There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from
$OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON.
But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red.
From the history of Trump's tariffs
We know one thing.
Trump cares too much about the market:
$1.5T in proposed defense spending from
- $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs
to
- Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others.
is still the same.
Nothing in the AI buildout from
- $LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout
or
- $INTC, $SKY role in US domestic hardware
has changed.
We're seeing the largest buildup from drone, critical material stockpiles, AI buildout, Space scale-up, and Made in America supply chains in history.
My opinion is that this volatility is often a "valuation gift" since these are all empty threats. And the leaked messages between the EU/US leaders shows dialogue is taking place.
Trump is just doing his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric to see what can be negotiated.
And, of course, Trump views the S&P 500 as his real-time approval rating, which is why he's forcing so many rate cuts before midterm elections.
As US markets go red overnight, we're seeing the walk-back happen already.
And we'll likely see that full "trade-deal made" so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs.
