Who mentions $DBC most on Surfaced?

@alphaticaio (Alphatica) mentions $DBC most — 4 mentions in the past 12 months.

When was $DBC first mentioned on Surfaced?

The earliest tracked mention of $DBC in the Surfaced archive was on Dec 22, 2025.

How many voices track $DBC?

2 FinTwit voices have mentioned $DBC 5 times in the past 12 months.

What kind of voices mention $DBC most?

$DBC is mentioned most by Long Research voices on Surfaced.

$DBC — FinTwit mentions on Surfaced

Recent mentions

5 mentions

@alphaticaioApr 14, 2026 · 4:33 PM

CTA Positioning Update: April 14 Strongest raw regime score we've measured: +0.260 (LONG). SPY $693. Confidence: 76%. The trend data is the most bullish it's been in this entire tracking series. Seven of nine assets are in uptrends. SPY and QQQ both at +0.600. SPY above all five DMAs by widening margins. HYG flipped bullish for the first time credit is no longer a drag. But the volatility overlay is flashing amber on two fronts, and that's why confidence is 76%, not 95%. First: SKEW spiked to 157 from 144 in two sessions. Options traders are aggressively buying tail protection into the rally. SKEW at 157 while the regime reads LONG is a divergence, the options market is hedging something the trend data isn't pricing. Second: implied correlation fell to 15.4 (3M) and 12.4 (1M), both series lows. The market is deeply dispersed. Stocks are moving independently, not as a macro bloc. CTA trend signals are noisier in this environment because the multi-asset composite is less representative of systematic positioning. What's confirming: -VIX at 19.1, down 21% in 5 days -VIX term structure in contango (1.12), CTAs getting paid to hold -VVIX at 103, 20-day low, gamma environment is the calmest in weeks The dollar story is accelerating. UUP at -0.435 is the most bearish individual score outside TLT. FXE (euro) hit STRONG UPTREND at +0.571. Weak dollar + strong gold + strong commodities + equities rallying = risk-on, inflation-hedge regime. The DBMF CTA replication ETF has been running -0.80 to -0.94 correlation to SPY for 12 consecutive days. Either this is the longest pre-covering coil we've tracked, or DBMF's replication methodology has a structural lag. We're monitoring for the correlation to snap back toward zero — that would signal actual covering has begun. The 15-day scorecard: Mar 30: -0.021 (NEUTRAL) · SPY $633 Apr 3: +0.123 (NEUTRAL) · SPY $657 Apr 9: +0.223 (LONG) · SPY $679 Apr 14: +0.260 (LONG) · SPY $693 ← highest raw score What to watch: 1. SKEW below 145 = tail hedging fading, confidence rises 2. Implied correlation rising = macro-driven, cleaner signals 3. TLT stabilizing = last drag removed, regime approaches MAX LONG 4. DBMF correlation toward zero = CTA covering confirmed Not Investment Advice $SPY $QQQ $TLT $HYG $GLD $USO $DBC $UUP $FXE

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@alphaticaioApr 9, 2026 · 4:52 PM

The CTA Positioning just flipped to LONG for the first time since March 10. Nine days ago (Mar 30), the regime read -0.021 with SPY at $633. We identified SPY $642 as the first CTA covering trigger. It reclaimed on Day 2. We then tracked the 20d DMA falling toward price. It converged on Day 5. SPY has now reclaimed all five moving averages — 20d, 60d, 125d, 250d, and 500d. Today's regime: +0.223 (LONG) Bullish: — VIX term structure in contango (VIX3M/VIX = 1.08), CTAs comfortable holding positions — VVIX at 111 (normal) full confidence in trend signals, no damping needed — VIX dropped 16.7% over 5 days Amber flags: — Implied correlation at 19.1 and falling — the market is dispersed. CTA signals are noisier when stocks aren't moving together as a bloc. — SKEW at 150.4: options market pricing tail risk despite the equity rally. Someone is hedging hard. — DBMF 5-day correlation to SPY at -0.87 — CTAs are STILL short equities. Covering hasn't started. The regime says LONG but the CTA replication ETF says they haven't turned yet. 8 of 10 tracked assets are in uptrends: DBC +0.791, USO +0.719, IWM +0.617, GLD +0.568, SPY +0.474, QQQ +0.451, FXE +0.425, HYG +0.125 Only two are bearish: TLT -0.295 (bonds still the primary drag, 20% weight) UUP -0.261 (dollar weakening) The dollar weakening and bonds selling off while equities, commodities, and gold all rally, that's a classic risk-on, inflation-hedge regime. CTAs are positioned for it in commodities and gold, but still short equities and bonds. What to watch: — DBMF correlation snapping back toward zero = CTA covering has started — SKEW falling below 140 = tail hedging fading, higher confidence — Implied correlation rising = macro-driven trends returning, cleaner signals Not Investment Advice $SPY $QQQ $TLT $HYG $GLD $USO $DBC $UUP $IWM $FXE

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@alphaticaioApr 1, 2026 · 6:13 PM

Three days ago we said SPY $642 was the CTA covering trigger. Here's what happened. Day 1 (Mar 30): Regime -0.021, SPY $633. We identified the 250-day moving average at $642 as the first level where systematic trend followers begin covering equity shorts. It was 1.4% away. Day 2 (Mar 31): $34bn pension month-end rebalance (8th largest since Y2K per Goldman). SPY pushed through $642. Regime jumped to +0.096. The 250d DMA was reclaimed. Day 3 (Apr 1): Regime +0.107, SPY $658. Now 0.4% below the 20-day DMA at $660. The 3-day asset score changes tell the story: SPY: -0.235: +0.209 (DOWNTREND → UPTREND) QQQ: -0.267: +0.194 (DOWNTREND → UPTREND) IWM: +0.006: +0.360 (small caps leading) HYG: -0.363: -0.141 (credit stabilizing) GLD: +0.354: +0.558 (gold strengthening into the equity rally) TLT: -0.350: -0.374 (bonds SELLING OFF — classic risk-on rotation) The DBMF CTA ETF has a -0.47 correlation to SPY over 5 days. That confirms CTAs were short equities and are NOW getting squeezed. Bonds are the biggest single drag on the regime. TLT carries 20% weight and is the largest negative contributor at -0.075. TLT and HYG together account for 40% of the proxy because of inverse-vol weighting. Until bonds stabilize, the regime stays pinned in NEUTRAL even as equities recover. SPY still below 3 of 5 moving averages. The secular trend horizons (250d and 500d) are both reclaimed, but the fast and mid-term signals remain broken. Next trigger levels: SPY $660 (20d DMA): 0.4% away, fast trend reclaim SPY $678-680 (60d/125d cluster): 3.1-3.3% away, full CTA buying wave Not Investment Advice $SPY $QQQ $TLT $HYG $GLD $USO $DBC $UUP $IWM $FXE @alphaticaio

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@alphaticaioMar 31, 2026 · 6:34 PM

Yesterday we said SPY $642 was the CTA covering trigger. Today pension rebalancing pushed it through. Our CTA positioning proxy: Yesterday: -0.021 (17.5th percentile) Today: +0.096 What moved: — SPY reclaimed the 250-day moving average — HYG credit stress eased (20% of total weight) — Small caps led the bounce (IWM +0.232) — DBMF 5-day correlation hit -0.49 — confirms CTAs were short equities and are getting squeezed What hasn't: — TLT still the largest drag (-0.293, 20% weight) — SPY still below 20d, 60d, and 125d DMAs — Fast and mid-term equity trends remain broken The secular trend (500d DMA at $603) was never in danger. It's the shorter horizons that need to heal. Next CTA levels: $SPY $662 — 20d DMA reclaim $SPY $678-680 — 60d/125d cluster, full buying wave $SPY $QQQ $TLT $HYG $GLD $USO $DBC $UUP

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@murphychartsDec 22, 2025 · 12:33 AM

Energy Commodities vs. Broad Commodities, the price ratio is nearly 3 standard deviations below the 3yr average. What are we expecting from Energy in '26? $DBE $DBC https://t.co/XViBAuXjh1

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