Jason's Chips (@jasonschips) on Surfaced

Jason's Chips (@jasonschips) on Surfaced

Recent mentions

50 posts

@jasonschipsJun 2, 2026 · 1:04 PM

The most important takeaway from my Computex visit today is in optics. Inside this image is the reason for why $LITE and $AIXA are going to 10x. Can you see it? https://t.co/kHPzseahC2

@jasonschipsJun 2, 2026 · 10:34 AM

$GOOG equity raise is hyper bullish $LITE You are not prepared for the tsunami of revisions (Its my largest position now) https://t.co/zBHDwReKH8

@jasonschipsMay 29, 2026 · 2:44 PM

@iamsattam too much uncertainty there. $LITE $AIXA are my favorites bought more $LITE on dip

@jasonschipsMay 28, 2026 · 11:45 AM

$SIVE used to be an undiscovered small cap with a respectable thesis, but after a 20x return facilitated by large social media accounts (unethically and illegally) promoting the ticker, the valuation has gotten absurd. The only way to save the stock is through its optical division gaining a foothold in the CPO market, which is much less likely than what the many are promoting. Promoters believes $SIVE will gain a foothold because they are in conversations or have remote connections to hyperscalers through various optical startups. This is wrong because what actually matters is its technology, and it is precisely technology where Sivers falls apart. $SIVE is fabless because they lack the manufacturing expertise in the very difficult process of indium phosphide fabrication. Which means they lack a moat, as they are skipping the hard part to do the easy part. $SIVE owns no exclusive technology, as Lumentum makes the same exact laser arrays, but better. And finally, but most importantly, $SIVE is targeting the wrong architecture entirely. $LITE has a choice between UHP and WDM, and they made a choice to ramp the exact thing that is the opposite of what Sivers is doing, for volume production. Sivers Semiconductor is the most overvalued stock in optics.

@jasonschipsMay 25, 2026 · 2:50 PM

InP names $LITE $COHR $AIXA $AXTI probably benefit a lot more from CPO than SiPho names $TSEM $SOI It's all about content ratio in transceivers vs CPO. Big powerful lasers need a lot of Indium Phosphide!

@jasonschipsMay 25, 2026 · 3:23 AM

In my opinion optics are broadly still undervalued. $LITE and $COHR likely under 20x P/E on 2028 (estimates too low). $AIXA DEFINETLY under 20x P/E 2028. $AXTI could be under 20x P/E 2028 if ASPs surge (which they probably will) And then they have a decade of CPO ramp growth after that, hold meaningful hard assets fabless companies like $NVDA don’t (useful for superintelligence commoditization), and have meaningful differentiation, unlike memory. Which ones do you own?

@jasonschipsMay 24, 2026 · 7:02 PM

The accounts pumping (and inevitably dumping) $SIVE at ~$2.3b market cap have not done their one job as providers of investment research: showing the numbers. $SIVE had ~$33 million of revenue in 2025. 70% of it was their legacy wireless segment. The 30% of it that is photonics isn't purely data center, as that segment also includes LIDAR. A sub-division between the two categories is not given. So, yes, they have at most $10m in DC photonics revenue and trade at least 230x that revenue today. Now, of course, trailing revenue is a terrible way to value a photonics business, but we need an anchor somewhere with real numbers. $LITE give us plenty every single earnings call. 1. >$1b OCS run-rate in 2027. 2. Greensboro fab that supports >$5b of CPO revenue likely to be sold out. 3. $8b revenue run rate to be achieved in 18 months. $SIVE has not announced a single DC photonics *volume* purchase order or given any DC photonics revenue guidance. Not a single one, and I'm not kidding. The only anchor we have to go off of is that they had, at most, $10 million in data center photonics revenue in 2025, most likely far less. What CAGR is needed to justify their current $2.3 billion market cap?

@jasonschipsMay 24, 2026 · 1:38 PM

$SIVE is on a speculative, unsustainable rally that is not backed by any fundamentals. Healthy parabolic stocks like $LITE, $BE, $AXTI, $SNDK either pop and grind up following each earnings event as new information is introduced to the market and improves the fundamental outlook OR they sell a raw material or commodity whose supply/demand dynamics and price can be tracked publicly. $SIVE is neither. The last earnings call was on February 26th, to which the market had zero reaction; however starting mid-March, $SIVE proceeded to run 2000%. No fundamental news was released to warrant such a re-rating. The O-Net and Jabil R&D partnerships are not new. The news that is actually needed to move the fundamental value: commercial volume orders with real dollar values attached, did not occur. In fact, they restated their FY25 EBIT net loss, which got worse. My bearish campaign against $SIVE is only beginning. The higher this speculative stock runs, the more people will lose money; we must keep the damage contained. Those purposely spreading unreliable information to increase the market capitalization of an illiquid microcap to inflate their own wealth at the expense of everyday investors must be held accountable. My short report is coming soon.

@jasonschipsMay 24, 2026 · 1:46 AM

@jonesrrrrrr Look at $LITE, $AIXA, $SOI, $TSEM, etc. There are many great companies in the photonics space that are positioned nicely (and are not shitcos lmao). Try to understand the tech and market dynamics and pick which ones you like best. My favorite are $LITE $AIXA

@jasonschipsMay 24, 2026 · 1:12 AM

" $SIVE can reach $80b because $LITE is $80b" has to be the dumbest and most dangerous investment thesis ever. People will lose their savings listening to all this misinformation. It's sad and needs to stop (I am starting an anti $SIVE crusade). 1. $SIVE is not a bottleneck (despite it being the poster child of the photonics bottleneck craze). A bottleneck, by definition, must be the company that constrains the production of a massive downstream industry. To constrain production, you must both own hard physical assets and hold a dominant market share position. Sivers has neither. Sivers is a fabless design company that relies on WIN for Foundry services, and with revenues of ~$30 million, they hold near zero market share in the massive datacom laser industry. 2. Supply chain analysis is misleading. In semiconductors (or any industry producing a durable manufactured good) switching costs are near zero while process power, cornered resources, and scale dominate. Therefore, "who has a superior product" is far more important than "who supplies what to whom." CPO external light sources require quality lasers meeting noise (linewidth and RIN) and power (400mW+) specs. $SIVE lasers are far inferior to that of larger peers like $LITE. 3. $SIVE valuation is comically detached from reality. On NTM metrics, $LITE trades at 14x EV/Revenue and 32x EV/EBITDA while $SIVE trades at 50x and 650x (!!) those same metrics. As a permanent AI infra bull, I fully agree that consensus is too conservative; however, they are not off by two orders of magnitude. The misinformation needs to stop. Let's help actually help retail understand what they own.

@jasonschipsMay 24, 2026 · 12:22 AM

@Jos1984482 "Not arguing that it's a bad stock (yet). Just saying that 'valued the same as $LITE' wouldn't be your thesis :)"

@jasonschipsMay 23, 2026 · 11:50 PM

$SIVE vs $LITE valuation multiples: Since we're running comps, let's use consensus projections (even though consensus is usually too conservative with AI infra companies) Let's also not discuss how one of them has possibly the best lasers in the world, while the other has possibly the worst. Revenues and margins only! $LITE trades at 14x NTM EV/Revenue and 32x NTM EV/EBITDA with 44% EBITDA margins. Not bad. $SIVE is 50x NTM EV/Revenue and... with 7.6% EBITDA margins... 650x NTM EV/EBITDA! Not arguing that it's a bad stock (yet). Just saying that "valued the same as $LITE" wouldn't be your thesis :)

@jasonschipsMay 23, 2026 · 9:23 PM

The most stupid phenomenon I've witnessed so far as an investor is the recently popularized idea of big = late/overvalued and small = early/undervalued. Intrinsic value is the sum of the present value of future cash flows. The fact that $SIVE is $2b and $LITE is $80b has absolutely zero implications for investment returns without knowing the competitive positioning and financials of each company. $SIVE will not reach market cap parity with $LITE just because they both make the same widget (lasers). It's like saying you're early to Trader Joe's because it is 1% the size of Walmart. But sadly, it looks like the crypto meme people have found and infested photonics.

@jasonschipsMay 23, 2026 · 8:13 PM

PSA: $LITE is still comically undervalued

@jasonschipsMay 23, 2026 · 12:02 PM

The most common question that I've gotten on this post is that all of $AXTI, $LITE, $AIXA, $COHR, $SOI, $TSEM have gone parabolic so why is this even an interesting space anymore? My spicy take is that I LIKE stocks whose charts are a little parabolic (of course only to an extent) What does a parabolic chart mean? It means that the shares were trading hands at a lower price in the past. Buyers were buying from sellers and sellers were selling to buyers. They were wrong about the value of the company. The next day they buy and sell at a slightly higher price. They are still wrong. and so on and so on. That is how you get a parabolic chart. If the market is in a constant state of being wrong, what is the probability that they've stopped being wrong today? I believe it's actually lower especially in industries with multiple overlapping secular tailwinds like optics (photonics + networking + AI).

@jasonschipsMay 22, 2026 · 9:09 PM

I have seen some optics bears say that because it is much easier to add laser capacity than perhaps in other industries like memory, optics will be overbuilt. This is nearly impossible! Today, InP substrate and laser supply is already completely cooked. Lumentum is more than 30% behind demand. This is even without any CPO shipments. And then we must apply the CPO exponential. First, networking will grow as a share of the BOM as we hit the limits of Moore's Law. Second, CPO penetrates deeper and deeper into the rack each year, causing a half an order of magnitude of content increase each time it does so. Supply exists in the linear physical world and is not prepared for the exponential portion of the CPO S-curve. $AXTI, $LITE, $AIXA, $COHR, $SOI, $TSEM will continue to mint

@jasonschipsMay 22, 2026 · 8:40 PM

For anyone interested in learning about the CPO supply chain! (I also explain it in a fun and understandable way) Covered: $AXTI, $LITE, $AIXA, $COHR, $SOI, $TSEM

@jasonschipsMay 20, 2026 · 12:38 AM

Holy shit LFG $LITE If they solve their capacity problem even slightly this is easily a multi hundred billion co

@jasonschipsMay 19, 2026 · 6:12 PM

Leopold's 13F caused the dumbest sell-off in semiconductor history (I am aware I played a part in the FUD, mb). The lesson is simple. OPTIONS ON 13-Fs ARE MISLEADING!! The value of options reported on the 13F is the market value of the notional, aka the shares controlled by the options. This means that: 1. The actual market value of the option is way way smaller. 2. That small value has a huge range depending on the expiry date and the moneyness. If they were one- or two-month out OTM puts to hedge Iran, it could be 1 to 3% of what is reported on the 13F. Buy back your semis, people! Doing an actual analysis on his 13F, we can observe a few interesting patterns. 1. He existed all of his optics positions, EVERYTHING. $LITE, $TSEM, $COHR. 2. He added to SanDisk and it is now his second largest position. 3. He remains surprisingly bullish on Bitcoin miners as it still makes up a third of his portfolio This article is my attempt at mindreading him. I've read the original situational awareness essay like five times and I've followed every single 13F since Q2 2025 so I think I'm pretty qualified. https://t.co/XM9LrXGPjk

@jasonschipsMay 14, 2026 · 5:52 PM

$CBRS fully diluted valuation is over $100 billion. This is larger than $LITE, $COHR, $BE, $CIEN, $SNPS, $CRWV Would you take Cerebras over them? https://t.co/2RliMRms01

@jasonschipsMay 13, 2026 · 12:32 PM

GG WP. I was wrong for selling them early. Seems like we're in a regime where even capacity-constrained (monopoly) players like $TSEM can still beat and raise as the ecosystem always figures out a way to help the bottleneck. Same probably applies to $LITE

@jasonschipsMay 12, 2026 · 4:36 AM

"What's the next $LITE?" ... it's $LITE

@jasonschipsMay 10, 2026 · 9:30 PM

My "above street" $LITE model from Feb/March had CY28 EPS at $37. Now the street is at $50. This is why I no longer sell companies on "valuation." https://t.co/1XcTt2UcFj

@jasonschipsMay 9, 2026 · 4:35 PM

$LITE's sellside consensus price target is now at $1,065. It's above the market price again. When was the last time you saw that happen? https://t.co/BQZMNhQ8R6

@jasonschipsMay 8, 2026 · 2:36 PM

I spent the last 2 weeks covering $INTC $BE $AIXA $LITE $ARM $CRWV earnings instead of studying for my finals and now I might be cooked for my exam (it is 3pm today and I haven't started studying)

@jasonschipsMay 7, 2026 · 4:53 PM

@bubbleboi Mood swings between shitco and $LITE 2.0 are thrilling

@jasonschipsMay 5, 2026 · 8:44 PM

First take on $LITE print. If you think back to when they gave us longer-term guidance during OFC, they said that they would get to $1.25b of quarterly revenue run rate in 9-12 months (so March 2027 quarter). They just guided to nearly a billion in quarterly revenue this quarter. Let’s do the math. In the March quarter, they added $135 M in revenue. This quarter they’re adding $185 M in revenue. Their sequential absolute growth is accelerating. Now they’re only around $270 M off. This means they might be on track to hit their target up to two quarters early, possibly in the September quarter.

@jasonschipsMay 5, 2026 · 8:14 PM

I may have sadly been right on $LITE earnings Q3 FY26: Rev: $ 808M (guide: $ 805) Non-GAAP OM: 32.2% (guide: 30.5%) Non-GAAP EPS: $2.37 (guide: $2.25) Q4 FY26 guide vs consensus: Rev: $ 980M midpoint (cons: ~$900M) Non-GAAP OM: 35.0-36.0% Non-GAAP EPS: $2.85-3.05 (cons: ~$2.65) Down 6% after hours. Won't be surprised at all if this reverses quick though.

@jasonschipsMay 5, 2026 · 2:17 AM

$LITE day tmrw.

@jasonschipsMay 4, 2026 · 7:02 PM

@crux_capital_ At first my intuition says that it's pretty unlikely. I think the names where the share price move is sustainable are the ones where the fundamentals are changing, like earnings beats and deals signed and stuff ($LITE $BE), but this one seems to be all vibes. This doesn't mean it can't work but really the probability is much lower, to the point where I don't find it interesting

@jasonschipsMay 4, 2026 · 6:52 PM

$SIVE looks like a meme stock to me lmao Although I probably just don't know that much about the company and people say the same about my favs $LITE and $BE which also have ridiculous charts Will do some work on them just for fun

@jasonschipsApr 8, 2026 · 4:38 PM

My performance today feels illegal ( $LITE about to be up 10% too) https://t.co/TBFsdZ3JbF

@jasonschipsApr 1, 2026 · 3:11 PM

$1000 is inevitable $LITE https://t.co/hKRQfril5l

@jasonschipsMar 27, 2026 · 2:25 PM

The only $LITE in the darkness https://t.co/iQCfSZBGI0

@jasonschipsMar 27, 2026 · 1:11 PM

How the fuck did they... $LITE https://t.co/IWRznMsbJR

@jasonschipsMar 26, 2026 · 3:26 AM

why does this feel very off? i have positive opinion of $AAOI but it's $LITE that sells the lasers externally. if anything $AAOI buys lasers. really it comes down to if laser capacity > transceiver capacity, they sell lasers, and if tranceivers > laser capacity, they buy them. $LITE is the former $AAOI the latter.

@jasonschipsMar 24, 2026 · 4:32 PM

One day after moving to top pick $LITE https://t.co/mj9CWvxdN5

@jasonschipsMar 23, 2026 · 4:45 PM

@auer_trist24737 $LITE better imo. $SOI still one of my largest pos

@jasonschipsMar 23, 2026 · 4:10 PM

I have been a Lumentum $LITE bull since $250 in November. Let me tell you a story. Once upon a time (2 weeks ago), I wondered… when will scale-up CPO be adopted? What rack architecture will Nvidia use and will it be optical? How big is the market? Then, GTC and OFC happened at the same time. We got our answers. All of them. When I opened Lumentum’s OFC presentation, my jaw dropped. After a full weekend of work, I present to you my analysis. Of why I moved Lumentum back to Top Pick. And my full bottoms-up build of Lumentum’s CPO revenue. Please check it out! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

@jasonschipsMar 21, 2026 · 2:04 AM

Only $5.5b in 2027 hahahaha $LITE

@jasonschipsFeb 3, 2026 · 9:32 PM

GM 42.5% vs 39% op margins 25% vs 20% Q3 guide $800m vs $680m op margins 30% vs 20% (WTF!!!!!!) OCS backlog well above $400 million, multi hundred million CPO order deliverable H1 27. Expectations MURDERED. Don't mess with $LITE

@jasonschipsFeb 2, 2026 · 5:51 PM

@jasonschipsJan 30, 2026 · 9:06 PM

@Chrysos079 Anything gemini related is directly benefitting $LITE. They are the king of Google's supplier ecosystem.

@jasonschipsJan 30, 2026 · 2:44 PM

All of the $LITE 's https://t.co/w2yYVbedJX

@jasonschipsJan 25, 2026 · 11:06 PM

After dozens of hours of research, I have concluded the $LITE vs $COHR debate is frankly stupid. $LITE makes high-power narrow-linewidth DFB lasers for CPO and MEMS OCS + BiDi transceivers for Google TPU ecosystem. $COHR mass produces basic transceivers for everyone else using their vertically integrated supply chain. While on paper their markets overlap, $LITE is so behind on scale while $COHR is so behind in laser tech they almost don't compete. The bulk of their revenue comes from completely different places! With an optical communications market this large, I am betting on both to not miss the alpha.

@jasonschipsDec 23, 2025 · 5:21 AM

@insane_analyst Hey, thanks for sharing, I really enjoy your pieces. Wondering why you disagreed with OCS as upside to $LITE?

@jasonschipsDec 15, 2025 · 5:05 AM

$LITE https://t.co/vuzg6qEaS1

@jasonschipsDec 14, 2025 · 5:25 PM

@fundaai Scale-up for $LITE seems extremely compelling...

@jasonschipsDec 14, 2025 · 6:45 AM

2/3 I've just published the first part of my multi-part series on $LITE. Between now and the end of the year, I’ll publish a piece every few days or so forecasting one part of this business and explaining in depth the industry dynamics behind my assumptions.

@jasonschipsDec 14, 2025 · 6:44 AM

I've spent the last month researching Lumentum $LITE, a name that's become popular on this platform. It's a truly fascinating company with many business lines all hitting inflection points and several credible, completely unrelated long theses. https://t.co/vFbGLON5Sr