$TOWA

@aleabitoredditMay 1, 2026 · 1:54 AM

Wow, names like $TOWA (6315) are super boring to watch… Especially since KR/TW markets are closed today. Only up ~11% so far. But like Hammond or Tower Semi… Towa seems like a pretty steady compounder up throughout the duration of new memory cycles. Bc it receives unavoidable capex inflows from $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung their monopoly status. At least Enplas has some volatility… (, they grew their AI test segment 225%+ operating profit y/y) Then "Mass production of lenses for 1.6T optical transceivers has launched." Pretty sure they’re sandbagging + have legacy drag confusing algorithms regarding AI segment acceleration. Good time to take a break from watching markets I guess.

@aleabitoredditApr 30, 2026 · 12:25 AM

Yeah... the more I look into things, $TOWA / $TOWCF (6315) at ~$1.34b looks like a sleeper beneficiary for HBM4 spend from SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU. It’s hyper cyclical with spending cycles. But we’re seeing hikes in capex spend across the board from memory makers. Not exactly a 4x type play... But my guess is that it should get materially re-rated from a spike in unavoidable inflows for the start of the new HBM4 memory cycle anyway. And they appear to be a largely forgotten beneficiary for this new cycle despite their monopoly in compression modeling processes. Hybrid bonding just removes one step in the process but requires Towa anyway (monopolies tend to get higher premiums) I also don't think this cycle is like the last due to how much memory companies have been printing recently? Just my thoughts, but if my guess is right... it should show up in earnings on the Monday 11th (Tokyo Time) as everyone’s building out HBM4 lines?

@aleabitoredditApr 29, 2026 · 9:40 PM

Monitoring the situation for you (testing/yields edition): $VIAV and $FORM earnings: Extremely Bullish So what does this mean? Names like $ONTO / $CAMT go brr. Throw in $TOWA (6315), since there's indication of aggressive memory production ramp. Names like Msscorps / $KEYS should go brrr. Broader upstream yields, test, validation, and inspection for both memory + optical ecosystem go heavily BRRR. And it's a leading indicator for $COHR, $FN, $LITE, and others if they're ramping up production. For $VIAV: -> $406.8M vs. $393M (beat) 42.8% Y/Y growth. -> $.27 EPS vs $0.2-$0.24 Guidance was $427m-$437m, indicating acceleration. For $FORM: -> $226M, 32% Y/Y, $.56 EPS vs. $.45 -> margins increased a TON to 49% (which indicates pricing power). -> Guidance was $.61 EPS, midpoint ~$240m revenue. "Record demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and stronger "Foundry & Logic networking applications" Basically the smaller yields/test ecosystem in general. BRRR.

@aleabitoredditApr 29, 2026 · 9:06 PM

@inversorBetico $TOWA biggest signal is SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung since this is upstream... and the big 3 increased capex projections + building out HMB4 so that capex does flow to Towa. MSSCORP more nuanced. This is for CPO, which is not volume ramped yet... You'd probably want to look at like $ASX and other signals. But they all get derived mainly from hyperscaler capex as an overarching umbrella, which was largely bullish today.

@aleabitoredditApr 29, 2026 · 4:40 PM

@johndoestocks Good question, $TOWA is still a must have so not a concern. Even with hybrid bonding end of decade hbm5, they might just lose one step of the process but remain a critical chokepoint