Jerry Capital (@jerrycap) on Surfaced

Last 12mo stats

592

mentions

71

tickers

535

posts

Jerry Capital

@jerrycapLong Research58.9k followers

Jerry Capital

@jerrycapLong Research58.9k followers

Past 12mo:592mentions71tickers535posts

$ASML· ASML Holding NV ADR

24 calls since Dec 2025show all

Loading price chart…

About this voice

@jerrycap posted 535 times over the past 12 months, distributing 592 cashtag mentions across 71 distinct tickers. The account's most frequently discussed holdings were $META with 107 mentions, $ASML with 93 mentions, and $GPN with 57 mentions. Recent activity through mid-July 2026 included commentary on semiconductor and enterprise software companies, with the most recent mention occurring on July 17, 2026.

The voice's posts reflect analysis-oriented commentary on individual equities. Recent observations included discussion of chip design tools companies and legacy enterprise software vendors. Over the 12-month period, @jerrycap maintained consistent engagement with technology sector names, with $META, $ASML, $GPN, $FOUR, and $AMZN representing the top five tickers by mention frequency.

AI-generated from tracked posts · updated Aug 16, 2026

Related voices

Evergreen Capital@evergreencap3

Leandro@invesquotes

Jose Najarro Stocks@josenajarro

Puru Saxena@saxena_puru

Recent calls

24 calls

@jerrycapJul 15, 2026 · 10:52 PM

"We lift ASML 2027/28 revenue to €56bn/72bn, GM to 56.2%/57.0%, and EPS to €53.6/75.3 (prior €48.7/67.4). Our 2028 EPS is 37% above consensus. Current share price implies only 20x 2028 EPS. Raising PT to €2500 based on 40x Q5-8 EPS." $ASML

@jerrycapJun 25, 2026 · 11:07 PM

$ASML Sell Discipline https://t.co/fug0lh6AgN

@jerrycapJun 6, 2026 · 7:37 PM

"Elon Musk to Attend $ASML's Private Tech Event to Discuss Terafab"

@jerrycapMay 26, 2026 · 5:06 PM

$ASML I read the note, and my reaction is: interesting, but absolutely not “ASML broken.” making a subtle argument that people will likely oversimplify into something much dumber: “Huawei found a way around EUV.” That is not actually what this says. What they’re really arguing is that if geometric transistor scaling becomes harder, system-level scaling can still drive major compute gains through latency reduction, advanced packaging, interconnect innovation, and architecture-level optimization. That’s a real idea. Nvidia already does this. AMD already does this. Intel is trying to do this. TSMC’s entire advanced packaging roadmap exists because this is where the industry is already going. So first principle: Tau is not evidence that China escaped semiconductor physics. It’s evidence that semiconductor scaling is becoming more holistic. The provocative part is Huawei’s claimed execution. Logic-on-logic stacking, sub-2 micron hybrid bonding pitch, major density gains, large power efficiency improvements, and aggressive cluster-scale compute ambitions—if real, that’s impressive. But the skepticism matters more than the marketing. Packaging leadership still sits with TSMC, thermals become brutal as you stack logic, yields get harder, manufacturing scale is uncertain, and China still lacks EUV. That’s the actual frame. So this is not “China wins.” It’s “China may have found a workaround vector.” That’s a huge distinction. For $ASML, the key question is whether this breaks semiconductor path dependence on lithography. I think only partially. Because even in the bullish interpretation, Huawei is still relying on advanced logic manufacturing. Those packaged systems still require chips. Those chips still require precision patterning. They still require overlay control, process fidelity, critical layers, and advanced manufacturing discipline. Lithography didn’t disappear. The form of scaling just changed. Instead of the old model where “smaller transistors automatically win,” the emerging model becomes “advanced transistors plus packaging plus interconnect plus architecture wins.” That does create a real $ASML bear case—but not the simplistic one. The true risk is not that ASML becomes irrelevant. The true risk is that lithography becomes a smaller percentage of total compute performance gains. If the industry gets 2x compute improvement through packaging and system architecture rather than 2x transistor density, then ASML’s share of value creation compresses. That matters. That’s a serious argument. But that is a very different claim than saying $ASML is broken. The other important angle is geopolitical. If China proves it can achieve “good enough” AI compute scaling without EUV, then the strategic power of export controls weakens. That’s meaningful. But “good enough for domestic sovereignty” is not the same thing as “frontier leadership.” A workaround born from constraint is not automatically a superior architecture. My bottom line is this: this is intellectually serious, but it does not kill the stronger $ASML thesis. It weakens the lazy thesis that all compute progress simply means more EUV boxes. But your actual thesis has always been deeper than that. Semiconductor progress remains deeply path dependent on manufacturing complexity, and complexity is increasing, not decreasing. The only real debate is whether $ASML continues capturing a large share of that complexity—or whether more of the economic value shifts toward packaging and interconnect players.

@jerrycapMay 21, 2026 · 3:39 PM

There really isn't a better company to own than $ASML. In comparison to the goated $ASML monopoly $TSM looks like it operates in perfect competition. $ASML "CEO Christophe Fouquet singles out Starlink as one of the most fascinating chip demand drivers he sees in the market today."

@jerrycapMay 20, 2026 · 5:29 PM

My second playthrough of cyberpunk got me long $ASML

@jerrycapMay 5, 2026 · 8:15 PM

I say $ASML raises prices on the memory guys until $ASML stock goes vertical and bends backwards like their customers.

@jerrycapApr 17, 2026 · 9:21 PM

$AMZN $ASML $CSU seems like a perfect three stock portfolio. There is a high probably all three are AI winners. But at worst you're hedged.

@jerrycapApr 13, 2026 · 6:28 PM

"model for global semiconductor demand in the range of $1.8-$2.2tr... points to a 2030E EPS range between €58.4 and €89.5 (mid-point €73.2), up from previously €52.5 to €73.8 (mid-point €62.6), We reiterate our Buy rating/Top pick with an unchanged PO of €1,598/US$1,886" $ASML

@jerrycapApr 10, 2026 · 2:25 PM

"Wolfe says WFE growth is tracking ~22–23% in CY26/27, driven by DRAM and leading-edge logic demand, with supply/demand imbalance likely persisting through ’28. The firm highlights cleanroom capacity—not demand—as the key constraint, limiting near-term upside but extending the cycle duration. Wolfe adds DRAM and logic wafers are expected to outstrip available capacity through ’27, pushing incremental spend into ’28. AMAT remains the top pick, with $ASML a close second, as both benefit from sustained AI-driven capex and extended spending visibility." - @TMTBreakout

@jerrycapApr 8, 2026 · 2:30 AM

$ASML could signal the need to increase capacity in 28 to >100 tools... progress on high-NA... likely enough for $TSM/SK Hynix to drive high-NA demand in '28E (15 tools) https://t.co/YsgsyxC7S0

@jerrycapMar 10, 2026 · 11:23 PM

Long AI Ramp Stocks $ASML https://t.co/NSz5D69Xze

@jerrycapFeb 23, 2026 · 8:42 PM

I own the machine that creates the agents $ASML https://t.co/itzWdUPao1

@jerrycapJan 28, 2026 · 11:55 AM

I didn't even know what memory was when the robot told me to buy $ASML https://t.co/MXvRQceG3B

@jerrycapJan 27, 2026 · 2:45 PM

New ATH for $ASML

@jerrycapJan 22, 2026 · 3:20 PM

"we estimate $ASML ’s 2027 EPS at €43.8, implying a 2027 P/E of 24.8x." reasonable for AI monopoly https://t.co/1JgWPza2EV

@jerrycapJan 20, 2026 · 1:50 PM

Time to sell as many $ASML machines as possible to China

@jerrycapJan 15, 2026 · 10:48 AM

Sell discipline on $ASML from the robot https://t.co/6JfBtgvr6G

@jerrycapJan 9, 2026 · 12:47 PM

@PythiaR @Breadcrumb_Cap well we get to capacity on what $ASML can produce I think its something like 80 machines. you can take the implied earnings at 80 machines and put 40x that. there's really no way to justify owning it passed that level. no magic upside will appear from there?

@jerrycapJan 8, 2026 · 12:40 AM

"It's cool finally seeing $ASML multiple compress, and it's funny because it's just in time for reacceleration" 🚀🚀🚀

@jerrycapJan 7, 2026 · 7:51 PM

@PythiaR @WaterworldCapi1 @evrgn11112231 why buy TSM which is going to zero when $ASML will be worth 2x when you gotta rebuild post war

@jerrycapJan 2, 2026 · 2:53 PM

Robot on $ASML at $1200 "This is not euphoria. This is fair-to-slightly-rich relative to base case, cheap relative to where the industry is actually headed."

@jerrycapDec 21, 2025 · 10:00 PM

@SpaceGrenadier @teortaxesTex this is the best part its just a time thing, by the time someone else does it the target is 10 to 15 years ahead. China is where $ASML is in early 2000s.

@jerrycapDec 16, 2025 · 1:29 PM

"Our analysis suggests that High NA could account for 15-20% of system sales by the end of the decade, driving a 3-5 percentage point increase in lithography intensity share" $ASML https://t.co/DkIYiMC8l4