I like how $HPS.A is just a vertical line up 2-3% increase every day since my thesis post. Just 20 CAD away before it hits triple digit returns. https://t.co/CHqWQKzH5E
Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point. But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
I guess, post earnings when $ARM touched $268... $ARM is now #18 on the individual stock list that I went long on that hit 100%-1000%+ YTD? I've lost count TBH. Some others like $LPK and $SIMO and $HPS.A are getting really close now. But feels like I'm one of the few ones out there on X with actual receipts of all the returns + original thesis post.
Just putting it out there: A lot of these names from $PLPC to $AMSC are doing decently well from two weeks ago. $HPS.A (my transformers thesis) earnings also came out today and it’s very solid: $264M CAD vs $236.3M CAD (strong beat) and backlog increased 94.6% Y/Y which is the leading indicator of a demand for these names. They’re all critical to American infrastructure, not exactly parabolic growth names… but great compounders.
The fact that a large correction looks like a little blip in the overall charts. Is pretty telling for how “Serenity Stocks” performs over time? That aside, I’m starting to think everyone’s expectations are too high. Now if $SOI or $HPS.A are not up 10% a day people are sad. Before 15% return a year was considered very good. Corrections like these are normal if you zoom out, even if they’re self-inflicted by US media. Usually if something is a core component in a multi year optical supercycle… Or are backlogged by multiple years for transformers/switchgear. It’s a lot easier to sleep at night.
@wdh37 $SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers $LPK for glass core substrates Shunsin for optical test/packaging. Many others I like though like $HPS.A or $SOI.
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
If you listened to Optimus Prime… You’d be up 47% in just 3 weeks with $HPS.A. Did you listen to Optimus anon? https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
@PeterSikachev It's like giving grants to Korea Zinc to build refineries in the US or $TSM to build foundries in the US. $HPS.A is largest dry transformers -> switchgear in north america, and they have critical production facilities in US too like Wisconsin/California. I think it's basically "Anything but China"
@mi20483980476 Yes I like $HPS.A and did an individual thesis post on them awhile back for transformers. It's up 49.4% so far? These names are slower compounders compared to pure play AI ones... But critical to national security.
Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago. To expand on domestic infra. Implicit beneficiaries were: Transmission & Advanced Conductors: $AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics $PLPC - advanced conductors $ATKR - transmission components $VMI - grid components Power Electronics $AEIS - power control electronics $VICR - power delivery Capacitor Banks $VSH - power capacitors and capacitor banks Substations & High-Voltage Circuit Breakers $POWL - substations/switchgear $AZZ - substations Transformers $HPS.A - My favorite for transformers $SPXC - power transformers Electrical Core Steel $CLF - Only producer of electrical steel in America? This included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel TLDR: The executive action declared a national energy emergency regarding the domestic supply chain for grid infrastructure. Authorized federal funding, purchase commitments, and expedited actions to rapidly expand the manufacturing. Lot of beneficiaries, I made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A; dont have any of the others. There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like " DoE Awards ___ to $POWL " off this act is my guess.
LOL what did i say about transformer bottlenecks and upstream supply chains like $HPS.A ??? New Presidential Action Today: "The Nation’s capacity to design, produce, and deploy large-scale grid infrastructure, including TRANSFORMERS ... is dangerously limited" "National emergency under Executive Order 14156 to expand the domestic capability to develop, manufacture, and deploy grid infrastructure" It's now a US National Emergency to develop supply chains and pour money into the sector for expansion.
Boring names like $HPS.A end up cooking hardest? I said this looked like a steady compounder back at $186 and it’s already at $241 in 2 weeks. I think transformers/switchgear bottlenecks are underappreciated in markets. https://t.co/XkI6kHdExh
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
@larmatrade @aiizisw77940 yeah $HPS.A typo, i talk a lot on X mb
$HPS.A is up 21% since my thesis 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately, not everything can go up 100% every 2 weeks like $AXTI? If the transformers bottleneck is that extreme for multiple years… Sometimes it’s better to wait for markets to price that in. $AEHR or $AAOI triple digit rallies in few week timeframes probably set unrealistic expectations… Even 10% return yearly is usually good in markets? This has been 21% so far and I have comments asking if this is still good, but I’m hoping it’s another triple digit return in due time.
@cryptochelss Nothings changed? It’s up like 21% in 2 weeks… Just gotta be patient sometimes, I expect $HPS.A to double down the road eventually.
@richsmith1985 It's been a solid... 1 week for $HPS.A, please don't ask me if I'm still bullish if nothings changed. It's still up 18.4% or so, things don't move up in a straight line. But that aside, probably better to develop your own conviction on it, so you can decide that answer for yourself.
They’re still there. It’s just hard to say anything…. When all my recent thesis posts from $HPS.A, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, $NBIS, Win, Shunsin, $AEHR, $TSEM, $SOI, and many many others I call out. Just hard outperforms the market. Year to date of +1,116.29% isn’t too bad, right chat?
@Leoon471 I used to watch Transformers and Megan Fox when I was little. So it’s the culmination of diverse life experiences that led me to have more conviction in transformers longs like $HPS.A
Has Bumblebee or Optimus Prime ever let you down? $HPS.A already up ~30%+ since my transformers thesis a week ago. I share all this for free to help retail outperform and frontrun institutions. Everything keeps going up… https://t.co/1JL7xXAVRB
Unfortunately, not all my names go up triple digits in a week. $HPS.A is only up ~17% so far. Hammond was my pick for the transformers/switchgear DC bottleneck since it had a lower MC but high dry transformer market share. $POWL was another good switchgear long that I came across often; I ended up passing but just throwing that out there. Transformers/Switchgear are probably under-appreciated as a bottleneck but many types are sold out for the next 2-5 years. Because of this, they’re causing widespread DC delays and should be a good structural long from backlog visibility + extreme demand.
@TD_btc24 Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
The nice thing about multi-year bottlenecks from: $HPS.A to $SNDK to $LITE Is that you can sleep a easier despite market volatility like today. Knowing demand will be extreme even 1 year... Even if Trump wants to nuke Bikini Bottom and other companies might be more impacted: -> One has a huge market share over Transformers -> One has huge market share over NAND -> One has huge market share over EML/OCS. And the one thing in common is that they're all likely backlogged on orders into 2028. Signaling near-guaranteed fundamental revenue and likely margin expansion into the next year. It's H1 2026 now.
