Who mentions $HYG most on Surfaced?

@alphaticaio (Alphatica) mentions $HYG most — 7 mentions in the past 12 months.

When was $HYG first mentioned on Surfaced?

The earliest tracked mention of $HYG in the Surfaced archive was on Jan 11, 2026.

How many voices track $HYG?

4 FinTwit voices have mentioned $HYG 13 times in the past 12 months.

What kind of voices mention $HYG most?

$HYG is mentioned most by Long Research voices on Surfaced.

$HYG — FinTwit mentions on Surfaced

Recent mentions

13 mentions

@alphaticaioMay 24, 2026 · 10:05 PM

Our credit stress detector tracks the IEI/HYG ratio (Treasuries vs. junk bonds) and measures what SPY and QQQ do after the spread hits extreme levels. 2,512 trading days. 267 two-sigma events. 10 years of data. Here's what we found: When credit stress spikes to +2σ (flight to safety), equities rally hard over the next 45 days: SPY: +4.81% avg return, 73.4% win rate QQQ: +7.13% avg return, 80.4% win rate IWM: +4.51% avg return, 69.6% win rate The March 2026 Iran shock hit +2.69σ on March 6th. 45 days later: SPY +9.95% QQQ +18.93% IWM +13.73% The signal caught the exact bottom. But here's where it gets interesting. When the ratio flips to the other extreme (z ≤ -2σ, peak risk-on), small caps diverge: $SPY: +0.89% avg, 63.4% win rate $QQQ: +1.66% avg, 63.4% win rate $IWM : -0.01% avg, 37.8% win rate 82 events over 10 years. Large cap absorbs the flow at risk-on extremes. Small caps get left behind every time. Current reading: -1.59σ. Risk-on, but not extreme. The data says stay long SPY and QQQ. Underweight IWM until credit stress returns. When does the next credit stress event flip this signal? That's what we're watching. $IEI $HYG

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@yasutaketinMay 12, 2026 · 12:11 AM

$HYG ハイイールド社債ETF 動き悪い https://t.co/eFvLJMmNq7

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@alphaticaioApr 14, 2026 · 4:33 PM

CTA Positioning Update: April 14 Strongest raw regime score we've measured: +0.260 (LONG). SPY $693. Confidence: 76%. The trend data is the most bullish it's been in this entire tracking series. Seven of nine assets are in uptrends. SPY and QQQ both at +0.600. SPY above all five DMAs by widening margins. HYG flipped bullish for the first time credit is no longer a drag. But the volatility overlay is flashing amber on two fronts, and that's why confidence is 76%, not 95%. First: SKEW spiked to 157 from 144 in two sessions. Options traders are aggressively buying tail protection into the rally. SKEW at 157 while the regime reads LONG is a divergence, the options market is hedging something the trend data isn't pricing. Second: implied correlation fell to 15.4 (3M) and 12.4 (1M), both series lows. The market is deeply dispersed. Stocks are moving independently, not as a macro bloc. CTA trend signals are noisier in this environment because the multi-asset composite is less representative of systematic positioning. What's confirming: -VIX at 19.1, down 21% in 5 days -VIX term structure in contango (1.12), CTAs getting paid to hold -VVIX at 103, 20-day low, gamma environment is the calmest in weeks The dollar story is accelerating. UUP at -0.435 is the most bearish individual score outside TLT. FXE (euro) hit STRONG UPTREND at +0.571. Weak dollar + strong gold + strong commodities + equities rallying = risk-on, inflation-hedge regime. The DBMF CTA replication ETF has been running -0.80 to -0.94 correlation to SPY for 12 consecutive days. Either this is the longest pre-covering coil we've tracked, or DBMF's replication methodology has a structural lag. We're monitoring for the correlation to snap back toward zero — that would signal actual covering has begun. The 15-day scorecard: Mar 30: -0.021 (NEUTRAL) · SPY $633 Apr 3: +0.123 (NEUTRAL) · SPY $657 Apr 9: +0.223 (LONG) · SPY $679 Apr 14: +0.260 (LONG) · SPY $693 ← highest raw score What to watch: 1. SKEW below 145 = tail hedging fading, confidence rises 2. Implied correlation rising = macro-driven, cleaner signals 3. TLT stabilizing = last drag removed, regime approaches MAX LONG 4. DBMF correlation toward zero = CTA covering confirmed Not Investment Advice $SPY $QQQ $TLT $HYG $GLD $USO $DBC $UUP $FXE

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@alphaticaioApr 9, 2026 · 4:52 PM

The CTA Positioning just flipped to LONG for the first time since March 10. Nine days ago (Mar 30), the regime read -0.021 with SPY at $633. We identified SPY $642 as the first CTA covering trigger. It reclaimed on Day 2. We then tracked the 20d DMA falling toward price. It converged on Day 5. SPY has now reclaimed all five moving averages — 20d, 60d, 125d, 250d, and 500d. Today's regime: +0.223 (LONG) Bullish: — VIX term structure in contango (VIX3M/VIX = 1.08), CTAs comfortable holding positions — VVIX at 111 (normal) full confidence in trend signals, no damping needed — VIX dropped 16.7% over 5 days Amber flags: — Implied correlation at 19.1 and falling — the market is dispersed. CTA signals are noisier when stocks aren't moving together as a bloc. — SKEW at 150.4: options market pricing tail risk despite the equity rally. Someone is hedging hard. — DBMF 5-day correlation to SPY at -0.87 — CTAs are STILL short equities. Covering hasn't started. The regime says LONG but the CTA replication ETF says they haven't turned yet. 8 of 10 tracked assets are in uptrends: DBC +0.791, USO +0.719, IWM +0.617, GLD +0.568, SPY +0.474, QQQ +0.451, FXE +0.425, HYG +0.125 Only two are bearish: TLT -0.295 (bonds still the primary drag, 20% weight) UUP -0.261 (dollar weakening) The dollar weakening and bonds selling off while equities, commodities, and gold all rally, that's a classic risk-on, inflation-hedge regime. CTAs are positioned for it in commodities and gold, but still short equities and bonds. What to watch: — DBMF correlation snapping back toward zero = CTA covering has started — SKEW falling below 140 = tail hedging fading, higher confidence — Implied correlation rising = macro-driven trends returning, cleaner signals Not Investment Advice $SPY $QQQ $TLT $HYG $GLD $USO $DBC $UUP $IWM $FXE

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@alphaticaioApr 1, 2026 · 6:13 PM

Three days ago we said SPY $642 was the CTA covering trigger. Here's what happened. Day 1 (Mar 30): Regime -0.021, SPY $633. We identified the 250-day moving average at $642 as the first level where systematic trend followers begin covering equity shorts. It was 1.4% away. Day 2 (Mar 31): $34bn pension month-end rebalance (8th largest since Y2K per Goldman). SPY pushed through $642. Regime jumped to +0.096. The 250d DMA was reclaimed. Day 3 (Apr 1): Regime +0.107, SPY $658. Now 0.4% below the 20-day DMA at $660. The 3-day asset score changes tell the story: SPY: -0.235: +0.209 (DOWNTREND → UPTREND) QQQ: -0.267: +0.194 (DOWNTREND → UPTREND) IWM: +0.006: +0.360 (small caps leading) HYG: -0.363: -0.141 (credit stabilizing) GLD: +0.354: +0.558 (gold strengthening into the equity rally) TLT: -0.350: -0.374 (bonds SELLING OFF — classic risk-on rotation) The DBMF CTA ETF has a -0.47 correlation to SPY over 5 days. That confirms CTAs were short equities and are NOW getting squeezed. Bonds are the biggest single drag on the regime. TLT carries 20% weight and is the largest negative contributor at -0.075. TLT and HYG together account for 40% of the proxy because of inverse-vol weighting. Until bonds stabilize, the regime stays pinned in NEUTRAL even as equities recover. SPY still below 3 of 5 moving averages. The secular trend horizons (250d and 500d) are both reclaimed, but the fast and mid-term signals remain broken. Next trigger levels: SPY $660 (20d DMA): 0.4% away, fast trend reclaim SPY $678-680 (60d/125d cluster): 3.1-3.3% away, full CTA buying wave Not Investment Advice $SPY $QQQ $TLT $HYG $GLD $USO $DBC $UUP $IWM $FXE @alphaticaio

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@alphaticaioMar 31, 2026 · 6:34 PM

Yesterday we said SPY $642 was the CTA covering trigger. Today pension rebalancing pushed it through. Our CTA positioning proxy: Yesterday: -0.021 (17.5th percentile) Today: +0.096 What moved: — SPY reclaimed the 250-day moving average — HYG credit stress eased (20% of total weight) — Small caps led the bounce (IWM +0.232) — DBMF 5-day correlation hit -0.49 — confirms CTAs were short equities and are getting squeezed What hasn't: — TLT still the largest drag (-0.293, 20% weight) — SPY still below 20d, 60d, and 125d DMAs — Fast and mid-term equity trends remain broken The secular trend (500d DMA at $603) was never in danger. It's the shorter horizons that need to heal. Next CTA levels: $SPY $662 — 20d DMA reclaim $SPY $678-680 — 60d/125d cluster, full buying wave $SPY $QQQ $TLT $HYG $GLD $USO $DBC $UUP

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@alphaticaioMar 10, 2026 · 12:00 PM

The credit market just flashed a buy signal that's worked 77% of the time over the last decade. HYG/LQD spread hit −2.20σ on Feb 27 and −2.10σ on Mar 3. High yield is underperforming investment grade at levels we've only seen during genuine stress events. Historically when this spread hits −2σ, SPY returns +1.96% over 20 days. 179 events. 77.1% win rate. The signal says buy. The flow data says institutions aren't buying. We've scanned every major sector this week: XLK (Tech): 0% institutional buy rate XLE (Energy): 7% XLF (Financials): 25% NVDA: 20% — being liquidated at $6.8B in 10 days AMAT: 5% distribution Meanwhile defensives are surging: XLU (Utilities): 92% XLB (Materials): 100% XLC (Comms): 100% The credit market is screaming "peak fear." The equity flow data is screaming "institutions are still repositioning, not buying the dip." Both can't be right — or can they? The Jan 20 reading tells the story. Five weeks ago, this same spread was at +2.20σ — HYG overextended, peak risk-on. SPY returned +1.76% over 10 days from there. Then it collapsed 4.5σ in five weeks. That speed of deterioration isn't normal rotation. It's a regime change in credit risk perception. Every prior −2σ event in our dataset happened during typical selloffs — tariffs, rate fears, positioning squeezes. This one is happening during active military operations against a country that controls the Strait of Hormuz. The historical base rate says buy. But the institutional flow across equities, sectors, and credit all say the same thing: smart money is still in risk-off mode. When the flow data and the credit signal align, that's when you buy. Right now, they're diverging. We're watching for the turn. $SPY $QQQ $VIX $HYG

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@convertbondFeb 28, 2026 · 5:32 PM

3. Leveraged loans $BKLN vs $HYG largest underperformance in a long time, loans / CLOs have more software risk than high yield. Weakness in the CLO equity tranche is also troubling. 4. High Yield (junk bonds) vs US Equities this week, noticeable - most significant underperformance, especially mid-week, hearing real downside hedges were put on HY CDX 5. SOFR futures rate of change acceleration in Feb is eye-opening, rate cuts coming, but the speed at which players are betting on more cuts is the eye opener.

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@convertbondFeb 28, 2026 · 11:48 AM

@JackFarley96 Things that stand out in 2026 Staples $XLP > S&P 500 by close to 15% in Jan - Feb, has never happened before to start a year, in 2000 outperformance was 35%, 2008 21%. Financials $BAC < $SPY by 9% in Jan - Feb, extremely rare. KKR, BX off 30% ytd. Leveraged loans $BKLN vs $HYG largest underperformance in a long time, loans / CLOs have more software risk than hy. CLO equity tranche weakness is also troubling. HY (junk) vs US Equities this week, noticeable - most significant underperformance, especially mid-week, hearing real downside hedges were put on HY CDX SOFR futures rate of change acceleration in Feb is eye opening, rate cuts coming, but the speed at which players are betting on more cuts is the eye opener.

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@convertbondFeb 28, 2026 · 11:45 AM

@TheStalwart Things that stand out in 2026 Staples $XLP > S&P 500 by close to 15% in Jan - Feb, has never happened before to start a year, in 2000 outperformance was 35%, 2008 21%. Financials $BAC < $SPY by 9% in Jan - Feb, extremely rare. KKR, BX off 30% ytd. Leveraged loans $BKLN vs $HYG largest underperformance in a long time, loans / CLOs have more software risk than hy. CLO equity tranche weakness is also troubling. HY (junk) vs US Equities this week, noticeable - most significant underperformance, especially mid-week, hearing real downside hedges were put on HY CDX SOFR futures rate of change acceleration in Feb is eye opening, rate cuts coming, but the speed at which players are betting on more cuts is the eye opener.

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@convertbondFeb 28, 2026 · 11:40 AM

@lisaabramowicz1 Things that stand out in 2026 Staples $XLP > S&P 500 by close to 15% in Jan - Feb, has never happened before to start a year, in 2000 outperformance was 35%, 2008 21%. Financials $BAC < $SPY by 9% in Jan - Feb, extremely rare. KKR, BX off 30% ytd. Leveraged loans $BKLN vs $HYG largest underperformance in a long time, loans / CLOs have more software risk than hy. CLO equity tranche weakness is also troubling. HY (junk) vs US Equities this week, noticeable - most significant underperformance, especially mid-week, hearing real downside hedges were put on HY CDX SOFR futures rate of change acceleration in Feb is eye opening, rate cuts coming, but the speed at which players are betting on more cuts is the eye opener.

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@alphaticaioFeb 21, 2026 · 12:11 AM

@KobeissiLetter Our data confirms this at the sector level. We classified 108M trades across all 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs over the last 90 days. The result: Institutional net: +$821M Retail net: +$46.5B That's a $45.7B divergence. Only 2 of 11 sectors have institutional buying in the last 10 days: $XLK (Tech) — 68% buy rate $XLP (Staples) — 68% buy rate The other 9? Distribution. $XLV (Healthcare) — 22% inst buy rate $XLY (Discretionary) — 20% inst buy rate $XLRE (Real Estate) — 48% inst buy rate 5 of 11 sectors are in STRONG HANDOFF — institutions selling directly into retail absorption. It's not just equities either. We ran the same analysis on credit: $HYG (Junk Bonds): -$8.1B institutional over 90D $LQD (Investment Grade): flipping back to buying $SRLN (Senior Loans): +$413M institutional They're de-risking credit AND equities simultaneously while barbelling into tech + staples.

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@murphychartsJan 11, 2026 · 2:02 PM

Junk bonds are outperforming US Treasuries - the ratio printed another all-time high this week. $JNK $IEF $HYG https://t.co/uyJaKgb5Xz

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