$OKE
Large-cap midstream energy co with shares down ~34% YTD vs. KMI -8% and EPD -2%... why?
1) 4 segments - NGLs, nat gas processing, crude products, nat gas pipelines
2) revenue is 90-95% fee-based for services (processing, storage, transport, etc.)
3) during 2023-2024: made a few large acquisitions ($10.8bn cash, 182m / +41% shares issued, $19bn debt assumed)
4) since 2022 (pre-acq)... EBITDA +$4.6bn (i.e. ~9x multiple paid) & op. cash flow +$2.4bn & another ~$150m synergies in '26
5) leverage target is 3.5x (vs. 3.9x currently), mgmt expects to get there by YE26... dividend is biggest piece of cap allocation (yield = ~6% and growing 3-4%/yr)
6) '25 EPS guide ~$5.40 (12.4x) and ~$6 in '26 (11x) vs. peers at 17-19x (that would be >$100/share)
7) why is it cheap? 1) still digesting "transformational" acquisitions; 2) skepticism around '25/'26 guide
Need to look at peers (KMI/EPD/ET, etc.), but this is a nice recurring rev biz with reasonable leverage and solid growth outlook (power gen is in growth mode)