8 trading days ago we published the Inflation Matrix.
CPI hot. PPI confirmed hot the next morning. Both Hot quadrant.
Historical average at 20 days:
$SPY: +1.44%, 69% win rate
$QQQ: +2.67%, 81% win rate
Through May 22 close (8 of 20 trading days):
$SPY: +1.19%
$QQQ: +1.32%
Tracking. 12 trading days left in the window.
The framework: it's not about hot or cold. It's about whether CPI and PPI agree. When they agree, forward returns are positive regardless of direction. When they disagree, returns go flat to negative.
Both reports agreed. The data is doing exactly what our research said it would do.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $SPXL