→ Most mature public quantum roadmap. 1000+ qubit processors live. Fault-tolerant systems targeted ~2029. Every enterprise quantum conversation starts here.
→ Willow chip demonstrated a landmark quantum error correction milestone. Google doesn’t lose science races. This is a long-term compounder with quantum upside baked in.
$MSFT
→ Topological qubit breakthrough. Azure Quantum as the monetization layer. Full-stack quantum integrator play for the enterprise cloud era.
→ Booz Allen Hamilton. Deep in U.S. government quantum programs. Every federal quantum contract flows through firms like this. The picks-and-shovels of government quantum.
SEMICONDUCTOR & INFRASTRUCTURE
FOCI (3363) is one of the most undervalued CPO players in the entire market right now at ~$3B.
Their BOM is massive relative to MC and they're expected to capture a dominant market share for $NVDA / $TSM.
You only start to see this show up 2027 / 2028, even though we're entering H2 2026 now (which is what I mean by frontrunning CPO supercycle).
@Leon8995385220 $SIVE likely locked up allocation agreements with Win Semi to scale. And works with $GFS.
Which is why I'm long on them both, easy to scale as fabless, kinda like $NVDA + $TSM.
Prices for $TSM's advanced nodes in 2026 are expected to rise by 3% to 10%, though the exact increase will depend on the specific process node and individual customer agreements.
Industry sources reported yesterday that $TSM has begun communicating with its customers since September regarding a planned price increase for advanced process nodes in 2026, aiming to reflect rising production costs. However, the rate of increase will vary depending on each customer’s procurement level and partnership status.
According to earlier forecasts from research institutions and institutional investors, prices for advanced process nodes in 2026 are expected to rise by 3% to 10%. While the degree of increase will differ across specific nodes, all are projected to show stronger growth compared with this year—marking the fourth consecutive year of price hikes by $TSM.
This episode from @stratechery featured two "Ben" is very interesting, particularly the discussion on $INTC and $TSM. I found the analogy of insurance and $INTC quite eye-opening.
"At the end of the day, Intel existing is the single most important piece of insurance for anApple, for an AMD, for an Nvidia, for a Qualcomm for basically every single US fabless chipcompany, and the reason why insurance is the right analogy is because in any normal stateof affairs, they don’t need Intel. TSMC meets their needs, they meet their needs better,and that’s why they’re not signing deals with Intel. But the point of insurance is you don’tneed it until you need it and if they don’t want to go out of business, if something happensto TSMC, then they need to buy insurance."
According to the Wall Street Journal, $INTC has explored potential investment or manufacturing partnerships not only with $AAPL but also with $TSM. https://t.co/7NVKsVj90T
