets are at all-time highs while Iran peace talks teeter on collapse and oil still moves on every headline. I want to talk about what's actually happening. THE LONG VIEW & WHERE THE US IS REALLY GOING: This is the part most portfolio updates skip. They focus on the next quarter. I want to talk about the next decade, because that's what this portfolio is actually built on. We are not in a normal market cycle. We are in the early innings of a genuine industrial transformation, the kind that only happens two or three times in a century. Morgan Stanley calls it a "fast-moving innovation cycle on a global and historical scale." AI is no longer just a disruption theme. It's a strategic asset, central to economic competitiveness, military capability, and energy demand at a national level. The parallel being drawn is the mid-1990s, where technological breakthroughs allowed for a prolonged period of growth without a recessionary hangover. For the first time in decades, US productivity growth is trending above 2.5%, largely because companies have successfully integrated AI into the workplace. This has created a buffer against inflation. LPL Research is blunter about it: only 1% of companies consider themselves mature AI users. Surveys show over 92% plan to increase AI investment, meaning the productivity gains have barely started diffusing into the broader economy. That's the setup. The market has been pricing the infrastructure phase. The economy is about to enter the productivity phase. And then the application phase after that. I don't believe there a dot-com bubble. The dot-com companies were burning cash on speculation. The companies driving this cycle have real revenue, real backlog, and real constraints. McKinsey estimates cumulative US data center spending alone will reach $5 trillion by 2030. That capital is already committed. Shovels are in the ground. And critically, it is not just America funding this. The UAE has committed $1.4 trillion in US investment and is reaffirming that commitment even amid regional instability, with UAE entities already deploying capital into US-based digital infrastructure at scale. The US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership, formalised in Washington just weeks ago, is designed to secure global AI supply chains with the US at the centre. Advanced technology and AI have become the newest pillar of the UAE-US relationship, built on a foundation of security and economic cooperation. The UAE describes this as a trillion-dollar relationship that drives real economic impact for everyday Americans. This is foreign capital, sovereign wealth, and allied governments choosing the United States as the headquarters of the next industrial era. That's a structural thesis. My thesis, plainly stated: The volatility you're seeing right now, war, politics, tariffs, rate uncertainty, is the turbulence at the beginning of a long flight. The destination doesn't change because there's turbulence. The AI industrial cycle is a 10-year phase shift in how the global economy operates, and the US is its primary beneficiary. The companies that own the physical constraints of that phase shift; power, compute, infrastructure, defense autonomy are where the value compounds. That is what this portfolio is built on. Goldman Sachs has a 7,600 year-end target on the S&P 500. The reasoning is not hype, it's tethered to a 12% EPS growth forecast and an expectation that AI-driven productivity gains are finally hitting corporate bottom lines. They call 2026 the "Execution Phase." I agree. But I'd go further: 2026 is year two of a ten-year execution phase. There are real risks. Elevated valuations, geopolitical escalation, FED policy uncertainty, none of these are trivial. The "Goldilocks" environment requires multiple variables staying in balance simultaneously. It will not be a straight line. There will be drawdowns. There will be moments that test conviction. That's fine. That's where the edge is built. WHERE THE MARKET IS LATE APRIL 2026: The S&P 500 closed Monday at around $7,109. The Nasdaq ended its 13-day winning streak, its longest positive run since 1992. The Russell 2000 hit a new closing all-time high. The market has recovered fully from its Iran conflict lows, roughly 11% off the bottom in under three weeks. Investors are signalling a collective belief that tensions resolve, Hormuz normalises, and the structural bull continues. Analysts at Certuity are right to note that the market wasn't cheap before the conflict. Valuations, earnings potential, and FED policy are going to matter more than geopolitics over the next 6 months. Earnings season is the real test now. Q1 results will reveal which companies are converting AI infrastructure spend into margin expansion and which ones are still in the "spending" column. My view for late April to September: choppier than the last 3 weeks, more volatile than consensus expects, and full of buying opportunities for anything with hard assets and contracted revenue. HOW I'M PLAYING IT - LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO: These are structural positions. Not trades. Each one sits on a specific physical or economic constraint that the AI industrial cycle cannot bypass. I'll hold and DCA. $IREN: Power is the binding constraint of the entire AI buildout. $MSFT Contract. IREN controls 4.6GW of secured power infrastructure. Next earnings: May 13. I'm long and adding on any meaningful pullback. $CIFR: Same thesis, adjacent scale. 3GW secured. The hyperscaler arms race didn't stop. This is infrastructure, not a crypto play. Still accumulating. $NBIS: Nebius is building the AI cloud layer for Europe and emerging markets. Revenue is early. Infrastructure is going in now. This is a multi-year hold. Not touching it. $AMPX: Battery storage is the invisible bottleneck in the autonomous supply chain. AMPX builds the solution. Patient, early, high conviction. $PNG.V: Defense autonomy thesis. Undersized, underanalysed, positioned in programs with multi-decade budget commitment. $RKLB: Rocket Lab is the only orbital launch competitor to SpaceX that has proven execution at scale. Electron is flying. Neutron is coming. Defense contracts are stacking. Still long. $OUST: The sensor layer that makes autonomous systems possible. Defense, agriculture, logistics. The eyes of the machines being built right now. Still accumulating. $ONDS: Raised 2026 guidance 25%. $65M backlog up 180% in 60 days. Trading below analyst target. Defense autonomy is not discretionary anymore. It's a locked-in multi-decade budget line. Still long. $AAOI: Applied Optoelectronics makes the optical components inside every data center rack. Data center capex is crossing $1 trillion this year. The demand curve for $AAOI is not complicated. Adding on weakness. $HIMS: The telehealth distribution layer. The market keeps treating this as a GLP-1 story. It's actually an access story, the infrastructure for healthcare delivery at scale. Patient. Overall strategy: DCA into every position on 5-10% pullbacks. The only exit trigger is a broken thesis, not a lower price. Volatility between now and September is the mechanism that creates the next entry points. SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO: $DARE: My conviction is higher in $SIVE, so I sold DARE with 40% profit. $SIVE: Active swing position. Asymmetric setup with binary catalyst potential. Goal: 1-3x from entry. Taking profit in tranches as it moves. No ego about what it "could" do. Profit is profit. Swing. Take profit. Rotate. The short-term book is a vehicle for compounding faster capital through high-conviction, catalyst-driven setups. Sizing is appropriate, if it goes to zero, the long-term portfolio doesn't notice. The discipline is in the exit, not the entry. The process: identify the catalyst, enter the position, set the target, take profits on the way up. Rotate proceeds into the next setup or into the long-term portfolio on dips. SUMMARY: Markets are volatile. Geopolitics are messy. The near-term is uncertain. None of that changes what I believe about the next decade. AI-related investment increasingly resembles an industrial infrastructure cycle rather than speculative tech spending. Morgan Stanley estimates roughly $2.9 trillion in global data center construction costs through 2028 and expects AI-related investment to account for about 25% of incremental U.S. GDP growth this year. The US is at the centre of this. Foreign sovereign capital is choosing the US as the host nation for the next industrial era. The physical constraints, power, compute, launch infrastructure, defense sensors are where the compounding happens. That's not a 2-year trade. That's a 5-10-year thesis. I'm not managing this portfolio for the next earnings cycle. I'm managing it for the decade. YTD +40%. One year +157%. And the cycle has barely started. Adding on dips. Not selling on headlines. -BP Note: This is not financial advice. I hold positions in all tickers mentioned.

@blackpanthercapApr 19, 2026 · 6:12 PM

HOW I WILL PLAY THE NEXT MONTHS AND WHAT I EXPECT: I want to touch on 5 important things: 1. First, I’m sad to see the lunch of $ASTS fail. I sold a while ago. “$Execution delays is a risks. Sold and took profit recently.” Still saddens me to see. 2. I see a lot of new concerns on US/Iran. Here’s my take and how I will play it: Overall I believe we have see the worst. I could be wrong. But usually when ceasefire and ‘talks’ have been somehow ongoing it’s very rare a full blown war will continue. I expect some volatility short-term. I’ll be DCA’en through if it plays out. Long-term I have NO concerns. US are on their way to a ‘goldilocks’ era. So many investments are being made INTO US. I expect inflation to rise short-term. Fall afterwards towards the goldilock-era for US where AI infrastructure will play out and dominate. Lastly. I see some concerns about ‘oh, but $SPY $SPX $QQQ are all back to ATH and topping. Yes. But MAG7 is not topping. $NVDA $GOOG $AMZN are close to touching Octobers high. But recently. $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA are far from it. Meaning the ‘top’ is not driven by small cap or MAG7. But the middle-layer of $SPYx / SP500. I’m not concerned. But expect more of a rotation to continue into risk-on - when US/Iran clears. 3. A couple of hours ago I released a FREE NEW extensive deep dive on $OUST. You should go read it. 4. I’m considering creating a FREE group-chat here on X. A community. What I expect of the group: This is not a buy/sell signal group. But a group to connect with like-minded. Analyzing the market, sharing ideas, research, insights, learnings and Go deep on finding gems together. There’s limited spots. If you want to join. Comment: “YES.” And just to be clear: I dont have a course or offer no paid services. 5. Based on 2) - I’ll sit tight in my long-term high conviction plays with ease and peace. Add on dips. Pure DCA. Meanwhile I’ll soon open up my short-term account again and begin some short-term swing trades in the timeframe of less than < 6 months. -BP. Please note: this is not financial advice.

@spotgammaApr 17, 2026 · 11:16 AM

Huge surge in non-0DTE $SPX calls over the past few weeks. Call volume just going parabolic https://t.co/HhC6ANpsvd

@jasonl_capitalApr 8, 2026 · 2:56 PM

I just closed 6 cash-secured put trades for an average annualized return of 144%. Average trade length: 16 days. The puts were sold on: $SOFI $IBRX $HOOD $ZETA $BMNR $XSP/ $SPX Here is everything you need to know about cash-secured puts: What it is: You sell a put option on a stock you'd be happy to own. You collect premium upfront. If the stock stays above your strike, you keep the money. If it drops below, you buy shares at a price you already wanted. How I set them up: - Stock on my watchlist that I'd own for years - ~0.20 delta (~80% chance of keeping premium) - 30 DTE to capture the steepest theta decay - Strike at or below a key support level - High IV environment so premiums are worth the risk - Tight bid-ask spreads and strong open interest The rules: - Close at 50% profit and redeploy. Don't hold to expiration. - Never sell into earnings, CPI, or Fed days - Never sell on stocks you don't actually want to own - Never sell when IV is low and premiums are thin Three outcomes every time: 1. Stock stays above your strike You keep the premium. Rinse and repeat. 2. Stock drops but thesis is intact Roll the put down and out. Collect more premium. Wait at a better price. 3. You get assigned You buy a stock you wanted at a discount. Start selling covered calls. That's the wheel. What most people get wrong: - Chasing fat premiums on stocks they haven't researched - Selling into binary events because the premium looks good - No exit plan before they enter - Oversizing because they're excited, not because the math supports it The annualized math is what makes this work. Collecting 3-5% on capital in 10-16 days and redeploying compounds faster than most people realize. This is the core of my system. CSPs and covered calls are the engine. LEAPs are the selective add-on. Long-term equity holdings are the foundation. NFA DYOR

@blackpanthercapApr 4, 2026 · 4:37 PM

@OInvests Completely. It’s mirrors $SPX $SPY and $QQQ apparently 😂

@blackpanthercapApr 3, 2026 · 11:55 AM

☠️ Cross of Death confirmed on $SPX. Last 4 times this printed, the market bled. 20SMA just crossed below the 200SMA on $SPX. Last 4 times this happened: → 2018: Market dropped another 15% → 2020: Market dropped another 20% → 2022: Market dropped another 25% → 2023: Market dropped another 12% Every. Single. Time. RSI is at 46. Not oversold at all. That means more room to fall. The (B) wave bounce is happening right now. Don’t mistake it for a bottom. The real bottom isn’t here yet. -BP Note: This is NOT financial advice.

@blackpanthercapApr 3, 2026 · 8:17 AM

I can only confirm it. I see basically the same. Though my target is lower. $5400 ish if $6100 is broken. But recently found this pattern the RSI haven’t gone straight up the last 7 time $SPX broken under RSI50. We have rebounded, and gone down again. Expect the pattern to play out, to confirm the Elliot wave that has been setup.

@blackpanthercapApr 2, 2026 · 5:17 PM

🚨 I've been warning about this for weeks; a -20% drawdown. This is my last one. I'm not a doom-poster. I don't do fear content. This is just the most COMPLETE picture I can give you, and what I think the current situation means for the market. This is my view. Not financial advice. Not a prediction. Long-term? I'm still bullish. Short-term? I see a legitimate path to a -20% drawdown from here. And I think most retail investors are not aware of the potential on-going RISKS. Here's EVERYTHING you need to know: The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28 and the majority of people have NO IDEA what that actually means for the global economy. Let me walk you through the math nobody's doing. The Strait is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through it flows: → 20M barrels/day of crude and refined products → 20% of ALL global petroleum consumption → 20% of the world's LNG, almost entirely Qatar/UAE This isn't a regional disruption. This is a global circulatory system shutting down. For context: the 1973 oil shock removed 4-6% of global supply from the market. This one REMOVES nearly 20%. Everyone says "Saudi Arabia has pipelines." True. Here's what they don't tell you: > Saudi Petroline: 3-5 mb/d spare capacity > UAE ADCOP: 700k b/d spare capacity > Total bypass capacity: 5.7 mb/d Net shortfall: 14-16.5 MILLION barrels PER DAY. There is NO REROUTING solution at this scale. None. Brent was in the low $70s pre-conflict. After February 28: +$20/bbl within a month. Briefly touched $120. Current brokerage targets for Q2: → Goldman Sachs: $110 → Morgan Stanley: $110 (rationing scenario) → Macquarie: $150+ if the Strait stays shut through April WTI crossed $100 for the first time since July 2022. If Brent stabilizes at $130-$150, the historical demand destruction level, headline CPI peaks near 3.8%. At that point the Fed isn't cutting. It's hiking. This is where it gets REALLY ugly. Goldman Sachs has the numbers. Here's what a 60-day closure does to US equities: $SPX base case: 6,300 → 10% correction $SPX severe case: 5,400 → 17-20% drawdown from RECENT peaks The S&P already crossed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months. That's not noise. That's a technical regime change. And here's the historical precedent that should concern every tech holder: Semis have experienced ~30% drawdowns during major oil price surges historically. Several Magnificent 7 names are already down 10-20% from highs such as $MSFT $TSLA $META Have in mind. I could be wrong. I'm only trying to provide the complete picture. But in my opinion, we're not at the bottom, yet. We're at the technical inflection point. IEA member countries released 400M barrels from emergency reserves to buffer the shock. At a sustainable release rate of 4.4 mb/d, those buffers are projected to be exhausted by mid-April. After that? No more cushion. Secondary price spike hits with NOTHING to absorb it. Rate cuts are fully priced OUT of H1 2026. Morgan Stanley and Goldman both push the first cut to September or December at the earliest. The Fed is frozen between an inflation spike and a deteriorating labor market. That's the WORST possible backdrop for growth equities. This isn't just an oil story. The GCC exports: → 25% of global nitrogen fertilizers → 30% of the world's helium supply → 27% of global ammonia, 22% of phosphates, 45% of sulfur Urea prices up 28% in three weeks. DAP/MAP above $700/MT. Food inflation is coming, but it'll hit harvests in LATE 2026 and 2027. The market is not pricing this yet. This is were inflation will begin to hike again, especially across the Eurozone. Then there's helium. Qatar is a top global producer. Helium recovery is a byproduct of LNG processing. No LNG throughput = helium shortage. Helium is essential for advanced semiconductor lithography. The entire AI buildout, from chip fabs like $NVDA to the infrastructure operators running on them like $IREN and $NBIS, has a Qatar helium dependency nobody mapped. These cascading supply chain failures take 18+ months to resolve even if the Strait reopens tomorrow. EVEN after this ends, the world that comes out the other side is different. The Ras Laffan LNG complex lost 17% of Qatar's production capacity. Repair timeline: 3-5 years. > Higher insurance premiums. > Permanently elevated freight rates. > Inventory buffers rebuilt everywhere. > Semiconductor supply chains rerouted. The Dallas Fed projects a sustained Q2 closure shaves at minimum 0.5 percentage points off US GDP, potentially pushing us toward stagnation. This isn't a shock you trade through and forget. Goldman's 5,400 scenario is live if we don't see resolution before the reserve buffer runs dry. Mid-April is the deadline. Watch it closely. I started investing in August 2024. 20 months in. Up 70% total. YTD in one of the most brutal markets in years? -0.5%. While a lot of portfolios are down 20-30% right now. I'm not saying this to flex. I'm saying this because the whole point of this account is to think ahead of the market, not react to it. Protecting capital in bad environments is just as important as finding the next 10-bagger. If this thread gave you clarity, follow along. This is what I do every week. -BP Please note: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.

@mrmikeinvestingApr 1, 2026 · 2:48 AM

$SPY flew +3% higher today, but most still don’t understand why… Here’s exactly what happened: A gamma squeeze occurred today driven by expiring JPMorgan collar options at the $6,475 strike. Dealer hedging flipped from suppressing to accelerating the rally above this level. Then the breakout was sparked by de-escalation in U.S. & Iran talks with Trump announcing a troop withdrawal. This headline gave the initial bid for $SPX to break the negative gamma ceiling.

@blackpanthercapMar 31, 2026 · 6:50 PM

🚨This one chart should make EVERY bull nervous. Every time SPX RSI dropped below 50 during a major drawdown the market didn’t just bounce straight back. It took time. Look at the chart. 7 instances. Same pattern. Every. Single. Time. Right now RSI is sitting at 42. Elliott Wave is showing a potential -20% to -30% total correction still playing out. Wave (C) hasn’t even begun or finished. I could be wrong. And if I’m, the I’m happy I’m still 80% in the market. But I’m not ignoring what the chart is telling me. Cash is still a position. Patience is a strategy. The opportunities are coming, and they’ll be obvious when they arrive. -BP Please note: This is NOT financial advice. $SPX $IREN $ONDS $RKLB $NBIS

@blackpanthercapMar 30, 2026 · 12:58 PM

Today is a good day for trimming. The 5-wave cycle is locked in. $SPX is rolling over, and the RSI isn't lying. We’ve seen this movie in 2020 and 2022. Wave (B): Dead cat bounce to 6,450–6,600 (The trap) Wave (C): Final flush to the 4,800–5,200 green zone Hope for a deal, but prepare for the -20% leg. I’m officially 20% cash. Stay safe out there. -BP Please note: This is not financial advice. $SPX $QQQ $SPY

@spotgammaSep 4, 2025 · 7:27 PM

i believe that yesterday was a 0DTE $SPX volume record at 69.91% https://t.co/sdohTJfxSD

@spotgammaAug 22, 2025 · 12:48 PM

Soft underbelly in this market if $SPX &lt;6,400 from the new @OJRenick show https://t.co/M8H4C945E5

@spotgammaAug 13, 2025 · 1:30 PM

What is todays 99th %'ile strike? 1) signup for flowpatrol (https://t.co/CfbpFO212s) 2) get a secret SG discount code 3) Get Alpha and see live $SPX positions in TRACE https://t.co/rwSyYlUXdW

@spotgammaAug 12, 2025 · 2:06 PM

its chippy out there right now as benign CPI falls against china chip news and now trump/powell tweets. thus far $SPX fixed strike vol is flat to slightly lower vs yesterday 6,375 is the strike to watch...should that break then we have problems until then ...meh https://t.co/UD6pwdDhTz

@spotgammaJul 30, 2025 · 7:50 PM

$SPX vol is unchanged this is change from last night to now https://t.co/LBM1pyIsLt

@spotgammaJul 29, 2025 · 3:29 PM

huge gamma at 6,360 watching that as a low for $SPX https://t.co/AfE541BHyE

@spotgammaJul 15, 2025 · 3:09 PM

bouncing at the thick positive gamma zone near 6260 $SPX https://t.co/4xQnwSX9mA

@spotgammaJul 4, 2025 · 9:54 AM

$SPX 1DTE went out at 7% Thursday night. https://t.co/pVE6C9Yh3h

@spotgammaJun 24, 2025 · 9:24 PM

interesting $SPX vol change from yesterday, with strikes &gt;6,100 seeing a lot of compression. Maybe the rate of change starts to slow. https://t.co/uaUSvLr62J

@spotgammaJun 16, 2025 · 11:00 AM

$SPX 6,100 Friday? Here is our AM member note, unlocked: https://t.co/jr0ampWmIb

@spotgammaJun 13, 2025 · 1:07 AM

$SPX we see the huge JPM 5,905 as major support and very little in the way of put positioning below that. Our read on the VIX is there ain't much calls, either. So, IMO, we lack fuel for huge downside and traders need to be forced to now add puts to spool up more selling. https://t.co/ILSs8GCCPV

@spotgammaJun 10, 2025 · 2:27 PM

$SPX Nomura's AM note shows that dealers are SHORT upside SPX gamma from 6k-6,500 We too see large dealer short gamma via short calls (orange bars) up through that 6,500 level, which suggests squeeze potential *if* given a catalyst. June OPEX will certainly change this picture. APPS SPOTGAMMA <GO> on BBG to see this or signup for SpotGamma Alpha