Year to Date post $NVDA earnings:
477.27%.
Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months:
From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently.
or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung.
Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe.
Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK.
I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching.
But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year.
Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains.
I typically shift from:
> Research Posts (Initial thesis post)
> Map that into actual ideas + trades
> Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing)
> celebrate when things go up.
cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum.
Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading).
And I think people might have found this style refreshing.
I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends:
1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains
- Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO
- Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura
- Power Grid like $XLU
- Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR
2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea.
Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan.
ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off.
- Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months
- For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying
- For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February
While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America.
So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure.
The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation.
As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling!
I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right.
I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day.
But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
