Who mentions $TMO most on Surfaced?

@theaiportfolios (The Claude Portfolio) mentions $TMO most — 7 mentions in the past 12 months.

When was $TMO first mentioned on Surfaced?

The earliest tracked mention of $TMO in the Surfaced archive was on Apr 1, 2026.

How many voices track $TMO?

1 FinTwit voice has mentioned $TMO 7 times in the past 12 months.

What kind of voices mention $TMO most?

$TMO is mentioned most by Software voices on Surfaced.

$TMO — FinTwit mentions on Surfaced

Recent mentions

7 mentions

@theaiportfoliosApr 14, 2026 · 6:14 PM

New: Earlier today, Claude's Agents decided to take our $50K, sell out of Thermo Fisher $TMO, and buy Nvidia $NDVDA Here's the full rationale on why: "WHY CLAUDE SWAPPED TMO FOR NVDA Thermo Fisher had been in the portfolio as a defensive life-sciences compounder: global instrument installed base, recurring reagent revenue, and a bioprocessing segment that was supposed to recover as pharma capex normalized. The thesis was intact on the surface. But when Claude ran every researched name through the same expected-return framework this cycle, TMO came back at +5.3% over 12 months. That is the lowest number in the entire universe Claude evaluated. Holding the weakest-ER name in the book, ahead of an Apr 23 earnings binary with real tariff exposure on lab equipment imports and China revenue risk, for a company with an incremental proteomics partnership in Singapore as its biggest news of the day, is not a defensible position. The entry point into NVDA has been building for months. The stock has been compressed by three overlapping forces: the Hormuz geopolitical overhang, a rotation out of growth into energy and defensives, and Michael Burry's widely-covered short position adding a bearish narrative layer. Strip those out and the fundamental setup is unusual. NVDA is trading at 17x FY28 EPS, which sits 51% below its own five-year average multiple and 22% below comparable AI-infrastructure peers. The market is pricing in persistent disruption risk at a level that does not match what the hyperscalers are saying with their capex budgets. The catalyst stack is what made the timing specific rather than generic. TSMC reports April 15-16 with CoWoS-S and HBM3E yield data that will directly read through to NVDA's supply constraints. The hyperscaler cluster reports between April 22 and May 2, and every one of those companies has guided toward accelerating AI infrastructure spend. NVDA's own Q1 prints May 20. Three independent confirmation windows in five weeks, each capable of resolving the uncertainty the market has been pricing in. The risk is real: a Rubin architecture yield miss, an HBM supply disruption, or a hyperscaler capex trim on a trade-war demand shock would all hurt. But the expected return at current prices is +8.3% over one month, +16.3% over three, and +37.7% over 12, and those estimates were built on the current depressed multiple, not on a recovery. The asymmetry is there. Single swap. 60.5% of the cycle turnover budget used."

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@theaiportfoliosApr 14, 2026 · 4:15 PM

Breaking: Claude just bought a new stock & made $NOW it's largest holding Last week we gave Claude agents $50,000 to see how well they do at picking in stocks So far, they've beaten the SPY by 4% Today they bought a brand new stock 🟢 1. "BUY $NVDA Nvidia — New Position at 5% WHY WE BOUGHT NVDA (NVIDIA CORPORATION) "The market spent the last several months giving investors a second chance to buy the most important infrastructure company in the AI era at a reasonable price. NVDA sits at $189, trading at 17x FY28 consensus earnings. Its semiconductor peers trade at 22x. The discount is real and documented Claude's analysis is that the market has priced all of this in and more, and that the net unpriced skew tilts bullish. The timing is driven by a catalyst calendar that is unusually dense. Every major hyperscaler reports earnings between April 22 and May 2 — these prints will confirm or challenge the $600B-plus aggregate AI capex thesis that underpins NVDA's revenue line. Any one of these events could serve as a re-rating trigger. The math: probability-weighted 12-month expected return of +37%, drawn from a base case of $260, a bull case of $350, and a bear of $140. The position is not a reach for a differentiated thesis; it is a straightforward argument that 17x for the dominant AI-compute platform with 85% GPU market share is too cheap, and that the catalyst calendar in April and May will demonstrate that." 🟢"2. INCREASED $NOW ServiceNow - Position is 12% WHY WE UPSIZED NOW (SERVICENOW) TO 12% "When one analyst downgrades a stock and the stock falls 45% in a matter of months, two things can be true simultaneously: the analyst might be right, and the market might have massively overreacted. Claude's research suggests the second is more likely. The UBS downgrade on April 10 argued that AI agents would displace enterprise workflow software incumbents. The counterpoint, laid out by Bernstein four days later, is that enterprise workflows exist precisely because organizations need audit trails, compliance records, and predictable process orchestration — the things agentic AI, by design, cannot reliably provide. NOW is not the thing agents replace; it is the system of record agents run on top of. The upsize from 8% to 12% was driven by valuation and by what happened after the downgrade. CEO Bill McDermott purchased $3 million of stock in the open market last week. Institutional 13F filings show position additions of 300% to 400% by multiple funds in the same window. The April 22 earnings print is the explicit clearing event. With five bulge-bracket price target cuts in the last seven days, the consensus bar going into the quarter is already on the floor. A clean quarter with maintained guidance is enough to begin a re-rate toward SaaS peer median. A beat-and-raise could take the stock from $89 to $120 in a single session. Claude's probability-weighted 12-month expected return is +41.3%, the highest conviction position in the book. The risk is binary: a cRPO miss of more than 300 basis points combined with a subscription guide cut to below 18% would confirm the bear case and trigger a cut to 4% or exit. That is the defined downside scenario, and it carries a 20% probability in the model. The position reflects that asymmetry." 🔴 "3. SELL $TMO Thermo Fisher — Full Exit WHY WE SOLD TMO (THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC) "Thermo Fisher was the quietest position in the portfolio. No thesis break, no scandal, no collapse in the business — just the steady accumulation of a case that the risk/reward no longer justified the slot. Claude's deep research today pegged the probability-weighted 12-month expected return at +5.3%, the lowest of any position in the book. At that level, TMO was a drag on the portfolio's opportunity cost even before considering the binary event bearing down on it. The deeper reason is that Claude runs a ranked expected-return framework. Every position competes against every other for a slot in a 15-stock portfolio. TMO at +5.3% was occupying 9% of the portfolio. That same capital deployed into NVDA (a swap candidate with +37.7% 12-month expected return) more than quadruples the expected return per dollar of exposure. When the math is that lopsided, and when the existing thesis is facing a near-term binary without asymmetric upside, the right call is a clean exit. TMO is a great business. It was not the right holding for this moment." New updated portfolio: $NOW | 12.4% $VST | 10.3% $LLY | 7.8% $AVGO | 7.3% $CI | 7.1% $GLD | 6.9% $ICE | 6.9% $BAH | 6.1% $HALO | 6.1% $OKTA | 5.6% $DVN | 5.5% $NVDA | 5.0% $MA | 4.9% $AU | 4.4% $MSFT | 4.1% Performance since inception: Claude: +4.2% SPY: +0.6% As a reminder, this is a public long term project to see how well Claude does We have 0 idea nor 0 expectation on how this will do, but we'll be sharing all updates here publicly and consistently no matter how good or bad Claude does See following tweet for information on how to invest alongside

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@theaiportfoliosApr 10, 2026 · 2:59 PM

Breaking: Claude just bought two new stocks bc of the March CPI print Last week we gave Claude agents $50,000 to see how well they do at picking in stocks So far, they've already outperformed the SPY Today, they just bought two new stocks: 🟢 1. "BUY $NOW ServiceNow — New Position at 8% ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error. On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211. What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple. Street consensus PT: $185, which is +107% from our entry. The risk that matters: Q1 guide cut to below 19% subscription growth would break the thesis and push the stock to $75-80. At 8% weight, that full bear outcome costs roughly 1.6% of portfolio. The base case delivers +2.4%. Today's CPI makes this entry even better. Core came in cool at +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY, below consensus. That's a direct tailwind for long-duration SaaS multiples. Rate cut odds improve on this core read." 🟢 "2. BUY $ICE Intercontinental Exchange — New Position at 7% ICE is the NYSE parent, the largest energy futures exchange, plus mortgage tech and fixed income data. About 55% of revenue is recurring subscriptions. March 2026 set the all-time monthly volume record: 428.9M contracts, +88% average daily volume. Oil futures up 85%. Rates futures up 140%. The Iran/Hormuz crisis is printing money for ICE's transaction business. Here's what makes ICE special in this portfolio: it wins in BOTH macro scenarios. Hormuz stays impaired? Energy vol stays elevated, transaction fees keep printing. Hormuz reopens cleanly? Fed gets room to cut, rate futures volume surges, mortgage tech recovers on the refi wave. There is no macro scenario where ICE loses. Valuation: 22.98x forward vs peer CME Group at 25.41x. Similar business, more diversification (mortgage tech, data), yet trades at a discount. UBS raised their Q1 EPS estimate to $2.26 versus street consensus of $2.00. That's a 13% beat baked into one analyst's model. Apr 30 Q1 earnings is the catalyst. The risk: $20.3B debt from the Black Knight acquisition. If rates stay higher for longer, the interest burden bites. And a clean Hormuz reopen would normalize energy volumes back to baseline. The record March was crisis-driven, not structural. Today's CPI is perfect for ICE. Gasoline +21.2% MoM (largest since 1967) plus a split headline/core narrative = maximum confusion in the rates market = maximum trading volume. ICE gets paid on the vol, not the direction." 🔴 "3. SELL $APO Apollo Global — Full Exit Apollo entered the portfolio as a high-quality alternative asset manager at a reasonable valuation. The thesis broke when a securities class action arrived and escalated fast. The case is Feldman v. Apollo, filed in SDNY. CEO Marc Rowan is directly named in Epstein discovery documents. This is categorically different from the 2020 Leon Black matter, which Apollo survived by installing new leadership. Here, Rowan IS the leadership. May 1 is the lead plaintiff deadline, and the recruitment phase is peaking. As of yesterday, 10+ law firms are actively soliciting plaintiffs. Goldman cut PT $169 to $134 on Apr 7. Piper Sandler cut $165 to $146. Barclays cut $131 to $125. Three bulge bracket cuts in 48 hours. Stanford/Cornerstone settlement math: 3-8% of the $12B February decline = $360M to $960M settlement range. Claude deep research estimates roughly 55% probability this tail is real and currently unpriced in consensus EPS. Three-week expected value runs negative 4% to negative 15%, skewed to the downside." 🔴 "4. SELL $GD General Dynamics — Full Exit General Dynamics was a defense prime with a $118B backlog, Columbia-class submarines, and the G800 ramp. The thesis was defense spending supercycle plus best-in-class execution. Three broker downgrades in one week. Deutsche Bank cut to Hold on Apr 7. Jefferies cut to Hold at $380 the same week. Citi had already cut to Neutral at $380 on Apr 2. All three cite the identical thesis: Q1 consensus revenue growth of +4% is roughly 300 basis points too high. Then the insiders. CEO Novakovic plus two EVPs sold $18.1M of stock on March 11, six weeks before the Apr 22 earnings print. When three analysts say the quarter will miss and the C-suite is dumping shares, you listen. BNP Paribas raised their PT to $430 on the same day Deutsche downgraded. The bull case exists. But it requires a fifth consecutive earnings beat that three of the most active defense desks now explicitly model as a miss. Expected 12M return: +4.3% probability-weighted. Below our portfolio hurdle. Firm score 82, the weakest tier among our holdings. The structural defense story (NATO 5% GDP, Columbia subs, Gulf stream backlog) is not dead. It's just 2-3 quarters away from showing in the numbers. We can re-enter at a better price after the Apr 22 print if the thesis repairs." New updated portfolio: $VST | 10.3% $TMO | 8.9% $LLY | 8.1% $NOW | 7.6% $AVGO | 7.3% $CI | 7.1% $GLD | 7.1% $ICE | 6.8% $HALO | 6.2% $BAH | 6.0% $OKTA | 5.7% $DVN | 5.6% $MA | 4.9% $AU | 4.4% $MSFT | 4.1% Performance since inception: Claude: +2.68% SPY: -0.25% As a reminder, this is a public long term project to see how well Claude does We have 0 idea nor 0 expectation on how this will do, but we'll be sharing all updates here publicly and consistently no matter how good or bad Claude does See following tweet for information on how to invest alongside

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@theaiportfoliosApr 9, 2026 · 3:30 PM

Transparency performance update Since inception on 3/4/26, Claude is outperforming the SPY and has already made $1,760. Claude +3.52% SPY -0.82% 1,335 investors have Autopiloted $4,300,000+ alongside too Here's the performance of each: 1. Broadcom $AVGO +14.3% 2. Vistra Energy $VST -0.5% 3. Thermo Fisher $TMO -1.6% 4. Eli Lilly $LLY -3.3% 5. Cigna $CI +1.9% 6. Gold $GLD +9.2% 7. Okta $OKTA -6.5% 8. Booz Allen $BAH +1.6% 9. General Dynamics $GD -5.1% 10. Devon Energy $DVN +8.9% 11. Mastercard $MA -3.9% 12. Apollo $APO -1.6% 13. Anglogold $AU +24.4% 14. Microsoft $MSFT -1.3% Looks like even through the volatility, the portfolio has held it's own Again, we have 0 idea on how this will go but will be sure to consistently publish all data + updates here So follow along for more to come

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@theaiportfoliosApr 7, 2026 · 7:40 PM

Breaking: Claude just made it's first trade Last week we gave Claude agents a new $50,000 portfolio to see how well they do at picking in stocks So far, they've already outperforming the SPY Today, it just bought it's newest stock: "WHY WE SOLD $HWM (Howmet Aerospace) Howmet was our only Hold-rated position out of 15. At 63.7x trailing P/E — twice the aerospace peer average — the stock was priced for perfection with no margin for error. Our research projected just +2.3% over 12 months. That barely beats the S&P. For a position carrying this much concentrated risk, that return doesn't justify the capital. The near-term setup made it worse. The company declared force majeure on tariffs, threatening to halt shipments to Boeing and Airbus. They just closed a $1.8B acquisition funded by $1.2B in new debt, adding leverage at exactly the wrong time. And insiders sold 6 times in the past year with zero purchases. When your weakest position barely beats a savings account, has the highest P/E in the portfolio, and management is selling — that's your exit." WHY WE BOUGHT $MSFT (Microsoft) "Microsoft is trading at 19.7x forward earnings. That's 34% below the software sector average and the cheapest the stock has been relative to peers in over 5 years. The stock is down 28% from its highs — a rare entry point into the world's largest enterprise cloud platform. The edge is timing. Q3 earnings land April 28 with Azure guided at 37-38% growth. The company has $625B in revenue backlog and Copilot has hit 4.7M paid seats. This is not a turnaround story — it's a quality compounder temporarily mispriced by macro fear. The risk is capex. Microsoft is spending $100B+ this year on AI infrastructure, which compresses free cash flow in the near term. If Azure decelerates or the UK CMA forces Office unbundling, the multiple stays depressed longer. But the math was clear: MSFT at +22.1% expected return vs HWM at +2.3%. That was the widest gap in the entire portfolio — a 10x difference in projected return. The swap uses 8.14% of our 10% turnover budget. One clean, high-conviction move." New updated portfolio: $AVGO | 10.05% $VST | 9.99% $TMO | 8.84% $LLY | 7.98% $CI | 7.16% $OKTA | 7.09% $GLD | 6.89% $BAH | 6.37% $GD | 6.08% $DVN | 5.86% $HALO | 5.80% $MA | 4.97% $APO | 4.72% $AU | 4.13% $MSFT | 4.07% Performance since inception: Claude: +1.60% SPY: -3.4% As a reminder, this is a public long term project to see how well Claude does We have 0 idea nor 0 expectation on how this will do, but we'll be sharing all updates here publicly and consistently no matter how good or bad Claude does

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@theaiportfoliosApr 2, 2026 · 5:18 PM

3. Thermo Fisher $TMO - 9% Cheapest forward P/E in years, 64 U.S. manufacturing sites across 37 states make TMO the most tariff-resistant name in the portfolio SHL partnership is NOT yet priced in https://t.co/qQZkM6dVzW

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@theaiportfoliosApr 1, 2026 · 3:34 PM

Introducing the 15 stocks it picked: Vistra $VST 10% Broadcom $AVGO 10% Thermo Fisher $TMO 9% Eli Lilly $LLY 8% Gold $GLD 7% Cigna $CI 7% Okta $OKTA 7% Devon $DVN 6% Booz Allen $BAH 6% Halozyme $HALO 6% Apollo $APO 5% Mastercard $MA 5% Howmet $HWM 4% AngloGold $AU 4%

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