then you know my vibe.
I’m looking for companies that aren't just "tech stocks," but the actual backbone of the next industrial revolution.
I’ve added more to those three recently, and
is joining them as a permanent fixture in the long-term bucket.
Here is the lowdown on why I’m so high on this one.
One of my favorite Peter Lynch rules is the "Mall Walk" test. Basically, if you can see a company’s products working in the real world, you’re onto something. With
, it’s everywhere if you look:
Warehouse tech: Those autonomous forklifts and robots moving boxes? That’s often Ouster’s 3D vision.
Smart Cities: Ever see those sensor pods on traffic lights? They’re replacing those old-school wires in the asphalt to make intersections safer.
Security: High-end perimeter sensors that don't freak out every time a cat walks by? That’s Ouster’s "Gemini" software at work.
We talk a lot about AI in the digital sense (like ChatGPT), but "Physical AI" is where things get real. Machines need to "see" and "think" in 3D to move through our world. Ouster is the leader in Digital LiDAR.
While their competitors are mostly using "analog" tech (think vacuum tubes; clunky and expensive), Ouster has shrunk the tech onto two simple chips. It’s the same shift we saw from film cameras to digital. It’s cheaper, it’s smaller, and it scales way better.
When I look at who is actually using this tech, it’s a "who’s who" of heavy hitters. We aren't talking about speculative startups; we’re talking about +850 customers including:
> Retail/Logistics:
(John Deere)
> Government: NASA, US Army, US Navy, @anduriltech
If the Army and NASA trust your "eyes" to guide their hardware, you’ve probably got the best tech on the block.
Right now, the TAM is solid,
sit on around 4% of the market, but we’re only scratching the surface of a +20% CAGR in the immediate sensing market. However, the future potential TAM is where the "tenbagger" potential lives. As we move toward fully autonomous shipping, port automation, and mass-market vehicle safety, the ceiling for LiDAR basically disappears.
If you look at the chart,
has been beaten up lately. It’s down about 35% over the last six months.
The whole market is jittery about interest rates and oil.
They had a huge Q4, but some of it was a one-time royalty check. The "smart money" used that as an excuse to exit, but the actual product sales are still growing like crazy (shipped 25k+ units last year).
The company is debt-free with over $210M in cash. In Lynch terms: a company that has no debt can’t go bankrupt. They have a 7-year runway to just keep innovating even if the economy stays weird.
Final Thoughts
I’m treating
This is a conviction play.
This case requires patience. It won’t go to the moon tomorrow. But with their tech advantage and customer base, I truly believe
JPM is projecting 0 rate cuts in 2026 (Mar 19th).
Derivatives show~37% 0 rate cuts.
Here's the traditional winners and losers:
1. Banks / Stablecoins: $CRCL, $JPM, $BAC, $WFC
- Interest from treasury, CCs, mortgage
2. High Cash vs. MC: Berkshire < $BRK.B >, $ETOR, $VLN, and others
- Companies that sit on large piles of cash relative to MC, where interest rates make material difference to operational income.
- This is beneficial to a lot of brokerages, but also very nuanced eg. $HOOD.
3. Insurance: $PGR, $MET, $ALL
- Higher yields on bond portfolios
4. Value/Cyclical Stocks: $XOM, $CAT, $DE
- Strong cash flow today + underlying commodities boost as well.
Losers:
1. Telecommunications & Heavy Industrials: $T, $VZ, $ATUS
- Companies that carry massive debt loads to build out optic cables, 5G, etc.
2. Utilities: $NEE, $DUK, $SO, $XLU
- Utilities carry heavy debt to maintain power grids and partly bond proxies
3. Real Estate + REITs: $AMT, $O, $BXP
- Higher rates drive down the valuation of the physical properties themselves and harder borrowing for buying homes. Then government bonds > dividend yields.
4. Unprofitable / Speculative Tech: $ARKK
Nuanced:
Historically Mag7 like $NVDA, $AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN were neutral-winner as they were typically sitting on loads of cash.
But for the first time, some are going into debt for the AI buildout and are scaling like startups again (eg. $META 33%+ Y/Y revenue growth):
-> Cash-rich companies like $AAPL are likely to be fine, $MSFT + $GOOGL (largely funded by operational income)
-> While $META, $ORCL, and others may face more challenges (projected to take on debt long term)
However, despite short term volatility from projections + War in Iran:
One TACO could flip all the projections.
So, I would not bet on high interest rates or rate hikes or this trade.
And I don't think markets will either long term.
