Bloomberg ran the tungsten piece today. I laid this out last week before the mainstream press named a single beneficiary. $ALM $EQR.AX
Four things confirmed by the article that matter to the thesis:
- APT benchmark at $2,250/mtu. That is a 557% move since China added tungsten to its export control list in February 2025. Price was suppressed by state subsidies for years. Real price discovery is happening for the first time in a generation. $ALM $EQR.AX
- US authorities contacted $ALM last month regarding immediate material availability. This is not a future catalyst. Government procurement interest is present tense.
- BMO calls it the tightest commodity market in 12 years. Military tungsten consumption up 12% this year. Pellets do not come back. That supply destruction is permanent.
- NDAA Chinese tungsten ban takes effect January 1, 2027. Western producers have a defined, time-bounded window before policy forces the hand of every US defense contractor. The window is now.
- Running in parallel, the fertilizer leg remains intact. One third of globally traded fertilizer transits Hormuz, now effectively closed. $CF Industries made ATH this week, completely insulated from the chokepoint. Spring planting is not deferrable. Corn does not care about geopolitics.
Two commodities. One war. Both structural.
$ALM $EQR.AX $CF
NFA. DYOR.
