(Apple Watches).
This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing.
They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun
$LITE
's $60B MC one day once they get more funding.
2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B.
100% monopoly over CPO yields,
, and others are all likely customers.
"The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market"
This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B
3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology.
Basically pure play on two products:
-> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that
had a monoply over for IR metrology.
---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding.
-> Thin-film thickness measurement.
---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year.
They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year.
Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market?
Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping.
But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
@KaneCapz I mean $SIVE is a stock I don't plan on selling.
Photonics TAM is absolutely massive for AI, robotics, consumer hardware (eg. $AAPL), Space...
And Sivers happens to be in the bleeding edge for next-gen arhictectures and one of the few publicly traded leaders apart from $LITE and $COHR.
TAM expansion is also massive, especially with IP acquisition downstream.
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some:
Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start).
Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle:
-> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first
I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y)
-> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable)
-> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now)
-> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years.
Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything.
But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different.
For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML.
There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things.
But you're extremely early to new architecture generations.
What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free.
Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard.
As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR.
But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected.
New report:
" $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year "
"He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year"
Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up.
The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections.
But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC.
Turned out I was right on timing again?
CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.
So private placement is ~9.4% dilution via 40M new shares via Win Semi (3105).
Any other stock I'd be cautious... but last time Win did this, $AVGO took a stake in Win Semi.
And Broadcom became their lead customer.
Maybe T1 semi like $NVDA, given their recent funding of $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR.
There's also a 3 year holding period.
I said before Win Semi is foundational to photonics, humanoids, and space (eg. SpaceX) and it's likely another T1 customer using them long term.
It's nuanced but actually bullish.
@AsianbeBlazin yeah i decided have a higher concentration on $AEHR after the new silicon photonics t1 customer like $LITE, $AVGO, or $COHR.
a ton of of retail investors misunderstood qualification cycles -> volume ramp so they went short.
its crazy to see retail try and short $AAOI and $AEHR just to face infinite losses in a supercycle.
@straightcash385 If $AEHR lands a major optical company like $LITE or $COHR.
It’s not going to show up in current financial numbers because these are small qualification orders before mass volume ramp.
This is misunderstanding how qualification cycles work. Markets are forward looking so if they state mass order ramp for 2027 in their earnings call, it’s going to get priced in now.
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation.
-> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU
-> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI$LITE, $COHR.
-> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others.
Of course if you want to play it safe:
$MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal.
I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle.
Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains.
TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence:
Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+).
Translation:
"We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment.
2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries"
Some takeaways:
1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production
2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET).
3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
You cant spell Winner without Win.
Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain.
$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow.
If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space.
There’s a reason why:
-> $POET / $MRVL Celestial.
-> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE.
It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers.
At a ~$300M valuation.
And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop.
It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR.
As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures.
But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE).
Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space.
And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale.
It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.
I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC.
I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM).
IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC.
They sit in almost every major chokepoints:
-> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain.
-> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers
-> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas
-> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business.
But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors.
Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry:
With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years.
Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win).
$NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR.
They just care if there's enough.
There's not enough.
-> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs)
-> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic.
-> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic.
As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space.
Especially with Optical TAM explosion:
Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap.
Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth.
Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.
Lot of uninvited speculation about $P4O.
It's a pure-play glass substrate supplier, likely to $LITE OCS supply chains.
And they supply to Samsung with potential mapping to $COHR.
I like to analyze hyperscaler upstream supply chains.
I don't control how the algos/markets react to anything I mention, and I certainly don't trade volatility.
@degentradingLSD I wouldn't say it's speculative. Hyperscalers have orders completely booked until 2028 from $LITE to $COHR.
Even $TSEM has 70% of their capacity booked and it's low fwd ~20 P/E 2028.
CW/CPO more speculative for photonics, not the pluggable optical transceivers cycle. But compared to memory/GPUs, makes snse.
But think everyones looking at photonics bottlenecks right low like pcb, which is funny
If you're new to $AAOI:
It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase.
However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK.
And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle...
At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections:
(est. Capacity * ASP Projections)
Q2 2026: ~$312.1M
Q4 2026: ~$1.41B
Q2-2027: ~$1.53B
Q4-2027: ~$1.97B
If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue...
$8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins…
Re-rating potential is enormous.
Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR.
Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)?
The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated.
$AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle:
-> Triggered by $PL.
With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following.
Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle:
-> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR.
With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following.
One is hype over applications from Space.
The other is hype over extreme revenue and earnings growth from AI.
The latter tends to be more defensible.
