I bought a bunch of $WLTH this week.
At $7.80, this broken IPO (went public in Dec at $14) is a sub $1.1 b EV with $400 mm+ in cash and no debt. Trades for around 6.5x run rate EV/EBITDA and is capital light.
Primary risk is lower interest rates which could lead to outflows and lower spreads on their cash mgmt biz, which is their biggest earner. Their investment robo-advisory biz is also exposed to market volatility.
Still, they’ve been growing customers nicely and are rolling out new features, like mortgage lending.
I see limited AI risk given their very low investment advisory fees.
There’s a good chance they can grind through this rate cutting cycle without too much earnings pain. But even if earnings did take a material hit, the current valuation has already discounted a lot.
Finally, the $WLTH IPO included meaningful shares from selling stockholders, so the post-IPO lock-up expiry should be less of a headwind than for many new issues.