USD/JPY at 159.24. The dollar hasn't been this strong against the yen since July 2024 — when the Bank of Japan intervened at 161.62 to defend the currency. We're $2.38 from that line.
Why it matters now more than any other time on this chart: Japan imports 95% of its crude oil and 70% of it transits the Strait of Hormuz. Oil at $99. Priced in dollars. At the strongest dollar-yen exchange rate in a generation. That's a double squeeze — the commodity is more expensive AND the currency you pay for it in is more expensive.
Japan just committed 80 million barrels from its emergency reserves to the IEA's coordinated release. Japanese refiners are scrambling for alternative supply. If USD/JPY hits 161 and the BOJ intervenes while the Strait is still closed, you get a forced unwind of the yen carry trade — the same trade that crashed global markets for 48 hours last August when they intervened.
The last time this chart was at these levels the BOJ stepped in. The question is whether they can afford to this time — or whether defending the yen while oil is at $99 creates a bigger problem than the weak currency itself.
$USDJPY $FXY $USO $SPY