$PTLO quick value
I'm more of a skeptic on the idea for now, but open to other views...
1) Fast-casual restaurant chain with casual-dining unit economics (huge AUVs and decent restaurant margins)
2) PE owned from 2014 until IPO in 2021 - shares down >80% since then
3) AUVs are $8-9m with >20% restaurant margins... these are large footprints (9000sf) so sales per sf comparable to other fast-casual and casual chains
4) Big runway for new locations - 94 today (52% in IL) and targeting >900 TAM + 10-15% unit growth annually
5) Expansion was slow and steady from 2004-2013, accelerated under PE (2014-2021), and ramped even more since IPO - newer locations struggling
6) Unit economics showing in "core vs. non-core" markets - Chicagoland stores ~$9m AUV vs. non-Chicago at $5-6m - newbuilds targeting $5-6m AUV go forward
7) To combat these lower AUVs, PTLO testing smaller footprints (9000+ -> 7700 -> 6250 -> ??) - results are early innings
8) In Sep 2025 - CEO resigned + lowered FY25 guidance - now expecting 2 straight years of negative comps... hmm...
9) Since 2021 - revenue +$200m but EBITDA ~/- with comps now declining - seems they are at a crossroads?
10) Valuation so-so at 8x EBITDA with >3x leverage - large footprint stores = high fixed costs... consensus expects them to return to growth in 2026+
Shares look fairly valued IMO... granted, if comps turn the corner and/or they slow store growth, it could do well
It has potential as a "management change" situation depending on path taken there...
Hmm...
