ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF. Every tracked FinTwit mention of $TLT, newest first. 137 mentions since the first on Jul 19, 2025. See the price chart.
July 2026 · 10 mentions
Jul 13
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | July 13, 2026
$SOXX -3.7%. All four thematics negative. $SLV -2.8%. $GLD -2.2%. Precious metals sell again. $USO +4.6%. $XLE +2.6%. Oil leads. Again. Same struc…↗
Jul 12
Alphatica — WEEKLY DARK POOL RECAP | Week 17 | Q3 Week Two
Our classification algorithm called 13/17 correct. 76.5%. Top 10 by conviction: 10/10. $24.2B net buy. The dark pool bought the wors…↗
Jul 8
Alphatica — DARK POOL SCANNER | July 8, 2026
+$2.54B. Largest dark pool buy of the series. $SPY +$868M. Second consecutive massive buy on a sell day. $QQQ +$832M. $TSM +$216M zero sells. Ever…↗
Jul 8
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | July 8, 2026
$USO +5.2%. Second session leading. 10.1% spread. Widest of the series. All four factors negative. All four thematics negative. $SLV -4.9%. No safe…↗
Jul 7
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | July 7, 2026
$SOXX -4.9%. Ten sessions. $TAN -4.7%. $MTUM -3.1%. Growth crushed. $USO +2.5% leads. Oil back above $70. $XBI +2.1%. $USMV only green factor. The…↗
Jul 6
Alphatica — 4:55 PM. Two dark pool sells in 10 seconds. Both NASDAQ Carteret. Both after hours.
│ 16:55:44 MU SELL $128,017,500 NASDAQ Carte │
│ 16:55:34 NVDA SELL $326,177,400 NASDAQ Carte │…↗
Jul 6
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | July 6, 2026
$SOXX +4.18%. All four thematics green. $ARKK +3.34%. $TAN +3.46%. Staples -1.87%. Healthcare -1.35%. Utilities -1.28%. Defensives sold. The rotati…↗
Jul 1
Alphatica — DARK POOL SCANNER | July 1, 2026
$SPY +$2.61B dark pool. The pattern reversed. $MSFT +$988M. Zero sells. The 17-week distribution broke. $MU -$289M. $TSM -$287M. Both agree sell.…↗
Jul 1
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | July 1, 2026
$IGV +4.30%. Largest software move of the series. $SOXX -5.31%. 9.6% spread. Widest of the series. The split inverted on Q3 day one.
Leader: $IGV…↗
Jul 1
Alphatica — UNUSUAL DARK POOL PRINT:
│ 10:01:52 TLT BUY $189,092,007 NASDAQ Carte │
Someone is making a bet after the Warsh speech.
$TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/Hxlhmi4tO6↗
June 2026 · 42 mentions
Jun 30
Alphatica — +$14.16B. 11 buyers. 3 sellers. Five names with zero sells. $QQQ +$4.36B. $MU +$2.92B. $SPY the lone index sell. Last day of Q2.
18,740 blocks (combined sessions). June 30, 2026.…↗
Jun 30
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 30, 2026
$SOXX +3.71%. Second session. The dark pool buy validated. $XLRE -1.28%. Defensives sell. Growth buys. All four thematics green. Last day of Q2.…↗
Jun 28
Alphatica — WEEKLY DARK POOL RECAP | Week 16 · June 22-25, 2026
Week 16. 76% accuracy. Sell signals: 11/14. The dark pool was distributing. Friday stripped for Q2 window dressing.
This week…↗
Alphatica — @MarioNawfal Directionally right but the "at some point" framing is too generous. We can time it.
CBO says interest hits 4.6% of GDP by 2036. Debt-to-GDP crosses the WWII record b…↗
May 29
Alphatica — 🚨🚨🚨 Regime Change Warning | MAY 29 🚨🚨🚨
We just updated our 25-year study of SPY-TLT correlation. What we just found is unprecedented.
The 60-day SPY-TLT correlation is +0.5…↗
May 29
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 29, 2026 | Week 12
$IGV +5.3%. The largest software move in our scanners history. $DELL +33%. Gold +1.5%. 7.0% spread.
Leader: $IGV (Software) +5.3%
Laggar…↗
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | April 30, 2026
The mega-caps beat. The money went everywhere else.
$MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN all beat last night. You'd expect tech to lead today. It's the laggard.…↗
Apr 24
Alphatica — Where the money is going.
We track 37 proxy ETFs in real time across sectors, factors, thematic, and macro. Every session, the rotation scanner shows you exactly where the institu…↗
Apr 14
Alphatica — CTA Positioning Update: April 14
Strongest raw regime score we've measured: +0.260 (LONG). SPY $693. Confidence: 76%.
The trend data is the most bullish it's been in this entire…↗
Alphatica — Yesterday we said SPY $642 was the CTA covering trigger. Today pension rebalancing pushed it through.
Our CTA positioning proxy:
Yesterday: -0.021 (17.5th percentile)
Today: +0.09…↗
Mar 31
Jeff York, PPT — $ZN_F #10yearBond #FuturesTrading is near my 1st. profit target at the yearly #pivotpoint at $111.30(P). 🎯
Demarks Yearly S1 #pivot back to the traditional P = Textbook trade @P…↗
Mar 30
Alphatica — Bonds and credit are doing more damage to CTA positioning than equities right now.
Our multi-asset CTA positioning proxy reads NEUTRAL (-0.021). That's the 17.5th percentile — bel…↗
Carolyn Boroden — $TLT did not hit the support exactly but it was close enough to look for triggers. Today target 2 was met. I have time resistance next week....but if we get the pullback...I will…↗
Feb 27
Tradable Astronaut — $TLT It's not much, but I will take the green in this market https://t.co/0JD3tPyFfS↗
Feb 24
Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) — The $IEF ETF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds) is up +1.3% YTD on a price basis and +1.6 pct since the start of February. Longer dated paper ( $TLT, iShares 20+ Treasuries) is do…↗
Feb 20
Carolyn Boroden — $TLT support decisions https://t.co/yfy53VM6Ak
January 2026 · 3 mentions
Jan 31
Lawrence McDonald — USD is close to 14% off its highs, the lowest level since early 2022. Long-duration US Treasuries are well off their highs ($TLT is 42% off 2020 levels), and Bitcoin is in a -38% d…↗
George Noble — I had the privilege to present at the Porter & Co. conference in September.
Gold, bonds, speculative stocks, Tesla and Opendoor were just a few of the topics covered. My view…↗
December 2025 · 1 mention
Dec 16
George Noble — Mind the gap. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/Ab7EKKYuC5↗
October 2025 · 4 mentions
Oct 22
Leveraged Cat — I might even buy $TLT https://t.co/PT5NSu7QUd↗
Oct 18
Lawrence McDonald — 2025, an Epic Year
$GDX +132%
$SIL +132%
$REMX +83%
$PLTM +76%
$NUKZ +72%
$COPX +60%
$PALL +59%
$SOXX +33%
$SLX +26%
$MAGS +18%
$IBIT +14%
$TLT +4%
Bloomberg data l↗
Oct 2
Lawrence McDonald — 2025 as of Aug 30th
Gold Miners $GDX 86%
Silver Miners $SIL 83%
Platinum $PLTM 50%
Rare Earth Metals $REMX 62%
Nuclear $NUKZ 44%
Copper Miners $COPX 31%
Steel $SLX 22%
Palladium $…↗
Leveraged Cat — If you like shorting things bonds look like an decent short here $TLT
Maybe just intraday but probably works for a few weeks
Rates are going 📈↗
July 2025 · 2 mentions
Jul 19
Lawrence McDonald — Connect the Dots
Global Crypto
2025: $4T
2022: $800B
Gold
2025: $22T
2022: $12T
US Long Duration Government Bonds $TLT ETF
Price per Share
2025: $85
2019: $165
Via @BearT…↗
Jul 8
Lawrence McDonald — What are bonds telling us globally? Paper certificates.
$EMLC vs $TLT - An interesting comparison of bond funds here. Local currency bonds globally are crushing long-term U.S. Tre…↗
June 2025 · 2 mentions
Jun 13
Alfonso De Pablos, CMT — Every time the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $TLT has been down near these prices, buyers have shown up and bought it.
Check it out 👇
https://t.co/swA3BrLOu8 https://t.co/BpnvKbc2L…↗
Jun 3
Lawrence McDonald — 2025
Hard Assets
Platinum $SBSW +91%
Gold Miners $GDXJ +62%
Silver Miners $SILJ +41%
AI Power $NUKZ +24%
Financial Assets
Risk Parity $RPAR +4%
Big Tech $QQQ +2%
U.S. Trea…↗
— DARK POOL SCANNER | June 24, 2026
The $SPY pattern broke. Dark pool sold $SPY -$1.44B. Both tapes agree for the first time. $TLT +$511M. Zero sells. Duration bought. $MU earnings…
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 24, 2026
$XBI leads. Second session. All four thematics green. $SLV -4.84%. $USO -3.69%. $GLD -2.64%. Commodities crushed. $TLT +1.44%. Bonds rally.
Leade…↗
Jun 22
Alphatica — DARK POOL SCANNER | June 22, 2026
Lit: -$8.5B. Dark: $SPY +$1.11B. The dark pool still buys $SPY. Third consecutive session. $TLT -$354M. The duration bet unwound. We called it at…↗
Jun 22
Alphatica — LIT TAPE | June 22, 2026
-$8.5B net sell. Seven of eight names selling. Five with zero buys.
Thursday: +$57.92B. All 8 buy. Zero sellers. Quarterly OPEX.
Today: -$8.5B. Seven of…↗
Jun 22
Alphatica — SPY UPDATE | Monday June 22, 2:15 PM
$744.85. Down 0.25%. The structure that was near-zero this morning is -$818M now. The GEX flip broke. The quarter-end rebalancing is arriving.…↗
Jun 22
Alphatica — We want to give our channel a quick update as we are seeing unusual patterns in the Dark Pool today. There was a recent $1B+ of simultaneous selling across QQQ, IWM, TLT, and BRK.B…↗
Jun 22
Alphatica — 🚨🚨DARK POOL ALERT:
│ 12:36:25 IWM SELL $225,944,941 NASDAQ Carte │
12:36 PM. $226M $IWM sell just crossed in the dark pool. NASDAQ Carteret.
Seven minutes after the $183M $TL…↗
Jun 22
Alphatica — 🚨🚨DARK POOL ALERT:
12:29 PM. $183M $TLT sell just crossed in the dark pool. NASDAQ Carteret.
12:29:13 TLT SELL $182,877,500 NASDAQ Carte
The dark pool bought $TLT before th…↗
Jun 22
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 22, 2026
$XBI +3.6%. Biotech leads the week. $IGV -2.3%. Software selling accelerates. 5.9% gap. The widest biotech/software spread of the series.
Leader:…↗
Jun 22
Alphatica — WEEKLY DARK POOL RECAP | Week 15 · June 15-18, 2026
Week 15. 85% accuracy. Buy signals: 9/10. Through hawkish Warsh and quarterly OPEX. The algorithm improved.
Four sessions this…↗
Jun 19
Alphatica — 9 of 18 Fed members now want at least one rate hike in 2026.
Six months ago the debate was how many cuts.
The plane was supposed to be descending. The pilot just pulled up.
Mean…↗
Jun 18
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 18, 2026
$SOXX +6.3%. Quarterly OPEX. $IGV -0.4%. The split at its widest. 6.7% gap. Gamma concentrates in semis.
Leader: $SOXX (Semiconductors) +6.3%
Lag…↗
Jun 17
Alphatica — 🚨🚨SPY VOLATILITY ALERT | Wednesday June 17, 3:45 PM | Post-FOMC
$740.13. Down 1.36%. New all-time bearish flow record. The structure we mapped for three weeks executed in one se…↗
Jun 17
Alphatica — SPY ALERT | Wednesday June 17, 2:22 PM | Post-FOMC
$747.05. Down 0.44%. The $749 flip broke. GEX flipped negative. The structure we mapped for three weeks just crossed the line. H…↗
Jun 17
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 17, 2026
$XBI +4.6%. Biotech leads on FOMC day. The rate-sensitive trade. $SOXX +3.5%. $IGV flat. Software waits for Warsh.
Leader: $XBI (Biotech) +4.6%
L…↗
Jun 17
Alphatica — SPY OPEN | Wednesday June 17 | FOMC Decision Day | Update 1
$750.38. Flat. The GEX flip is $1.38 below price. The thinnest structural cushion we have ever published heading into a…↗
Jun 16
Alphatica — DARK POOL SCANNER | June 16, 2026
Lit: -$14.23B. Dark: +$1.79B. $SPY +$2.98B in the dark pool. We flagged it this morning. $TLT +$410M. The duration bet into FOMC.
346 off-exchan…↗
Jun 16
Alphatica — Both tapes buying $TLT into FOMC. The institutions are positioning for duration ahead of Warsh's first decision. Oil down about 20% over eleven sessions. The inflation math is chan…↗
Alphatica — 🚨🚨DARK POOL ALERT:
│ Tkr Buy $ Sell $ Net $ #│
│ TLT $ 374.6M $ 50.9M $ +323.6M 6│
They are making a bet on $TLT into tomorrow.
$SPY $QQQ https://t.co/mFsPCVPyMG↗
Jun 16
Alphatica — SPY UPDATE | Tuesday June 16, 2:30 PM | FOMC Eve
$752.16. Down 0.35%. The blanket lost $520M in one session. The institutions opened 4.88M new put positions. This is the heaviest…↗
Jun 16
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 16, 2026
$XLU +1.6%. Utilities lead. First time. $SOXX -3.5%. $IGV -1.4%. Yesterday reversed. FOMC eve. Full defensive.
Leader: $XLU (Utilities) +1.6%
Lag…↗
Jun 16
Alphatica — 🚨🚨SPY VOLATILITY ALERT | Tuesday June 16, 10:25 AM (Update 1)
$753.30. The surface is quiet. The positioning underneath isn't. Three changes in the last hour.
THE GEX FLIP IS N…↗
Jun 15
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 15, 2026
$ARKK +5.6%. $SOXX +5.0%. $IGV +3.0%. Software is back. The split resolved. $USO -4.6%. 10.2% spread.
Leader: $ARKK (Innovation) +5.6%
Laggard: $…↗
Jun 14
InvestmentGuru — 🚨 Kevin Warsh’s FIRST FOMC meeting — June 16-17
Rate hold is ~97% priced in. The real catalyst = the dot plot + his first press conference tone.
Bull: dot plot holds/adds 2026 c…↗
Jun 14
InvestmentGuru — 10 ETFs to Track Market Pulse & Sector Rotation
One-glance dashboard for where capital is flowing across the AI supercycle
AI Infrastructure Core
$DRAM — memory cycle (Micron, S…↗
Jun 12
Alphatica — FOMC PREVIEW | June 16-17
This is not a normal Fed meeting. Here's what nobody is talking about.
The rate decision is priced. The market expects a hold at 3.50-3.75%. That's not…↗
Jun 12
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 12, 2026
4.3% spread. The narrowest of the series. Nearly everything green. $XLB leads. $IGV still red. SpaceX IPO day.
Leader: $XLB (Materials) +1.6%
Lag…↗
Jun 11
Alphatica — INTERNALS UPDATE | 2:30 PM ET
Trump says there is an Iran peace deal. The internals flipped in three hours. The roller coaster continues.
This morning at 11:30 AM we published t…↗
Jun 11
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 11, 2026
$SOXX +3.9%. All factors green. $XBI +2.0%. $IGV -1.5%. Software alone on the sell side. The split returns.
Leader: $SOXX (Semiconductors) +3.9%…↗
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 9, 2026
$XLRE +1.9%. Real estate leads. $SOXX -3.0%. $IGV -2.9%. Oil crashing. The market is pricing lower rates.
Leader: $XLRE (Real Estate) +1.9%
Laggar…↗
Jun 8
Alphatica — @markminervini The third type: those who think they're managing risk but their hedge is correlated to their position. We just published a 23-year study showing SPY-TLT correlation…↗
Jun 8
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 8, 2026
$SOXX +7.1%. The largest semiconductor move in this series history. Friday: -6.5%. A 13.6% swing.
Leader: $SOXX (Semiconductors) +7.1%
Laggard: $X…↗
Jun 5
Alphatica — @LawrenceLepard We've been tracking this. Our correlation scanner shows SPY-TLT at the 100th percentile. The highest reading in 23 years. When everything moves together on the way…↗
Jun 5
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 5, 2026
$SOXX -6.5%. $SLV -7.1%. $TAN -7.3%. $XLP +1.7%. Consumer staples leads. The market hides in cereal and toothpaste.
Leader: $XLP (Consumer Staples…↗
Jun 4
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 4, 2026
$XBI +3.0%. $XLF +2.5%. $SOXX -2.9%. $XLK -2.0%. The great rotation. Out of tech. Into everything else.
Leader: $XBI (Biotech) +3.0%
Laggard: $USO…↗
Jun 3
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | June 3, 2026
$IGV -4.0%. Four days. The $DELL rally is gone. $SOXX +1.3%. $AVGO reports tonight.
Leader: $USO (Oil) +2.4%
Laggard: $IGV (Software) -4.0%
Spread…↗
— CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY SENTIMENT
Every major central bank leaned hawkish this week. Every single one. Here's the global picture.
THE FED:
Waller wants the easing bias removed from t…
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 26, 2026 | S&P All-Time High
$SOXX +5.8%. $MTUM +3.3%. Oil only red. 8.3% spread. The greenest scanner since this series began.
Leader: $SOXX (Semiconducto…↗
May 23
Alphatica — $63.1 billion flowed into bank deposits last week.
The Fed H.8 data just printed. Core deposits alone added $53.1 billion.
But the loan side tells a different story.
Total loans…↗
May 23
Lawrence McDonald — Two Years - Hard Assets vs Paper Certificates
Silver: +148%
Gold: +94%
Platinum: +86%
Copper: +35%
Coal: +11%
Bitcoin: +10%
Iron Ore +5%
Government Bonds: +1%*
*$TLT Bloomberg d…↗
May 22
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 22, 2026 | Warsh Day 1
$SOXX +2.6%. All sectors green. All factors green. The scanner wakes up.
Leader: $SOXX (Semiconductors) +2.6%
Laggard: $SLV (Silver)…↗
May 22
InvestmentGuru — The Bond Market Is Flashing Red
The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.2% — highest since 2007.
$TLT (iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF) is hovering in the low-$80s, down ~2.4% YTD. A bre…↗
May 21
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 21, 2026 | Post $NVDA
3.3% spread. The quietest scanner in weeks. The market is digesting.
Leader: $TAN (Solar) +1.7%
Laggard: $XLP (Consumer Staples) -1.6…↗
May 21
Alphatica — The 30-year Treasury is hovering around 52-week highs and the highest since 2007.
The 10-year hit 4.595%. 30-year mortgage at 6.65%. UK gilts at the highest since 2008. Japan bond…↗
May 20
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 20, 2026 | $NVDA Day
$SOXX +4.3%. All sectors green. All factors green. Oil only red. $NVDA tonight.
Leader: $SOXX (Semiconductors) +4.3%
Laggard: $USO (Oi…↗
May 20
Jeff York, PPT — $TNX the Yearly R1 #pivotpoints should be strong resistance. 🎯
$TLT $TBT https://t.co/eF9CZxxUUR↗
May 20
Alphatica — The 10-Year yield is 32 basis points from the only level that has produced statistically significant negative equity returns in the last 25 years. The 30-Year already broke through…↗
May 19
Alphatica — Three weeks ago we published the Japan carry trade stress model and told you to watch the line.
The line just moved.
JGB 40Y broke 4%. 🚨🚨The Japanese super-long bond that ancho…↗
May 19
Alphatica — CTA Positioning Proxy: May 19
The regime hit +0.420 (LONG, approaching MAX LONG threshold). SPY $737.
The DBMF CTA ETF finally confirmed what the trend data has been saying for w…↗
May 19
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 19, 2026 | $NVDA Eve
All tech red. Semis, software, solar. Healthcare and oil only green. $NVDA tomorrow.
Leader: $USO (Oil) +1.9%
Laggard: $SLV (Silver) -…↗
May 18
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 18, 2026
Tech sells into $NVDA earnings. Energy and financials lead. Two days.
Leader: $USO (Oil) +1.7%
Laggard: $TAN (Solar) -3.5%
Spread: 5.2%
The marke…↗
May 15
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 15, 2026 | OPEX Day
11.5% spread. All-time record. $SLV -8.5%. Oil the only green. OPEX destruction.
Leader: $USO (Oil) +3.1%
Laggard: $SLV (Silver) -8.5%…↗
May 14
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 14, 2026
Software leads. Every sector green. Every factor green. The broadening is real.
Leader: $IGV (Software) +2.6%
Laggard: $SLV (Silver) -3.3%
Spread:…↗
May 13
Jeff York, PPT — $ZN_F #10yearBonds #FuturesTrading today, is testing past support at $109.80 and $TNX is at past resistance at 4.50%. 🤔
$TBT $TLT 👀 https://t.co/kDMYs84Jrz↗
May 13
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 13, 2026 | 12:00 PM ET
Solar leads +3.7%. Software lags again. PPI 6.0% and the market shrugs.
Leader: $TAN (Solar) +3.7%
Laggard: $IGV (Software) -1.8%
Sp…↗
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 11, 2026 | 12:10 PM ET
Silver explodes +6.3%. Oil surges +3.5%. New record spread: 7.8%.
Leader: $SLV (Silver) +6.3%
Laggard: $XLP (Consumer Staples) -1.4%…↗
May 8
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 8, 2026 | 12:12 PM ET
Semis rip +3.9%. Value surges +3.3%. Tech leadership returns.
Leader: $SOXX (Semiconductors) +3.9%
Laggard: $XLV (Healthcare) -0.6%
S…↗
May 7
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 7, 2026
$IGV explodes +3.9%. Record spread. The software trade is back.
Leader: $IGV (Software) +3.9%
Laggard: $XBI (Biotech) -3.1%
Spread: 7.0%
The wides…↗
May 6
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 6, 2026
Innovation leads. Oil crashes. The possible Iran deal is repricing everything.
Leader: $ARKK (Innovation) +1.5%
Laggard: $USO (Oil) -1.4%
Spread: 2…↗
May 5
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 5, 2026
Semis explode +3%. Value surges +2.4%. Widest spread of the series.
Leader: $SOXX (Semiconductors) +3.0%
Laggard: $ARKK (Innovation) -2.1%
Spread:…↗
May 4
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 4, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET
Oil surges. Semis break. Biotech leads. Every factor red.
Leader: USO (Oil) +2.8%
Laggard: TAN (Solar) -1.4%
Spread: 4.1%
The Iran mi…↗
May 1
Alphatica — ROTATION SCANNER | May 1, 2026
Yesterday's leaders are today's laggards. Complete reversal.
Yesterday: XLE (Energy) +2.4% led. XLK (Tech) -0.7% lagged. Gold sold off.
Today: XLK…↗
— The CTA Positioning just flipped to LONG for the first time since March 10.
Nine days ago (Mar 30), the regime read -0.021 with SPY at $633. We identified SPY $642 as the first C…
Alphatica — @BobEUnlimited SPY outperforming TLT doesn't mean the economy is "better off." It means capital rotated out of duration and into risk assets. The drawdown at the orange line is the…↗
Apr 7
Alphatica — CTA Positioning Update
Five days ago we identified SPY $642 as the first CTA covering trigger. It reclaimed on Day 2.
We then flagged SPY $660 (20-day DMA) as the next level. Her…↗
Apr 2
Alphatica — CTA Positioning Update
Regime held at +0.107 despite SPY pulling back to $653.
Under the surface, equities softened but commodities strengthened and bonds stabilized — the compos…↗
Apr 1
Alphatica — Three days ago we said SPY $642 was the CTA covering trigger. Here's what happened.
Day 1 (Mar 30): Regime -0.021, SPY $633. We identified the 250-day moving average at $642 as th…↗
— Same Story - One month
Bonds $TLT -5%
vs
Stocks $QQQ -7%
Last 20 years, equities risk-off + geopolitical events = bonds rallied / with higher prices. Game changer, since 20…
Alphatica — @stocktalkweekly The bond market already priced this before she said it.
Three consecutive Treasury auctions tailed this week 2-year, 5-year, 7-year. Rate cut odds went from 95% t…↗
Mar 25
Alphatica — The 5-year auction just confirmed what the 2-year told us yesterday.
High yield: 3.98% vs 3.615% previous. That's a 36.5 bps jump between auctions. Bid-to-cover: 2.29 vs 2.32 prev…↗
Mar 25
unusual_whales — Updates on some of yesterday's large options flows:
Yesterday's $ASTS 95c 4/17 flows look to have been closed out at the open for more than a 100% gainer.
$DELL with several cal…↗
Mar 25
Alphatica — The bond market is telling a story that equities haven't fully priced.
Three phases this year.
Phase 1 (Jan-Feb 4): Yields ground higher quietly. 10Y pushed from 4.19% to 4.29%.…↗
Mar 24
Alphatica — @SpecialSitsNews The TLT options data backs this up.
Today's 2-year auction tailed 2bps on $69B of paper. Rate cut odds collapsed from 95% to 5% in three weeks. Markets now pricin…↗
Mar 18
Alphatica — SPY CLOSE | March 18. Fed Day.
$660.24. Down 1.57% (after-hours). The Fed broke it.
This morning we said the Fed decides everything. It did. SPY dropped $10.55 on the session. Th…↗
Mar 18
Alphatica — @zerohedge That's the admission. Powell just told you the Fed sees the labor market weakening from here and the oil shock is the cause. February already lost 92,000 jobs. Unemploym…↗
Mar 18
Alphatica — @TicTocTick They're not lying. They're using models that haven't caught up to the data. The Fed projects 2.4% GDP for 2026. The last actual print was 0.7%. February payrolls lost 9…↗
Mar 18
Alphatica — @zerohedge This is the widest dispersion in the dot plot in years. One member sees a hike. Another sees five cuts. That's a 150 basis point spread between the most hawkish and most…↗
Mar 18
Alphatica — $SPY | POST-FED
$665.63. Down 0.77%. The Fed held. The dot plot spoke. The structure deteriorated.
The decision: 11-1 hold at 3.50-3.75%. One dissenter wanted a cut. In January…↗
Mar 18
Alphatica — THE FED | March 18. What Changed and What to Watch.
The last time the Fed met on January 28, oil was at $60, GDP was tracking 1.4%, and two members dissented because they wanted to…↗
Mar 18
Alphatica — $SPY OPEN | March 18. Fed Day.
$669.36. Down 0.21%. The bounce stalled and the data just made the Fed's job harder.
February PPI hit the tape at 8:30 AM and it was ugly. Headline…↗
Mar 13
Alphatica — @CNN Cut in half. Q4 GDP revised from 1.4% to 0.7% — the economy was growing at half the pace we thought. That's a sharp deceleration from Q3's 4.4% and well below the 1.5% consens…↗
Mar 11
Alphatica — @vandell33 The data tells a more nuanced story. Bank Tier 1 capital ratios are more than double 2008 levels. Goldman's own research shows global earnings estimates have risen since…↗
Mar 11
Jeff York, PPT — $ZN_F $TNX #FuturesTrading I'm covering more shorts here at $112(QS1) from $114(YR1/QR2). 🎯😎
$TLT $TBT https://t.co/BDzu8E2Dgp↗
Mar 3
Alphatica — GLD / TLT SPREAD | Alphatica Research
Gold is worth 5.47x treasuries right now. That ratio has never been this high.
2,512 trading days. 10 years of data. The GLD/TLT ratio sat b…↗
Mar 2
Lawrence McDonald — Hard Assets vs. Paper Certifices
Gold > Nasdaq 100 since Q1 2018
*Up against bonds? $GLD +289% vs $TLT -4%. Bloomberg terminal data.↗
Carolyn Boroden — $TLT is pulling back with the time resistance illustrated on this chart. I'll be watching this pullback for a possible new buy entry...... https://t.co/3HeWQUur9R↗
Carolyn Boroden — $TLT counter trend trade ended up working nicely...but now we have some time/price resistance as a great reason to trail up stops on longs....this was on our end of day update rece…↗
Feb 7
Tradable Astronaut — $TLT interesting orders at the close https://t.co/UXgtQrwUdP↗