$NATL
1) NCR spun off Atleos (NATL) in 2023
2) Laid out 2027 targets for 6% rev growth, 15% EBITDA growth, $500m FCF during inaugural investor day
3) Most/all sales & earnings growth coming from new-ish ATMaaS (ATM as a service) offering where bank customers fully outsource ATM hardware, software, ops, etc.
4) ATMaaS is more profitable and >2.5x more revenue than traditional ATM contracts... i.e. 2027 targets don't require market share gains
5) NATL is 20 months in and making progress... 2025 guide = 3-6% sales growth, 7-10% EBITDA growth, 21-27% EPS growth and FCF on cusp of major inflection
6) ATMaaS gaining momentum... sales growing 20-30% YoY and hit $250m ARR as of 2Q25
7) Balance sheet is getting better and crossing under 3x leverage in 3Q25 = early in capital allocation inflection... $200m buyback just authorized
8) Valuation still insanely cheap / tied to secular decline consensus view... NATL trades at 9-10x FY25 EPS est. and 6.5x FY27 consensus est. while peers DBD/BCO at 13-14x FY25 EPS
There aren't many 20-30% EPS growers trading at 10x earnings...
Hmm...